# Forecast and Tricast Betting Explained: UK Horse Racing 2026 _Forecasts and tricasts on UK horse racing: how dividends are calculated, when they beat each-way, and which operators handle them best._ *Source: [https://stablebet.co.uk/bookmakers/forecast-tricast-explained/](https://stablebet.co.uk/bookmakers/forecast-tricast-explained/) · last updated 2026-05-04* ## What Are Forecasts and Tricasts? A **forecast** is a bet on the first two finishers of a horse race in the correct order. A **tricast** extends that to the first three finishers. Get the order wrong and the bet loses, even if your horses fill the placings. Both bets settle as **dividends** — a payout calculated by the operator from a formula based on the starting prices of the placed horses, not at the prices you took. So unlike a win bet where you lock in 5/1 at placement and that's what you collect, a forecast or tricast pays whatever the algorithm produces at settlement. The dividend can be much larger or smaller than you'd expect from eyeballing the prices. Forecasts come in three formats: - **Straight forecast (SF)**: pick first and second in the correct order. Cheapest stake. - **Reverse forecast (RF)**: two bets covering 1-2 in either order. Doubles the stake. - **Combination forecast (CF)**: covers all permutations of three or more selections in the first two — stake × n × (n-1) for n selections. Tricasts work identically with three positions: - **Straight tricast** = correct 1-2-3. - **Combination tricast** = covers all permutations of three-plus selections; stake × n × (n-1) × (n-2). The bet is most rewarding in fields where the result is genuinely uncertain. A 12-runner handicap with three or four horses fancied at similar prices can produce forecast dividends of 50/1, 100/1, or higher — far in excess of any individual single bet's return. The flip side: hit rate is much lower than win or each-way betting, so forecasts work as small-stake satellite bets rather than core punting. ## How Forecasts and Tricasts Settle ### Computer Straight Forecast (CSF) and Tricast (TC) UK forecast settlement uses a formula called the **Computer Straight Forecast (CSF)**, run after the race off the published Industry SP and a number of additional adjustments (field size, beaten distance, place positions). The CSF dividend is published shortly after the result is confirmed. For tricasts, the equivalent is the **Tricast (TC)** dividend. Same principle: an algorithmic dividend computed from SP and result data, not from the prices you took. You'll see the CSF and TC dividends quoted on Racing Post results pages and on operator settlement screens. ### Worked example A 12-runner Saturday handicap. The 1st (10/1 SP), 2nd (8/1 SP) and 3rd (5/1 SP) fill the places. A £1 straight forecast on the 1st and 2nd correctly placed: - CSF dividend in this race ≈ 73.45 (typical for 10/1 + 8/1 in a 12-runner non-favourite finish). - Returns: £73.45 to a £1 stake. - Profit: £72.45. A £1 reverse forecast on the same two horses: - £2 total stake (£1 each direction). - Only the correct-order bet wins; the £1 wrong-direction bet loses. - Returns: £73.45 against £2 staked. Profit £71.45. A £1 straight tricast on the actual 1-2-3 result: - TC dividend might be ≈ 612.50. - Returns £612.50 to a £1 stake. Profit £611.50. The dividend can vary by 10-30% from the rough expectation depending on field-size and beaten-distance adjustments, but the order of magnitude is what matters. ### Combination forecasts and tricasts A **combination forecast** covers all permutations of N selections in the first two. With 3 selections, that's 3 × 2 = 6 permutations — so a £1 combination forecast across 3 horses costs £6. A **combination tricast** with N selections covers N × (N-1) × (N-2) permutations. With 4 selections, that's 4 × 3 × 2 = 24 permutations — £1 each = £24 total stake. Costs scale fast: 5 selections = 60 permutations. For most punters the sweet spot is a 3- or 4-horse combination forecast, which catches most realistic finishing orders without costing more than a comfortable stake. ### Stakes-only forecast (rare) Some operators offer a **"stakes-only forecast"** option that returns at SP × 1.5 or similar to flat-rate the dividend rather than running the CSF. This is rare on UK racing — it's more common on Tote pools. Worth checking the live operator screen before placing. ### Forecast on placed horses (uncommon) A handful of operators have run "forecast on the place positions" promotions — pay if your two selections fill 1-2 OR 2-3. These are promotional overlays rather than standard product. The default forecast bet is win-position only. ## Forecast / Tricast by Bookmaker ### Forecasts and tricasts handling Almost every UK operator handles straight forecasts and tricasts on every UK race. The mechanic — CSF and TC dividends settled at SP — is industry-standardised, so the operator doesn't really compete on the bet itself. They compete on: 1. **Stake liability**: how big a forecast or tricast they'll lay 2. **Combination cap**: max number of permutations in a single combination bet 3. **Promotional overlays**: festival-day forecast bonuses, money-back specials, "first-and-second" insurance 4. **App handling**: how cleanly the bet builds in mobile UX ### Bet365 — clean app, full coverage Bet365 handles straight, reverse and combination forecasts and tricasts on every UK and Irish race. Settlement is via CSF/TC at SP. The app's combination-forecast UX is cleaner than most competitors — you select 3-4 horses and it auto-shows the combination cost and theoretical max. ### Paddy Power — Bet Builder strength Paddy Power's Bet Builder doesn't currently support forecasts/tricasts (only allows individual win/place legs to combine into one bet), but the standard forecast/tricast tickets work as expected. **Money-Back if 2nd** promotions occasionally apply to the win-leg of a forecast — worth checking on big festival days. ### Betfred — competent, festival overlays Betfred handles standard forecasts and tricasts plus runs occasional festival-day overlays where the forecast dividend is enhanced or a "1-2-3 in any order" insurance applies. Otherwise standard CSF/TC settlement. ### Sky Bet, William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes — all standard Big-four-style chains all run forecasts and tricasts at standard SP-based dividends. Combination caps vary slightly but rarely matter at typical punter stakes. ### Star Sports — large stake friendly Star Sports lays large forecasts and tricasts that the chains will refuse. For phone bets in particular, Star Sports' trader desk accepts £200+ tricasts without flinching. The mainstream combination forecast/tricast tickets work normally; the difference is the trader desk for very-large pre-arranged stakes. ### The Tote — pool dividends, different mechanic The Tote runs **Exacta** (Tote forecast) and **Trifecta** (Tote tricast) as pool dividends — not algorithmic. The pool can produce much larger or smaller dividends than CSF/TC depending on which horses get backed in the pool. For very-rare 1-2-3 combinations the pool dividend usually beats CSF/TC; for common combinations the algorithmic dividend usually wins. The pool mechanic also means **early-pool decisions matter** — placing your Tote forecast at 11am for a 3.30pm race is structurally different to placing it 1 minute before off, because the pool composition shifts. UK Tote runs through Britbet at 19 ARC tracks from November 2025 and through the Tote at the rest. ## When Forecasts Beat Each-Way ### When forecasts beat each-way Forecasts beat each-way in a specific structural scenario: **you have strong views on which two horses fill the placings, but the order is genuinely uncertain.** If you can identify a 14-runner handicap where you're confident two specific horses are 1-2 in some order — perhaps a quick-ground specialist plus a course-and-distance winner in a soft race — a £1 reverse forecast costs £2 and pays the CSF dividend (typically 30/1 to 100/1 in such races). Each-way of either horse costs £20 (£10 each-way × the doubling) and pays at the place fraction. The forecast captures the precise outcome at higher leverage. The flip side: forecasts have **much lower hit rate** than each-way. Most attempts fail entirely. Each-way will land more often even if the EV is similar. Choose based on bankroll variance tolerance, not just expected return. ### When tricasts beat forecasts Tricasts beat forecasts only when you genuinely believe a specific horse will be 3rd. That's a much harder call — you're predicting one specific position rather than "in the placings somewhere." For most punters, the tricast is an entertainment bet, not a value bet. The leverage is huge but the hit rate is brutal. Combination tricasts (covering all permutations of 3-4 selections) preserve the leverage while widening the hit rate. A £0.50 combination tricast of 4 selected horses is £12 total stake — small enough to be entertainment, but with realistic-ish chance of landing if your 4 selections are genuinely the strongest in the field. ### When to avoid **Avoid forecasts on:** - Short-priced clear favourite + outsider 2nd. The dividend will be small and the each-way alternative is structurally better. - Big-field handicaps where you have no view on order. Going random is worse than not playing. - Fields with a strong second-favourite. The CSF dividend on a 4/1 + 5/1 finish is rarely worth the bet. **Avoid tricasts on:** - Anything you don't have a strong 1-2-3 view on. Random tricasts are worse than random forecasts. - Fields where the favourite is clear. Tricasts work in genuinely open races. ### Stake sizing rule Forecasts and tricasts are **satellite bets** — typically 5%-10% of bankroll spread across a small number of qualifying races per week. They're not the core bet. Each-way and singles do the heavy lifting; forecast/tricast adds occasional headline dividends without dominating bankroll variance. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### How is the forecast dividend calculated? The Computer Straight Forecast (CSF) is an industry-standard formula based on the Industry SPs of the placed horses, the field size, and result-quality adjustments. It's not run at SP exactly — the actual dividend is usually a bit higher than the multiplied SPs because of how the formula handles betting public's overround. ### What's the difference between a tricast and a Trifecta? A **tricast** is a fixed-odds-style bet settled on the bookmaker's TC dividend (algorithmic, based on SP). A **Trifecta** is the Tote pool equivalent — pari-mutuel, settled by the pool's actual money distribution. The Trifecta dividend can be much larger or smaller than the TC depending on how heavily the winning combination was backed in the pool. ### Can I do a forecast on every UK race? Most fixed-odds operators offer forecasts on every UK race with 3 or more declared runners. With 2 runners, forecasts aren't possible (or relevant). Tricasts typically need 4 or more runners — some operators 5+. ### What happens if there's a non-runner? Non-runners affect both the dividend (CSF/TC are recalculated against the new field size) and your bet (most operators void if your selected horse is a non-runner; some pro-rate by removing that selection from the combination). Check the operator's racing-rules page before placing. ### Can I combine forecast/tricast with each-way? Not directly — forecast and tricast are pre-defined bet types with their own settlement. The closest analogue is an **each-way single** plus a **straight forecast** placed separately on the same race. They settle independently. ### What does "rule 4" mean for forecasts? Standard Rule 4 deductions on the WIN portion of an each-way bet apply to win-only / each-way bets, not to forecasts. Forecasts settle at the CSF dividend which is computed AFTER the result is known and any non-runners removed — so Rule 4 isn't applied separately. A non-runner before the off recalculates the CSF dividend itself.