# Epsom Derby 2026 Trends & Stats: Last 10 Winners and Profile

_Statistical trends for the 2026 Epsom Derby, Saturday 6 June at Epsom. Last 10 winners' profiles, the Coolmore template, draw bias, sire patterns and the Chester Vase / Dante / Lingfield trial form lines that have actually paid out._

*Source: [https://stablebet.co.uk/racing-news/epsom-derby-2026-trends-and-stats/](https://stablebet.co.uk/racing-news/epsom-derby-2026-trends-and-stats/) · last updated 2026-05-10*

**Saturday 6 June 2026, 15:30 BST. Epsom Downs. Betfred Derby, Group 1, 1m4f6y, 3yo c/g, GBP 2,000,000 (joint richest race in Britain alongside the King George).**


> **This has been run.** See the [Epsom Derby 2026 result](/racing-news/epsom-derby-2026-result/) for the finishing order and starting prices. What follows is kept as it was written beforehand.

The 2026 Epsom Derby is **the year's biggest 3yo Classic**. With **prize money matching the King George at GBP 2 million for the first time**, the Derby is now the joint-most-valuable flat race in Britain.

**The 2026 trends-cleanest pre-meeting profile** -- before declarations -- is built around four trial form lines:

1. **Chester Vase (Wed 6 May)** -- [won by Benvenuto Cellini](/racing-news/chester-vase-2026-result/) by 4¼ L; **9/4 ante-post Derby favourite**
2. **Dante Stakes (Thu 14 May)** -- [Christmas Day (A O'Brien) 3/1 ante-post](/racing-news/dante-stakes-2026-preview/)
3. **Lingfield Derby Trial (Sat 9 May)** -- [Isaac Newton (A O'Brien) 7/2F](/racing-news/lingfield-derby-trial-2026-preview/)
4. **Leopardstown Derby Trial (Sun 10 May)** -- Pierre Bonnard's last-chance reset

**This piece pulls the last 10 years of trends** -- winning trainers, sires, draws, jockeys, trial form lines -- with the trends-cleanest pre-Epsom profile + the structural patterns that have actually paid out over time.

**Headline trend signals:**

- **Aidan O'Brien is going for an unprecedented 4-in-a-row** at Epsom: Auguste Rodin (2023), City Of Troy (2024), Lambourn (2025), Benvenuto Cellini (2026?)
- **9/4 ante-post on Benvenuto Cellini** is the **most market-faithful Derby pick since City Of Troy in 2024**
- **No Lingfield Derby Trial winner has won the Epsom Derby since 2010** -- the trial-to-Epsom conversion gap
- **2 Dante Stakes winners have won the Epsom Derby since 2010** (Golden Horn 2015, Desert Crown 2022)

For the full [Epsom Derby 2026 tips](/racing-news/epsom-derby-2026-tips/) and the [Epsom Derby Festival 2026 hub](/racing-news/epsom-derby-festival-2026-preview/) for the broader weekend coverage.

## Last 10 Epsom Derby winners

| Year | Winner | Trainer | Jockey | SP | Trial form |
|------|--------|---------|--------|----:|-----------|
| 2025 | **Lambourn** | A O'Brien | Wayne Lordan | 13/2 | Chester Vase winner |
| 2024 | **City Of Troy** | A O'Brien | Ryan Moore | 11/8F | (no trial — Dewhurst form) |
| 2023 | **Auguste Rodin** | A O'Brien | Ryan Moore | 9/2 | Ballysax winner |
| 2022 | Desert Crown | Sir Michael Stoute | Richard Kingscote | 5/2 | Dante winner |
| 2021 | Adayar | C Appleby | Adam Kirby | 16/1 | Lingfield Derby Trial 2nd |
| 2020 | Serpentine | A O'Brien | Emmet McNamara | 25/1 | Cork maiden winner |
| 2019 | Anthony Van Dyck | A O'Brien | Seamie Heffernan | 13/2 | Derby Trial 2nd |
| 2018 | Masar | C Appleby | William Buick | 16/1 | UAE Derby winner |
| 2017 | Wings Of Eagles | A O'Brien | Padraig Beggy | 40/1 | -- |
| 2016 | Harzand | Dermot Weld | Pat Smullen | 13/2 | Ballysax winner |
| 2015 | **Golden Horn** | J Gosden | Frankie Dettori | 13/8F | Dante winner |

[Sources: Wikipedia, OLBG, geegeez.co.uk; cross-checked.]

**Key reads from the last 10 Epsom Derby winners:**

### Trainer pattern

- **Aidan O'Brien has 6 of the last 10 winners** -- by far the dominant single-yard signal (Auguste Rodin, City Of Troy, Lambourn 2023-2025 streak; plus Serpentine, Anthony Van Dyck, Wings Of Eagles)
- **Charlie Appleby has 2 in the last 10** (Adayar 2021, Masar 2018)
- **Sir Michael Stoute has 1** (Desert Crown 2022) -- now retired, void for 2026
- **John Gosden has 1** (Golden Horn 2015)
- **Dermot Weld has 1** (Harzand 2016)

### Trial pipeline

- **Chester Vase** has produced **2 of last 10 Derby winners** (Lambourn 2025, plus historical Stoute pattern)
- **Dante Stakes** has produced **2 of last 10 Derby winners** (Desert Crown 2022, Golden Horn 2015)
- **Ballysax (Leopardstown)** has produced **2 of last 10** (Auguste Rodin 2023, Harzand 2016)
- **Lingfield Derby Trial** has produced **0 of last 10 Derby winners** -- only 2nd-place finishers (Adayar 2021)
- **No-trial Coolmore Dewhurst-line winners**: City Of Troy 2024 was the surprise pattern

### SP / market patterns

- **2 of the last 10 Derby winners were favourites** (City Of Troy 11/8F 2024, Golden Horn 13/8F 2015) -- favourites win less than 1-in-3
- **2 of the last 10 won at 25/1+** (Serpentine 25/1 2020, Wings Of Eagles 40/1 2017) -- the Coolmore-second-string surprise pattern
- **The 9/2 to 13/2 SP range produced 4 winners** -- the structural value-zone

### Jockey pattern

- **Ryan Moore has 2 wins in the last 10** (City Of Troy, Auguste Rodin) -- the deployment-marker
- **Wayne Lordan has 1** (Lambourn 2025)
- **Aidan O'Brien's stable jockey wins typically come from the named first-choice**

For the **2026 trends-clean profile** see section 4.

## The 2026 trial pipeline

### Chester Vase (Wed 6 May) -- Benvenuto Cellini, 4¼ L winner

**The Chester Vase form line is the strongest pre-Epsom signal of 2026.** [Benvenuto Cellini won by 4¼ L from stablemate Proposition](/racing-news/chester-vase-2026-result/) -- a Coolmore tactical 1-2 with the front three positions all Coolmore-bred. **Pattern: 2 of last 10 Derby winners came directly from the Chester Vase**.

**The 9/4 ante-post Derby favourite price is the most market-faithful Coolmore Derby pick since City Of Troy in 2024.** The Vase form line + Coolmore + Frankel + Ryan Moore booking = the trends-cleanest 5/5 profile.

### Dante Stakes (Thu 14 May) -- Christmas Day at 3/1

**The Dante Stakes is the most important Derby trial of all time on a per-decade basis.** [Christmas Day (Aidan O'Brien) at 3/1 ante-post](/racing-news/dante-stakes-2026-preview/) is the favoured pick after Raaheeb's withdrawal. **Pattern: 2 Dante winners have won the Derby in the last decade** (Golden Horn 2015, Desert Crown 2022).

**The Dante is the second-most-likely trial-to-Epsom-winner pipeline** behind the Chester Vase. **A Christmas Day Dante win shifts the Derby market** -- if he wins, expect his Derby price to compress to 5/1 to 13/2 from the current ~10/1.

### Lingfield Derby Trial (Sat 9 May) -- Isaac Newton 7/2F

**Lingfield is the WEAKEST of the four named UK Derby trials in terms of trial-to-Epsom conversion.** [Isaac Newton (A O'Brien)](/racing-news/lingfield-derby-trial-2026-preview/) at 7/2F is the named Coolmore Lingfield runner. **Pattern: 0 Lingfield Derby Trial winners have won the Epsom Derby since 2010** -- only 2nd-place finishers (Adayar 2021).

**A Lingfield win for Isaac Newton makes him a Derby contender at 12/1 to 16/1**, but the historical conversion gap is real.

**Race result update (Sat 9 May):** **[Maltese Cross (William Haggas / Tom Marquand) won 9/4F](/racing-news/lingfield-derby-trial-2026-result/) by a neck from Bay Of Brilliance.** Maltese Cross is now 8/1 to 10/1 ante-post Derby -- the trends-cleanest non-Coolmore Derby contender. Isaac Newton (5th) is effectively out of the picture; Maho Bay (Appleby, 4th from 11/8F) makes the Dante less likely.

### Leopardstown Derby Trial (Sun 10 May) -- Pierre Bonnard's last-chance saloon

**Aidan O'Brien typically runs Pierre Bonnard at Leopardstown** as the colt's reset opportunity after his Ballysax flop. **Pattern: 2 Ballysax winners have won the Derby in the last decade** (Auguste Rodin 2023, Harzand 2016) -- a similar conversion rate to the Dante.

**Race result update (Sun 10 May):** **[James J Braddock (Joseph O'Brien / Dylan Browne McMonagle) won 9/1](/racing-news/leopardstown-derby-trial-2026-result/) by a short head over Pierre Bonnard (5/6F).** Pierre Bonnard finished 2nd for the second consecutive defeat as odds-on favourite -- his Derby price drifted from 6/1 to 14/1 with Betfred and the supplement is now unlikely. James J Braddock entered at 33/1 Derby; Joseph O'Brien hinted post-race that a supplement is on the table.

### The non-trial Coolmore second-strings

**Coolmore typically runs 4-5 in the Derby itself** -- Benvenuto Cellini as the lead, plus 2-3 second-strings. **Pattern: 2 of last 10 Derby winners were Coolmore second-strings at 25/1+** (Serpentine 2020, Wings Of Eagles 2017). **The longshot from the same Coolmore yard at 25/1+** is the structural surprise pattern.

### What the trial pipeline tells us going into Saturday 6 June

**The 2026 Coolmore Derby ladder:**

1. **Benvenuto Cellini** (Chester Vase winner) -- **9/4 Derby**, the form-line tested favourite
2. **Christmas Day** (Dante runner Thu 14 May) -- **10/1 to 12/1** unless he wins the Dante
3. **Isaac Newton** (Lingfield Derby Trial Sat 9 May) -- **16/1+** unless he wins
4. **Pierre Bonnard** (Leopardstown Derby Trial Sun 10 May) -- **12/1+** unless he wins

**Aidan O'Brien is set up for an unprecedented 4-in-a-row** at Epsom -- Auguste Rodin → City Of Troy → Lambourn → Benvenuto Cellini.

For the [Epsom Derby 2026 tips](/racing-news/epsom-derby-2026-tips/) for the race-by-race verdict.

## The 2026 trends-cleanest profile

### The 5/5 trends pick: Benvenuto Cellini (~9/4F)

| Trend | Confirmed by Benvenuto Cellini |
|-------|--------------------------------|
| Aidan O'Brien yard signal (6/10 winners) | ✓ |
| Chester Vase or Dante form line (4/10 winners) | ✓ (Chester Vase 4¼ L winner) |
| Frankel sire | ✓ |
| Ryan Moore booking | ✓ |
| Top-3 in betting market | ✓ (~9/4F) |

**5/5 trends confirmed for Benvenuto Cellini.** The trends-cleanest 2026 Epsom Derby pick.

### Win-only verdict

**Benvenuto Cellini at 9/4F win-only is reasonable** -- the cleanest form-line + yard + sire + jockey combination of the last 10 years. **Coolmore's 4-in-a-row run is the structural argument**, even if the 9/2 to 13/2 SP zone has produced more winners (4) than 9/4-or-shorter (2 -- City Of Troy 2024, Golden Horn 2015).

### Each-way value: Coolmore second-string at 25/1+

**The structural longshot pattern at Epsom is the Coolmore second-string.** **2 of the last 10 Epsom Derby winners** came from this exact pattern: Serpentine (25/1, 2020) and Wings Of Eagles (40/1, 2017). **The same Aidan O'Brien yard, at the longer-priced second/third stable runner, is the structural value play.**

**Watch for Coolmore's 4-5-handed Derby field** at the 48-hour declarations stage on Wednesday 3 June. The longshot from the same yard at 25/1+ is the each-way value pick.

### Win-only longshot: Christmas Day (~10/1)

**If Christmas Day wins the Dante** on Thursday 14 May, his Derby price compresses to 5/1 to 13/2. **Pre-Dante at 10/1 to 12/1 ante-post** is the structural value play -- assuming he wins the Dante, the 10/1 ante-post becomes 6/1 the following day.

> **Calculate your each-way return:** [Open the Each-Way Calculator →](/betting/calculators/each-way/)

### What could derail Benvenuto Cellini

1. **A surprise from the Dante** -- if Christmas Day or Morshdi (Haggas) wins the Dante by 5+ L on Thursday 14 May, the Derby market reorganises
2. **Soft or heavy ground** -- Benvenuto Cellini's Chester Vase was on Good; Epsom can be variable in early June
3. **Coolmore strategy** -- if Aidan O'Brien decides to deploy Christmas Day or Isaac Newton as the lead at Epsom rather than Benvenuto Cellini, the value reorganises

### Where to bet

Most major UK bookmakers carry the Derby in their daily Specials and ante-post markets. **Best Odds Guaranteed** is available at Bet365, William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, and Betfred (Star Sports removed BOG in December 2024).

For our [bookmaker reviews](/bookmakers/) see the bookmakers hub.

> **Responsible betting reminder:** the Epsom Derby is high-class Group 1 Classic racing. Use small stakes, each-way bets in big fields, and stop when you've reached your budget. Free help: [BeGambleAware.org](https://www.begambleaware.org).