Forecast and Tricast Bets

Forecast and tricast bets are about predicting the exact order of finish. You're not just picking a winner—you're naming the 1st and 2nd (forecast) or 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (tricast). Get it right and the dividends can be huge. Get it wrong and you've lost your stake. They're popular on British and Irish racing, especially with the Tote, and understanding how they work will help you decide when they're worth a punt.

What Is a Forecast?

A forecast (also called a CSF—Computer Straight Forecast, or exacta in some markets) is a bet on the first two horses home in the correct order. Horse A must win, Horse B must be second. If they finish 1st and 2nd but in the wrong order (B wins, A second), you lose. Example: You bet a £1 straight forecast on Horse A to beat Horse B. Result: A wins, B second. You're paid the forecast dividend. Result: B wins, A second. You get nothing.

Straight vs Reversed Forecast

Straight Forecast

You name the exact order: A 1st, B 2nd. Only that combination pays.

Reversed Forecast (Reverse Forecast, RF)

You're betting on A and B to finish 1st and 2nd in either order. A first and B second pays. B first and A second also pays. You're effectively placing two straight forecasts (A-B and B-A) in one bet, so the stake is typically doubled—e.g. £1 reversed = £1 on A-B + £1 on B-A. Reversed forecasts are safer but pay half the dividend of a straight forecast when you win (because you've staked twice). They suit when you're confident two horses will dominate but unsure which will win.

What Is a Tricast?

A tricast is a bet on the first three horses home in the correct order. Horse A 1st, Horse B 2nd, Horse C 3rd. Any other order—including the right three horses in wrong positions—loses. Example: £1 tricast: A-B-C. If the result is A, B, C: you're paid the tricast dividend. If it's A, C, B: you lose. Tricasts are harder to land than forecasts but pay much bigger dividends. A £1 tricast can return £50, £200, or £1,000+ depending on the race and the odds of the horses involved.

Where Can You Bet Forecasts and Tricasts?

The Tote (Pool Betting)

The Tote is the main operator for forecasts and tricasts in the UK. All stakes go into a pool; the Tote takes a percentage; the remainder is shared among winning tickets. Dividends are declared after the race and vary with pool size and how many people picked the same combination. Typical dividends (rough guides):

• Forecast: £5–£50 for a £1 stake in a competitive race. Favourites 1-2 might pay £3–£8. Two outsiders might pay £50–£200+.
• Tricast: £20–£500+ for a £1 stake. Favourite 1-2-3 might pay £15–£40. Three outsiders could pay four figures. These are illustrative—actual dividends depend entirely on the race.

Fixed-Odds Bookmakers

Some bookmakers offer fixed-odds forecasts and tricasts. You get a price at the time of the bet, and that's what you're paid regardless of the pool. This can be better when you've found a combination the bookmaker has underpriced, or when you want certainty. It can be worse when the pool would have paid more. Compare before you bet.

How to Calculate Forecast and Tricast Value

With pool betting, you can't know your return in advance. But you can estimate:

• Straight forecast: Think of it as "win odds for A" × "place odds for B (given A wins)". The actual pool dividend reflects how much was staked on that combination.
• Tricast: Even more variables. The dividend reflects the combined probability of that exact 1-2-3 and how much was in the pool. A useful rule of thumb: if the favourite wins and the second favourite is second, the forecast dividend is usually modest (lots of people back that). If two outsiders fill the first two places, the dividend can be large (fewer back it).

When Forecasts and Tricasts Make Sense

You've Nailed the Exact Order

Sometimes you have a strong view: "Horse A will win, Horse B will chase him home." A straight forecast captures that. If you're right, you're paid more than a simple win bet on A.

Two-Horse Race

In a race where only two horses have a realistic chance, a reversed forecast covers both outcomes. You're effectively saying "one of these two wins, the other is second." The dividend won't be huge, but your chance of winning is higher than a straight forecast.

Tricast in Wide-Open Handicaps

In a 20-runner handicap, the tricast is a lottery—but the dividends can be enormous. If you have a strong view on three horses filling the frame (even if you're unsure of the order), you could try a tricast perm—multiple combinations covering different orders. This gets expensive quickly; see our multiples and perms guide for how permutation bets work.

Small Stakes, Big Potential

Forecasts and tricasts are often bet in £1 or £2 units. The idea is to risk little for a chance at a big return. That's a reasonable approach—as long as you're not overdoing it with multiple combinations.

When to Avoid

Chasing Big Dividends

Don't bet tricasts on random outsiders hoping for a monster payout. The probability of landing a tricast with three 20/1 shots is tiny. The dividend might be £500, but you'll lose many times before you hit.

When Win or Each-Way Would Be Better

If you're confident one horse will win, a simple win bet is often better value. Forecasts and tricasts add complexity and usually require a larger effective stake (especially with perms) to cover your opinions properly.

Summary

Forecasts and tricasts are for punters who want to predict the exact order of finish. Straight forecasts pay more but require the correct 1-2. Reversed forecasts cover both orders for a higher stake. Tricasts extend the concept to the first three. The Tote's pool betting means dividends vary; fixed-odds bookmakers offer certainty. Use them when you have a clear view on the order—and keep stakes small. The occasional big win is the aim; don't rely on them as a core strategy. For more on the basics of win and place betting, see our win, place, and show guide.