Forecast and Tricast Betting Explained — UK Horse Racing 2026

Computer Straight Forecast (CSF) and Tricast (TC)

UK forecast settlement uses a formula called the Computer Straight Forecast (CSF), run after the race off the published Industry SP and a number of additional adjustments (field size, beaten distance, place positions). The CSF dividend is published shortly after the result is confirmed.

For tricasts, the equivalent is the Tricast (TC) dividend. Same principle: an algorithmic dividend computed from SP and result data, not from the prices you took.

You'll see the CSF and TC dividends quoted on Racing Post results pages and on operator settlement screens.

Worked example

A 12-runner Saturday handicap. The 1st (10/1 SP), 2nd (8/1 SP) and 3rd (5/1 SP) fill the places.

A £1 straight forecast on the 1st and 2nd correctly placed:

• CSF dividend in this race ≈ 73.45 (typical for 10/1 + 8/1 in a 12-runner non-favourite finish).
• Returns: £73.45 to a £1 stake.
• Profit: £72.45.

A £1 reverse forecast on the same two horses:

• £2 total stake (£1 each direction).
• Only the correct-order bet wins; the £1 wrong-direction bet loses.
• Returns: £73.45 against £2 staked. Profit £71.45.

A £1 straight tricast on the actual 1-2-3 result:

• TC dividend might be ≈ 612.50.
• Returns £612.50 to a £1 stake. Profit £611.50.

The dividend can vary by 10-30% from the rough expectation depending on field-size and beaten-distance adjustments, but the order of magnitude is what matters.

Combination forecasts and tricasts

A combination forecast covers all permutations of N selections in the first two. With 3 selections, that's 3 × 2 = 6 permutations — so a £1 combination forecast across 3 horses costs £6.

A combination tricast with N selections covers N × (N-1) × (N-2) permutations. With 4 selections, that's 4 × 3 × 2 = 24 permutations — £1 each = £24 total stake. Costs scale fast: 5 selections = 60 permutations.

For most punters the sweet spot is a 3- or 4-horse combination forecast, which catches most realistic finishing orders without costing more than a comfortable stake.

Stakes-only forecast (rare)

Some operators offer a "stakes-only forecast" option that returns at SP × 1.5 or similar to flat-rate the dividend rather than running the CSF. This is rare on UK racing — it's more common on Tote pools. Worth checking the live operator screen before placing.

Forecast on placed horses (uncommon)

A handful of operators have run "forecast on the place positions" promotions — pay if your two selections fill 1-2 OR 2-3. These are promotional overlays rather than standard product. The default forecast bet is win-position only.

Forecasts and tricasts handling

Almost every UK operator handles straight forecasts and tricasts on every UK race. The mechanic — CSF and TC dividends settled at SP — is industry-standardised, so the operator doesn't really compete on the bet itself. They compete on:

1. Stake liability: how big a forecast or tricast they'll lay
2. Combination cap: max number of permutations in a single combination bet
3. Promotional overlays: festival-day forecast bonuses, money-back specials, "first-and-second" insurance
4. App handling: how cleanly the bet builds in mobile UX

Bet365 — clean app, full coverage

Bet365 handles straight, reverse and combination forecasts and tricasts on every UK and Irish race. Settlement is via CSF/TC at SP. The app's combination-forecast UX is cleaner than most competitors — you select 3-4 horses and it auto-shows the combination cost and theoretical max.

Paddy Power — Bet Builder strength

Paddy Power's Bet Builder doesn't currently support forecasts/tricasts (only allows individual win/place legs to combine into one bet), but the standard forecast/tricast tickets work as expected. Money-Back if 2nd promotions occasionally apply to the win-leg of a forecast — worth checking on big festival days.

Betfred — competent, festival overlays

Betfred handles standard forecasts and tricasts plus runs occasional festival-day overlays where the forecast dividend is enhanced or a "1-2-3 in any order" insurance applies. Otherwise standard CSF/TC settlement.

Sky Bet, William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes — all standard

Big-four-style chains all run forecasts and tricasts at standard SP-based dividends. Combination caps vary slightly but rarely matter at typical punter stakes.

Star Sports — large stake friendly

Star Sports lays large forecasts and tricasts that the chains will refuse. For phone bets in particular, Star Sports' trader desk accepts £200+ tricasts without flinching. The mainstream combination forecast/tricast tickets work normally; the difference is the trader desk for very-large pre-arranged stakes.

The Tote — pool dividends, different mechanic

The Tote runs Exacta (Tote forecast) and Trifecta (Tote tricast) as pool dividends — not algorithmic. The pool can produce much larger or smaller dividends than CSF/TC depending on which horses get backed in the pool. For very-rare 1-2-3 combinations the pool dividend usually beats CSF/TC; for common combinations the algorithmic dividend usually wins.

The pool mechanic also means early-pool decisions matter — placing your Tote forecast at 11am for a 3.30pm race is structurally different to placing it 1 minute before off, because the pool composition shifts. UK Tote runs through Britbet at 19 ARC tracks from November 2025 and through the Tote at the rest.

When forecasts beat each-way

Forecasts beat each-way in a specific structural scenario: you have strong views on which two horses fill the placings, but the order is genuinely uncertain.

If you can identify a 14-runner handicap where you're confident two specific horses are 1-2 in some order — perhaps a quick-ground specialist plus a course-and-distance winner in a soft race — a £1 reverse forecast costs £2 and pays the CSF dividend (typically 30/1 to 100/1 in such races). Each-way of either horse costs £20 (£10 each-way × the doubling) and pays at the place fraction. The forecast captures the precise outcome at higher leverage.

The flip side: forecasts have much lower hit rate than each-way. Most attempts fail entirely. Each-way will land more often even if the EV is similar. Choose based on bankroll variance tolerance, not just expected return.

When tricasts beat forecasts

Tricasts beat forecasts only when you genuinely believe a specific horse will be 3rd. That's a much harder call — you're predicting one specific position rather than "in the placings somewhere." For most punters, the tricast is an entertainment bet, not a value bet. The leverage is huge but the hit rate is brutal.

Combination tricasts (covering all permutations of 3-4 selections) preserve the leverage while widening the hit rate. A £0.50 combination tricast of 4 selected horses is £12 total stake — small enough to be entertainment, but with realistic-ish chance of landing if your 4 selections are genuinely the strongest in the field.

When to avoid

Avoid forecasts on:

• Short-priced clear favourite + outsider 2nd. The dividend will be small and the each-way alternative is structurally better.
• Big-field handicaps where you have no view on order. Going random is worse than not playing.
• Fields with a strong second-favourite. The CSF dividend on a 4/1 + 5/1 finish is rarely worth the bet.

Avoid tricasts on:

• Anything you don't have a strong 1-2-3 view on. Random tricasts are worse than random forecasts.
• Fields where the favourite is clear. Tricasts work in genuinely open races.

Stake sizing rule

Forecasts and tricasts are satellite bets — typically 5%-10% of bankroll spread across a small number of qualifying races per week. They're not the core bet. Each-way and singles do the heavy lifting; forecast/tricast adds occasional headline dividends without dominating bankroll variance.