Grand National 2026 Going Report & Weather: Conditions for Saturday

Current Going at Aintree

Grand National Course — Updated Friday 10 April

The official going on the Grand National Course is Good to Soft (Soft in places). The clerk of the course has reported an even surface across both circuits with no firm patches. Selective watering earlier in the week has produced a consistent base, and the fences are jumping well according to reports from Thursday's opening day.

Going stick reading (Thursday 9 April): 5.8 on the Grand National Course, 6.2 on the Mildmay Course. (Lower number = softer ground. A reading of 5.8 is consistent with Good to Soft and is near the middle of the optimal band for the race.)

Rail Positions

• Fences 1-16 (first circuit): Standard position
• Fences 17-30 (second circuit): Standard position
• No rail movements planned for Saturday

How the Week Is Playing

Thursday's card ran on Good ground on the Mildmay Course, slightly faster than the Grand National Course. The times on Thursday suggested a fair, galloping surface — no advantage to frontrunners or hold-up horses specifically.

Friday's card (Ladies Day, Mildmay Course) is expected to run on similar ground. Light overnight rain on Thursday-Friday added slightly to the moisture content but has not changed the official description.

Historical Context

Good to Soft is historically the most common going description for the Grand National. Eleven of the last twenty runnings have been on Good to Soft, making it the fair reference ground for form analysis. Horses with proven Good to Soft form on this course are at an advantage; horses whose best form is on fast ground need to prove they can act on a slightly softer surface.

Weather Forecast for Saturday 11 April

Liverpool / Aintree — Saturday Forecast

The forecast for Aintree on Saturday 11 April is mostly dry with scattered showers possible in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to peak around 13°C, with a light westerly wind of 8-12mph.

Hour-by-Hour Summary

| Time | Conditions | Temperature | Wind | |------|-----------|-------------|------| | 9:00am | Overcast, dry | 8°C | 6mph W | | 12:00pm | Sunny intervals | 11°C | 9mph W | | 3:00pm | Sunny intervals, small risk of shower | 13°C | 11mph W | | 5:15pm (GN) | Cloud cover, dry | 12°C | 10mph W | | 7:00pm | Clearing | 10°C | 8mph W |

What This Means for the Going

• No significant rain expected before the race. The ground will not soften further, and may even dry slightly on the top by race time.
• Likely going for Saturday: Good to Soft, possibly Good in places if the afternoon stays dry.
• Wind: A light westerly wind runs across the course from left to right. This is the most common Aintree wind direction and has minimal effect on the race. It can slightly assist horses jumping the Canal Turn (which requires a sharp left-hand bend after fence 8).

What to Watch

• Morning inspection (Saturday 10am): If the ground description is upgraded to "Good" by the clerk, fast-ground horses become more interesting. If it stays at "Good to Soft", form on softer ground is the safer guide.
• Late afternoon rain risk: A shower in the early afternoon would soften the ground slightly and favour stamina-heavy horses. This is a low probability scenario but worth monitoring.

Race-Day Ground Announcement

The official going description is typically confirmed by the clerk of the course at around 10:00am on Saturday after a final walk of the course. Check the ITV Racing build-up or the BHA going reports for the definitive description before placing your final bet.

How the Ground Affects Each Type of Runner

Good to Soft — the Fair Middle Ground

Good to Soft is the "neutral" going for the Grand National. It slightly favours stamina over pure speed, rewards horses that jump efficiently, and does not unfairly punish any specific type of runner. This is the going condition that most of the top-weighted horses want — it gives them a fair chance against lower-weighted rivals without the ground becoming a leveller.

Horses that like Good to Soft:

• Iroko (finished 4th in 2025 on Good to Soft, form line checks out)
• Grangeclare West (placed in 2025 on similar going)
• Jagwar (proven at Cheltenham on Good to Soft)

If the Ground Goes Soft

If overnight rain adds up and the going becomes genuinely Soft, the picture changes:

• Top weights struggle. Horses carrying 11st 4lb+ lose significant ground in testing conditions over 4m 2f. A heavy weight in deep ground is the toughest combination in jumps racing.
• Proven mud lovers come into play. Horses with specific Soft or Heavy ground form become clear value plays.
• Staying power outweighs class. A lower-class horse with genuine staying power often outruns its odds in bottomless ground.

If the Ground Goes Good or Good to Firm

If the afternoon stays dry and the sun comes out, the ground could dry to Good by race time:

• Faster horses with tactical speed come into play. Front-runners who might have tired in Soft ground can now last the trip.
• Older horses are less disadvantaged. 11- and 12-year-olds who can no longer handle deep ground get their best chance here.
• First-time National horses are slightly more interesting. Fast ground produces a "fairer" race where jumping efficiency matters more than pure stamina grind.

The Wind Factor

A strong wind — 20mph or more — can materially affect the race. Aintree's flat, exposed layout means there is nowhere to hide from a crosswind, and horses running wide at the Canal Turn can lose significant ground.

For Saturday, the forecast is a light 10mph westerly, which is benign. No special adjustments needed.

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Bottom Line for Saturday

Based on the Friday forecast, expect Good to Soft going at the start of the Grand National with a slight possibility of drying to Good. This favours the main contenders in the market — Iroko, Grangeclare West, and Jagwar all have proven form on this type of ground.

For our full 2026 selections, see our Grand National tips guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the going at Aintree right now?

Good to Soft (Soft in places) on the Grand National Course as of Friday 10 April. This is expected to hold for Saturday's race, with a small possibility of drying to Good if the afternoon is sunny.

Could the going change before Saturday?

Only slightly. The forecast is for mostly dry weather through Friday and Saturday. A late afternoon shower would soften the ground marginally, but significant rain (enough to move the going description to Soft or Heavy) is not expected.

What going does the Grand National favourite prefer?

Most of the current ante-post favourites — Iroko, Grangeclare West, Jagwar — have their best form on Good to Soft, which is why the market has them prominent. The current forecast is consistent with their preferred conditions.

Does the going affect each-way picks differently?

Yes. If the ground dries to Good, faster types gain ground on stamina-first horses. If it softens, the opposite is true. For each-way punters, the safest strategy is to back horses whose form works across multiple going descriptions rather than specialists who need one specific surface.

When is the official going confirmed?

The clerk of the course typically confirms the final going description by 10:00am on race day after a final walk of the course. ITV Racing announces it during the morning build-up, and the BHA publishes it on their going reports page.

What happens if heavy rain hits on Saturday morning?

Unlikely based on the forecast, but if it did the going could move to Soft. In that case, lighter-weighted stayers with proven soft-ground form become much stronger. Watch the market — any horse shortening significantly on Saturday morning is responding to ground news.

Can the Grand National be postponed due to weather?

In theory yes, but only in extreme conditions. A waterlogged course would cause postponement, as would dense fog preventing safe racing. Neither is on the forecast for 2026. The race has only been postponed or cancelled a handful of times in its 180+ year history.