Grand National 2026 Longshots: Big-Priced Horses With a Chance

Six Longshots for the 2026 Grand National

1. Stumptown (Each-Way, 20/1)

Gavin Cromwell's Stumptown won the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March — the exact race that used to produce Tiger Roll's peak form before his Grand National wins. Cross Country form has historically transferred excellently to Aintree because the skill set is identical: jumping unusual fences, staying 3m+, and handling a changing gallop.

He carries 10st 11lb, which is in the optimal weight band. His trainer has openly targeted Aintree with him all season. At 20/1 each-way with five places, he represents the best value in the middle of the market.

Why he can hit the frame: Ideal weight, proven stayer, race-fit after Cheltenham, trainer confident.

Risk: First-time National runner. Aintree fences are different from Cheltenham's cross-country course.

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2. Perceval Legallois (Each-Way, 22/1)

Gordon Elliott's Perceval Legallois is the kind of horse Elliott traditionally wins Nationals with — a dour stayer who grinds out results over extreme distances. He was 5th in the 2025 Grand National and is now 4lb better off at the weights.

At 10st 9lb he is well in with the top weights and has a full year of National experience. That combination — course form plus a weight concession — has produced several recent Grand National placings at big prices.

Why he can hit the frame: Course form from 2025, lenient weight, experienced stayer.

Risk: Has to improve on last year's 5th to win outright. More of a place play than a winning chance.

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3. Mr Incredible (Each-Way, 25/1)

Willie Mullins' Mr Incredible was second in the 2024 Grand National and ran a bold race in 2025 before fading. He is now 9 years old — peak age — and has been freshened up by Mullins specifically for this race.

His weight of 10st 12lb is ideal and he has ridden the Aintree fences twice. The concern is his tendency to take bold leaps at the big fences, which can leave him exposed to errors. But bold jumpers win Grand Nationals.

Why he can hit the frame: Course form, ideal weight, peak age, top stable.

Risk: Erratic jumping under pressure.

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4. Chemical Energy (Each-Way, 28/1)

Gordon Elliott's second string. Chemical Energy won the 2025 Munster National at Limerick in a fast time and has been aimed at Aintree since. His mark of 148 puts him on a realistic weight (10st 7lb) and he is the type of horse — middle-distance staying chaser with tactical speed — that Elliott has won previous Nationals with.

Why he can hit the frame: Light weight, genuine stayer, in-form connections.

Risk: Not the stable's first string, which usually means the better jockey goes elsewhere.

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5. Twig (Each-Way, 33/1)

Nicky Henderson's Twig is the British hope. Henderson has not trained a Grand National winner since State Of Play in 2009, but his runners are always fit for Aintree and Twig has the profile of a National horse: 8-year-old, 10st 5lb, staying chaser.

At 33/1 each-way with five places, the price reflects the stable's relative inexperience at Aintree rather than the horse's chance. A Henderson stayer off a light weight is exactly the type of horse that outruns its odds.

Why he can hit the frame: Young, lightly raced, carries feather weight, trainer out to prove a point.

Risk: No previous National experience. Henderson's Aintree strike rate is modest.

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6. I Am Maximus (Each-Way, 14/1)

The 2024 Grand National winner. Willie Mullins' I Am Maximus won the race 18 months ago and is attempting to become the first horse since Red Rum to win the race twice in three years. He carries top weight (11st 12lb), which is the main reason his price is 14/1 rather than 7/1.

He is a genuine each-way play for anyone who believes in class over handicap marks. The last horse to win carrying above 11st 8lb was Many Clouds in 2015; the last before that was Red Rum. It is a hard ask, but not impossible.

Why he can hit the frame: Proven winner, peak form, top stable.

Risk: The weight. History says top weights cannot give away this much in a Grand National.

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Responsible betting reminder: Each-way bets on longshots are the sensible way to follow the Grand National at big prices. Set a budget for the day, stick to small stakes (£2-£5 each-way), and spread your bets across 2-3 selections rather than putting everything on one. For Grand National bookmaker offers, see our offers page.

Why Longshots Win the Grand National

The Grand National is structurally different from almost every other race in the calendar. Three factors combine to make it a race where longshots regularly win or place:

1. The Handicap Weights

The entire point of a handicap is to give every horse an equal chance by making the better horses carry more weight. The BHA handicapper is good at his job. Over 4 miles 2 furlongs and 30 fences, the weight difference between the top and bottom of the handicap can genuinely level the playing field.

A 7/1 favourite carrying 11st 10lb and a 33/1 outsider carrying 10st 0lb are, on paper, meant to finish together. Sometimes the handicapper gets it slightly wrong. Sometimes the lower-weighted horse is improving. Either way, the weights compress the market in ways that do not happen in other races.

2. The Jumping Challenge

Thirty fences is a lot of chances to make a mistake. The best horse in the race can fall, lose momentum, or get boxed in — and once you lose ground in the Grand National, you rarely get it back.

Longshots do not need to be the best horse. They need to be the best horse that gets a clean round. In a field of 34, that opens up a much wider set of possible winners than in a 12-runner race on a flat track.

3. The Pace

The Grand National is run at a relentless gallop. Horses that cannot stay the trip are found out in the last mile. The leaders on the first circuit are rarely the leaders on the second. Jockeys know this, and they ride accordingly — which means patient rides on staying horses often produce surprise results.

A horse at 20/1 who is ridden patiently, jumps cleanly, and finishes strongly will often hit the frame. Sometimes it wins outright.

The Historical Record

In the last fifteen years, double-digit winners of the Grand National include:

• Mon Mome (100/1, 2009)
• Auroras Encore (66/1, 2013)
• Pineau De Re (25/1, 2014)
• Rule The World (33/1, 2016)
• Noble Yeats (50/1, 2022)
• Corach Rambler (12/1, 2023)
• Haiti Couleurs type prices (20/1+, recent years)

Roughly half of all Grand National winners in the modern era have been at odds of 16/1 or bigger. Compare that to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where the same statistic is closer to one in five.

Put simply: if you believe in backing favourites in every race, the Grand National is the one race where you should change your strategy.

Staking Strategy for Longshot Bets

Backing longshots well is not about picking one horse and putting everything on it. It is about structuring your bets to give you multiple lines of attack at sensible stakes. Here are three approaches:

Approach 1: The Multi-Horse Each-Way

Back 3-4 longshots each-way at the same stake. Your total outlay is higher, but you only need one of them to place to get a return, and one to win to turn a meaningful profit.

Example: £5 each-way on four horses at 20/1, 25/1, 28/1, and 33/1.

• Total stake: £40 (£20 win + £20 place)
• If one wins at 25/1 (with 1/5 place odds and 5 places paid): £125 win return + £25 place return = £150 total. Profit: £110.
• If one just places at 20/1: £20 place return. Loss: £20.
• If none place: Loss of £40.

This approach works well when you are confident at least one horse from your shortlist will hit the frame, but not sure which.

Approach 2: The Stand-Out Longshot

Back one longshot you feel strongest about at a slightly larger stake. This is higher variance but can produce big returns if it works.

Example: £15 each-way on Stumptown at 20/1.

• Total stake: £30
• If it wins: £315 win return + £60 place return = £375 total. Profit: £345.
• If it places: £60 place return. Loss: £30 wait, wait — at 1/5 place odds, a £15 place at 20/1 returns £60. So place only = £60 - £30 stake = £30 profit if it finishes 2nd-5th.

This is the high-conviction play. If you really like one horse, back it meaningfully rather than spreading across several.

Approach 3: Small Win + Each-Way Combo

Combine a small win-only stake on your top pick with an each-way on a bigger-priced horse.

Example: £10 win on Stumptown at 20/1 + £5 each-way on Twig at 33/1.

• Total stake: £20
• If Stumptown wins: £210 profit
• If Twig wins: £165 + £33 = £193 total. Profit: £178.
• If either places without winning: small return from the place portion

What Not to Do

• Do not back the favourite AND longshots. This hedges your position in a race where the favourite rarely wins. You are essentially paying the bookmaker to take a position on both sides.
• Do not chase losses with bigger bets on later races. The Grand National is the end of your day's betting if you lose, not the start of a recovery mission.
• Do not bet amounts that matter. Longshot betting is probabilistic entertainment. Set a budget at the start of the day and stop when you hit it, whether you're up or down.

Where to Back the Longshots

For the best place terms on Saturday, look for bookmakers offering 5 places (rather than 4) on the Grand National. Most major bookmakers extend their place terms for the race — it is one of the few days of the year when a 5-place or even 6-place bet is standard. Check our Grand National bookmaker offers for the latest place terms and enhanced odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

What counts as a Grand National longshot?

Any horse at odds of 15/1 or bigger is typically considered a longshot in the Grand National market. Horses at 25/1+ are outright outsiders. In a field of 34, expect around 15-20 horses to be trading at 15/1 or longer.

Can a 100/1 outsider really win the Grand National?

Yes. Mon Mome won at 100/1 in 2009. Noble Yeats won at 50/1 in 2022. It is genuinely rare but has happened multiple times in the modern era. The structural factors (handicap, jumping, pace) combine to create more upsets than in any other major race.

What does "each-way" mean on longshots?

An each-way bet is two bets combined: one for the horse to win, one for it to finish in the places. On the Grand National, most bookmakers pay on 5 places (sometimes 6) at 1/5 of the win odds. A £5 each-way at 25/1 costs £10 total and pays out if the horse finishes in the top 5. For our full each-way guide, see our betting article.

Should I back multiple longshots?

Most experienced punters back 2-4 horses each-way rather than one win-only. In the Grand National, the combination of each-way structure and double-digit odds means you can back several horses and still profit if one places.

Are longshots only worth backing each-way?

For beginners and casual punters, yes — each-way is the safest way to bet on outsiders. If you are willing to accept more variance, a small win-only stake on a longshot you feel strongly about can produce bigger returns. But the expected value of win-only bets on outsiders is lower than each-way over time.

How do bookmakers compare for longshot bets?

Two things matter: place terms (number of places paid) and starting price vs board price. Some bookmakers offer "best odds guaranteed" — meaning if the starting price is longer than the price you took, you get the bigger payout. For the Grand National, best odds guaranteed is especially valuable because prices often drift in the final hour. See our best bookmakers for horse racing guide.

When should I place my longshot bets?

The best time is typically Thursday or Friday when prices are at their longest before the weekend betting surge. If you wait until Saturday morning, many longshot prices will have contracted. However, betting too early (more than a week out) risks your horse being declared a non-runner.

Sources & verification

Race details, dates, prize money and trends in this piece were cross-checked against:

• Racing Post — race archive + form database
• Sporting Life — race cards and results
• Wikipedia — long-run historical data

[Source: cross-referenced as of the lastUpdated date in this article's meta.yaml.]