AI Race Predictor — track record
The running ledger of every prediction our in-house XGBoost + LightGBM model makes on UK racing, matched to what actually happened — cumulative ROI, calibration and strike rate over time. No cherry-picking, no hidden losses, no “subscribe for picks” paywall.
Our in-house model lost 16.8% ROI on the pre-registered Oct-Nov 2024 backtest window.
This page publishes what it predicts and tracks every result. We do this because nobody else does — the methodology is open, the losses are visible, the analysis is honest. The model output is presented as a comparison to the market, not as a recommendation to back, lay, or stake on any runner.
Read the full methodology in our in-house AI horse-racing model write-up. Track the running ledger on the Stablebet track record page.
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Our in-house model lost 16.8% ROI on the pre-registered Oct-Nov 2024 backtest window — 119 bets.
This page publishes what the AI Race Predictor forecasts each day and tracks every result against the actual race outcome. We do this because nobody else in UK racing does — the methodology is open, the losses are visible, the analysis is honest. If a model genuinely worked on UK racing, the people running it would be betting the picks themselves, not publishing them.
Read the full methodology and backtest history in our in-house AI horse-racing model write-up. Today's predictions are at /ai-race-predictor/today/.
Live ledger
The live dashboard fills in as races are reconciled.
Predictions publish daily at /ai-race-predictor/today/; after each card finishes, results are matched in and the cumulative-ROI, calibration and monthly charts above populate automatically. Until then, the historical backtests below are the record.
How the ledger works
What is logged. Every race the model runs against, every per-runner win probability it outputs, and the corresponding market-implied probability at the time of generation. After racing finishes, the actual finishing position is matched in. Nothing is retro-fitted.
How ROI is measured. Flat-stake win-only on the model's top-rated runner per race at industry SP. We deliberately use the simplest possible reference strategy — the model lives or dies on the basic version, not on a hand-tuned filter.
Calibration over volume. The metric we care about most isn't hit rate or ROI in isolation — it's whether the model's predicted probabilities match observed frequencies. A 20%-rated horse should win roughly 20% of the time. The calibration plot above updates as the ledger grows.
Backtest vs live. The shaded part of the curve is walk-forward backtested history (trained only on data before each race); the live section is forward results published in advance. Both are shown — we don't quietly drop the losing stretches.
Historical backtests
Results from before the daily ledger started, reproduced from the published methodology in full transparency — including windows where the model looked profitable on the surface and the pre-registered untouched window where it didn't.
| Window | Bets | ROI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb-Apr 2025 | — | +15.7% | Tuned filter — overfit to window |
| Dec-Jan 2025 | — | -17.0% | Same filter, untouched window — lost |
| Feb-Apr 2024 + Feb-Apr 2025 | ~320 | +27.0% | Re-tuned filter — overfit to combined window |
| Oct-Nov 2024 (pre-registered) | 119 | -16.8% | Authoritative — the headline number |
The Oct-Nov 2024 window was pre-registered in the published methodology before testing. That makes it the only one of these results that isn't vulnerable to the overfitting every other backtest in the table is. It's the figure we anchor to.
Why we publish this
Most UK racing tipsters never publish a verified track record. The ones that do publish carefully-selected weeks or omit losing months. We publish every prediction and every result because the transparency itself is the point: you don't need to trust us, you can read the ledger. If the model is losing money, it'll be obvious. If it's winning, that'll be obvious too.
The AI Race Predictor is research, not a tip service. We don't sell picks, we don't run a subscription, and we don't take a cut of any bet you place. What we run is a free, transparent ledger of one in-house model's attempt to compete with the market — and we're honest about the result whether it works or not.