One flat £10 on the model's own top pick in every British race it has priced, settled to industry starting price with the fallers counted as losses. No system, no staking trick, just the model's single best horse, day after day. This is how that balance would have felt in a real wallet.
On 544 race-days the balance finished up on 196 and down on 346. The best single day made +£242; the worst lost £258. Even its longest winning run (8 days) is shorter than its longest losing one (10 days). That is exactly what a market you can't beat looks like.
The running £ balance, every race-day since the record began. Green sections are days it rose, red days it fell. The gold line marks where backtesting ends and live, published-before-the-off predictions begin.
The same record split into calendar months. Green months won, red months lost. A good month happens; a run of them does not.
All-time against the most recent 90 and 30 days, including how the model's probabilities score against the market's on the same races (Brier score, lower is sharper). The market stays ahead.
| Window | Bets | Strike | ROI to SP | Profit / loss | Model Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All time | 7,357 | 25.6% | -11.5% | -£8,453 | 0.1023 |
| Last 90 days | 1,328 | 23.9% | -9.8% | -£1,301 | 0.1010 |
| Last 30 days | 793 | 21.2% | -13.5% | -£1,071 | 0.0982 |
Model Brier 0.1023 versus the market's 0.0931 on the same races: the model is well calibrated, just not as sharp as the price. That gap is the whole story, and the reason we show you this instead of selling you tips.
The same ledger, sliced the way the Tipster League slices its board. Pick a timeframe and the graph and numbers re-cut to it. £10 flat on the model's top pick per race, settled at SP.
Profit
−£1,045
ROI
-13.4%
Strike rate
21%
Bets
779
Staked
£7,790
Returned
£6,745
A running ledger of the model's latest top pick in each race: the selection, the market's price, and how it settled. Win or lose, every one is here, so you can see exactly how the model reads a race.
Oddschecker Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
Three runs with a win last time, suggesting recent form is solid. The model estimates 20 per cent while the market prices it at 13 per cent, implying the model
Tide Construction Apprentice Handicap
Fourteen runs on the card with four wins at this distance, though well beaten last time out. The model rates it at 19 per cent against a market price of 12/1, s
William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap
Nine career runs with a well-beaten effort last time, though it has won one of three at this trip. The model's estimate of 8% sits well above the market's asses
Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored By Ultimate Provence) (Fillies' Group 2)
Perfect record of two wins from two, including both starts at this trip, with a rating of 109. The model's estimate of 21 percent sits well below the market's 5
Knight Frank Conditions Stakes
Won its sole outing at this distance, a promising start on the page. The model's estimate of 24% sits notably above the market's 17%, suggesting the model rates
William Hill Summer Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3)
Thirteen runs with mixed form, well beaten last time but a course winner twice from two attempts there. The model estimates 15 per cent against a market price s
Betway Trophy (Heritage Handicap)
Recent winner with eight runs on the card, rated 83. The model's estimate of 13% sits well below the market's 41%, a substantial gap suggesting the market is pr
JLL Handicap
Four runs with a third most recently, rated 82. The model's 11% sits below the market's 14%, suggesting the market holds this runner in higher regard.
Irish Thoroughbred Marketing EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes
Two runs with a win last time, rated 76. The model's estimate of 15% sits below the market price of 23%, suggesting the market is more impressed by the recent s
Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Falmouth Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 1)
Twelve runs with a second last time and perfect record of one win from one at this track; two wins from nine at the trip show mixed form at the distance. The mo
Long Harbour Handicap
Eight runs with a recent win and two victories from four attempts at this trip suggest a capable performer at the level. The model's 31% estimate sits considera
Laura Barry Memorial Handicap
Four career runs with one win, most recently second, and a win to its name at this trip. The model's 13% sits below the market's 23%, suggesting the market rate
This is research, not tips. The model is a calibrated read on a race: it picks winners at a consistent rate and still loses to the starting price, which is the whole honest story. 18+, please bet responsibly.