The AI Lab · Silicon Tipster League
Stablebet Edge: horse racing tips, tested
Stablebet Edge · StablebetCurrently #5 of 9
Stablebet Edge is one of two horses our own racing engine runs in AI Finds the Value Bets. In each UK and Irish race it backs the runner whose winning chance the model rates furthest above the market's implied chance: the biggest edge on the card, however unfancied the horse. When even the biggest edge is too small to count, it sits the race out. Its stablemate, the Stablebet Model, backs the engine's most likely winner instead. Same numbers, two rules, and the gap between their records is the experiment.
Research, not tips. Every pick logged before the off and settled at industry Starting Price, wins and losses alike. 18+ · please gamble responsibly.
Stablebet Edge's scorecard
3,228 picks settledStaked (£1 stakes)
£3,228
Returned
£2,729
Profit
−£499
ROI
-15.4%
AI Finds the Value Bets
−£499(-15.4%)Sees the market by construction. Backs the biggest model-vs-market edge on the card, £1 a pick, and sits out races where that edge is under 2 points.
- Staked
- £3,228
- Returned
- £2,729
- Bets
- 3,228
- Win%
- 8%
Not entered in AI Picks the Winner
Our model is trained on market-derived data, so the market's view is baked into every rating it makes. A 'blind' version would be a fiction, which is why it competes in AI Finds the Value Bets only, against the AIs that can also see the market.
Since 15 September 2026, Stablebet Edge sits a race out when its biggest edge on the card is under 2 percentage points. Before that it backed a runner in every race, however small the edge, and those picks stay on the record exactly as they were published. It has sat out 1 race so far. Because it can now have fewer bets than there are races, compare it with the rest of the field on return per £1 and strike rate, not on total staked or total profit.
Went its own way: 0 races where Stablebet Edge was the lone dissenter while the rest of the field agreed on a different horse.
Stablebet Edge's running profit
£1 on every pick, settled to Starting Price. The whole record, wins and losses alike.
How Stablebet Edge's last calls went
Settled picks, newest first, with the one-line reason Stablebet Edge logged before the off and what the race did with it. Wins and losses alike, scored at Starting Price.
| Race | Arm | Pick | Conf. | Reason | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leopardstown17:12 | Value pick | Bear Right | Medium | Model 11.8% v market 8.1%: edge +3.7pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 7.5 · −£1.00 |
| Limerick17:00 | Value pick | Echoing Silence | High | Model 36.9% v market 25.9%: edge +10.9pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 1.4444 · −£1.00 |
| Sedgefield16:50 | Value pick | Going On | High | Model 51.1% v market 20.9%: edge +30.2pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 2.5 · −£1.00 |
| Leopardstown16:42 | Value pick | Leopold The First | High | Model 7.7% v market 2.2%: edge +5.5pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 29 · −£1.00 |
| Limerick16:30 | Value pick | Slanagaibhgoleir | High | Model 8.9% v market 1.7%: edge +7.2pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 29 · −£1.00 |
| Sedgefield16:20 | Value pick | Klitschko | High | Model 16.4% v market 7.6%: edge +8.8pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 7 · −£1.00 |
| Leopardstown16:12 | Value pick | Dark Viper | High | Model 10.5% v market 5.5%: edge +5.0pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 10 · −£1.00 |
| Limerick16:00 | Value pick | Meet And Greet | Medium | Model 6.0% v market 2.0%: edge +3.9pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 8.5 · −£1.00 |
| Sedgefield15:50 | Value pick | Cadillac Ranch | High | Model 19.8% v market 14.0%: edge +5.8pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 4.5 · −£1.00 |
| Leopardstown15:42 | Value pick | Moments Of Joy | High | Model 8.0% v market 3.0%: edge +5.0pp, the biggest on the card | Void (non-runner) |
| Limerick15:30 | Value pick | Strange Currency | High | Model 6.1% v market 1.6%: edge +4.5pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 13 · −£1.00 |
| Sedgefield15:20 | Value pick | Passengerontheship | High | Model 14.0% v market 6.7%: edge +7.3pp, the biggest on the card | Won · SP 5.5 · +£4.50 |
| Leopardstown15:12 | Value pick | Playin Cool | Medium | Model 6.7% v market 2.9%: edge +3.8pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 4.5 · −£1.00 |
| Limerick15:00 | Value pick | Galavanting George | High | Model 9.4% v market 2.8%: edge +6.7pp, the biggest on the card | Void (non-runner) |
| Sedgefield14:50 | Value pick | Hay Max | High | Model 18.4% v market 9.5%: edge +8.9pp, the biggest on the card | Won · SP 7.5 · +£6.50 |
| Leopardstown14:42 | Value pick | Zodiac Bear | High | Model 16.4% v market 10.4%: edge +6.0pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 13 · −£1.00 |
| Limerick14:30 | Value pick | Approval | High | Model 22.6% v market 15.6%: edge +7.1pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 4 · −£1.00 |
| Sedgefield14:20 | Value pick | Path Of Stars | High | Model 17.3% v market 6.6%: edge +10.8pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 5.5 · −£1.00 |
| Leopardstown14:12 | Value pick | Maybe Art | High | Model 10.2% v market 2.2%: edge +8.0pp, the biggest on the card | Lost · SP 301 · −£1.00 |
| Limerick14:00 | Value pick | Jury Time | High | Model 22.6% v market 3.1%: edge +19.5pp, the biggest on the card | Void (non-runner) |
Today's picks
Logged before the off and not yet settled. Published in advance so the record cannot be written after the result is known. Research, not tips.
| Race | Arm | Pick | Conf. | Reason | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell20:30 | Value pick | Spec Of Light | High | Model 29.5% v market 22.4%: edge +7.0pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Wolverhampton20:15 | Value pick | Dance Of Angels | High | Model 14.1% v market 5.1%: edge +9.0pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Southwell20:00 | Value pick | Dontelimurnamepike | High | Model 7.3% v market 1.7%: edge +5.6pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Wolverhampton19:45 | Value pick | General Assembly | High | Model 12.1% v market 6.3%: edge +5.8pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Southwell19:30 | Value pick | Starakova | High | Model 10.6% v market 6.0%: edge +4.6pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Wolverhampton19:15 | Value pick | No Knee Never | Medium | Model 11.3% v market 7.4%: edge +3.9pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Southwell19:00 | Value pick | Wesam | High | Model 9.6% v market 4.8%: edge +4.8pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Wolverhampton18:45 | Value pick | A Lott Of Kane | High | Model 20.0% v market 15.8%: edge +4.2pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Southwell18:30 | Value pick | Kigali | Medium | Model 8.3% v market 4.6%: edge +3.7pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Wolverhampton18:15 | Value pick | Dandana | Medium | Model 14.2% v market 11.3%: edge +2.9pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Southwell18:00 | Value pick | Siouxpersonic | Medium | Model 8.6% v market 4.9%: edge +3.7pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
| Wolverhampton17:45 | Value pick | Morris Dancer | High | Model 19.5% v market 11.1%: edge +8.4pp, the biggest on the card | pending |
How Stablebet Edge actually picks
The model doesn't read a racecard the way the chatbots do. It never sees prose at all. Each runner arrives as numbers: career form figures, official rating against the field, course and distance record, the going, the class, the weather. Out comes a win probability for every horse, and this entry compares each one with the market's implied chance, then backs the runner sitting furthest above its price. The one-line reason beside each pick states that edge in percentage points, and newer picks show the model's chance and the market's chance beside it, so the case for the pick and the pick itself always come from the same place. No story-telling, no hedging, the same cold arithmetic on every card.
About Stablebet Edge
The engine behind this entry is the machine-learning system that powers our AI Race Predictor: a gradient-boosted ensemble trained on years of UK and Irish results, reading each runner's own form, the race conditions and the weather. Unlike the chatbots beside it on this board, it was built for exactly one job (estimating each horse's chance of winning) and we check those probabilities against every runner on the card, where the chances it gives line up closely with how often horses actually win. Stablebet Edge's own picks are a different group: they are chosen for the biggest gap between the model and the market, and across 3,228 settled picks the model gave them a 14% chance on average while they won 8% of the time.
Here is the honest part, and it is the reason this page exists: well-calibrated is not the same as profitable. The betting market is a formidably sharp forecaster, and our own long-running track record shows the model picking winners at a healthy rate while still losing money at SP, because the prices it takes are slightly worse than the truth it knows. We publish that record in full rather than hiding it.
The Edge rule is the aggressive way to use those probabilities: ignore who is most likely to win and back wherever the model and the market disagree most. That disagreement usually lives out at the unfancied end of the card, so expect this row to back far more outsiders than its stablemate does. Whether the model's boldest disagreements are insight or noise is exactly what this record will show, one race at a time.
The interesting question is what happens when you refine the rule. Keep only the disagreements in the price range where the model is well calibrated, take the morning price rather than the drifting Starting Price, and one early signal is left worth testing: closing-line value, the professionals' measure of consistently getting a bigger price than the horse deserves. Backing every edge blindly at SP loses. The refined version runs as its own long-term experiment with its error bars on show, and it is not a proven edge: its closing-line value is an early reading, and its best-looking return adds Best Odds Guaranteed, a bookmaker promotion, on top of the early price.
From Edge to our best shot at the market
Edge is where the idea starts: back the model's biggest disagreement with the market. Scored at Starting Price it loses over a real sample, like everything does at the off. But sharpen it, keep only the disagreements in the price range where the model is well calibrated, take the morning price with Best Odds Guaranteed, and one early signal is left worth testing: closing-line value, the measure the few long-term winners are judged on.
That refined version is its own experiment, committed for the long term, with its error bars on show. It is not a proven edge: the closing-line value is an early reading on a small sample, and the return with Best Odds Guaranteed includes a bookmaker promotion as well as the early price.
See the closing-line-value experiment →Why it runs only in AI Finds the Value Bets
The model competes in AI Finds the Value Bets only, and that is a matter of honesty rather than preference. It is trained on years of real results and market-derived data: the prices races actually settled at are baked into what it learned, so the market's view is part of its DNA. Entering it in AI Picks the Winner would smuggle in exactly the information that test exists to hide, and flatter it against chatbots picking on the form alone. So it races where the playing field is level: in AI Finds the Value Bets, against AIs that can also see the market's implied chance for every runner. That is the fair fight, and the one worth watching.
What to watch on Stablebet Edge's board
- Whether the purpose-built specialist beats the general-purpose chatbots over a real sample, the question this entry exists to answer
- The prices it takes: the biggest edge tends to live on unfancied horses, so expect long odds, long losing runs and the occasional big-priced winner. That shape IS the strategy
- How it fares against its stablemate, the Stablebet Model: same engine, same races, one backing its winner and one backing its edge. The gap between those two records is the cleanest experiment on the board
- Its strike rate versus its profit: an edge hunter can be right about the value and still lose for weeks. Judge it on the settled record, not a hot fortnight
The rest of the field
Stablebet Edge is one of 9 on the board. See how the others are reading the same races:
Questions about Stablebet Edge tips
What is Stablebet Edge backing in the league?
Its biggest edge in each UK and Irish race on the day's card: the runner whose winning chance the model rates furthest above the market's implied chance, at £1 level stakes, logged before the off and settled at industry Starting Price. That is the same value rule the five chatbots play to. If even the biggest edge in a race is under the minimum shown on this page, it sits that race out and places no bet. Before that rule came in it backed a runner in every race, and those picks stay on the record as published. The pick is taken automatically from the model's published numbers, with no human override.
How is Stablebet Edge different from the Stablebet Model?
One engine, two rules. Both entries read the same probabilities from the same daily model run. The Stablebet Model backs the horse it rates most likely to win; Stablebet Edge backs the horse whose price is most wrong by the model's reckoning, which is usually a much longer-priced runner. Running both side by side shows whether the model's edge claims hold up better than its straight win claims.
Why does the model run in AI Finds the Value Bets and not AI Picks the Winner?
Because it could never honestly be blind. The model is trained on years of results and market-derived data, so the market's view is baked into every probability it produces. A 'blind' entry would carry information AI Picks the Winner exists to hide, which would be unfair on the chatbots reading the form alone. It competes in AI Finds the Value Bets, where everyone can see the market's view.
Can I make money following Stablebet Edge's picks?
No, and our own track record page says so in plain numbers. The model wins races at a consistent rate and still loses money at SP over time, because the bookmaker's margin is bigger than its edge. We enter it here as research and entertainment, not as a tipping service. 18+, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
If the biggest edge loses at SP, is there an edge anywhere?
The one place worth testing is the closing line, and its early numbers point the right way. Backing every edge at Starting Price, longshots included, loses, and that is the honest verdict. The refined idea asks whether the model's value picks in its reliable mid-range are consistently priced bigger in the morning than they start, and it runs as its own long-term experiment, published with its error bars. On the sample so far that closing-line value is an early reading, and the return with Best Odds Guaranteed leans on a bookmaker promotion as well as the early price, so none of it is a proven edge over the bookmaker's margin.
This page sits inside the AI Lab, where we test whether any betting system makes money (across 26,000+ races, none of them do), and ask the bigger question in does following an AI tipster work?
Gamble responsibly.This page is research and entertainment, not betting advice. No AI here beats the bookmaker's margin, and nothing on it is a signal to stake. Betting should never be a way to make money. If it is affecting you or someone you know, free and confidential support is at BeGambleAware.org. 18+.