THE AI LAB

LATEST CARD · FRIDAY, 4 SEPTEMBER 2026

Today's Odds, Read by the AI Lab

The card, read by the Lab

Predictions generated 4 September 2026 at 06:01 (UK time)

Today's card (Saturday, 5 September 2026) publishes early each morning, once the day's racecards are finalised. Until then, here is the most recent published card, from Friday, 4 September 2026.

Professor Furlong

Today, the fairest prices are at Bangor-on-Dee, where the bookmaker's margin is lowest, while Down Royal's prices look the dearest. The model's most likely runner differs from the market favourite in the majority of races, suggesting a more open and less predictable day than usual. This is a calibrated read of the numbers, not tips, and it cannot beat the market.

Today's odds map: the bookmaker's margin at every meeting

The margin is the slice the bookmaker builds into the prices, shown here as a percentage. The same bet costs you more where it is higher: a low margin means the prices are close to fair, a high one means the house is helping itself.

Meeting	Races	Avg margin	Favourites	Today's read
Bangor-on-Dee	7	15%	strong	best value
Worcester	7	18%	fair
Kempton Park	7	21%	fair
Haydock Park	7	22%	fair
Ascot	7	23%	weak	most open
Kilbeggan	7	30%	fair
Down Royal	8	57%	strong	worst value

Pascal is already eyeing the 57% margin at Down Royal. Pascal always does.

The day's safest-priced favourites

These are not tips, and not a way to beat the bookmaker (nothing reliably does). They are simply the runners with the shortest, most-backed price carrying the smallest margin: short enough to win, fair enough to be worth understanding. The Professor would rather you knew why than blindly backed them.

Girl Scout2/1

Haydock Park 14:05 · price implies about 31% · only 9% margin

The market's favourite at Haydock Park, in one of the day's lower-margin races. Short enough to win, fair enough that you are not badly overpaying, though still not value, and still not a tip.

Etonnante10/11

Haydock Park 14:40 · price implies about 48% · only 9% margin

The market's favourite at Haydock Park, in one of the day's lower-margin races. Short enough to win, fair enough that you are not badly overpaying, though still not value, and still not a tip.

Gilding The Lily10/11

Kempton Park 18:24 · price implies about 48% · only 10% margin

The market's favourite at Kempton Park, in one of the day's lower-margin races. Short enough to win, fair enough that you are not badly overpaying, though still not value, and still not a tip.

The day's worst value

The races where the house takes the biggest slice. The same bet costs you most here, whichever runner you fancy: the margin is baked into every price on the card.

Down Royal 19:3094%

Grant Thornton Handicap (0-60) (Div 2)

Back every runner in this race and the prices total about 94% over a fair book. Even the favourite (Idomything, 4/5) carries roughly 34% of margin in its own price.

Down Royal 18:3091%

Children's Heartbeat Trust Apprentice Handicap

Back every runner in this race and the prices total about 91% over a fair book. Even the favourite (Sinbad My Dad, 3/1) carries roughly 38% of margin in its own price.

Down Royal 19:0062%

Grant Thornton Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)

Back every runner in this race and the prices total about 62% over a fair book. Even the favourite (Miss Australie, 2/1) carries roughly 28% of margin in its own price.

Prefer a traditional racecard? Every runner with form, weights and colours, and our price, fair-price and margin columns built in: today's racecards.

Every race, in full

Tap any meeting below to open it.Each race expands to the full field ranked by chance, the bookmaker's margin built into every price, and the model's read on every runner next to the market.

Go on, open one. Every runner gets its price, the margin baked into it, and the Professor's read on the day, the bad as well as the good.

Haydock Park7 races · avg margin 22% · model leans off the favourite in 7 of 7 · view our Haydock Park racecardopen every race ▾

13:30Thomas Armstrong Group Haydock Park Training SFav Dance Time 7/2 11% margin in this price16% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Haydock Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This apprentice handicap features eight runners and the bookmaker's margin is around 16% over a fair book. The market has made Dance Time the favourite at 7/2, but the model points to Zimmerman as the most likely winner. Model estimates range from 23% down to 8%, suggesting a fairly open contest.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 116%, about 16% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Dance Timereads the form

29 career runs · 3rd last time · won 2 of 10 at the trip · rated 71

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin11% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Dance Time has 29 career runs, finishing third last time, and has won 2 of 10 at this trip, rated 71. The market has it as the 7/2 favourite, implying a 20% chance. However, the model's estimate is lower at 13%, indicating a difference in assessment. (model 13% · fair 20%)

2Dream Harderreads the form

33 career runs · 4th last time · rated 74

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin12% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Dream Harder has a substantial 33 career runs, finishing fourth last time, and is rated 74. The market prices it at 4/1, implying a 17% chance. The model's estimate of 10% is significantly lower than the market's assessment. (model 10% · fair 17%)

3Cascade Hallreads the form

28 career runs · 7th last time · rated 63

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin12% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Cascade Hall has completed 28 career runs, finishing seventh last time, and is rated 63. The market has it at 4/1, suggesting a 16% chance of success. The model's estimate is considerably lower at 10%, indicating a divergence from the market's view. (model 10% · fair 16%)

4Zimmermanreads the form

22 career runs · won last time · rated 61

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Zimmerman has run 22 times and secured a win last time out, now rated 61. The model makes it the most likely winner at 23%, which is notably higher than the market's 11%. This suggests the model sees more in its recent form than the market does. (model 23% · fair 11%)

5Yellow Cardreads the form

16 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 73

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 16 career runs, Yellow Card finished second last time and holds a rating of 73. The model gives it a 16% chance, which is above the market's 11%. Its higher rating suggests it should be competitive in this field. (model 16% · fair 11%)

6Gentle Warriorreads the form

19 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 2 at the course · won 2 of 7 at the trip

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Gentle Warrior has raced 19 times, finishing seventh last time, and has won 1 of 2 at this course and 2 of 7 at this trip, rated 72. The model's 11% estimate aligns closely with the market's 10%. Its course and distance form are positive factors. (model 11% · fair 10%)

7Easwrith Destinyreads the form

4 career runs · 6th last time · rated 68

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With only 4 career runs, Easwrith Destiny finished sixth last time and is rated 68. The model's estimate of 9% is very close to the market's 10%. Its limited experience means there may be more to come, but also less form to assess. (model 9% · fair 10%)

8Expressionlessreads the form

33 career runs · 5th last time · won 3 of 14 at the trip · rated 66

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Expressionless has 33 career runs, finishing fifth last time, and has won 3 of 14 at this trip, rated 66. The model's 8% estimate is close to the market's 7%. Its consistent form at this trip is a notable aspect of its profile. (model 8% · fair 7%)

14:05Lee Thomas Christy Memorial EBF Fillies' NovicFav Girl Scout 2/1 7% margin in this price9% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Haydock Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a small field of four runners. The bookmaker's margin of around 9% suggests a typical pricing structure for a race of this size. The market has Girl Scout as the favourite at 2/1, but my model suggests My Girl Dee Mo is the most likely winner instead.

A lightly-raced field (1 debutant, 3 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

Back every runner and the prices total 109%, about 9% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Girl Scoutlightly raced

2 career runs · 3rd last time

Price offered2/1 = 33% chance

Bookie's margin7% of this price

Fair price9/4 margin stripped

The AI's read With two career runs, this horse also finished third on its most recent outing. This form is comparable to Highland Girl's. The market makes it the 2/1 favourite, implying confidence, but my model's 24% is lower than the market's 31%. (model 24% · fair 31%)

2My Girl Dee Mofirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered5/2 = 29% chance

Bookie's margin8% of this price

Fair price11/4 margin stripped

The AI's read A debutant, so there is no form to assess. The 5/2 price reflects market expectation rather than any on-track performance. My model gives it 30% against the market's 26%, suggesting a slightly more optimistic view than the crowd. (model 30% · fair 26%)

3Highland Girllightly raced

2 career runs · 3rd last time

Price offered5/2 = 29% chance

Bookie's margin8% of this price

Fair price11/4 margin stripped

The AI's read This filly has had two career runs, finishing third last time out. That performance provides some indication of ability. My model's estimate of 26% aligns exactly with the market's 26%, indicating a shared perception of its chances. (model 26% · fair 26%)

4Princess Lottielightly raced

2 career runs · 4th last time

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Princess Lottie has two career runs to her name, finishing fourth last time. This puts her just behind some of the others in terms of recent form. My model gives her 20% against the market's 17%, so my read is a little more positive than the price. (model 20% · fair 17%)

14:40Tattersalls 40,000 EBF Fillies' Novice StakesFav Etonnante 10/11 6% margin in this price9% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Haydock Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

A small field of four runners here, with the bookmaker's margin sitting at around 9%. The market has a strong favourite at 5/6, but my model sees this race rather differently, suggesting a different horse is the most likely winner. The model's estimates for the runners are quite closely grouped, ranging from 33% down to 20%.

A lightly-raced field (0 debutants, 4 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

1Etonnantelightly raced

2 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 2 at the trip · rated 92

Price offered10/11 = 52% chance

Bookie's margin6% of this price

Fair price11/10 margin stripped

The AI's read Etonnante has run twice in its career, finishing seventh last time out, but it has won one of its two starts at this trip. Its rating of 92 puts it at a competitive level for this race. My model gives it 25% against the market's 48%, indicating the crowd is notably more confident in its chances. The market's strong support is a significant factor here. (model 25% · fair 48%)

2Californian Angellightly raced

2 career runs · 6th last time

Price offered9/4 = 31% chance

Bookie's margin8% of this price

Fair price5/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has two career outings, finishing sixth on its most recent appearance. While it has some experience, there is no winning form to highlight. My model gives it 20% against the market's 28%, meaning the market is somewhat more optimistic about its prospects. The absence of a win from its two starts is a point to note. (model 20% · fair 28%)

3Marsalalightly raced

2 career runs · 7th last time

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Marsala has made two career starts, most recently finishing seventh. There is not a great deal of form to examine, but it has at least seen a racecourse twice. My model gives it 22% against the market's 21%, which suggests my read is very much in line with the price on offer. The limited form makes a definitive assessment challenging. (model 22% · fair 21%)

4Novahlightly raced

1 career run · 8th last time

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin45% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had just one career run, finishing eighth on that occasion. With so little form to go on, the model has very little information to process here. My model gives it 33% against the market's 3%, a very wide divergence, suggesting the market sees very little chance for this one. The lack of prior performance makes it a difficult horse to assess. (model 33% · fair 3%)

15:15Oakmere Homes HandicapFav Ran Amok 4/1 17% margin in this price31% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Haydock Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Haydock Park handicap is a wide-open affair with 14 runners and a bookmaker margin suggesting a competitive market. The model's estimate for the most likely winner, Grant Wood, differs from the market's favourite, Ran Amok, indicating a divergence in assessment at the top of the market. The model's probabilities range from 10% down to 6%, reinforcing the competitive nature of the contest.

1 of 14 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

Back every runner and the prices total 131%, about 31% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Ran Amokreads the form

14 career runs · 3rd last time · won 2 of 13 at the trip · rated 76

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Ran Amok has 14 career runs, finishing third on its most recent start. It has won two of its 13 attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 76. The model's estimate of 6% is considerably lower than the market's 15%, which makes it the favourite, suggesting a significant divergence in opinion. (model 6% · fair 15%)

2Tip Fosterlightly raced

2 career runs · won last time · rated 76

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read The model rates it 8% where the fair price implies 14% (Medium agreement).

3Wild Claryreads the form

17 career runs · 4th last time · won 2 of 14 at the trip · rated 87

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Wild Clary has 17 career runs, finishing fourth on its most recent start. It has won two of its 14 attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 87, placing it among the highest-rated in the field. The model's estimate of 7% is significantly lower than the market's 14%, suggesting the market is considerably more confident. (model 7% · fair 14%)

4Milfordreads the form

19 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 87

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Milford has 19 career runs to its name, finishing second on its most recent outing. Its rating of 87 places it among the higher-rated horses in this field. The model's estimate of 8% sits below the market's 11%, indicating the market is slightly more confident in its prospects. (model 8% · fair 11%)

5Territorial Knightreads the form

16 career runs · 5th last time · won 2 of 14 at the trip · rated 85

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Territorial Knight has 16 career runs, finishing fifth last time out. It has won two of its 14 attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 85. The model's estimate of 6% sits below the market's 10%, indicating the market is pricing its chances more strongly than my analysis. (model 6% · fair 10%)

6Wovenreads the form

22 career runs · 9th last time · won 1 of 4 at the course · won 2 of 21 at the trip

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Woven has 22 career runs, finishing ninth on its most recent start. It has a win from four attempts at this course and two wins from 21 at this trip, holding a rating of 84. The model's estimate of 8% is very close to the market's 9%, indicating a largely similar view of its chances. (model 8% · fair 9%)

7Cargin Bhuireads the form

25 career runs · 5th last time · won 3 of 17 at the trip · rated 77

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Cargin Bhui has 25 career runs, finishing fifth last time out. It has won three of its 17 attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 77. The model's estimate of 6% is slightly below the market's 7%, indicating a broadly similar, though marginally less optimistic, view. (model 6% · fair 7%)

8Grant Woodreads the form

31 career runs · 6th last time · won 1 of 5 at the course · won 5 of 28 at the trip

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 31 career runs, Grant Wood finished sixth last time out. It has a win from five attempts at this course and five wins from 28 at this trip, holding a rating of 77. The model's estimate of 10% is significantly higher than the market's 5%, suggesting my read is considerably more optimistic than the prevailing price. (model 10% · fair 5%)

9Lord Bertiereads the form

24 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 10 at the trip · rated 76

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin38% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Lord Bertie has 24 career runs, finishing well beaten on its last outing. It has won one of its ten attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 76. The model's estimate of 7% is considerably higher than the market's 3%, suggesting my read is more positive despite its recent poor performance. (model 7% · fair 3%)

10Never Just A Dreamreads the form

8 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 80

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin38% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Never Just A Dream has eight career runs, finishing well beaten last time out. It holds a rating of 80, which puts it in the middle of this field. The model's estimate of 7% is higher than the market's 3%, suggesting a more favourable view from my analysis than the current price reflects. (model 7% · fair 3%)

11Coachelloreads the form

24 career runs · 8th last time · won 2 of 22 at the trip · rated 80

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin38% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Coachello has 24 career runs, finishing eighth last time out. It has won two of its 22 attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 80. The model's estimate of 7% is higher than the market's 3%, suggesting a more positive assessment from my analysis despite its recent form. (model 7% · fair 3%)

12Trust Amyreads the form

11 career runs · 9th last time · won 1 of 9 at the trip · rated 69

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin38% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Trust Amy has 11 career runs, finishing ninth last time out. It has won one of its nine attempts at this trip and holds the lowest rating in the field at 69. The model's estimate of 6% is higher than the market's 3%, suggesting a slightly more positive assessment from my analysis. (model 6% · fair 3%)

13Kodi Lionreads the form

20 career runs · 9th last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · won 2 of 8 at the trip

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin45% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Kodi Lion has 20 career runs, finishing ninth last time out. It has a win from three attempts at this course and two wins from eight at this trip, with a rating of 84. The model's estimate of 8% is substantially higher than the market's 2%, suggesting my assessment is much keener than the current price. (model 8% · fair 2%)

14Reciprocatedreads the form

9 career runs · well beaten last time · won 2 of 7 at the trip · rated 84

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin45% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Reciprocated has nine career runs, finishing well beaten on its last start. It has won two of its seven attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 84. The model's estimate of 7% is notably higher than the market's 2%, indicating a more optimistic assessment from my side. (model 7% · fair 2%)

15:47Aesterius At Bearstone Stud HandicapFav Creative Queen 3/1 14% margin in this price25% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Haydock Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Haydock Park handicap has 12 runners and appears quite open, with the model's estimates ranging from 14% down to 6%. The bookmaker's margin of around 25% suggests a fairly typical pricing structure for this size of field. The market favourite is Creative Queen at 3/1, but my model instead makes Boston Dan the most likely winner.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 125%, about 25% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Creative Queenreads the form

8 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 73

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had 8 career runs, finishing second last time and is rated 73. My model gives it an 8% chance, which is considerably lower than the market's 20%. The market making it the 3/1 favourite suggests a strong belief in its prospects that my model does not fully reflect. (model 8% · fair 20%)

2Lipsinkreads the form

24 career runs · 2nd last time · won 2 of 14 at the trip · rated 78

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 24 career runs, this horse finished second last time. It has won two of its 14 attempts at this trip and is rated 78. My model's estimate of 11% sits slightly below the market's 13%, suggesting the market is a shade more optimistic about its chances at 5/1. (model 11% · fair 13%)

3Changeofmindreads the form

20 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 20 at the trip · rated 82

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read In 20 career runs, this horse finished second last time. It has won one of its 20 attempts at this trip and is rated 82. My model's 8% estimate is below the market's 11%, suggesting the market at 6/1 is pricing it more keenly than my calculations. (model 8% · fair 11%)

4Accrualreads the form

25 career runs · 3rd last time · won 4 of 18 at the trip · rated 79

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 25 career runs, finishing third last time. It has won four of its 18 attempts at this trip and is rated 79. My model's 7% estimate is below the market's 11%, suggesting the market at 6/1 is pricing it more keenly than my calculations. (model 7% · fair 11%)

5Secret Mistralreads the form

32 career runs · 4th last time · won 2 of 11 at the course · won 5 of 29 at the trip

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has a long career of 32 runs, finishing fourth last time. It has won two of its 11 starts at this course and five of its 29 at this trip, being rated 81. My model's 9% estimate is just under the market's 10%, indicating a broadly similar assessment at 7/1. (model 9% · fair 10%)

6Jer Battreads the form

21 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 5 at the course · won 1 of 20 at the trip

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 21 career runs, finishing fourth last time. It has won one of its five starts at this course and one of its 20 at this trip, being rated 80. My model's 8% estimate is close to the market's 9%, indicating a similar read at 8/1. (model 8% · fair 9%)

7American Bayreads the form

24 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 11 at the trip · rated 72

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 24 career runs, finishing seventh last time. It has won one of its 11 attempts at this trip and is rated 72. My model's 7% estimate is slightly above the market's 5%, indicating a marginally more favourable view than the 12/1 price. (model 7% · fair 5%)

8Spoofreads the form

12 career runs · 8th last time · won 2 of 12 at the trip · rated 77

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 12 career runs, finishing eighth last time. It has won two of its 12 attempts at this trip and is rated 77. My model's 6% estimate is close to the market's 5%, indicating a broadly similar assessment at 12/1. (model 6% · fair 5%)

9Mighty Magnusreads the form

15 career runs · well beaten last time · won 2 of 11 at the trip · rated 81

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin27% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 15 career runs, this horse was well beaten last time out. It has won two of its 11 attempts at this trip and is rated 81. My model's 8% estimate is slightly above the market's 5%, suggesting my read is a little more positive than the 16/1 price. (model 8% · fair 5%)

10Parisiacreads the form

45 career runs · 8th last time · won 7 of 32 at the trip · rated 77

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin31% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse is very experienced with 45 career runs, finishing eighth last time. It has won seven of its 32 attempts at this trip and is rated 77. My model's 7% estimate is above the market's 4%, suggesting a more optimistic assessment than the 20/1 price. (model 7% · fair 4%)

11Moonstone Boyreads the form

28 career runs · 8th last time · won 4 of 24 at the trip · rated 71

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin35% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 28 career runs, this horse finished eighth last time. It has won four of its 24 attempts at this trip and is rated 71. My model's 7% estimate is above the market's 3%, suggesting a more positive assessment than the 25/1 price indicates. (model 7% · fair 3%)

12Boston Danreads the form

16 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 7 at the trip · rated 77

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin41% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 16 career runs, but was well beaten last time out. It has won one of its seven attempts at this trip and is rated 77. My model gives it a 14% chance against the market's 2%, which is a significant divergence in opinion. The market's price of 33/1 suggests little confidence. (model 14% · fair 2%)

16:20Arete Foundation Fillies' HandicapFav Clementines Star 3/1 19% margin in this price36% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Haydock Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Haydock Park handicap features twelve runners with the bookmaker margin indicating a relatively open market. Clementines Star is the market favourite at 3/1, but the model estimates Pickersgill as the most likely winner. The model's probabilities range from 11% down to 6%, suggesting a competitive event where several horses are closely matched.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 136%, about 36% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Clementines Starreads the form

6 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 69

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Clementines Star has raced six times, finishing third most recently. It has a good record at the trip, with one win from three attempts, and is rated 69. The model's estimate of 11% is considerably lower than the market's 18%, making it the market favourite despite the model's reservations. (model 11% · fair 18%)

2Cypriot Diasporareads the form

32 career runs · won last time · won 3 of 19 at the trip · rated 58

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has accumulated 32 career runs, winning on its last appearance. It has three wins from nineteen attempts at this trip and is rated 58. The model and market are quite aligned here, with the model at 11% and the market at 13%. (model 11% · fair 13%)

3Pickersgillreads the form

21 career runs · 9th last time · won 1 of 12 at the trip · rated 67

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin26% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had 21 career runs, finishing ninth last time out. It has a win from twelve attempts at this trip and is rated 67. The model's estimate of 11% is slightly higher than the market's 9%, suggesting the model sees a little more promise than the price implies. (model 11% · fair 9%)

4Imeldareads the form

4 career runs · 4th last time · rated 69

Price offered7/1 = 12% chance

Bookie's margin26% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Imelda has only had four career runs, finishing fourth on its most recent start. It is rated 69, which puts it among the higher-rated horses in this field. The model's estimate of 9% aligns perfectly with the market's 9%, indicating a consensus view. (model 9% · fair 9%)

5Folkenereads the form

8 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 6 at the trip · rated 69

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin27% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Folkene has run eight times, finishing fourth on its last outing. It has one win from six attempts at this trip and is rated 69. The model's estimate of 7% is just below the market's 8%, suggesting the market is slightly more optimistic. (model 7% · fair 8%)

6Only Dream Bigreads the form

14 career runs · 5th last time · won 1 of 7 at the trip · rated 62

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin27% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 14 career runs, Only Dream Big finished fifth last time out. It has one win from seven attempts at this trip and is rated 62. The model's estimate of 6% is slightly below the market's 8%, suggesting the market is a little more hopeful. (model 6% · fair 8%)

7Magic Musicreads the form

9 career runs · 5th last time · won 1 of 8 at the trip · rated 66

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With nine career runs, Magic Music finished fifth last time out. It has one win from eight attempts at this trip and is rated 66. The model's estimate of 8% is just above the market's 7%, a very close alignment. (model 8% · fair 7%)

8Homestraitreads the form

18 career runs · 6th last time · won 3 of 13 at the trip · rated 70

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Having run 18 times, Homestrait finished sixth most recently. It has a good record at this trip, with three wins from thirteen attempts, and is rated 70. Both the model and the market agree on a 7% chance, showing a consistent assessment. (model 7% · fair 7%)

9Light The Night Upreads the form

10 career runs · 5th last time · rated 61

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had ten career runs, finishing fifth on its most recent start. It is rated 61, which is towards the lower end of the ratings in this field. The model's 7% estimate is identical to the market's 7%, suggesting a shared view. (model 7% · fair 7%)

10Gelatoreads the form

9 career runs · 5th last time · won 1 of 1 at the trip · rated 66

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin32% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Gelato has raced nine times, finishing fifth on its last outing. It has won its sole attempt at this trip and is rated 66. The model's 6% estimate is exactly in line with the market's 6%, indicating a common assessment of its prospects. (model 6% · fair 6%)

11Dream Illusionreads the form

30 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 19 at the trip · rated 66

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin35% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 30 career runs, Dream Illusion finished second on its most recent outing. It has won one of nineteen starts at this particular trip and holds a rating of 66. The model gives it 11% against the market's 5%, a notable difference in assessment. (model 11% · fair 5%)

12Toraloureads the form

14 career runs · 7th last time · rated 65

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin42% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Toralou has 14 career runs to its name, finishing seventh on its last appearance. It is rated 65, placing it in the middle of this field by rating. The model's 7% estimate is higher than the market's 4%, indicating a divergence in opinion. (model 7% · fair 4%)

16:53Betfair Supports Racing Welfare HandicapFav Naturalia 7/2 16% margin in this price29% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Haydock Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Haydock Park handicap features 13 runners and the bookmaker's margin is around 29%, indicating a competitive market. Naturalia is the market favourite at 7/2, but my model suggests Green Falcon is the most likely winner instead. The model's estimates span a relatively narrow range from 10% down to 5%, suggesting a fairly open affair.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 129%, about 29% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Naturaliareads the form

27 career runs · won last time · rated 65

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Naturalia has extensive experience with 27 career runs, and it won last time out, carrying a rating of 65. The market makes it the 7/2 favourite, reflecting confidence after that win. My model gives it 10% against the market's 17%, a notable difference in assessment. (model 10% · fair 17%)

2Tortured Soulreads the form

39 career runs · 4th last time · won 9 of 29 at the trip · rated 72

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read A very experienced runner with 39 career runs, Tortured Soul finished fourth last time and has an impressive record of nine wins from 29 starts at this trip. It is rated 72. My model gives it 5% against the market's 13%, a substantial difference in assessment. (model 5% · fair 13%)

3Blue Wonderreads the form

10 career runs · 5th last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · rated 68

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Blue Wonder has 10 career runs, finishing fifth last time, and has won one of its three starts at this specific course. It is rated 68. My model gives it 6% against the market's 11%, a noticeably less optimistic assessment. (model 6% · fair 11%)

4Star Timereads the form

10 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 6 at the trip · rated 67

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Star Time has completed 10 career runs, finishing third last time, and has won one of its six attempts at this trip. Its rating is 67. My model gives it 8% against the market's 10%, indicating a slightly less confident assessment than the price. (model 8% · fair 10%)

5Yokohamareads the form

23 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 5 at the trip · rated 72

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has 23 career runs, finishing seventh last time, and has won one of its five starts at this trip. It carries a rating of 72. My model's estimate of 8% is under the market's 10%, a slightly less optimistic view. (model 8% · fair 10%)

6Ziggy's Avengerreads the form

7 career runs · 4th last time · rated 69

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With seven career runs, Ziggy's Avenger finished fourth last time out. It has a rating of 69 in this handicap. My model gives it 6% against the market's 9%, indicating a less confident assessment than the price suggests. (model 6% · fair 9%)

7Marianitareads the form

3 career runs · 7th last time · rated 74

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With three career runs to its name, Marianita finished seventh last time out. It has a rating of 74, putting it among the higher-rated runners here. My model's estimate of 10% is higher than the market's 7%, indicating a slightly more positive view. (model 10% · fair 7%)

8Green Falconreads the form

5 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 72

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin28% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has had five career runs, with its last outing seeing it well beaten. It carries a rating of 72 in this handicap. My model gives it a 10% chance against the market's 5%, suggesting my read is considerably more optimistic than the price. (model 10% · fair 5%)

9Lightning Tigerreads the form

9 career runs · 8th last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 73

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin28% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Lightning Tiger has completed nine career runs, finishing eighth last time, and has won one of its four starts at this trip. It is rated 73. My model's 7% estimate is slightly higher than the market's 5%, suggesting a fractionally more positive read. (model 7% · fair 5%)

10Made Allreads the form

39 career runs · 6th last time · won 4 of 16 at the trip · rated 69

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin34% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read A very experienced runner with 39 career runs, Made All finished sixth last time and has won four of its 16 starts at this trip. It holds a rating of 69. My model's estimate of 8% is double the market's 4%, suggesting a more favourable view. (model 8% · fair 4%)

11Hamadhanreads the form

7 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 75

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin34% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Hamadhan has had seven career runs, finishing third last time out. Its rating of 75 makes it the highest-rated horse in this race. My model gives it 8% against the market's 4%, suggesting a more positive assessment. (model 8% · fair 4%)

12Flash Bardotreads the form

18 career runs · 2nd last time · won 2 of 13 at the trip · rated 74

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin38% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 18 career runs, Flash Bardot finished second last time and has won two of its 13 starts at this trip. It is rated 74, putting it at the top end of this field. My model's 8% estimate is significantly higher than the market's 3%. (model 8% · fair 3%)

13Lesricoreads the form

13 career runs · 7th last time · rated 64

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin38% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Lesrico has 13 career runs to its name, finishing seventh last time. It holds a rating of 64, one of the lowest in the field. My model's 6% estimate is double the market's 3%, suggesting a more favourable view. (model 6% · fair 3%)

Bangor-on-Dee7 races · avg margin 15% · model leans off the favourite in 5 of 7 · view our Bangor-on-Dee racecardopen every race ▾

13:40North Wales Business Day Novices' HurdleFav Hoe Joly Smoke 4/6 6% margin in this price10% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Bangor-on-Dee racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

A small field of five for this novices' hurdle. The bookmaker's margin of around 10% suggests a standard level of market confidence. The model here takes a different view from the market, making Iamyouare the most likely winner rather than the favourite, Hoe Joly Smoke.

2 of 5 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

Back every runner and the prices total 110%, about 10% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Hoe Joly Smokereads the form

12 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 122

Price offered4/6 = 60% chance

Bookie's margin6% of this price

Fair price5/6 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has twelve career runs, finishing second last time. It is the highest-rated in the field at 122. The model's estimate of 18% is a substantial distance from the market's 54%, implying a significant divergence in opinion regarding its prospects. (model 18% · fair 54%)

2Iamyouarereads the form

7 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 109

Price offered7/4 = 36% chance

Bookie's margin8% of this price

Fair price2/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Seven career runs, finishing second last time out. It has won one of its three attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 109. The model gives it 32% against the market's 33%, indicating a very close alignment with the public's pricing. (model 32% · fair 33%)

3That Old Chestnutlightly raced

2 career runs · well beaten last time

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Two career runs, with a well-beaten performance on its most recent outing. There is limited form to assess, making it challenging for a model to establish a strong view. The model's estimate of 20% is significantly higher than the market's 7%, suggesting it sees more potential than the crowd. (model 20% · fair 7%)

4Sovereignlightcafereads the form

6 career runs · 8th last time

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin28% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Six career runs to its name, with an eighth-place finish last time out. Its form does not immediately stand out in this company. The model's estimate of 13% sits above the market's 5%, suggesting it identifies a slightly greater chance than the price implies. (model 13% · fair 5%)

5Whinny Houstonlightly raced

2 career runs · well beaten last time

Price offered150/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin83% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With just two career runs, both resulting in it being well beaten, there is little to go on from a form perspective. The market prices it at 100/1, reflecting very low expectations. The model's 17% against the market's 1% shows a considerable difference in estimation, though both are low probabilities. (model 17% · fair 1%)

14:15Genesis Wealth Management Novices' Handicap ChFav Delgany Second Now evens 9% margin in this price17% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Bangor-on-Dee racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is an eight-runner novices' handicap chase at Bangor-on-Dee. The market shows a significant favourite in Delgany Second Now at evens, and the model also identifies it as the most likely winner. The bookmaker's margin of about 17% over a fair book is quite typical for a race of this size.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 117%, about 17% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Delgany Second Nowreads the form

6 career runs · won last time · rated 81

Price offeredevens = 50% chance

Bookie's margin9% of this price

Fair price11/8 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has six career runs, winning on its most recent outing. It is rated 81, which is towards the lower end of this field. The model's estimate of 23% is well below the market's 43%, suggesting the market is expecting a lot more from this recent winner. (model 23% · fair 43%)

2Soldier In Mayoreads the form

5 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · won 1 of 2 at the trip

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With five career runs, this horse also won last time out. It has a strong course record, winning its only start here, and has won one of two attempts at this trip. Rated 94, it is one of the highest-rated in the field, and the model's 14% estimate sits just under the market's 17%. (model 14% · fair 17%)

3Hiero Sportreads the form

10 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 85

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has ten career runs, finishing third on its last start. It has won one of four attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 85. The model gives it 12% against the market's 9%, indicating a slightly more optimistic view from the model. (model 12% · fair 9%)

4Rule Me Inreads the form

10 career runs · 4th last time · rated 86

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With ten career runs, this horse finished fourth last time out. It holds a rating of 86, which is a solid mark for this handicap. The model's 10% estimate is a shade above the market's 8%, indicating a slightly more favourable assessment from the model. (model 10% · fair 8%)

5Rockvalereads the form

8 career runs · 4th last time · rated 73

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Eight career runs, finishing fourth on its most recent start. This horse has the lowest rating in the field at 73. The model's 10% estimate is higher than the market's 8%, suggesting the model finds it a little more likely than the market price indicates. (model 10% · fair 8%)

6Barry Fifereads the form

8 career runs · 7th last time · rated 93

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Eight career runs to its name, with a seventh place finish last time. This horse is rated 93, putting it among the more experienced and higher-rated runners. The model's 11% estimate is higher than the market's 7%, suggesting the model sees more potential than the price implies. (model 11% · fair 7%)

7My Bobby's Lassreads the form

10 career runs · 6th last time · won 2 of 4 at the trip · rated 93

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Ten career runs, finishing sixth last time out. This horse has a good record at the trip, winning two of four attempts, and is rated 93. The model's 9% estimate is higher than the market's 6%, suggesting the model sees a little more promise here. (model 9% · fair 6%)

8Moonlightintheparkreads the form

5 career runs · 6th last time · rated 89

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin35% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Five career runs, finishing sixth on its most recent outing. This horse is rated 89, placing it in the middle of this field by rating. The model's estimate of 10% is considerably higher than the market's 3%, a wide divergence that suggests the market is very cool on its chances. (model 10% · fair 3%)

14:50Goffs Yorton Sale 10th September Handicap ChasFav Tamarind Bay evens 7% margin in this price12% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Bangor-on-Dee racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This six-runner handicap chase appears a fairly competitive affair, with model estimates spread from 22% down to 13%. The bookmaker's margin of about 12% suggests a standard pricing structure for a race of this type. The market has installed Tamarind Bay as the evens favourite, but my model suggests Thickthorn Tom is the most likely winner.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 112%, about 12% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Tamarind Bayreads the form

16 career runs · won last time · rated 128

Price offeredevens = 50% chance

Bookie's margin7% of this price

Fair price5/4 margin stripped

The AI's read With 16 career runs, this horse won last time and is rated 128. The market has priced it at evens, reflecting strong confidence. My model gives it 15% against the market's 45%, indicating a wide divergence in opinion on its prospects. (model 15% · fair 45%)

2Thickthorn Tomreads the form

12 career runs · won last time · rated 107

Price offered15/8 = 35% chance

Bookie's margin8% of this price

Fair price9/4 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 12 career runs to its name, most recently winning. It is rated 107, which puts it in contention here. My model gives it 22% against the market's 31%, indicating the market is somewhat more confident than my numbers. (model 22% · fair 31%)

3Regal Renaissancereads the form

21 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 120

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 21 career runs, this horse finished third last time out and has won one of its three starts at this trip. Its rating of 120 places it among the higher-rated runners. My model's estimate of 17% is notably higher than the market's 10%. (model 17% · fair 10%)

4Sure Touchreads the form

16 career runs · 4th last time · rated 133

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has made 16 career appearances, finishing fourth on its most recent outing. It carries the highest rating in the field at 133. My model gives it 16%, a significantly higher figure than the market's 7%, suggesting a substantial difference in assessment. (model 16% · fair 7%)

5Presentandcountingreads the form

19 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 115

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Having run 19 times, this horse finished third in its last race. Its rating of 115 puts it in the middle of this field. My model's estimate of 16% is considerably above the market's 6%, implying a much more positive view from my calculations. (model 16% · fair 6%)

6Homme Publicreads the form

20 career runs · 5th last time · rated 121

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin51% of this price

Fair price50/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has completed 20 career runs, finishing fifth on its last start. Its rating of 121 puts it close to the top of this field on paper. My model gives it 13% against the market's 2%, suggesting my numbers see more potential than the price implies. (model 13% · fair 2%)

15:25DU Construction Handicap HurdleFav Kiwi De Cotte 13/8 8% margin in this price12% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Bangor-on-Dee racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This five-runner handicap hurdle at Bangor-on-Dee appears to be quite open, with the model's estimates for all runners closely grouped. The bookmaker's margin of around 12% suggests a standard pricing structure for a race of this type. The model does agree with the market's assessment that Kiwi De Cotte is the most likely winner.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Kiwi De Cottereads the form

3 career runs · won last time · won 2 of 2 at the trip · rated 117

Price offered13/8 = 38% chance

Bookie's margin8% of this price

Fair price15/8 margin stripped

The AI's read With just three career runs, Kiwi De Cotte won last time out, demonstrating clear promise. Its record of two wins from two attempts at this trip is particularly encouraging, and its rating of 117 places it competitively. The model's estimate of 23% is notably lower than the market's 34%, indicating the crowd is perhaps more impressed by its recent victory. (model 23% · fair 34%)

2Ernest Grayreads the form

15 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 8 at the trip · rated 122

Price offered2/1 = 33% chance

Bookie's margin8% of this price

Fair price9/4 margin stripped

The AI's read Ernest Gray has raced 15 times, securing a second-place finish on its last start. It has won one of its eight races at this specific trip, and its rating of 122 is the highest in the field. The model's estimate of 18% is significantly below the market's 30%, which points to the market placing more weight on its recent strong run. (model 18% · fair 30%)

3Secret Trixreads the form

21 career runs · 2nd last time · won 2 of 11 at the trip · rated 120

Price offered5/2 = 29% chance

Bookie's margin9% of this price

Fair price3/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Secret Trix brings extensive experience with 21 career runs, finishing second on its most recent outing. It has won two of its eleven races at this trip and holds the joint highest rating in the field at 120. The model's estimate of 23% is very close to the market's 26%, suggesting broad agreement on its chances. (model 23% · fair 26%)

4Roger Polreads the form

17 career runs · 8th last time · won 3 of 7 at the trip · rated 121

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Roger Pol has completed 17 career runs, finishing eighth last time, and has won three of its seven attempts at this trip. Its rating of 121 makes it one of the highest-rated horses in this contest. The model's estimate of 19% is considerably higher than the market's 7%, suggesting my analysis finds more in its form than the current price implies. (model 19% · fair 7%)

5Speed Davisreads the form

14 career runs · 6th last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · won 1 of 2 at the trip

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Speed Davis has 14 career runs, finishing sixth on its last appearance. It has a course win from three attempts at Bangor-on-Dee and has won one of its two races at this trip, although its rating of 114 is the lowest here. The model's estimate of 18% is substantially higher than the market's 3%, indicating a significant divergence in assessment. (model 18% · fair 3%)

16:00Kinsey Anniversary Mares' Handicap HurdleFav I Heard A Rumour 9/4 9% margin in this price13% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Bangor-on-Dee racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This mares' handicap hurdle at Bangor-on-Dee features six runners, with the bookmaker's margin around 13% over a fair book. I Heard A Rumour is the market favourite at 2/1, but my model suggests Prettylady is the most likely winner. The model's estimates for all runners are quite close, ranging from 20% down to 14%.

1 of 6 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

Back every runner and the prices total 113%, about 13% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1I Heard A Rumourlightly raced

2 career runs · 4th last time · rated 89

Price offered9/4 = 31% chance

Bookie's margin9% of this price

Fair price11/4 margin stripped

The AI's read With just two career runs, I Heard A Rumour finished fourth on her last start and holds a rating of 89. The market makes her the 2/1 favourite, implying strong confidence. My model's 15% estimate is considerably lower than the market's 27%. (model 15% · fair 27%)

2Jammy Jayreads the form

10 career runs · 4th last time · rated 98

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price3/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Jammy Jay has completed ten career runs, with her last start resulting in a fourth-place finish. Her rating of 98 makes her the highest-rated horse in this race. The model's 16% estimate is notably lower than the market's 24%. (model 16% · fair 24%)

3Northern Rosereads the form

27 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 19 at the trip · rated 83

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin11% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This mare has extensive experience with 27 career runs, finishing seventh last time. She has won one of her nineteen attempts at this trip and is rated 83. The model's 16% estimate sits just under the market's 18%. (model 16% · fair 18%)

4Daring To Dreamreads the form

9 career runs · 4th last time · rated 83

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Daring To Dream has nine career runs to her name, finishing fourth on her most recent outing. She is rated 83, placing her in the middle of this field. My model's estimate of 19% is somewhat higher than the market's 15%. (model 19% · fair 15%)

5Miss Fedorareads the form

24 career runs · 5th last time · won 3 of 12 at the trip · rated 75

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Miss Fedora has 24 career runs, finishing fifth last time out. She has won three of her twelve starts at this trip, and her rating is 75. My model's estimate of 14% is very close to the market's 13%. (model 14% · fair 13%)

6Prettyladyreads the form

6 career runs · 9th last time · won 2 of 5 at the trip · rated 89

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With six career runs, Prettylady finished ninth last time out. She has won two of her five starts at this trip and is rated 89. My model gives her 20% against the market's 4%, suggesting a significant divergence in opinion regarding her chances. (model 20% · fair 4%)

16:35Lexus Wrexham Open 2026 Handicap ChaseFav Depalma 11/4 11% margin in this price18% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Bangor-on-Dee racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This eight-runner handicap chase appears quite open, with the model's estimates ranging from 21% down to 9%. The bookmaker's margin of about 18% suggests a typical pricing structure for a race of this nature. The market favourite, Depalma, is not the model's most likely winner; that distinction falls to Harrys Hope.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 118%, about 18% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Depalmareads the form

10 career runs · 4th last time · rated 101

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin11% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read The market favourite, Depalma, has 10 career runs and finished fourth last time out. It holds a rating of 101, which is competitive but not exceptional in this field. The model gives it 9% against the market's 23%, indicating my assessment is considerably less optimistic than the market's. (model 9% · fair 23%)

2Post Chaisereads the form

12 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 6 at the trip · rated 110

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin12% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Having run 12 times in its career, Post Chaise finished second on its last start. It has won one of its six attempts at this trip and is rated 110. The model assigns it 10% against the market's 21%, indicating a significant difference in assessment between my calculations and the public price. (model 10% · fair 21%)

3Harrys Hopereads the form

18 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 112

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 18 career runs, Harrys Hope finished second last time out. It has won one of its four attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 112, making it one of the higher-rated contenders. The model gives it 21% against the market's 17%, indicating a slightly more optimistic view from my calculations. (model 21% · fair 17%)

4Back In The Bayreads the form

10 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 101

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has completed 10 career runs, securing a second-place finish last time out. It carries a rating of 101, which puts it on a similar level to several others here. The model's estimate of 14% aligns precisely with the market's 14%, indicating a consistent view of its prospects. (model 14% · fair 14%)

5Ridin Soloreads the form

11 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 103

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Ridin Solo has 11 career runs to its name, finishing second on its most recent outing. Its rating of 103 places it in the middle of this field. The model's estimate is 16% compared to the market's 12%, suggesting my read is a little more positive than the current price. (model 16% · fair 12%)

6Limerick Leaderreads the form

20 career runs · 4th last time · rated 96

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Limerick Leader is the most experienced horse in the field with 20 career runs, finishing fourth last time. Its rating of 96 suggests it needs to find a little more to trouble the higher-rated runners. My model gives it 11% against the market's 8%, so my analysis is marginally more favourable. (model 11% · fair 8%)

7Royal Timereads the form

17 career runs · 4th last time · rated 94

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin36% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Royal Time has 17 career runs, with a fourth-place finish on its most recent outing. Its rating of 94 places it among the lower-rated horses in this contest. The model's estimate is 9% against the market's 3%, suggesting my calculations see more potential than the current price implies. (model 9% · fair 3%)

8Bahtiyarreads the form

21 career runs · 6th last time · rated 75

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin53% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 21 career runs, Bahtiyar finished sixth on its last appearance. Its rating of 75 makes it the lowest-rated horse in the race by some margin. The model's estimate is 9% against the market's 2%, suggesting my calculations find more hidden potential than the extremely long price would suggest. (model 9% · fair 2%)

17:10Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Handicap Fav Ashdown Forest 2/1 13% margin in this price25% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Bangor-on-Dee racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a competitive handicap hurdle with twelve priced runners, and the bookmaker's margin of about 25% suggests a relatively open market. The favourite, Ashdown Forest, is priced at 2/1, but my model suggests Lucky In Taipan is the most likely winner. The model's estimates for the entire field are tightly grouped, ranging from 10% down to 7%, indicating a closely contested race.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Ashdown Forestreads the form

14 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 96

Price offered2/1 = 33% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price11/4 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has fourteen career runs, finishing third on its last appearance. It is rated 96. My model's estimate of 9% is considerably lower than the market's 27%, making it the favourite in the market but not for my model. (model 9% · fair 27%)

2Ballynoe Boyreads the form

10 career runs · won last time · rated 94

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read With ten career runs, Ballynoe Boy won on its last outing and is rated 94. My model estimates its chance at 10%, which is significantly lower than the market's 21%. The market appears to be placing considerable weight on that recent win. (model 10% · fair 21%)

3Lucky In Taipanreads the form

8 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 72

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has eight career runs, finishing third last time out. It carries a rating of 72 here. My model gives it 10%, which is just under the market's 11%. This suggests the market's assessment is very close to my model's calculation. (model 10% · fair 11%)

4La Lolitareads the form

10 career runs · 4th last time · rated 95

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With ten career runs, La Lolita finished fourth on its last start. It holds a rating of 95. My model's estimate of 9% sits just below the market's 10%, indicating a very similar assessment of its prospects. (model 9% · fair 10%)

5Cappa Lassreads the form

3 career runs · 8th last time · rated 83

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Cappa Lass has had only three career runs, finishing eighth last time. It is rated 83. My model gives it 8% against the market's 6%, suggesting my read is slightly more positive than the current price. (model 8% · fair 6%)

6Present Fairreads the form

18 career runs · 7th last time · won 2 of 3 at the course · won 1 of 9 at the trip

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin27% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Present Fair has eighteen career runs, finishing seventh last time. It has a strong course record with two wins from three starts here, but only one win from nine at this trip. Rated 98, my model gives it 9% against the market's 5%, indicating a slightly more optimistic view. (model 9% · fair 5%)

7Lord Cauvellierereads the form

8 career runs · 6th last time · rated 88

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Lord Cauvelliere has eight career runs, finishing sixth last time. It is rated 88. My model's estimate of 7% is slightly above the market's 5%, suggesting a marginally more positive outlook. (model 7% · fair 5%)

8Cawthorne Crackerreads the form

18 career runs · 6th last time · won 1 of 2 at the trip · rated 78

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has eighteen career runs, finishing sixth last time. It has a good record at the trip with one win from two starts and is rated 78. My model gives it 7% against the market's 5%, a small difference in assessment. (model 7% · fair 5%)

9Bobby Socksreads the form

4 career runs · 7th last time · rated 100

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has four career runs, finishing seventh last time out. It carries the highest rating in the field at 100. My model gives it 8% against the market's 3%, a notable difference in assessment. (model 8% · fair 3%)

10Faded Fantasyreads the form

30 career runs · 5th last time · won 1 of 8 at the trip · rated 100

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Faded Fantasy has extensive experience with thirty career runs, finishing fifth last time. It has one win from eight attempts at this trip and is rated 100. My model gives it 7% against the market's 3%, suggesting a more favourable view. (model 7% · fair 3%)

11Dante's Infernoreads the form

10 career runs · 7th last time · rated 76

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With ten career runs, Dante's Inferno finished seventh on its last outing. It is rated 76. My model gives it 7% against the market's 3%, indicating a slightly higher chance than the price suggests. (model 7% · fair 3%)

12Eyeeyereads the form

21 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 94

Price offered100/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin72% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Eyeeye has twenty-one career runs and was well beaten last time out. Rated 94, my model gives it 9% against the market's 1%. This is a wide discrepancy, with the market pricing it as a significant outsider. (model 9% · fair 1%)

Ascot7 races · avg margin 23% · model leans off the favourite in 4 of 7 · view our Ascot racecardopen every race ▾

13:55Racing To School Celebrates 25 Years Lady AmatFav Dannick 4/1 15% margin in this price23% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Ascot racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Ascot handicap features 11 runners, and the bookmaker's margin of around 23% suggests a competitive event with a wide range of opinions on pricing. The market favourite is Dannick at 4/1, but my model indicates Eazy On The Eye as the most likely winner instead. The model's estimates for all runners range from 14% down to 6%, suggesting a relatively open contest.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 123%, about 23% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Dannickreads the form

20 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 73

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Dannick has run 20 times, most recently winning its last race. It has won one of its four starts at this trip and holds a rating of 73. The model's estimate of 13% sits below the market's 16%, suggesting the market is a little keener on its prospects than my numbers. (model 13% · fair 16%)

2Eazy On The Eyereads the form

20 career runs · 2nd last time · won 3 of 15 at the trip · rated 71

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has made 20 career starts, finishing second last time out. It has a good record at this trip, winning three of its 15 attempts, and is rated 71. My model's estimate of 14% aligns perfectly with the market's 14%, suggesting the price accurately reflects its chances. (model 14% · fair 14%)

3Texreads the form

14 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · rated 72

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 14 career runs, Tex finished second last time. It boasts a perfect record at this course, winning its only start here, and is rated 72. My model gives it a 14% chance, which is slightly higher than the market's 12%, indicating a slightly more optimistic view from my analysis. (model 14% · fair 12%)

4Little Empirereads the form

30 career runs · 3rd last time · won 3 of 11 at the trip · rated 81

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read A veteran of 30 career runs, Little Empire finished third on its most recent outing. It has a strong record at this trip, winning three of its eleven attempts, and is rated 81. My model's 9% estimate is lower than the market's 12%, indicating a less enthusiastic assessment of its chances. (model 9% · fair 12%)

5Cancan In The Rainreads the form

18 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 10 at the trip · rated 76

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Cancan In The Rain has had 18 career starts, finishing third last time. It has won one of its ten attempts at this trip and is rated 76. My model's 8% estimate is slightly under the market's 10%, suggesting the market is pricing it a little more generously. (model 8% · fair 10%)

6Calyxohreads the form

19 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 72

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Calyxoh has made 19 career starts, finishing third on its last appearance. It is rated 72, though no specific course or distance form is provided. My model gives it an 8% chance, which is slightly below the market's 9%, suggesting the market is marginally more optimistic. (model 8% · fair 9%)

7Atmospherereads the form

15 career runs · 5th last time · won 2 of 8 at the trip · rated 73

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Atmosphere has run 15 times, finishing fifth on its last outing. It has won two of its eight attempts at this trip and is rated 73. My model's 7% estimate is below the market's 9%, suggesting the market is a little more confident in its prospects. (model 7% · fair 9%)

8The Bitter Moosereads the form

25 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 6 at the trip · rated 68

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has run 25 times, achieving a third-place finish last time out. It has won one of its six attempts at this trip and is rated 68. My model's estimate of 8% is a shade above the market's 7%, indicating a slightly more favourable read from my analysis. (model 8% · fair 7%)

9Stratocracyreads the form

26 career runs · 5th last time · won 2 of 10 at the trip · rated 76

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 26 career starts, Stratocracy finished fifth last time. It has won two of its ten attempts at this trip and is rated 76. My model gives it a 7% chance, which is slightly above the market's 6%, indicating a marginally more positive assessment from my analysis. (model 7% · fair 6%)

10Bold Suitorreads the form

31 career runs · 6th last time · won 4 of 17 at the trip · rated 69

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin42% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Bold Suitor is a seasoned runner with 31 career starts, finishing sixth last time. It has won four of its 17 attempts at this trip and is rated 69. My model's 6% estimate is considerably higher than the market's 2%, suggesting my analysis finds more hidden potential than the current price reflects. (model 6% · fair 2%)

11Port Louisreads the form

30 career runs · 8th last time · won 1 of 14 at the trip · rated 63

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin60% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Port Louis has had 30 career runs, finishing eighth last time. It has won one of its 14 attempts at this trip and is rated 63. My model's 7% estimate is significantly higher than the market's 1%, suggesting my numbers see considerably more potential than the current price. (model 7% · fair 1%)

14:30Charbonnel et Walker EBF Maiden StakesFav Impasto 7/2 16% margin in this price26% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Ascot racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Ascot maiden features eleven runners, with a significant bookmaker margin of around 26%. The market favourite is Impasto at 7/2, but my model suggests Chymbulak is the most likely winner. The model's estimates for the field range from 14% down to 7%, indicating a fairly open contest.

A lightly-raced field (9 debutants, 2 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

Back every runner and the prices total 126%, about 26% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Impastofirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, so there is no form on record to analyse. The market has made it the 7/2 favourite, implying considerable confidence in its prospects. My model's estimate of 9% sits significantly below the market's 18%, suggesting the market sees something my model cannot measure. (model 9% · fair 18%)

2Chymbulaklightly raced

1 career run · 2nd last time

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had just one career run, finishing second last time out. That single performance provides a small data point for assessment. My model's estimate of 14% aligns precisely with the market's implied probability of 14%. (model 14% · fair 14%)

3Ayuqfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Ayuq is making its debut, so there is no form to consider. The market price of 5/1 suggests a certain level of expectation for this newcomer. My model estimates its chances at 9%, which is under the market's implied 13%. (model 9% · fair 13%)

4Korsakovfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse is a debutant, meaning there is no form available for analysis. The market has priced it at 6/1, reflecting some anticipation for its first run. My model gives it 9% against the market's 11%, a small difference in assessment. (model 9% · fair 11%)

5San Joselightly raced

1 career run · 4th last time

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read San Jose has had one career run, finishing fourth last time out. This single run offers limited insight into its potential. My model estimates its chances at 7% against the market's 11%, suggesting the market is a shade more optimistic than my calculation. (model 7% · fair 11%)

6Shimmering Shadowfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, there is no prior form to assess for Shimmering Shadow. The market price of 10/1 reflects an expectation based on other factors, not past performance. My model gives it 10% against the market's 7%, indicating a slightly more favourable view than the crowd. (model 10% · fair 7%)

7Worthawhistlefirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse is a debutant, so there is no form to consider. The market price of 10/1 reflects a degree of expectation for its first outing. My model gives it 8% against the market's 7%, which is a very close alignment. (model 9% · fair 7%)

8Senor Bluesfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin26% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, Senor Blues has no form to assess. The market price of 12/1 suggests a moderate level of expectation for its first race. My model's estimate of 9% is above the market's implied probability of 6%. (model 9% · fair 6%)

9Moon Rockfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Moon Rock is making its debut, so there is no form to analyse. The market has priced it at 16/1, indicating it is not among the front-rank contenders. My model's estimate of 9% is higher than the market's 5%, suggesting a slightly more optimistic view. (model 9% · fair 5%)

10Too Darn Regalfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, Too Darn Regal has no form to evaluate. The market has priced it at 16/1, suggesting it is not expected to be a leading contender. My model's estimate of 8% is higher than the market's 5%, indicating a small difference in assessment. (model 8% · fair 5%)

11Sky Mountainfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin45% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Sky Mountain is a debutant, so there is no form to evaluate. Its market price of 33/1 suggests it is considered a significant outsider. My model's estimate of 9% is notably higher than the market's 2%, which is a substantial divergence. (model 9% · fair 2%)

15:05Ascot Events EBF Maiden Fillies' StakesFav Clarity 5/2 13% margin in this price22% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Ascot racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Ascot maiden features eleven priced runners, with the bookmaker's margin around 22% over a fair book. Clarity is the favourite at 5/2, and the model also identifies it as the most likely winner. Model estimates for the field range from 12% down to 6%, suggesting a competitive race without a single dominant force.

A lightly-raced field (7 debutants, 3 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

Back every runner and the prices total 122%, about 22% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Clarityreads the form

3 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 80

Price offered5/2 = 29% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Clarity has had three career runs, most recently finishing second. It holds a rating of 80, which puts it among the more experienced in this field. The model's estimate of 12% sits below the market's 23%, indicating the market is more confident in its chances than the form suggests. (model 12% · fair 23%)

2Claudettefirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This filly is making her debut, so there is no form to assess. Her price of 7/2 implies significant market confidence in her ability for a first-time starter. The model gives her 9% against the market's 18%, suggesting the market is considerably more optimistic than the raw numbers can justify. (model 9% · fair 18%)

3Divide And Conquerfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, so there is no prior form for a model to analyse. The 5/1 price reflects market expectation and confidence from connections rather than any track performance. My model gives it 10% against the market's 14%, a slight divergence given the lack of data. (model 10% · fair 14%)

4Kaguyahimefirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered6/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read A debutant, Kaguyahime has no previous form to analyse. The market price of 6/1 shows a reasonable degree of expectation for her first run. The model's estimate of 9% is slightly under the market's 11%, indicating the market is marginally keener on her prospects. (model 9% · fair 11%)

5Stormhavenfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Stormhaven is a debutant, so there is no form on which to base an assessment. The 7/1 price reflects the market's anticipation for its first racecourse appearance. The model's estimate of 10% aligns exactly with the market's 10%, showing consensus on its unknown prospects. (model 10% · fair 10%)

6Comrade Alexifirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Comrade Alexi is a debutant, meaning there is no form to assess. The 12/1 price reflects the market's initial assessment of its chances on its first racecourse appearance. The model gives it 9% against the market's 6%, indicating it finds a little more promise than the crowd. (model 9% · fair 6%)

7Just Scarletlightly raced

1 career run · 4th last time

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Just Scarlet has had one career run, finishing fourth on that occasion. This single piece of form offers a starting point but little depth for analysis. The model gives it 6% against the market's 5%, indicating a very close alignment between the model and the market's view. (model 6% · fair 5%)

8Lakota Passfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, Lakota Pass has no form to consider. The market prices it at 20/1, suggesting it is not expected to be among the front-runners on this first outing. The model gives it 10% against the market's 4%, finding a little more potential than the crowd. (model 10% · fair 4%)

9Bintwillseafirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, Bintwillsea has no form to consider. The market prices it at 20/1, which suggests it is not expected to feature prominently on its first outing. The model gives it 9% against the market's 4%, indicating it sees more unmeasured potential than the current price. (model 9% · fair 4%)

10Sunset Scriptlightly raced

1 career run · 6th last time

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin41% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Sunset Script has had one career run, finishing sixth. This single outing provides limited data for a form model to interpret. The model gives it 7% against the market's 2%, suggesting the market is very cautious about its prospects after that debut. (model 7% · fair 2%)

11Sweet Katarinalightly raced

1 career run · 9th last time

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin51% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Sweet Katarina has had just one career run, finishing ninth on that occasion. With only one outing, there is limited form for a model to interpret. The model gives it 9% against the market's 2%, suggesting the market is very dismissive of its chances based on that single effort. (model 9% · fair 2%)

15:40Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice StakesFav Pure Mint 15/8 9% margin in this price15% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Ascot racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes features seven runners, with the bookmaker's margin around 15%. The market has a clear favourite in Pure Mint at 2/1, and the model also identifies this horse as the most likely winner. The model's estimates for all runners range from 19% down to 10%, suggesting a fairly open contest beyond the top few.

A lightly-raced field (1 debutant, 6 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

Back every runner and the prices total 115%, about 15% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Pure Mintlightly raced

1 career run · won last time · won 1 of 1 at the trip

Price offered15/8 = 35% chance

Bookie's margin9% of this price

Fair price9/4 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had just one career run, which was a win last time out. That victory came at this trip, giving it a perfect record over the distance. The model gives it 19% against the market's 30%, indicating the market is considerably more confident in its chances. (model 19% · fair 30%)

2Soldier Of The Sealightly raced

2 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 2 at the trip · rated 86

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin11% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Soldier Of The Sea has two career runs to its name, finishing second last time. It has won one of its two starts at this trip and holds a rating of 86. The model's estimate of 17% sits below the market's 23%, suggesting the crowd is slightly more optimistic. (model 17% · fair 23%)

3Does Mary Knowlightly raced

2 career runs · 2nd last time

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin12% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has two career runs, finishing second last time out. While it has shown some promise, it is yet to secure a win. The model gives it 11% against the market's 19%, indicating the market is pricing it more keenly than my model's estimate. (model 11% · fair 19%)

4Nobeloslightly raced

1 career run · 4th last time

Price offered7/1 = 12% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Nobelos has had one career run, finishing fourth on that occasion. This single piece of form provides a limited basis for assessment. The model gives it 10% against the market's 10%, so my estimate aligns exactly with the market's price. (model 10% · fair 10%)

5Brushstrokelightly raced

1 career run · 2nd last time

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has made one career appearance, finishing second on that occasion. With only a single run, there is limited form to assess its potential. The model gives it 15% against the market's 10%, so my read is a little keener than the price implies. (model 15% · fair 10%)

6Storm Force Tenlightly raced

2 career runs · 3rd last time

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin26% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Storm Force Ten has competed twice, finishing third in its most recent outing. With two runs under its belt, there is some experience, but no wins yet. The model gives it 13% compared to the market's 5%, suggesting my assessment is somewhat more positive than the price. (model 13% · fair 5%)

7War Chestfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin41% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, War Chest has no prior form to consider. There is nothing for a form model to hold on to in this instance. The market's 33/1 reflects a lack of expectation, and the model's estimate of 14% against the market's 3% highlights the uncertainty. (model 14% · fair 3%)

16:15Big Ascot Food & Wine Festival Classified StakFav Malachy's Wish 7/2 13% margin in this price19% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Ascot racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This eight-runner classified stakes at Ascot looks a reasonably open contest, with the model's estimates ranging from 15% down to 11%. The bookmaker's margin of about 19% suggests a standard level of uncertainty in the market's pricing. Both the market and my model agree on Malachy's Wish as the most likely winner.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 119%, about 19% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Malachy's Wishreads the form

7 career runs · 2nd last time · won 3 of 5 at the trip · rated 90

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Malachy's Wish has run seven times, finishing second last time out. It has a strong record at this trip, winning three of five attempts, and is rated 90. My model's estimate of 15% sits just under the market's 19%, indicating the crowd is slightly keener on its chances. (model 15% · fair 19%)

2Aaltoreads the form

22 career runs · 3rd last time · won 2 of 16 at the trip · rated 90

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Aalto is an experienced runner with 22 career starts, most recently finishing third. It has won two of 16 attempts at this trip and is rated 90. My model gives it 13% against the market's 17%, suggesting the market is a little more optimistic than my calculations. (model 13% · fair 17%)

3Debriefreads the form

4 career runs · won last time · rated 88

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Debrief has had only four career runs, but won last time out. It is rated 88, so there is still much for a form model to learn about its full capabilities. My model's estimate of 11% is below the market's 15%, indicating the crowd is pricing in more potential than I can currently quantify. (model 11% · fair 15%)

4Jolly Rogerreads the form

6 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 89

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Jolly Roger has run six times, finishing second on its most recent outing. It has won one of four attempts at this trip and is rated 89. My model's estimate of 13% is very close to the market's 12%, showing a broad agreement on its chances. (model 13% · fair 12%)

5Suspicious Mindzreads the form

9 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 5 at the trip · rated 88

Price offered6/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Suspicious Mindz has nine career runs, winning last time out. It has won one of five attempts at this trip and is rated 88. My model's 12% estimate is very similar to the market's 11%, indicating a consistent view of its likelihood. (model 12% · fair 11%)

6Jonny Concretereads the form

22 career runs · won last time · won 4 of 8 at the trip · rated 87

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Jonny Concrete has 22 career starts and won last time out. It has a good record at this trip, winning four of eight attempts, and is rated 87. My model's estimate of 11% is broadly in line with the market's 9%, suggesting a shared view on its prospects. (model 11% · fair 9%)

7Veblen Goodreads the form

12 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 87

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Veblen Good has 12 career runs, but was well beaten last time out. It is rated 87, and its recent performance might be a factor in its current assessment. My model's estimate of 11% is in line with the market's 9%, suggesting a similar cautious appraisal. (model 11% · fair 9%)

8Best Ratereads the form

25 career runs · 8th last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · won 1 of 14 at the trip

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 25 career runs, Best Rate finished eighth last time out. It has a perfect one-from-one record at this course and has won one of 14 at this trip, rated 86. My model's estimate of 13% is notably higher than the market's 8%, which suggests a different assessment of its prospects. (model 13% · fair 8%)

16:48Ascot Hospitality HandicapFav Ozat 11/2 20% margin in this price30% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Ascot racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Ascot Hospitality Handicap has thirteen runners and the bookmaker's margin is around 30% over a fair book. Ozat is the market favourite at 5/1, but my model suggests Hard Endeavor is the most likely winner. The model's estimates range from 13% down to 5%, indicating a fairly open contest.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 130%, about 30% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Ozatreads the form

6 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 97

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Ozat has run six times, finishing third last time out. It is the market favourite and is rated 97. My model's estimate of 8% is notably lower than the market's 12%, indicating a different view of its prospects. (model 8% · fair 12%)

2Moonfallreads the form

7 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 97

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Moonfall has seven career runs, finishing fourth last time. It has won one of three attempts at this trip and is rated 97. My model's estimate of 7% is quite a bit lower than the market's 11%. (model 7% · fair 11%)

3Zennor Stormreads the form

7 career runs · 8th last time · won 1 of 6 at the trip · rated 91

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With seven career runs, Zennor Storm finished eighth last time. It has won one of six attempts at this trip and is rated 91. My model's estimate of 6% is significantly lower than the market's 11%. (model 6% · fair 11%)

4Classicreads the form

17 career runs · 3rd last time · won 2 of 15 at the trip · rated 100

Price offered6/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Classic has seventeen career runs, finishing third last time. It has won two of fifteen attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 100. My model's estimate of 9% is just under the market's 10%. (model 9% · fair 10%)

5Hard Endeavorreads the form

6 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 6 at the trip · rated 100

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has run six times, with a second-place finish last time out. It has a win from six attempts at this trip and is rated 100. My model's estimate of 13% is somewhat higher than the market's 10%, suggesting a more positive assessment. (model 13% · fair 10%)

6Arctic Thunderreads the form

20 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · won 2 of 6 at the trip

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With twenty career runs, this horse won last time out. It has a perfect record of one win from one start at this course and two wins from six at this trip, rated 96. The model's estimate of 10% sits closely with the market's 9%. (model 10% · fair 9%)

7Spanish Voicereads the form

10 career runs · 3rd last time · won 2 of 6 at the trip · rated 94

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has ten career runs, finishing third last time. It has won two of six attempts at this trip and is rated 94. The model's estimate of 7% is a little under the market's 9%. (model 7% · fair 9%)

8Blue Rcreads the form

13 career runs · well beaten last time · won 2 of 9 at the trip · rated 104

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With thirteen career runs, Blue Rc was well beaten last time out. It has won two of nine attempts at this trip and is rated 104. The model's estimate of 7% aligns precisely with the market's 7%. (model 7% · fair 7%)

9Hickoryreads the form

24 career runs · 5th last time · won 3 of 9 at the course · won 1 of 10 at the trip

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Hickory has twenty-four career runs, finishing fifth last time. It has won three of nine attempts at this course but only one of ten at this trip, rated 95. The model's estimate of 7% is exactly in line with the market's 7%. (model 7% · fair 7%)

10Jolly Jack Tarreads the form

5 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 92

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Jolly Jack Tar has five career runs, being well beaten last time out. It is rated 92. The model's estimate of 6% is a shade higher than the market's 5%. (model 6% · fair 5%)

11Mythical Guestreads the form

27 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 78

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin31% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Mythical Guest has twenty-seven career runs, finishing third last time. It is rated 78. The model's estimate of 5% is precisely in line with the market's 5%. (model 5% · fair 5%)

12Urban Lionreads the form

16 career runs · 9th last time · won 4 of 14 at the trip · rated 99

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin39% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has sixteen career runs, finishing ninth last time. It has a good record of four wins from fourteen attempts at this trip and is rated 99. The model's estimate of 8% is considerably higher than the market's 3%. (model 8% · fair 3%)

13Witch Hunterreads the form

36 career runs · 6th last time · won 2 of 21 at the trip · rated 94

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin39% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Witch Hunter has thirty-six career runs, finishing sixth last time. It has won two of twenty-one attempts at this trip and is rated 94. My model's estimate of 6% is double the market's 3%. (model 6% · fair 3%)

17:25Sodexo Live! HandicapFav Hambelton 3/1 16% margin in this price25% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Ascot racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Ascot handicap features nine runners, with the bookmaker's margin suggesting a fairly competitive market. Hambelton is the market favourite at 3/1, but my model suggests Raging Raj is the most likely winner. The model's estimates for all runners are quite close, ranging from 15% down to 8%, indicating a relatively open contest.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Hambeltonreads the form

9 career runs · won last time · rated 82

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Hambelton has nine career runs to its name, winning last time out and boasting a rating of 82. As the market favourite at 3/1, it is clearly well-regarded. My model's estimate of 13% is noticeably under the market's 20%, suggesting the market sees more in it than my numbers can quantify. (model 13% · fair 20%)

2Star Of Commalareads the form

3 career runs · won last time · won 2 of 3 at the trip · rated 82

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read With just three career runs, Star Of Commala won last time and has won two of its three starts at this trip. It holds a rating of 82, indicating upward potential. The model's estimate of 14% sits just below the market's 16%, so the crowd is slightly keener on its prospects. (model 14% · fair 16%)

3Luansobereads the form

5 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 5 at the trip · rated 82

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Luansobe has five career runs, finishing third last time and winning one of its five starts at this trip. Its rating of 82 puts it in the mix with several other runners. The model's 13% estimate is a little under the market's 16%, indicating the market is slightly more confident. (model 13% · fair 16%)

4Raging Rajreads the form

13 career runs · won last time · won 3 of 6 at the trip · rated 85

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Raging Raj has thirteen career runs, winning last time out and three of six at this specific trip. With a rating of 85, it looks well-placed in this field. My model gives it 15% against the market's 12%, suggesting my read is slightly more optimistic than the current price. (model 15% · fair 12%)

5First Legionreads the form

11 career runs · 5th last time · rated 87

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read First Legion has eleven career runs, finishing fifth last time and holding the highest rating in the field at 87. This rating puts it among the best on paper. My model gives it 9% against the market's 12%, so the market is slightly more enthusiastic about its chances. (model 9% · fair 12%)

6Golden Brownreads the form

11 career runs · 6th last time · rated 81

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin26% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Golden Brown has eleven career runs, finishing sixth last time out and carrying a rating of 81. This places it in the middle rank of this field. My model's 8% estimate is aligned with the market's 7%, indicating a close agreement on its prospects. (model 8% · fair 7%)

7King Of Thunderreads the form

5 career runs · 6th last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 78

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin26% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read King Of Thunder has five career runs, finishing sixth last time and winning one of its four starts at this trip. It holds a rating of 78, which is towards the lower end of this field. My model's 8% estimate is in line with the market's 7%, suggesting similar expectations. (model 8% · fair 7%)

8Sapphire Stepsreads the form

8 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 78

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Sapphire Steps has eight career runs, but was well beaten last time out and has a rating of 78. This suggests it may need to find some improvement here. My model gives it 11% against the market's 6%, so my read is considerably more positive than the current price suggests. (model 11% · fair 6%)

9You Sexy Thingreads the form

8 career runs · 6th last time · won 1 of 6 at the trip · rated 73

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin43% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read You Sexy Thing has run eight times, finishing sixth last time and winning one of its six starts at this trip. Its rating of 73 makes it one of the lower-rated horses in the field. My model's 10% estimate is higher than the market's 3%, implying my numbers see more potential than the price suggests. (model 10% · fair 3%)

Down RoyalIreland8 races · avg margin 57% · model leans off the favourite in 7 of 8 · view our Down Royal racecardopen every race ▾

15:53Irish EBF Median Sires Series MaidenFav Bit Of A Buzz 10/11 26% margin in this price60% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Down Royal racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Down Royal maiden features twelve runners, with the bookmaker's margin appearing quite wide at approximately 60% over a fair book. The market has made Bit Of A Buzz a strong favourite, but the model's estimates suggest Best Love is the most likely winner. The model's probabilities range from 15% down to 5%, indicating a competitive race beyond the market's top two.

A lightly-raced field (5 debutants, 5 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

Back every runner and the prices total 160%, about 60% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Bit Of A Buzzreads the form

7 career runs · 5th last time · rated 72

Price offered10/11 = 52% chance

Bookie's margin26% of this price

Fair price2/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has seven career runs, finishing fifth last time out, and holds a rating of 72. The model gives it 6% against the market's 33%, which is a significant difference, with the model finding far less than the market's strong favourite status implies. The model cannot see what makes it such a short price. (model 6% · fair 33%)

2Best Lovereads the form

4 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 70

Price offered2/1 = 33% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has four career runs, winning last time out. It has won one of three starts at this trip and holds a rating of 70. The model's estimate of 15% sits notably below the market's 21%, suggesting the crowd is slightly more optimistic than the model's calculations. (model 15% · fair 21%)

3Tango Clublightly raced

2 career runs · 5th last time

Price offered9/4 = 31% chance

Bookie's margin31% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Tango Club has had two career runs, finishing fifth on its most recent start. The model gives it 5% against the market's 19%, indicating the model finds significantly less in its form than the market's assessment. Its two runs have not yet yielded a placed finish. (model 5% · fair 19%)

4Gus Mccraelightly raced

1 career run · 7th last time

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin43% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Gus Mccrae has had one career run, finishing seventh on that occasion. The model gives it 6% against the market's 9%, so the model's read is a little cooler than the price implies. That single run offers limited information for a full assessment. (model 6% · fair 9%)

5Premier Viewlightly raced

1 career run · 8th last time

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin69% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Premier View has had just one career run, finishing eighth on that occasion. The model gives it 10% against the market's 3%, indicating the model finds more in that debut than the market's assessment. There is limited form to go on from just a single run. (model 10% · fair 3%)

6Monologuefirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin69% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Monologue is a debutant, so there is no form available to assess. The market's 20/1 reflects an unproven profile. The model gives it 6% against the market's 3%, which suggests the model finds a little more in its unknown potential than the market's assessment. (model 6% · fair 3%)

7Savannah Sunlightly raced

1 career run · well beaten last time

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin73% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has run once in its career, finishing well beaten on that debut. The model gives it 8% against the market's 2%, suggesting the model finds a little more promise than the price implies. That single run provides minimal data for a comprehensive form analysis. (model 8% · fair 2%)

8Implyfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin73% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, Imply has no prior form to consider. The market's price of 25/1 reflects an expectation based on connections or private work. The model's estimate of 7% sits above the market's 2%, which is a way of saying the model sees a slightly better chance than the crowd's pricing. (model 7% · fair 2%)

9Spirit Of The Nitefirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin73% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant with no form to analyse. The price of 25/1 is based on expectation rather than track performance. The model gives it 6% against the market's 2%, suggesting the model's read is a shade keener than the market on this newcomer. (model 6% · fair 2%)

10Habufirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin73% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read A debutant, Habu has no form to consider. The market's 25/1 is based on connections and private work. The model gives it 6% against the market's 2%, indicating the model's estimate is a little higher than the crowd's pricing for this newcomer. (model 6% · fair 2%)

11Lady Quigleyfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin73% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Lady Quigley is a debutant, so there is no form to examine. The market's 25/1 is a reflection of an unknown quantity. The model gives it 6% against the market's 2%, suggesting the model's read of its chances is slightly more optimistic than the market's price. (model 6% · fair 2%)

12Invincible Irishlightly raced

2 career runs · well beaten last time

Price offered100/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin92% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Invincible Irish has had two career runs, finishing well beaten on its most recent outing. The model gives it 7% against the market's 1%, which indicates the model finds more in the limited form than the market's very long price. The bare results of its two runs are not strong. (model 7% · fair 1%)

16:25Irish Stallion Farms EBF MaidenFav Forza Magico 6/5 15% margin in this price28% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Down Royal racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Down Royal maiden race features twelve runners, with the bookmaker's margin standing at approximately 28% over a fair book. The favourite is Forza Magico at 5/4, yet my model suggests Kiss Don't Tell is the most likely contender. The model's estimates span from 11% down to 5%, indicating a fairly open contest with no single dominant force according to my calculations.

6 of 12 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

Back every runner and the prices total 128%, about 28% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Forza Magicolightly raced

2 career runs · 2nd last time

Price offered6/5 = 45% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price15/8 margin stripped

The AI's read With two career runs, this horse finished second last time out, which has made it the 5/4 favourite. My model gives it a 7% chance, which is a significant departure from the market's 35%. The market's confidence in this runner is much higher than my model's calculation. (model 7% · fair 35%)

2Otsanalightly raced

1 career run · 5th last time

Price offered7/4 = 36% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price5/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Otsana has had one career run, finishing fifth. The market has made it second favourite at 7/4. My model gives it a 6% chance, which is substantially lower than the market's 28% implied probability, indicating a significant difference in assessment. (model 6% · fair 28%)

3Osterodelightly raced

2 career runs · 5th last time

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Osterode has two career runs, finishing fifth last time out. The market has it at 4/1, making it one of the more fancied runners. My model gives it a 5% chance, which is considerably lower than the market's 16% implied probability. (model 5% · fair 16%)

4Kiss Don't Tellreads the form

5 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 60

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin31% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has five career runs, though was well beaten on its last outing and holds a rating of 60. My model gives it an 11% chance, which is notably higher than the market's 7% at 10/1. The model's read is considerably more optimistic than the market's on this occasion. (model 11% · fair 7%)

5In The Gloamingreads the form

5 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 64

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin31% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has made five career starts, being well beaten in its most recent appearance and holding a rating of 64. My model's estimate of 8% is broadly in line with the market's 7% at 10/1. The market and model appear to be in reasonable agreement here. (model 8% · fair 7%)

6Tudor Flamefirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin59% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, so there is no prior form for analysis. The market has it at 33/1, reflecting the unknown quantity. My model gives it a 6% chance, which sits above the market's 2% implied probability, suggesting a slightly more positive outlook from my calculations. (model 6% · fair 2%)

7Gaineamh Minlightly raced

1 career run · well beaten last time

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin75% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has just one career run, where it was well beaten. The market has priced it at 66/1, reflecting that performance. My model gives it a 9% chance, which is much higher than the market's 1% implied probability. (model 9% · fair 1%)

8Orellanalightly raced

1 career run · well beaten last time

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin75% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Orellana has run once in its career, finishing well beaten. The market has it at 66/1, indicating it is a longshot. My model's 7% estimate is considerably above the market's 1% implied chance, suggesting a divergence in opinion. (model 7% · fair 1%)

9Banish Misfortunereads the form

4 career runs · well beaten last time

Price offered150/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin88% of this price

Fair price200/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With four career runs to its name, this runner was well beaten last time out. The market has it at 100/1, implying little chance. My model's estimate of 9% is significantly above the market's 1%, suggesting a substantial difference in assessment. (model 9% · fair 1%)

10Sassy Boomreads the form

4 career runs · 8th last time

Price offered150/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin88% of this price

Fair price200/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Four career runs for Sassy Boom, finishing eighth last time out. The market price of 100/1 suggests it is not expected to feature prominently. My model's 8% estimate is considerably higher than the market's 1%, indicating a different view of its prospects. (model 8% · fair 1%)

11Sarfarcatreads the form

4 career runs · well beaten last time

Price offered200/1 = 0% chance

Bookie's margin91% of this price

Fair price200/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Four career runs for Sarfarcat, with its last outing seeing it well beaten. The market has priced it at 200/1, indicating it is not expected to be competitive. My model's 6% estimate is considerably higher than the market's 0% implied chance. (model 6% · fair 0%)

12Basilanoreads the form

3 career runs · 8th last time

Price offered200/1 = 0% chance

Bookie's margin93% of this price

Fair price200/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had three career runs, finishing eighth last time out. The market price of 200/1 suggests it is considered to have very little chance. My model gives it a 7% chance, which is a notable difference from the market's 0% implied probability. (model 7% · fair 0%)

16:58Irish EBF Auction Series MaidenFav Whosinterviewinwho 13/8 17% margin in this price35% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Down Royal racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Down Royal maiden has 14 runners and appears fairly open, with the bookmaker's margin sitting around 35%. The market has made Whosinterviewinwho the favourite at 6/4, but my model suggests Sovreigns Joy is the most likely winner. Model estimates for the field range from 9% down to 4%, indicating a competitive affair.

A lightly-raced field (5 debutants, 8 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

Back every runner and the prices total 135%, about 35% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Whosinterviewinwhoreads the form

3 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 80

Price offered13/8 = 38% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price5/2 margin stripped

The AI's read With three career runs and a rating of 80, this horse finished second last time out. This form places it among the more experienced runners in the field. The market has made it the favourite at 6/4, giving it 28%, while my model's estimate is 7%, indicating a significant divergence in opinion. (model 7% · fair 28%)

2Sovreigns Joylightly raced

2 career runs · 2nd last time

Price offered2/1 = 33% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price3/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has two career runs, with a second-place finish last time out. This suggests a degree of promise in its short career. My model gives it 9% against the market's 25%, marking it as the most likely winner in my estimation, despite the market being keener. The price reflects strong market confidence in its progression. (model 9% · fair 25%)

3Letmeentertainyoulightly raced

2 career runs · 4th last time

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has two career runs, finishing fourth last time out. This suggests some ability, though it has not yet won. My model gives it 4% against the market's 14%, a notable difference where the market is considerably more confident in its chances. (model 4% · fair 14%)

4Gabby Hayeslightly raced

2 career runs · 6th last time

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Having run twice, this horse finished sixth on its most recent outing. This offers some initial data, though it has not yet shown winning form. My model gives it 6% against the market's 7%, which indicates a broadly similar assessment to the market's pricing. (model 6% · fair 7%)

5Essence Of Timelightly raced

1 career run · 7th last time

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin32% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has had just one career run, finishing seventh. There is limited form available for a model to assess its true ability. My model's estimate of 7% is slightly above the market's 6%, suggesting a small degree of optimism from my perspective compared to the crowd. (model 7% · fair 6%)

6Ippylightly raced

2 career runs · well beaten last time

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin32% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has had two career runs and was well beaten on its last outing. Its form has not yet shown significant promise. My model gives it 4% against the market's 6%, indicating my model is a little less optimistic than the market's pricing for this horse. (model 4% · fair 6%)

7Postponing Realityfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, so there is no form history to analyse for this runner. Its 16/1 price suggests some underlying hope or stable support. My model gives it 6% against the market's 4%, suggesting my read is a fraction more positive than the market's, even in the absence of form. (model 6% · fair 4%)

8Byzantine Goldfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin53% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse is a debutant, meaning there is no prior form for analysis. The market has priced it at 33/1, reflecting a low expectation for its first run. My model gives it 6% against the market's 2%, which shows my model assigns it a slightly higher probability than the market does for a newcomer. (model 6% · fair 2%)

9Petroliolightly raced

1 career run · 6th last time

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin53% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With one career run resulting in a sixth-place finish, there is limited form to evaluate. This makes it difficult to ascertain its current level of ability. My model gives it 5% against the market's 2%, suggesting my model sees a slightly higher chance than the market's longer odds. (model 5% · fair 2%)

10Spanish Viewlightly raced

2 career runs · well beaten last time

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin64% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has had two career runs and was well beaten last time out. Its form so far is not inspiring, offering little for a model to build on. My model gives it 5% against the market's 1%, indicating my model sees a slightly greater chance than the market's long odds suggest. (model 5% · fair 1%)

11Rosilianefirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin64% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, this horse has no racecourse form to assess its capabilities. The market has priced it at 50/1, implying it is not expected to feature prominently. My model gives it 5% against the market's 1%, suggesting my model sees a marginally higher chance than the market for this newcomer. (model 5% · fair 1%)

12Earthwarmingfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin64% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse is a debutant, so there is no form history available. The market has priced it at 50/1, which indicates a low expectation for its first race. My model gives it 5% against the market's 1%, suggesting my model's estimate is a little more optimistic than the market's for a horse without form. (model 5% · fair 1%)

13Knockraha Pafirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin70% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, this horse has no form to consider, making it difficult for any model to assess its potential. The market has priced it at 66/1, implying very little expectation. My model gives it 6% against the market's 1%, which is a way of saying my model sees a slightly higher chance than the market, even with no form. (model 6% · fair 1%)

14Melchizedeklightly raced

1 career run · well beaten last time

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin70% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With only one career run, where it was well beaten, there is very little form to go on. This makes it challenging to gauge its true ability or potential improvement. My model gives it 5% against the market's 1%, suggesting my model finds a slightly higher probability than the market's pricing. (model 5% · fair 1%)

17:30Grant Thornton Nursery HandicapFav Elyatta 5/2 15% margin in this price27% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Down Royal racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Down Royal nursery handicap has ten runners, and the bookmaker's margin of 27% suggests a fairly typical pricing structure for such a race. The market has Elyatta as favourite at 5/2, but my model sees Romance as the most likely winner. The model's estimates are quite compressed, ranging from 11% down to 8%, indicating a competitive affair where several horses are closely matched.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 127%, about 27% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Elyattareads the form

4 career runs · 4th last time · rated 60

Price offered5/2 = 29% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Elyatta has completed four career runs, securing a fourth-place finish last time out. Its current rating is 60. The market makes it the 5/2 favourite at 23%, while my model's estimate is 11%, indicating a substantial difference in opinion between the market and my calculations. (model 11% · fair 23%)

2Romancereads the form

3 career runs · 6th last time · rated 68

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Romance has had three career runs, finishing sixth on its most recent outing. Its current rating is 68. My model estimates its chance at 11% against the market's 20%, suggesting the market is significantly more optimistic about its prospects. It is the model's most likely winner, despite the market's cooler assessment. (model 11% · fair 20%)

3Fine Linereads the form

5 career runs · 4th last time · rated 61

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Fine Line has five career runs to its name, finishing fourth on its most recent outing. It is rated 61. My model gives it an 11% chance, which is somewhat under the market's 18%, indicating the market is slightly more confident about its chances than my analysis. (model 11% · fair 18%)

4Someday Somewherereads the form

4 career runs · 5th last time · rated 69

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Someday Somewhere has four career runs, finishing fifth on its most recent outing. It is rated 69, the highest in this field. My model estimates its chance at 9% against the market's 16%, suggesting the market is notably more positive about its prospects. (model 9% · fair 16%)

5Thelymitrareads the form

3 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 62

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Thelymitra has three career runs, finishing well beaten on its last start. Its current rating is 62. My model estimates its chance at 10%, which is above the market's 6%, suggesting my read is a little more positive than the price reflects. (model 10% · fair 6%)

6Summer Sent Youreads the form

3 career runs · 5th last time · rated 62

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Summer Sent You has three career runs, finishing fifth on its most recent outing. It holds a rating of 62. My model gives it an 8% chance, which is close to the market's 6%, indicating a broadly similar assessment of its prospects. (model 8% · fair 6%)

7Dear Theodosiareads the form

3 career runs · 9th last time · rated 55

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin38% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Dear Theodosia has had three career runs, finishing ninth on its most recent start. It carries a rating of 55. My model estimates its chance at 11%, which is considerably higher than the market's 4%, suggesting my assessment of its prospects is much keener than the current price. (model 11% · fair 4%)

8Arizonaneargalwayreads the form

4 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 64

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin43% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Arizonaneargalway has run four times in its career, finishing well beaten on its last appearance. It holds a rating of 64. My model gives it an 11% chance, which is notably higher than the market's 3%, implying my read is considerably more positive than the price on offer. (model 11% · fair 3%)

9Ballymackneyreads the form

3 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 54

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin43% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Ballymackney has had three career runs, finishing well beaten on its last start. It carries a rating of 54. My model estimates its chance at 8%, which is considerably higher than the market's 3%, suggesting my assessment is more positive than the current price. (model 8% · fair 3%)

10Rathbran Ladyreads the form

3 career runs · 7th last time · rated 52

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin50% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Rathbran Lady has had three career runs, finishing seventh on its most recent start. It holds a rating of 52. My model gives it a 10% chance, which is significantly higher than the market's 2%, indicating my assessment is far more optimistic than the price. (model 10% · fair 2%)

18:00Grant Thornton Ulster Cesarewitch HandicapFav Trubshaw 9/4 27% margin in this price59% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Down Royal racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a large field of 17 runners for the Ulster Cesarewitch Handicap, with the bookmaker's margin suggesting a competitive market. Trubshaw is the market favourite at 2/1, but my model sees Golden Temple as the most likely winner. The model's estimates range from 8% down to 4%, indicating a race without a truly dominant contender on paper.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 159%, about 59% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Trubshawreads the form

15 career runs · won last time · rated 74

Price offered9/4 = 31% chance

Bookie's margin27% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read The market favourite at 2/1, this horse has 15 career runs and won last time out, arriving in good form. It is rated 74. My model gives it 6%, which is a considerable distance from the market's 19%, suggesting the market is much keener on its chances than my analysis. (model 6% · fair 19%)

2Boxing Greatreads the form

13 career runs · won last time · rated 74

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin28% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse comes into the race having won its last start, its 13th career run, and holds a rating of 74. It is clearly in good form, reflected in its market price. However, my model's estimate of 7% sits notably below the market's 17%, indicating the market is more enthusiastic about its chances. (model 7% · fair 17%)

3Ragmans Cornerreads the form

28 career runs · won last time · rated 80

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read A seasoned runner with 28 career starts, this horse won last time out and is rated 80, making it one of the higher-rated in the field. Its recent form is strong. My model gives it 6%, which is a fair way below the market's 14%, suggesting the market is more optimistic about its chances. (model 6% · fair 14%)

4Cooley's Mistreads the form

11 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 66

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin31% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 11 career runs to its name and finished second last time out, showing good recent form. It is rated 66 for this handicap. My model's estimate of 6% is significantly lower than the market's 13%, indicating the market sees more potential than my analysis. (model 6% · fair 13%)

5Gangster Grannyreads the form

31 career runs · won last time · rated 68

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has a wealth of experience with 31 career runs and won last time out, indicating current good form. It carries a rating of 68 in this handicap. My model gives it 7%, which is very close to the market's 8%, suggesting a largely aligned view of its prospects at 7/1. (model 7% · fair 8%)

6Yoginireads the form

3 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 74

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin39% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With only 3 career runs, this horse was well beaten last time out, so its form is still very much unproven. It holds a rating of 74. My model gives it 5%, which is slightly below the market's 7%, indicating the market sees a little more promise in its limited form. (model 5% · fair 7%)

7Banana Threereads the form

19 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 70

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin49% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 19 career runs, this horse finished third last time out, indicating some recent promise. It is rated 70. My model gives it 4%, which aligns exactly with the market's 4%, suggesting a consistent view of its prospects at 12/1. (model 4% · fair 4%)

8Alba Chiarareads the form

11 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 5 at the course · won 1 of 1 at the trip

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin57% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Having run 11 times, this horse finished fourth on its last outing and boasts a course win from five attempts here. It has a perfect record from its single start at this trip and is rated 69. My model gives it 7% against the market's 3%, suggesting it is being underestimated by the market at 20/1. (model 7% · fair 3%)

9Way Down Southreads the form

21 career runs · 5th last time · won 1 of 2 at the trip · rated 71

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin57% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 21 career runs, this horse finished fifth last time out and has won one of its two starts at this trip. It is rated 71. My model gives it 5% against the market's 3%, suggesting it might be a marginally better prospect than its 20/1 price implies. (model 5% · fair 3%)

10Zoffmanreads the form

22 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 73

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin62% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 22 career runs, this horse was well beaten last time out, which is a concern for current form. It holds a rating of 73. My model gives it 6% against the market's 2%, suggesting it might be a slightly better prospect than its 25/1 price implies despite the last run. (model 6% · fair 2%)

11Cozonereads the form

27 career runs · 5th last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 70

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin62% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 27 career runs, finishing fifth last time out, and has won one of its four starts at this trip. It is rated 70. My model gives it 5% against the market's 2%, suggesting it might be a slightly stronger contender than its 25/1 price implies. (model 5% · fair 2%)

12Golden Templereads the form

26 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 1 at the trip · rated 71

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin68% of this price

Fair price50/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 26 career runs, this horse finished second last time out and has won its only start at this trip. Its rating of 71 puts it in the mix for this handicap. My model gives it 8% against the market's 2%, suggesting a much stronger prospect than the 33/1 price implies. (model 8% · fair 2%)

13Sign From Abovereads the form

18 career runs · 6th last time · rated 71

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin68% of this price

Fair price50/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 18 career runs, finishing sixth last time out, and is rated 71. Its recent form is moderate. My model gives it 5% against the market's 2%, suggesting it might have a somewhat better chance than its 33/1 price suggests. (model 5% · fair 2%)

14Happy Jackyreads the form

20 career runs · 4th last time · won 2 of 2 at the course · won 1 of 1 at the trip

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin77% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 20 career runs, this horse finished fourth last time and has an excellent record at this course, winning both of its starts here. It also has a perfect record from its single start at this trip and is rated 74. My model's 7% is considerably higher than the market's 1% for this 50/1 shot. (model 7% · fair 1%)

15Feudreads the form

11 career runs · 5th last time · rated 72

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin82% of this price

Fair price100/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 11 career runs, this horse finished fifth last time out and is rated 72. Its form is consistent but not standout. My model gives it 5% against the market's 1%, suggesting it may be a more plausible prospect than its 66/1 price indicates. (model 5% · fair 1%)

16Sanctity Of Spacereads the form

6 career runs · 7th last time · rated 68

Price offered100/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin88% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has only 6 career runs, finishing seventh last time out, so its form is still developing. It carries a rating of 68. My model gives it 6% against the market's 1%, indicating it might have a slightly better chance than its very long 100/1 price suggests. (model 6% · fair 1%)

17Deralo Irreads the form

3 career runs · 6th last time · rated 67

Price offered100/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin88% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has only 3 career runs, finishing sixth last time out, so its form is very much an open question. It is rated 67. My model gives it 5% against the market's 1%, suggesting it might have a slightly better chance than its very long 100/1 price suggests. (model 5% · fair 1%)

18:30Children's Heartbeat Trust Apprentice HandicapFav Sinbad My Dad 3/1 38% margin in this price91% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Down Royal racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a large apprentice handicap with 17 runners, and the bookmaker's margin of about 91% over a fair book suggests a competitive pricing landscape. The market favourite is Sinbad My Dad at 3/1, but the model instead makes Berto Ramirez the most likely contender. The model's estimates range from 9% down to 4%, indicating a fairly open contest.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 191%, about 91% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Sinbad My Dadreads the form

30 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 68

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin38% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read The market favourite, Sinbad My Dad, has 30 career runs and finished second last time. It is rated 68, one of the higher ratings in the field. The model gives it a 6% chance, which is notably lower than the market's 13%. (model 6% · fair 13%)

2Sweet Baby Zoureads the form

9 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 68

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin40% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Sweet Baby Zou has made nine career starts, finishing third most recently. It is rated 68, putting it among the higher-rated runners here. The model's estimate of 8% is lower than the market's 12% for this runner. (model 8% · fair 12%)

3A Pretty Pennyreads the form

11 career runs · won last time · rated 64

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin41% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 11 career runs to its name and impressively won its last race. It is rated 64, which is a competitive mark in this field. The model gives it a 7% chance, which is slightly under the market's 10% estimate. (model 7% · fair 10%)

4Darkdeserthighwayreads the form

25 career runs · 4th last time · rated 68

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin44% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 25 career runs, finishing fourth in its most recent outing. It is rated 68, placing it among the more experienced and higher-rated runners. The model's 5% estimate is lower than the market's 9%. (model 5% · fair 9%)

5Chestnut Palacereads the form

6 career runs · 4th last time · rated 63

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin44% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read In six career runs, Chestnut Palace finished fourth last time out. It is rated 63, one of the lower ratings in this handicap. The model's 4% estimate is lower than the market's 9% for this runner. (model 4% · fair 9%)

6Good Man Jackreads the form

5 career runs · 8th last time · rated 64

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin45% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With five career runs, Good Man Jack finished eighth in its most recent start. It is rated 64, making it a mid-range contender in this handicap. The model's 5% estimate is lower than the market's 8%. (model 5% · fair 8%)

7Lough Leanereads the form

29 career runs · 4th last time · rated 65

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin45% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Lough Leane has 29 career runs, finishing fourth last time out. It is rated 65, which is a solid mark for this type of race. The model's 4% estimate is lower than the market's 8%. (model 4% · fair 8%)

8Hexagonalreads the form

17 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 66

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin51% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Hexagonal has 17 career runs and won last time out, showing good recent form. It has also won one of three starts at this trip and is rated 66. The model's estimate of 6% aligns perfectly with the market's 6% estimate. (model 6% · fair 6%)

9Chosen Onereads the form

5 career runs · 8th last time · rated 69

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin51% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Chosen One has five career runs, finishing eighth last time out. It is rated 69, which is the highest rating in this field. The model's 5% estimate is slightly under the market's 6% for this horse. (model 5% · fair 6%)

10Berto Ramirezreads the form

22 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 2 at the course · rated 66

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin55% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has run 22 times in its career, finishing fourth last time out. It has a good record at this course, winning one of two starts there, and is rated 66. The model gives it a 9% chance, which is higher than the market's 5% estimate. (model 9% · fair 5%)

11Areanareads the form

12 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · won 2 of 7 at the trip

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin55% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Areana has 12 career runs and was well beaten last time out. It has won its only start at this course and two of seven at this trip, rated 68. The model's estimate of 5% aligns with the market's 5% estimate. (model 5% · fair 5%)

12Enchanted Ladyreads the form

6 career runs · 7th last time · rated 65

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin69% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Enchanted Lady has only six career runs, finishing seventh last time. It is rated 65, suggesting it has scope for improvement. The model's 5% estimate is higher than the market's 2% for this runner. (model 5% · fair 3%)

13Doctor Gracereads the form

46 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · won 2 of 27 at the trip

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin74% of this price

Fair price50/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 46 career runs, Doctor Grace was well beaten in its last outing. It has won one of three starts at this course and two of 27 at this trip, rated 68. The model's estimate of 9% is significantly higher than the market's 2%. (model 9% · fair 2%)

14Showyoutheropesreads the form

13 career runs · 9th last time · won 1 of 6 at the trip · rated 65

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin79% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read In 13 career runs, Showyoutheropes finished ninth last time out. It has won one of six starts at this trip and is rated 65. The model's estimate of 6% is considerably higher than the market's 2% for this horse. (model 6% · fair 2%)

15Daonethatgotawayreads the form

34 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 66

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin79% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 34 career runs, Daonethatgotaway was well beaten in its last race. It is rated 66, a mark it has run off many times. The model's 5% estimate is higher than the market's 2% for this runner. (model 5% · fair 2%)

16Solomonreads the form

20 career runs · 6th last time · won 2 of 6 at the trip · rated 67

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin79% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Solomon has 20 career runs, finishing sixth last time out. It has won two of six starts at this trip and is rated 67. The model's 4% estimate is higher than the market's 2% for this horse. (model 5% · fair 2%)

17Solomon Coopreads the form

16 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 1 at the trip · rated 69

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin89% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Solomon Coop has made 16 career runs and was well beaten last time out. It has won its only start at this trip and is rated 69, the highest in the field. The model gives it a 5% chance, significantly higher than the market's 1%. (model 5% · fair 1%)

19:00Grant Thornton Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)Fav Miss Australie 2/1 28% margin in this price62% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Down Royal racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Down Royal handicap is a wide-open contest with 17 runners. The bookmaker's margin of about 62% over a fair book is notably high. The model does not align with the market favourite, Miss Australie, instead making Piatra Neamt the most likely winner.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 162%, about 62% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Miss Australiereads the form

20 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 8 at the trip · rated 66

Price offered2/1 = 33% chance

Bookie's margin28% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 20 career runs, Miss Australie won last time and has won one of eight attempts at this trip. Rated at 66, it is the highest rated in the field. The model's 8% estimate is significantly lower than the market's 21%, making it the most notable divergence. (model 8% · fair 21%)

2Flagstone Ladyreads the form

6 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 49

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Flagstone Lady has run six times, finishing third on its most recent outing. With a rating of 49, it sits in the middle of this field. The model's 7% estimate is less than half of the market's 15%, indicating a more cautious view. (model 7% · fair 15%)

3Limestone Redreads the form

28 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 47

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin31% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 28 career runs, finishing third last time, and is rated 47. The model's 5% estimate is significantly lower than the market's 14%. The market appears to be much keener on its prospects. (model 5% · fair 14%)

4Lariatreads the form

19 career runs · 8th last time · rated 40

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin31% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Lariat has 19 career runs, finishing eighth last time, and is rated 40. The model's 5% estimate is considerably less than the market's 14%. The market seems to be rating its chances much higher. (model 5% · fair 14%)

5Maxwell Smartreads the form

35 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 4 at the course · won 1 of 12 at the trip

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin36% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is an experienced runner with 35 career starts, finishing fourth last time. It has won one of four attempts at this course and one of 12 at this trip. Rated 50, its model estimate of 7% sits just under the market's 9%. (model 7% · fair 9%)

6Vervainreads the form

15 career runs · 5th last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 55

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin49% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Vervain has 15 career runs to its name, finishing fifth last time, and has won one of three at this trip. Rated 55, the model's 6% estimate is very close to the market's 5%. There is little difference in opinion here. (model 6% · fair 5%)

7No More Hidingreads the form

7 career runs · 5th last time · rated 54

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin49% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read No More Hiding has seven career runs, finishing fifth last time, and is rated 54. The model's 5% estimate is exactly in line with the market's 5%. There is no divergence in assessment for this runner. (model 5% · fair 5%)

8Plains Indianreads the form

12 career runs · 4th last time · rated 60

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin49% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Plains Indian has 12 career runs, finishing fourth last time, and is rated 60. The model's 4% estimate is slightly under the market's 5%. There is a small difference in their respective assessments. (model 4% · fair 5%)

9Piatra Neamtreads the form

10 career runs · 8th last time · rated 43

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin55% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had 10 career runs, finishing eighth last time out and holds a rating of 43. The model gives it an 8% chance, which is double the market's 4%. This suggests the model sees more potential than the current price indicates. (model 8% · fair 4%)

10Quinchy Ladyreads the form

3 career runs · 7th last time · rated 54

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin72% of this price

Fair price50/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Having run three times, Quinchy Lady finished seventh on its last start and is rated 54. The model gives it a 7% chance, which is considerably higher than the market's 2%. This is a significant difference in assessment. (model 7% · fair 2%)

11God Of Thunderreads the form

41 career runs · well beaten last time · won 3 of 21 at the trip · rated 56

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin80% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 41 career runs, God Of Thunder was well beaten last time but has won three of 21 attempts at this trip. Rated 56, the model's 6% estimate is well above the market's 1%, indicating a potentially overlooked profile. (model 6% · fair 1%)

12Coul Dorereads the form

7 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 51

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin80% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With seven career runs, Coul Dore was well beaten on its last outing and is rated 51. The model's 5% estimate is notably higher than the market's 1%. This indicates the model finds more merit than the price suggests. (model 5% · fair 1%)

13Jazz Foreverreads the form

25 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 51

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin80% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Jazz Forever has 25 career runs, finishing well beaten last time, and is rated 51. The model's 5% estimate is five times that of the market's 1%. This represents a considerable difference in their respective assessments. (model 5% · fair 1%)

14Invincible Destinyreads the form

4 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 53

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin84% of this price

Fair price100/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With four career runs, Invincible Destiny was well beaten last time and is rated 53. The model's 5% estimate is notably higher than the market's 1%. This suggests the model sees more underlying potential. (model 5% · fair 1%)

15Premier Princessreads the form

5 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 52

Price offered100/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin89% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Premier Princess has had five career runs and was well beaten last time out. Rated 52, the model gives it a 6% chance, a notable increase over the market's 1%. This suggests the model sees more underlying ability. (model 6% · fair 1%)

16Money Shufflerreads the form

8 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 45

Price offered100/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin89% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Money Shuffler has made eight career starts and was well beaten in its last race. Rated 45, the model's 6% estimate is considerably more optimistic than the market's 1%. This is a wide gap in perception. (model 6% · fair 1%)

17Princess Rosiereads the form

5 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 51

Price offered100/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin89% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Princess Rosie has five career runs, with a well-beaten effort last time. Rated 51, the model gives it a 5% chance, which is five times higher than the market's 1%. This suggests a substantial difference in assessment. (model 5% · fair 1%)

19:30Grant Thornton Handicap (0-60) (Div 2)Fav Idomything 4/5 34% margin in this price94% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Down Royal racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Down Royal handicap is a large field with 17 priced runners. The market has priced the favourite, Idomything, at 5/6, making it a very strong market leader. My model also identifies Idomything as the most likely contender, though with a much lower probability, suggesting a significant divergence in opinion for the favourite. The bookmaker's margin is around 94% over a fair book.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

Back every runner and the prices total 194%, about 94% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Idomythingreads the form

20 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 13 at the trip · rated 40

Price offered4/5 = 56% chance

Bookie's margin34% of this price

Fair price5/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 20 career runs, but was well beaten on its last outing. It has won just one of its 13 attempts at this trip, and its rating is 40. My model gives it 9% against the market's 29%, indicating a substantial difference in assessment of its chances compared to the market. The market is pricing it as a strong favourite despite the model's lower estimate. (model 9% · fair 29%)

2Dancing Stevereads the form

29 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 56

Price offered9/4 = 31% chance

Bookie's margin41% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Dancing Steve has made 29 career starts, finishing third on its most recent outing, and is rated 56. My model gives it 6% against the market's 16%, indicating a considerable gap in perception. The market has priced it as a leading contender, much keener than the model. (model 6% · fair 16%)

3Charlie Brow'nreads the form

17 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 59

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin43% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 17 career runs, Charlie Brow'n finished third last time and holds a rating of 59. My model gives it 7% against the market's 14%, suggesting the market is rather more optimistic about its prospects. The market has it as one of the shorter prices in the race. (model 7% · fair 14%)

4Tassaroloreads the form

25 career runs · 5th last time · rated 58

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin48% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Tassarolo has 25 career runs, finishing fifth last time, and is rated 58. My model gives it 5% against the market's 10%, suggesting the market is considerably more enthusiastic. The market has it as one of the shorter prices. (model 5% · fair 10%)

5Acantoreads the form

3 career runs · 9th last time · rated 53

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin52% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Acanto has only three career runs, finishing ninth last time, and is rated 53. My model gives it 5% against the market's 9%, indicating the market is more positive. The market has priced it as one of the shorter chances. (model 5% · fair 9%)

6Mystic Rosereads the form

14 career runs · 5th last time · rated 48

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin58% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 14 career runs, Mystic Rose finished fifth last time and is rated 48. My model gives it 5% against the market's 6%, placing it slightly under the market's assessment. The market has it at a mid-range price. (model 5% · fair 6%)

7Connecteoreads the form

7 career runs · 6th last time · rated 56

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin69% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Connecteo has seven career runs, finishing sixth last time, and is rated 56. My model gives it 4% against the market's 4%, showing a close alignment between the two assessments. The market has it at a mid-range price. (model 4% · fair 4%)

8Zitkala Sareads the form

6 career runs · 8th last time · rated 56

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin74% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Zitkala Sa has six career runs, finishing eighth last time out, and holds a rating of 56. My model gives it 5% against the market's 3%, which is a slightly more positive outlook. The market has it at a longer price. (model 5% · fair 3%)

9Queen Of Astolatreads the form

8 career runs · 6th last time · rated 55

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin82% of this price

Fair price50/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Queen Of Astolat has made eight career starts, finishing sixth last time out, and is rated 55. My model gives it 6% against the market's 2%, indicating it is a little more optimistic than the market. The market has it at long odds. (model 6% · fair 2%)

10Without Lovereads the form

13 career runs · 8th last time · rated 49

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin82% of this price

Fair price50/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 13 career runs, finishing eighth last time, and is rated 49. My model gives it 6% against the market's 2%, suggesting it sees a slightly better chance than the market price. The market has it at long odds. (model 6% · fair 2%)

11Spyreads the form

28 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 59

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin86% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Spy has 28 career runs, was well beaten last time out, and is rated 59. My model gives it 4% against the market's 2%, suggesting it sees a slightly better chance than the market. The market has it at long odds. (model 4% · fair 2%)

12Duleek Streetreads the form

5 career runs · 6th last time · rated 41

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin91% of this price

Fair price100/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With five career runs, Duleek Street finished sixth last time and is rated 41. My model gives it 5% against the market's 1%, indicating a more optimistic view. The market has it at very long odds. (model 5% · fair 1%)

13Autocratreads the form

43 career runs · 9th last time · rated 43

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin93% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Autocrat has 43 career runs to its name, finishing ninth last time out. Its current rating is 43. My model gives it 8% against the market's 1%, which is a notable difference. The model sees more potential than the long market price suggests. (model 8% · fair 1%)

14Mapareads the form

22 career runs · 6th last time · rated 49

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin93% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Mapa has 22 career runs, finishing sixth last time out, and is rated 49. My model gives it 6% against the market's 1%, which is a significant divergence. The model sees more chance here than the very long odds imply. (model 6% · fair 1%)

15Mullacurry Maidreads the form

6 career runs · 9th last time · rated 51

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin93% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Mullacurry Maid has six career runs, finishing ninth last time, and is rated 51. My model gives it 5% against the market's 1%, suggesting a more favourable view. The market has priced it as a very long shot. (model 5% · fair 1%)

16Rio Docereads the form

5 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 51

Price offered100/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin95% of this price

Fair price200/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Rio Doce has five career runs, and was well beaten last time out, rated 51. My model gives it 5% against the market's 1%, suggesting it finds more potential than the very long market price. The market has it as a rank outsider. (model 5% · fair 1%)

17Haeret In Pectorereads the form

7 career runs · 6th last time · rated 40

Price offered150/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin97% of this price

Fair price200/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With seven career runs, Haeret In Pectore finished sixth last time and is rated 40. My model gives it 6% against the market's 0%, suggesting the market sees very little chance. The model, however, finds some possibility despite the long price. (model 6% · fair 0%)

KilbegganIreland7 races · avg margin 30% · model leans off the favourite in 7 of 7 · view our Kilbeggan racecardopen every race ▾

16:07WTW Willis Maiden HurdleFav How's Ellie 5/4 20% margin in this price44% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kilbeggan racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This maiden hurdle has 14 runners and the bookmaker's margin is quite wide at around 44% over a fair book. The market favourite is How's Ellie at 5/4, but my model suggests Astelia is the most likely winner instead. The model's estimates for all runners range from 8% down to 4%, indicating a somewhat open race beyond the market's top two.

5 of 14 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

Back every runner and the prices total 144%, about 44% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1How's Elliereads the form

4 career runs · 2nd last time

Price offered5/4 = 44% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price9/4 margin stripped

The AI's read How's Ellie has had 4 career runs, with a second-place finish last time out. The market has made it the 5/4 favourite, implying strong expectations for its performance. My model gives it 7% against the market's 31%, which is a notable difference in assessment. (model 7% · fair 31%)

2Dawn Comingreads the form

12 career runs · 4th last time · rated 116

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Dawn Coming has 12 career runs, finishing fourth last time and boasting the highest rating in the field at 116. This experience and rating should stand it in good stead. My model gives it 6% against the market's 17%, so the market is pricing it more strongly than my assessment. (model 6% · fair 17%)

3Asteliareads the form

11 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 102

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin27% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 11 career runs to its name, with a second place finish last time out and a rating of 102. The form suggests it is capable in this company. My model gives it 8% against the market's 14%, so the market appears to be a little keener on its prospects than my numbers suggest. (model 8% · fair 14%)

4Ivattreads the form

9 career runs · 3rd last time

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Ivatt has 9 career runs, with a third-place finish last time out. The 5/1 market price suggests a reasonable expectation for its performance. My model gives it 4% against the market's 12%, which is a noticeably lower assessment from my numbers than the market price. (model 4% · fair 12%)

5Texas Redreads the form

8 career runs · 7th last time · rated 104

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin31% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 8 career runs, Texas Red finished seventh last time out and holds a rating of 104. This puts it among the higher-rated horses in the field. My model gives it 7% compared to the market's 10%, indicating the market is slightly more optimistic about its chances. (model 7% · fair 10%)

6Minella Cyclonelightly raced

1 career run · 7th last time

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin48% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Minella Cyclone has just one career run, finishing seventh. There is very little form available to assess its full potential. My model gives it 6% against the market's 4%, suggesting a slightly more favourable view from my numbers than the market price. (model 6% · fair 4%)

7Rule Seventeenfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin48% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, Rule Seventeen has no form to analyse. The 16/1 market price suggests some underlying confidence or stable support. My model gives it 6% against the market's 4%, which is a small difference given the lack of prior runs. (model 6% · fair 4%)

8Dusky Nightfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin66% of this price

Fair price50/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, so there is no prior form to consider for its performance. The 33/1 market price reflects the unknown quantity it represents. My model gives it 6% against the market's 2%, indicating a slightly higher statistical chance than the market implies. (model 6% · fair 2%)

9Scotty Joereads the form

3 career runs · 8th last time

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin66% of this price

Fair price50/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Scotty Joe has 3 career runs, finishing eighth last time out. The 33/1 market price suggests it is not expected to be a major contender. My model gives it 5% against the market's 2%, indicating a slightly more optimistic view from my numbers. (model 5% · fair 2%)

10Willows Wordlightly raced

2 career runs · 7th last time

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin75% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 2 career runs, Willows Word finished seventh last time out. The 50/1 market price suggests it is a significant outsider. My model gives it 5% against the market's 1%, which is a slightly higher assessment than the market's implied probability. (model 5% · fair 1%)

11Hardlee Troublelightly raced

2 career runs · 4th last time

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin80% of this price

Fair price100/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has two career runs, finishing fourth last time out. The 66/1 market price suggests limited expectations. My model gives it 7% against the market's 1%, which is a much higher assessment from my numbers than the implied market view. (model 7% · fair 1%)

12Grabatreads the form

3 career runs · 8th last time

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin80% of this price

Fair price100/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 3 career runs, Grabat finished eighth last time out. The 66/1 market price reflects a low expectation for this horse. My model gives it 6% against the market's 1%, suggesting my numbers see slightly more potential than the market does. (model 6% · fair 1%)

13Glengarriffreads the form

5 career runs · well beaten last time

Price offered200/1 = 0% chance

Bookie's margin93% of this price

Fair price200/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Glengarriff has 5 career runs, but was well beaten last time out. The 200/1 market price indicates very little expectation of a strong showing. My model gives it 6% against the market's 0%, which is a small difference given the long odds. (model 6% · fair 0%)

14Isthatrightkatiereads the form

4 career runs · 7th last time

Price offered200/1 = 0% chance

Bookie's margin93% of this price

Fair price200/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had 4 career runs, with a seventh place finish last time out. The 200/1 market price suggests it is considered an outsider. My model gives it 6% against the market's 0%, so my numbers see a very marginal chance that the market does not reflect. (model 6% · fair 0%)

16:42Sean Daly Memorial Handicap HurdleFav Splashing Out 7/2 18% margin in this price30% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kilbeggan racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Kilbeggan handicap hurdle features ten runners, with the bookmaker's margin around 30% over a fair book. The market favourite is Splashing Out at 7/2, but my model suggests Rosenborg is the most likely winner. The model's estimates for the field range from 13% down to 8%, indicating a fairly open contest.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Splashing Outreads the form

21 career runs · 2nd last time · won 4 of 14 at the trip · rated 120

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Twenty-one career runs, finishing second last time. It has won four of fourteen attempts at this trip and is rated 120, making it the highest-rated in the field. My model gives it 9% against the market's 18%, a significant difference for the market favourite. (model 9% · fair 18%)

2Hopes Are Highreads the form

10 career runs · 6th last time · won 2 of 3 at the trip · rated 124

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Ten career runs, finishing sixth last time. It has won two of three attempts at this trip and is rated 124, the highest in the field. My model gives it 8% against the market's 15%, a notable difference for a well-supported horse. (model 8% · fair 15%)

3Cocofredreads the form

4 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 117

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Four career runs, with a win last time out, and one win from four attempts at this trip. Rated 117, it brings recent winning form. My model gives it 10% against the market's 13%, making my read a little cooler than the price. (model 10% · fair 13%)

4Speisialtareads the form

4 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 118

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Four career runs, finishing second last time. Rated 118, it is one of the higher-rated horses in the field. My model gives it 11% against the market's 12%, indicating a close alignment with the crowd's assessment. (model 11% · fair 12%)

5Rosenborgreads the form

4 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 1 at the trip · rated 110

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Four career runs, with a win last time out, and one win from one attempt at this trip. Rated 110, it looks to be finding its stride. My model gives it 13% against the market's 11%, making it my most likely winner, a shade keener than the price. (model 13% · fair 11%)

6Hopeful Heroreads the form

12 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 110

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Twelve career runs, finishing third last time out. Rated 110, it brings consistent recent form. My model gives it 9% against the market's 11%, indicating a slightly more conservative view than the price suggests. (model 9% · fair 11%)

7Eye Of A Tigerreads the form

14 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · won 1 of 10 at the trip

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Fourteen career runs, but well beaten last time. It has won one of three attempts at this course and one of ten at this trip, rated 105. My model gives it 9% against the market's 10%, a broadly similar assessment. (model 9% · fair 10%)

8Free Flowreads the form

21 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 9 at the trip · rated 98

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin40% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Twenty-one career runs, but well beaten last time. It has won one of nine attempts at this trip, and is rated 98. My model's estimate of 10% sits well above the market's 4%, suggesting the market is overlooking something my model sees. (model 10% · fair 4%)

9My Trump Cardreads the form

15 career runs · 8th last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 113

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin40% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Fifteen career runs, finishing eighth last time. It has won one of three attempts at this trip and is rated 113. My model's estimate of 8% is double the market's 4%, suggesting a greater perceived chance than the price implies. (model 8% · fair 4%)

10Migdamreads the form

25 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 114

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin46% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Twenty-five career runs, but well beaten last time. It has won one of three attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 114. My model's estimate of 12% is considerably higher than the market's 3%, suggesting a significant divergence in opinion. (model 12% · fair 3%)

17:15Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden HurdleFav Speed For Fun 11/8 13% margin in this price26% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kilbeggan racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Kilbeggan maiden hurdle features twelve priced runners. The bookmaker's margin of around 26% over a fair book suggests a widely divergent market. Speed For Fun is the market's favourite at 6/4, though my model sees Boo Radley as the most likely winner instead, with model estimates ranging from 13% down to 6%.

7 of 12 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

1Speed For Funlightly raced

2 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 116

Price offered11/8 = 42% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price2/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has had two career runs, finishing second last time, and holds a rating of 116. This rating puts it among the best in this field, and it is the market's favourite at 6/4. My model gives it 12% against the market's 33%, indicating the market is significantly more optimistic about its chances. (model 12% · fair 33%)

2Boo Radleyreads the form

3 career runs · 9th last time

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Three career runs to its name, with a ninth place last time out. There is limited form to assess, but the market makes it the second favourite. My model gives it 13% against the market's 18%, suggesting the price is a little shorter than my calculations would make it. (model 13% · fair 18%)

3The Iron Chefreads the form

3 career runs · 4th last time

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Three career runs, with a fourth place last time out. This form is reasonable but perhaps not enough to justify a short price. My model gives it 6% against the market's 11%, indicating the market is considerably more enthusiastic than my calculations suggest. (model 6% · fair 11%)

4Returning Officerreads the form

4 career runs · 7th last time

Price offered7/1 = 12% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Four career runs, with a seventh place last time out. This form is yet to show significant promise in its races. My model gives it 7% against the market's 9%, suggesting the market is slightly more confident than my calculations. (model 7% · fair 9%)

5Pretty Wildlightly raced

2 career runs · 5th last time

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Two career runs, with a fifth place last time out. This is modest form and does not immediately stand out in this field. My model gives it 7% against the market's 7%, indicating a close alignment between my estimate and the market's price. (model 7% · fair 7%)

6Mr Devlinreads the form

6 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 90

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Six career runs, but was well beaten last time out and holds a rating of 90. This rating puts it towards the lower end of the field. My model gives it 8% against the market's 5%, indicating a slightly more positive view than the current price. (model 8% · fair 5%)

7Pensioners Iconfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin34% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read A debutant, so there is no previous form for a model to analyse. The market price of 20/1 suggests some quiet expectation, likely based on stable intelligence rather than track performance. My model gives it 10% against the market's 4%, showing a notable difference in perspective. (model 10% · fair 4%)

8Maroellightly raced

1 career run · 3rd last time

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin34% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Just one career run, finishing third. This is a promising start for a runner with limited experience. My model gives it 6% against the market's 4%, suggesting my estimate is a shade higher than the market's current assessment. (model 6% · fair 4%)

9The Old Brigadefirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin39% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, meaning there is no form on record for analysis. The market has priced it at 25/1, which is typical for an unproven runner. My model gives it 8% against the market's 3%, suggesting a slightly higher probability than the market implies. (model 8% · fair 3%)

10Charles The Boldlightly raced

1 career run · 9th last time

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin45% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Just one career run so far, finishing ninth. This provides very little information for a form model to use. The market price of 33/1 reflects this lack of established performance. My model gives it 9% against the market's 2%, indicating a slightly more favourable assessment than the crowd. (model 9% · fair 2%)

11Gunner Girlreads the form

3 career runs · 8th last time

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin45% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Three career runs, finishing eighth last time out. This form does not suggest it is likely to challenge the front runners here. My model gives it 7% against the market's 2%, indicating a somewhat more optimistic view than the market's price. (model 7% · fair 2%)

12Thornbury Queenfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered150/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin81% of this price

Fair price200/1 margin stripped

The AI's read A debutant, so there is no form available to assess its capabilities. The market price of 100/1 suggests very little expectation from punters. My model gives it 7% against the market's 1%, which is a small difference but still shows a slightly higher estimate from my calculations. (model 7% · fair 1%)

17:45Sean Hughes Memorial 110 Series Final HandicapFav Mighty Berkshire 11/4 18% margin in this price35% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kilbeggan racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a competitive handicap hurdle with 14 runners and a bookmaker margin of around 35%. The market has made Mighty Berkshire the favourite at 5/2, but my model suggests Cooladdi is marginally more likely. The model's estimates for all runners are tightly grouped, ranging from 9% down to 5%, indicating a very open contest.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Mighty Berkshirereads the form

9 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 112

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Mighty Berkshire has nine career runs, finishing second last time. It is rated 112, making it one of the highest-rated in the field. My model gives it 9% against the market's 20%, indicating the market is pricing it as significantly more likely than my analysis suggests. (model 9% · fair 20%)

2Cooladdireads the form

6 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · rated 110

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Cooladdi has six career runs, winning last time out. It has a perfect record at this course, winning its only start here, and is rated 110. My model gives it 9% against the market's 17%, suggesting the market is considerably keener on its chances than my calculations. (model 9% · fair 17%)

3Midnight Eaglereads the form

22 career runs · won last time · rated 101

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Midnight Eagle has 22 career runs, winning last time out, and is rated 101. This horse brings recent winning form to the race. My model gives it 9% against the market's 11%, so my read is marginally less optimistic than the current price. (model 9% · fair 11%)

4Cornmarketreads the form

17 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 105

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Cornmarket has 17 career runs, finishing third last time out. It has won one of its three starts at this trip and is rated 105. My model gives it 8% against the market's 11%, indicating the market is slightly more confident than my figures. (model 8% · fair 11%)

5Pride Of Placereads the form

19 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 105

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Pride Of Place has 19 career runs, finishing third last time. It is rated 105. My model gives it 6% against the market's 8%, so my analysis is slightly less enthusiastic than the current market price. (model 6% · fair 8%)

6Adalizreads the form

11 career runs · 4th last time · rated 101

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Adaliz has 11 career runs, finishing fourth last time out. It is rated 101. My model gives it 8% against the market's 6%, which means my read is a little more positive than the current price on offer. (model 8% · fair 6%)

7Keep Em Quitereads the form

6 career runs · 4th last time · rated 102

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Keep Em Quite has six career runs, finishing fourth last time. It is rated 102. My model gives it 6% against the market's 6%, indicating a very close alignment between my estimate and the market's pricing. (model 6% · fair 6%)

8Sound Judgementreads the form

6 career runs · 6th last time · won 1 of 1 at the trip · rated 105

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Sound Judgement has six career runs, finishing sixth last time. It has won its only start at this trip and is rated 105. My model gives it 6% against the market's 6%, showing a strong agreement with the market on its chances. (model 6% · fair 6%)

9Ilbdarereads the form

17 career runs · 8th last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 101

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin39% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Ilbdare has 17 career runs, finishing eighth last time. It has won one of its four starts at this trip and is rated 101. My model gives it 8% against the market's 4%, suggesting my estimate is double the market's assessment of its prospects. (model 8% · fair 4%)

10Good Worldreads the form

12 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · rated 102

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin39% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Good World has 12 career runs, finishing fourth last time. It has a perfect record at this course, winning its only start here, and is rated 102. My model gives it 8% against the market's 4%, suggesting my assessment is twice as high as the market's. (model 8% · fair 4%)

11Smallcraftwarningreads the form

28 career runs · 5th last time · rated 95

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin39% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Smallcraftwarning has 28 career runs, finishing fifth last time. It is rated 95, making it one of the lower-rated horses in the field. My model gives it 5% against the market's 4%, indicating my estimate is slightly higher than the market's. (model 5% · fair 4%)

12Itsaworkinmaniamreads the form

4 career runs · 5th last time · rated 102

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin44% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Itsaworkinmaniam has four career runs, finishing fifth last time. It is rated 102. My model gives it 6% against the market's 3%, suggesting my estimate is double the market's current assessment. (model 6% · fair 3%)

13Priory Parkreads the form

10 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 102

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin61% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Priory Park has 10 career runs, finishing well beaten last time out. It has won one of its four starts at this trip and is rated 102. My model gives it 6% against the market's 1%, which is a substantial difference in evaluation. (model 6% · fair 1%)

14Starzovreads the form

7 career runs · 7th last time · rated 103

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin68% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Starzov has seven career runs, finishing seventh last time. It is rated 103. My model gives it 7% against the market's 1%, indicating a very significant difference in assessment between my model and the current market price. (model 7% · fair 1%)

18:15Midland Veterinary Beginners ChaseFav Fou De Toi 5/2 16% margin in this price29% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kilbeggan racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a ten-runner beginners chase at Kilbeggan. The bookmaker's margin of about 29% suggests a rather lopsided book. The market favourite is Fou De Toi at 5/2, but my model instead makes Eclipse Chaser the most likely runner. Model estimates for the field range from 15% down to 6%.

1 of 10 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

1Fou De Toireads the form

5 career runs · 2nd last time

Price offered5/2 = 29% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has five career runs, with its most recent finish being a second place. The market prices it as the 5/2 favourite, reflecting considerable confidence. My model, however, gives it 12% against the market's 22%, a significant divergence in probability. (model 12% · fair 22%)

2Los Blancoreads the form

7 career runs · 2nd last time

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Seven career runs are to this horse's name, with a second place finish last time out. The market prices it at 4/1. My model gives it 12% against the market's 14%, indicating a slightly more reserved view from my calculations compared to the crowd. (model 12% · fair 14%)

3Siege Of Carthagereads the form

4 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With four career runs, this horse finished third on its most recent outing. It has won one of its three starts at this particular trip. My model's estimate of 12% sits just under the market's 13%, suggesting a very close alignment between the two assessments. (model 12% · fair 13%)

4Manoir De Mirandereads the form

11 career runs · 3rd last time

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Eleven career runs are on this horse's record, with a third place finish in its latest race. The market prices it at 5/1. My model's estimate of 10% sits under the market's 13%, suggesting a slightly less optimistic view from my calculations. (model 10% · fair 13%)

5Eclipse Chaserreads the form

9 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 3 at the trip · rated 120

Price offered6/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has nine career runs, finishing seventh last time out. It has won one of three attempts at this trip and is rated 120. My model gives it 15% against the market's 10%, indicating a keener assessment from my calculations. It is also the model's most likely runner. (model 15% · fair 10%)

6Some Songlightly raced

2 career runs · 6th last time

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With only two career runs, this horse finished sixth last time out. There is not a great deal of form to go on for a detailed assessment. My model gives it 9% against the market's 10%, indicating a very similar read of its potential. (model 9% · fair 10%)

7Kool Onereads the form

22 career runs · 4th last time

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had 22 career runs, finishing fourth on its most recent outing. Its price of 8/1 from the market is matched by my model's estimate of 9%, showing a strong agreement between the two. The extended career suggests plenty of experience. (model 9% · fair 9%)

8Fizzle Rockreads the form

3 career runs · 4th last time

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin40% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With three career runs, this horse finished fourth on its latest outing. The market prices it at 20/1. My model gives it 6% against the market's 4%, suggesting my calculations see a slightly greater chance for this runner than the current public price. (model 6% · fair 4%)

9Where Are You Nowreads the form

6 career runs · 7th last time

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin45% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Six career runs are on its record, with a seventh place finish in its most recent race. The market prices it at 25/1. My model gives it 8% against the market's 3%, suggesting my calculations see a slightly higher probability for this runner than the public price. (model 8% · fair 3%)

10The Burrowreads the form

7 career runs · 9th last time · rated 99

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin52% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has seven career runs, finishing ninth last time out, and is rated 99. The market prices it at 33/1. My model gives it 8% against the market's 2%, indicating a more favourable assessment from my calculations than the market's very long price. (model 8% · fair 2%)

18:45Kilsaran Handicap ChaseFav Pinot Gris 9/4 18% margin in this price35% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kilbeggan racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a competitive handicap chase with 13 runners. The bookmaker's margin of around 35% suggests a substantial premium on the prices offered. The model does not align with the market favourite, Pinot Gris, instead finding Where's My Jet to be the most likely contender.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Pinot Grisreads the form

20 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 132

Price offered9/4 = 31% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read With 20 career runs, Pinot Gris finished second last time out. It holds a rating of 132, making it one of the highest-rated in this field. The model's estimate of 10% sits well below the market's 23%, indicating the market holds a much stronger opinion. (model 10% · fair 23%)

2Hashtag Pretenderreads the form

7 career runs · won last time · rated 124

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had 7 career runs, winning last time out. It is rated 124, putting it among the higher-rated runners here. The model gives it 9% against the market's 19%, suggesting the market is considerably more enthusiastic about its chances. (model 9% · fair 19%)

3Charlie Lucianoreads the form

15 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 5 at the course · rated 118

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Charlie Luciano has 15 career runs to its name, finishing second last time. It has won one of its five starts at this course and is rated 118. The model's 9% is just under the market's 11%, so the two views are broadly in agreement. (model 9% · fair 11%)

4Butter Fingersreads the form

19 career runs · 7th last time · rated 109

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin26% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Butter Fingers has had 19 career runs, finishing seventh last time. It is rated 109. The model's 6% is slightly under the market's 8%, suggesting the market is a touch keener on its prospects. (model 6% · fair 8%)

5Watch The Weatherreads the form

25 career runs · 3rd last time · won 2 of 8 at the trip · rated 122

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin28% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Watch The Weather has completed 25 career runs, finishing third last time. It has a good record at this trip, winning two of eight attempts, and is rated 122. The model's 7% aligns exactly with the market's 7%, showing consensus. (model 7% · fair 7%)

6Soldantereads the form

12 career runs · 5th last time · rated 112

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin28% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 12 career runs, Soldante finished fifth in its latest race. It is rated 112. The model's estimate of 6% is just under the market's 7%, indicating a slight cooling from the model's perspective. (model 6% · fair 7%)

7Bynxreads the form

30 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 4 at the trip · rated 111

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin31% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Having run 30 times, Bynx finished fourth in its last race. It has secured one win from four attempts at this trip and is rated 111. The model's 7% is very close to the market's 6%, indicating little difference in their assessments. (model 7% · fair 6%)

8Where's My Jetreads the form

12 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 5 at the trip · rated 122

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin36% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 12 career runs and was well beaten in its last outing. It has won one of its five attempts at this trip and is rated 122. The model gives it 10% against the market's 4%, suggesting a significantly more optimistic view than the crowd. (model 10% · fair 4%)

9Prince Palacereads the form

21 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 7 at the trip · rated 104

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin40% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Prince Palace has made 21 career starts, finishing seventh last time. It has won one of its seven attempts at this trip and is rated 104. The model's 9% is double the market's 4%, suggesting a more positive assessment. (model 9% · fair 4%)

10Cappa Hillreads the form

11 career runs · 4th last time · rated 110

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin40% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Cappa Hill has 11 career runs, finishing fourth last time out. It is rated 110. The model's 7% is nearly double the market's 4%, suggesting a more optimistic assessment from the model. (model 7% · fair 4%)

11Littlebiggiereads the form

19 career runs · 8th last time · rated 110

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin40% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Littlebiggie has made 19 career starts, finishing eighth last time. It is rated 110. The model's 6% is higher than the market's 4%, suggesting the model sees slightly more potential here. (model 6% · fair 4%)

12Grange Walkreads the form

28 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 13 at the trip · rated 103

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin40% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Grange Walk has 28 career runs, finishing seventh last time. It has won one of thirteen attempts at this trip and is rated 103. The model's 6% is higher than the market's 4%, indicating a slightly more favourable view. (model 6% · fair 4%)

13Typical Thomasreads the form

11 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 110

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin51% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 11 career runs, Typical Thomas was well beaten in its most recent race. It carries a rating of 110. The model's estimate of 9% is notably higher than the market's 2%, indicating a significant divergence in opinion. (model 9% · fair 2%)

19:15Clarke's Electrical Contractors, Castletown GeFav My Great Mate 7/4 9% margin in this price14% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kilbeggan racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

A five-runner beginners chase, with the market pricing My Great Mate as the favourite at 7/4. The bookmaker's margin of about 14% suggests a typical level of pricing. My model, however, sees Moonovercloon as the most likely winner, indicating a divergence from the market's assessment.

1 of 5 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

Back every runner and the prices total 114%, about 14% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1My Great Matereads the form

12 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 130

Price offered7/4 = 36% chance

Bookie's margin9% of this price

Fair price2/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 12 career runs, this horse finished third on its last appearance and has the highest rating in the field at 130. My model gives it 18% against the market's 32%, suggesting the market is considerably more confident in its chances than my assessment. It is the market favourite, reflecting strong support. (model 18% · fair 32%)

2Affinity Rockreads the form

7 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 122

Price offered2/1 = 33% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price5/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has seven career runs, finishing third last time out. It carries a rating of 122, which is competitive in this field. My model estimates 19% against the market's 29%, indicating the crowd is notably keener on its prospects than my calculations. Its consistency is a positive. (model 19% · fair 29%)

3Chanceawetmorningreads the form

17 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 1 at the course

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin11% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 17 career runs, finishing fourth on its last outing, and boasts a perfect record of one win from one start at this course. My model gives it 16% against the market's 23%, so the market is a little more positive on its chances than my estimate. Its course record is a definite plus. (model 16% · fair 23%)

4Moonovercloonreads the form

20 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 125

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 20 career runs, but was well beaten on its last outing. It holds a rating of 125, which puts it among the more experienced in this field. My model gives it 24% against the market's 13%, suggesting my read is considerably more optimistic than the current price. However, its last performance was a concern. (model 24% · fair 13%)

5Beggerlightly raced

1 career run · well beaten last time

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin49% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With just one career run to its name, this horse was well beaten on that debut. There is very little form here for a model to properly assess. My model gives it 23% against the market's 3%, which is a very wide difference, reflecting the market's strong dismissal of its chances based on its sole run. (model 23% · fair 3%)

Worcester7 races · avg margin 18% · model leans off the favourite in 3 of 7 · view our Worcester racecardopen every race ▾

16:30CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed HandicaFav Giovanni Change 11/4 9% margin in this price13% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Worcester racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a six-runner handicap chase at Worcester. The bookmaker's margin of around 13% suggests a typical pricing structure for this type of race. The market has Giovanni Change as the favourite, but my model suggests Dexperts Opinion is the most likely winner, indicating a divergence in opinion.

1 of 6 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

1Giovanni Changereads the form

20 career runs · won last time · won 3 of 11 at the trip · rated 114

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin9% of this price

Fair price3/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse is the market favourite, having won last time out from 20 career runs. It has a good record at this trip, winning three of eleven attempts, and is rated 114. My model's estimate of 13% is considerably lower than the market's 24%, suggesting the crowd sees more in its recent win than my figures. (model 13% · fair 24%)

2Dexperts Opinionlightly raced

2 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · won 1 of 1 at the trip

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read With just two career runs, this horse finished second last time out. It has a perfect record at both the course and the trip, winning its only start at each, and is rated 111. My model gives it 25% against the market's 22%, suggesting a slightly more optimistic view. Its limited experience is the only slight unknown. (model 25% · fair 22%)

3Jet Smartreads the form

7 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · rated 112

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Having run seven times in its career, Jet Smart also finished second last time. It has won one of its three starts at this course and is rated 112. My model gives it 18% against the market's 20%, so the market is a little keener on its chances than my numbers. (model 18% · fair 20%)

4Paper Millreads the form

5 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 113

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin12% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has had five career runs, finishing second on its most recent outing. It is rated 113, putting it among the higher-rated horses in this field. My model's estimate is 19% compared to the market's 15%, indicating a slightly stronger assessment from my calculations. (model 19% · fair 15%)

5Mumford's Magicreads the form

10 career runs · 7th last time · rated 111

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With ten career runs, Mumford's Magic finished seventh on its last outing. It is rated 111, placing it in the middle of this field by rating. My model gives it 13% against the market's 14%, so my read is very close to the market's assessment. (model 13% · fair 14%)

6Better Off Alonereads the form

5 career runs · 4th last time · rated 100

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had five career runs, finishing fourth last time out. It is rated 100, which is the lowest rating in this particular field. My model gives it 12% against the market's 5%, suggesting my figures see a little more potential than the broader market price. (model 12% · fair 5%)

17:03Kevin 'Nasty' Turner Memorial Handicap ChaseFav Holy Legend 8/13 7% margin in this price13% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Worcester racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This six-runner handicap chase appears quite lopsided, with the market settling on a strong favourite. The bookmaker's margin of 13% suggests a standard pricing structure for a race of this type. My model aligns with the market's assessment, also identifying the favourite as the most likely contender.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Holy Legendreads the form

12 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 2 at the course · rated 94

Price offered8/13 = 62% chance

Bookie's margin7% of this price

Fair price5/6 margin stripped

The AI's read Holy Legend has 12 career runs, winning last time out, and boasts a good record here with one win from two starts at this course. Rated 94, it is competitive in this field. My model's estimate of 22% is significantly lower than the market's 55%, suggesting the market is very confident in its chances, perhaps seeing more in the last win than my model can quantify. (model 22% · fair 55%)

2Culligranreads the form

18 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 10 at the trip · rated 85

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Culligran has 18 career runs, finishing fourth on its most recent start. It has won one of ten attempts at this trip and is rated 85. My model's 15% estimate is lower than the market's 22%, indicating the market is more confident in its chances than my assessment. (model 15% · fair 22%)

3Belle Le Grandreads the form

16 career runs · 7th last time · won 4 of 12 at the trip · rated 100

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Belle Le Grand has accumulated 16 career runs, finishing seventh last time. It has a strong record at this trip, winning four of 12 attempts, and is the highest-rated horse in the field at 100. My model's 18% estimate is somewhat higher than the market's 11%, suggesting a slightly more optimistic view of its prospects. (model 18% · fair 11%)

4Boom Boomreads the form

10 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 6 at the trip · rated 80

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Boom Boom has completed 10 career runs, finishing third last time out. It has a win from six attempts at this trip and is rated 80. My model's 13% estimate is higher than the market's 7%, suggesting a slightly more favourable view from my analysis. (model 13% · fair 7%)

5Four Decadesreads the form

8 career runs · 8th last time · rated 94

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin42% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With eight career runs, Four Decades finished eighth on its most recent outing. Its rating of 94 places it among the higher-rated runners in this contest. My model's estimate of 19% stands in stark contrast to the market's 3%, indicating a substantial divergence in perception, with the market seeing very little chance for this runner. (model 19% · fair 3%)

6Ballinoulartreads the form

12 career runs · 5th last time · rated 69

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin42% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Ballinoulart has 12 career runs to its name, finishing fifth on its last outing. It is the lowest-rated horse in the field at 69. My model's 12% estimate is considerably higher than the market's 3%, suggesting the market sees very little prospect for this runner. (model 12% · fair 3%)

17:36CopyBet For Premier League Profit Boosts Open Fav Ebarayna 11/4 13% margin in this price21% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Worcester racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a ten-runner National Hunt Flat Race. The bookmaker's margin of 21% suggests a relatively high level of uncertainty in the pricing. The market has a clear favourite in Ebarayna at 5/2, and my model also identifies this horse as the most likely winner, with estimates ranging down to 7% for other contenders.

A lightly-raced field (3 debutants, 7 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

Back every runner and the prices total 121%, about 21% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Ebaraynalightly raced

1 career run · 2nd last time

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had just one career run, finishing second last time out. That performance suggests a degree of promise for this type of race. My model gives it 13% against the market's 22%, indicating the market is considerably more confident in its chances than my assessment. (model 13% · fair 22%)

2Spanish Darlinglightly raced

1 career run · 3rd last time

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has run once in its career, finishing third last time. That was a respectable debut performance. My model gives it 9% against the market's 21%, indicating the market is significantly more optimistic about its chances than my numbers suggest. (model 9% · fair 21%)

3Midnight Lexifirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, this horse enters the race with no form to analyse. The 4/1 price implies a strong expectation of ability from the stable. My model's 11% estimate is lower than the market's 17%, which suggests the market is anticipating more than the numbers can show. (model 11% · fair 17%)

4Brave Lionfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read A debutant, so there is no prior form to consider for this horse. Its 4/1 price reflects confidence from connections, rather than any on-track evidence. My model's estimate of 12% sits under the market's 15%, suggesting the crowd is pricing in a little more potential than I can quantify. (model 12% · fair 15%)

5Mouth Wateringlightly raced

1 career run · 4th last time

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had one career run, finishing fourth last time out. This initial outing was a moderate performance. My model gives it 7% against the market's 8%, which suggests my read is broadly in line with the current market assessment. (model 7% · fair 8%)

6Dark Tide Risinglightly raced

1 career run · 3rd last time

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With just one career run, this horse finished third last time out. This debut performance was a reasonable start to its career. My model gives it 9% against the market's 6%, so my assessment is a little more positive than the current price. (model 9% · fair 6%)

7Company Chargelightly raced

1 career run · 5th last time

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin26% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has made one career start, finishing fifth last time out. That debut run was a modest performance. My model gives it 7% against the market's 6%, indicating my assessment is slightly more favourable than the market's current pricing. (model 7% · fair 6%)

8Secret Jet Awayfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin36% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, so there is no form to assess for this horse. Its 25/1 price suggests the market does not expect it to be a front-runner. My model's 10% estimate is considerably higher than the market's 3%, reflecting a different perspective on its potential. (model 10% · fair 3%)

9Queens Glancelightly raced

2 career runs · 7th last time

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin43% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With two career runs to its name, this horse finished seventh last time out. This form does not immediately suggest it is a leading contender. My model's estimate of 10% is significantly higher than the market's 2%, indicating a substantial divergence in opinion. (model 10% · fair 2%)

10Roi Des Diamantslightly raced

1 career run · well beaten last time

Price offered100/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin71% of this price

Fair price100/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had one career run, where it was well beaten. That single outing offers little encouragement for its prospects here. My model gives it 11% against the market's 1%, a very wide difference, suggesting the market sees little to recommend it. (model 11% · fair 1%)

18:06John Burke Mares' Maiden HurdleFav Elated 15/8 13% margin in this price25% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Worcester racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a 12-runner maiden hurdle where the market has settled on a clear favourite in Elated at 2/1. The bookmaker's margin of around 25% suggests a fairly typical pricing structure for a race of this type. My model also identifies Elated as the most likely contender, with its estimates ranging down to 6% for the less fancied runners.

5 of 12 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

1Elatedreads the form

6 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 98

Price offered15/8 = 35% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price5/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Six career runs with a second place last time out, this horse has a rating of 98, making it the highest rated in the field. My model gives it 11% against the market's 28%, indicating the market is considerably more confident in its chances. The price suggests significant expectation for it to go one better here. (model 11% · fair 28%)

2Steal A Glancereads the form

7 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 90

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Seven career runs, with a second place finish last time out and a rating of 90. My model gives it 9% against the market's 18%, indicating a significant difference in assessment. The market is pricing it as a strong contender, while my model is somewhat less convinced by its previous form. (model 9% · fair 18%)

3Jury Rosesfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, so there is no previous form to consider. The 5/1 price reflects confidence in the horse and its connections rather than any on-track evidence. My model's estimate of 8% sits under the market's 13%, which simply means the crowd is pricing promise I cannot measure. (model 8% · fair 13%)

4Nala The Lionessreads the form

16 career runs · 3rd last time

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This mare has had a busy sixteen career runs, finishing third last time out. My model gives it 7% against the market's 9%, so my assessment is a little less optimistic than the price suggests. The market might be giving slightly more weight to its recent placing than my model does. (model 7% · fair 9%)

5Mistral Millyreads the form

8 career runs · 6th last time · rated 95

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Eight career runs, with a sixth place finish last time out and a rating of 95. My model gives it 6% against the market's 7%, which is a very close alignment in assessment. The market and my model are in broad agreement on its prospects here. (model 6% · fair 7%)

6Drakarisreads the form

5 career runs · 8th last time

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has had five career runs, finishing eighth on its most recent outing. My model estimates its chance at 11% compared to the market's 6%, suggesting my read is notably more optimistic than the price available. It appears my model sees more potential than the crowd in its previous efforts. (model 11% · fair 6%)

7Do Wah Diddyreads the form

4 career runs · 4th last time

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Four career runs, finishing fourth on its most recent start. My model gives it 8% against the market's 6%, suggesting a slightly more positive outlook than the current price. This difference is not large, but my model sees a fractionally greater chance than the market does. (model 8% · fair 6%)

8Sky Blue Ribbonlightly raced

1 career run · 4th last time

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Just one career run, finishing fourth on that occasion. My model gives it 6% against the market's 5%, suggesting a very similar assessment of its chances. The market and my model are closely aligned on the prospects for this horse based on its limited form. (model 6% · fair 5%)

9Georgie's Ladylightly raced

2 career runs · 9th last time

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With just two career runs, this mare finished ninth last time out. My model gives it 10% against the market's 3%, meaning my assessment is considerably more positive than the market's long price. The market seems to be dismissing its chances based on limited and uninspiring form. (model 10% · fair 3%)

10Morissettelightly raced

1 career run · 8th last time

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Just one career run to its name, an eighth place finish. My model estimates its chance at 7% against the market's 3%, indicating my read is more positive than the long price. The market appears to be taking a very cautious view based on its solitary outing. (model 7% · fair 3%)

11Galeforcechopperreads the form

4 career runs · 9th last time

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin62% of this price

Fair price80/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Four career runs to its name, with a ninth place finish last time out. My model estimates its chance at 9% against the market's 1%, which is a substantial difference in perception. The market has priced it as a complete outsider, while my model sees a slightly greater possibility. (model 9% · fair 1%)

12Snow Is In The Skylightly raced

2 career runs · 9th last time

Price offered100/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin72% of this price

Fair price150/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Only two career runs, with a ninth place finish last time out. My model gives it 8% against the market's 1%, a very wide gap in assessment. The market is pricing it as a rank outsider, while my model finds a slightly higher probability than that very long price implies. (model 8% · fair 1%)

18:36Step Into Luxury With Purple Granite Handicap Fav Tilehurst 7/4 9% margin in this price14% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Worcester racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a six-runner handicap hurdle at Worcester. The bookmaker's margin of around 14% suggests a typical level of pricing. The model identifies Emerald Time as the most likely winner, not the market's favourite Tilehurst, indicating a divergence in opinion at the top of the market. The model's estimates range from 23% down to 12%, suggesting a fairly open contest.

1 of 6 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

1Tilehurstreads the form

9 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · won 2 of 9 at the trip

Price offered7/4 = 36% chance

Bookie's margin9% of this price

Fair price9/4 margin stripped

The AI's read Tilehurst has nine career runs, winning on its most recent outing. It has won one of its three starts at this course and two of its nine attempts at this trip. Rated 110, the model gives it 18% against the market's 32%, a significant difference in assessment for the market's favourite. (model 18% · fair 32%)

2Emerald Timereads the form

8 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · won 2 of 7 at the trip

Price offered9/4 = 31% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price11/4 margin stripped

The AI's read Emerald Time has eight career runs, winning last time out. It has a perfect record at this course, winning its sole start here, and has won two of its seven attempts at this trip. Rated 107, the model gives it 23% compared to the market's 27%, so the market is a little keener than my read. (model 23% · fair 27%)

3Zafaanreads the form

22 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 102

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin11% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Zafaan has made 22 career appearances, finishing second last time. Rated 102, it comes into this race with plenty of experience under its belt. The model’s estimate of 20% aligns exactly with the market’s 20%, suggesting a shared view of its prospects. (model 20% · fair 20%)

4Sun Artreads the form

11 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 9 at the trip · rated 106

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Sun Art has 11 career runs, finishing fourth last time. It has won one of its nine attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 106. The model gives it 15% against the market's 13%, indicating my read is slightly more optimistic than the current price suggests. (model 15% · fair 13%)

5Call Me Taralightly raced

2 career runs · 4th last time · rated 105

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin32% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Call Me Tara has only two career runs, finishing fourth last time out. Rated 105, it is relatively unexposed compared to some of its rivals. The model gives it 13% against the market's 4%, suggesting the market is significantly underestimating its chances based on the limited form available. (model 13% · fair 4%)

6Lord Virginiareads the form

6 career runs · 5th last time · rated 96

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin32% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Lord Virginia has six career runs, finishing fifth last time. Rated 96, it is the lowest rated horse in this field. The model gives it 12% against the market's 4%, implying a notable difference in how its prospects are perceived compared to its current price. (model 12% · fair 4%)

19:06CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap HurdleFav Handlethekettle 6/4 10% margin in this price17% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Worcester racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This eight-runner handicap hurdle at Worcester appears to be priced with a noticeable bookmaker margin of around 17%. The market has Handlethekettle as the strong favourite at 6/4. However, the model's estimates suggest a more open contest, with Queens Venture deemed most likely and the model's probabilities ranging from 17% down to 10%.

1 of 8 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

1Handlethekettlereads the form

7 career runs · won last time · won 3 of 3 at the course · won 2 of 4 at the trip

Price offered6/4 = 40% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price15/8 margin stripped

The AI's read Handlethekettle has competed seven times, winning its most recent outing. It boasts an impressive record of three wins from three starts at this course and two wins from four at the trip, with a rating of 122. The model's 16% estimate is significantly lower than the market's 34%, indicating a divergence in assessment despite its strong course and distance record. (model 16% · fair 34%)

2Scottish Anthemreads the form

12 career runs · 9th last time · rated 108

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Scottish Anthem has 12 career runs, with a ninth-place finish in its last race. It is rated 108, which is competitive in this field. The model's 10% estimate is below the market's 14%, indicating the market is pricing it a little more keenly. (model 10% · fair 14%)

3That's Nicereads the form

9 career runs · 4th last time · rated 112

Price offered6/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read That's Nice has nine career runs, finishing fourth last time. It holds a rating of 112, placing it in the mid-range of this field. The model's estimate of 13% sits slightly above the market's 11%, suggesting a marginally more optimistic view of its prospects. (model 13% · fair 11%)

4Jayteereads the form

6 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 112

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Jaytee has six career runs, finishing third last time out. With a rating of 112, it is similarly rated to others in this race. The model's estimate of 11% aligns precisely with the market's 11%, suggesting a consensus view on its chances. (model 11% · fair 11%)

5Queens Venturereads the form

14 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 2 at the trip · rated 114

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Queens Venture has 14 career runs, with a second-place finish last time out. It has won one of its two starts at this trip and is rated 114. The model's estimate of 17% is notably higher than the market's 9%, suggesting a different perspective on its chances. (model 17% · fair 9%)

6Theatre Tomreads the form

5 career runs · 4th last time · rated 102

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Theatre Tom has five career runs, finishing fourth on its most recent start. Its rating of 102 places it towards the lower end of this handicap. The model's 12% estimate is a little above the market's 9%, indicating a slightly more favourable assessment. (model 12% · fair 9%)

7Harrylightly raced

1 career run · 4th last time · rated 110

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin22% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Harry has just one career run to its name, finishing fourth. With so little form to go on, there is little for the model to analyse. The model's 10% estimate is slightly above the market's 7%, reflecting the limited information available. (model 10% · fair 7%)

8Charlusreads the form

11 career runs · 5th last time · rated 113

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Charlus has 11 career runs, with a fifth-place finish in its last race. Rated at 113, it is another with competitive form. The model gives it 12% against the market's 4%, which is a considerable difference in perception. (model 12% · fair 4%)

19:36CopyBet BOG Now For Saturday's Racing HandicapFav Fane Court 4/1 14% margin in this price23% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Worcester racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Worcester handicap hurdle features eleven runners, with the market suggesting a fairly open contest given the favourite is at 4/1. The bookmaker's margin of around 23% is quite generous. My model agrees with the market that Fane Court is the most likely winner, with its estimates for all runners ranging from 12% down to 7%.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Fane Courtreads the form

7 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 80

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has seven career runs, with a second place finish last time out. Its rating of 80 places it mid-field in this contest. My model's estimate of 12% is lower than the market's 16%, indicating the market is slightly more confident in its chances. (model 12% · fair 16%)

2Stilettoreads the form

23 career runs · 3rd last time · won 2 of 5 at the course · won 2 of 7 at the trip

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With twenty-three career runs, this horse finished third last time. It has a good record at this course and trip, winning two of five here and two of seven at the distance, and is rated 100. My model's estimate of 8% is well below the market's 15%, implying the market is giving significant weight to its course and distance form. (model 8% · fair 15%)

3Sonyourastarreads the form

5 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 99

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read In five career runs, this horse secured a third place finish last time. Its rating of 99 makes it one of the highest-rated in the field. My model's estimate of 9% is considerably lower than the market's 14%, suggesting the market sees more promise. (model 9% · fair 14%)

4Final Entryreads the form

12 career runs · 4th last time · rated 98

Price offered6/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With twelve career runs, this horse finished fourth last time. Its rating of 98 makes it one of the higher-rated runners in the field. My model's estimate of 11% aligns precisely with the market's 11%, suggesting a shared view of its prospects. (model 11% · fair 11%)

5Citizen Janereads the form

7 career runs · 2nd last time · rated 75

Price offered6/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Seven career runs include a second place finish last time. Rated 75, this horse is towards the lower end of the ratings in this race. My model's estimate of 10% sits just under the market's 11%, indicating a very similar assessment. (model 10% · fair 11%)

6Bound For Gloryreads the form

6 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 95

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has six career runs, with a third place finish last time. Its rating of 95 makes it one of the higher-rated runners in this field. My model's estimate of 8% is slightly under the market's 9%, indicating a close alignment. (model 8% · fair 9%)

7Stamina Chopereads the form

15 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 83

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has fifteen career runs, with a third place finish in its latest outing. Its rating of 83 puts it in the middle of the pack for this race. My model's estimate of 9% is a little higher than the market's 7%, suggesting a slightly keener view. (model 9% · fair 7%)

8Jullou De Grissayreads the form

11 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 4 at the course · won 1 of 4 at the trip

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has eleven career runs, but was well beaten in its most recent outing. It has won one of four starts at this course and one of four at this trip, with a rating of 93. My model gives it 10% against the market's 5%, so my read is more positive than the price. (model 10% · fair 5%)

9Getuptheyardreads the form

16 career runs · 4th last time · rated 86

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price18/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Sixteen career runs include a fourth place finish last time. Rated 86, this horse is in the middle tier of ratings for this contest. My model gives it 7% against the market's 5%, suggesting a slightly more optimistic assessment. (model 7% · fair 5%)

10Iamcelestialgiftreads the form

6 career runs · 6th last time · rated 84

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin30% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Six career runs include a sixth place finish last time. Rated 84, this horse is another mid-rated contender. My model's estimate of 8% is double the market's 4%, suggesting a more favourable view from my side. (model 8% · fair 4%)

11Wispit Twobreads the form

3 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 94

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin41% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has just three career runs, and was well beaten in its most recent outing. Its rating of 94 places it among the higher-rated runners. My model's estimate of 7% is considerably higher than the market's 2%, indicating a significant divergence in opinion. (model 7% · fair 2%)

Kempton Park7 races · avg margin 21% · model leans off the favourite in 2 of 7 · view our Kempton Park racecardopen every race ▾

17:21Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted NFav Sontsivka 3/1 20% margin in this price38% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kempton Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a large field of 14 runners, predominantly made up of debutants or those with limited experience. The bookmaker's margin of 38% suggests a wide degree of uncertainty in the market's pricing. Sontsivka is the favourite at 3/1, and my model also identifies it as the most likely winner, though with a lower probability.

A lightly-raced field (6 debutants, 8 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

Back every runner and the prices total 138%, about 38% over a fair 100% book. Each runner below shows the bookmaker's slice of its own price, worked out for this race: short prices carry the least, long ones the most.

1Sontsivkalightly raced

1 career run · 2nd last time

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has had just one career start, finishing second. That performance clearly impressed the market, which prices it as the favourite here. My model's estimate of 11% sits below the market's 18%, indicating the market is more confident in its chances than my calculations suggest. (model 11% · fair 18%)

2Xochipillilightly raced

1 career run · 4th last time

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price7/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Xochipilli has had one career run, finishing fourth. This is a reasonable debut performance and the market prices it at 5/1. My model's estimate of 6% is lower than the market's 12%, suggesting the market is pricing in more potential than my model can identify. (model 6% · fair 12%)

3Hidden Beyondlightly raced

1 career run · 3rd last time

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Hidden Beyond has had one career run, finishing third. This is a solid start to its career and the market prices it at 5/1. My model's estimate of 6% is lower than the market's 11%, indicating the market is more optimistic about its chances than my calculations. (model 6% · fair 11%)

4Yuzurufirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, Yuzuru has no form on which to base an assessment. Its market price of 6/1 implies a degree of confidence from connections or the betting public. My model's estimate of 7% is lower than the market's 10%, indicating the crowd is perhaps more enthusiastic about its prospects. (model 7% · fair 10%)

5Greenlanderlightly raced

1 career run · 3rd last time

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin24% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Greenlander has had one career run, finishing third. This is a respectable start to its racing career and the market reflects this with a 6/1 price. My model's estimate of 7% is lower than the market's 10%, suggesting the market is a little more positive about its chances. (model 7% · fair 10%)

6Jenny Raefirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered6/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, so there is no form to assess. Its price of 6/1 reflects confidence in its potential, likely based on stable reports or pedigree. My model's estimate of 7% is lower than the market's 10%, indicating the market is pricing in more promise than my model can quantify. (model 7% · fair 10%)

7Give Handlightly raced

1 career run · 3rd last time

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin27% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Give Hand made its debut with a third-place finish. This is a reasonable start to a career and the market has priced it at 8/1. My model's estimate of 8% aligns exactly with the market's 8%, suggesting a consensus view on its prospects. (model 8% · fair 8%)

8Sueboysfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Sueboys is making its debut in this race, so there is no previous form to consider. The market prices it at 16/1, suggesting some expectation, but not as much as some others. My model's estimate of 7% is higher than the market's 4%, suggesting a slightly more optimistic outlook from my calculations. (model 7% · fair 4%)

9Light Fingeredfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Light Fingered is a debutant, so there is no form to analyse. The market has priced it at 16/1, suggesting it is not considered among the leading contenders. My model's estimate of 7% is higher than the market's 4%, suggesting my calculations see a slightly better chance than the price implies. (model 7% · fair 4%)

10Notimetotakeofffirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner is making its debut, so there is no form to assess its capabilities. The market has priced it at 16/1, indicating it is not expected to be a front-runner. My model's estimate of 7% is higher than the market's 4%, suggesting my numbers are slightly more favourable. (model 7% · fair 4%)

11Scienzalightly raced

1 career run · 7th last time

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin47% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With one career run, Scienza finished seventh last time out. This bare form does not immediately stand out, reflected in its longer market price of 25/1. My model's estimate of 8% is considerably higher than the market's 3%, implying my calculations see more potential than the crowd. (model 8% · fair 3%)

12Admiral Leachlightly raced

1 career run · well beaten last time

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin53% of this price

Fair price50/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Admiral Leach had one career run and was well beaten on that occasion. This poor debut performance leads to a market price of 33/1. My model's estimate of 7% is notably higher than the market's 2%, suggesting my numbers find a little more hope than the price implies. (model 7% · fair 2%)

13Ground Forcelightly raced

2 career runs · 9th last time

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin64% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Ground Force has had two career runs, finishing ninth last time out. This form does not inspire great confidence, leading to a market price of 50/1. My model's estimate of 7% is significantly higher than the market's 1%, suggesting my calculations find more potential than the market does. (model 7% · fair 1%)

14Little Copperfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered66/1 = 1% chance

Bookie's margin70% of this price

Fair price100/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Little Copper is a debutant, so there is no prior form to consider. The market has priced it at 66/1, making it one of the outsiders in the field. My model's estimate of 6% is considerably higher than the market's 1%, suggesting my numbers find more of a chance than the market implies. (model 6% · fair 1%)

17:54Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice StakesFav Huwa Baree 5/2 14% margin in this price25% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kempton Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Kempton Park novice stakes has twelve runners, and the bookmaker's margin of around 25% suggests a typical pricing structure for such a field. Huwa Baree is the market favourite at 5/2, and my model also identifies it as the most likely winner. The model's estimates for all runners range from 13% down to 7%, indicating a relatively open race beyond the favourite.

A lightly-raced field (4 debutants, 8 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

1Huwa Bareelightly raced

1 career run · won last time

Price offered5/2 = 29% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has had just one career outing, which it won. The market's price of 5/2 reflects confidence in its ability to follow up that victory. My model's estimate is 13%, which sits below the market's 23%, suggesting the market is rather more optimistic about its chances. (model 13% · fair 23%)

2Peaberrylightly raced

2 career runs · 2nd last time

Price offered3/1 = 25% chance

Bookie's margin14% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Peaberry has run twice, with its most recent outing resulting in a second-place finish. This suggests some promise from its limited career. My model gives it 9% against the market's 20%, so the market is pricing it rather more keenly. (model 9% · fair 20%)

3Celtic Stormlightly raced

1 career run · 5th last time

Price offered6/1 = 14% chance

Bookie's margin18% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Celtic Storm has had one career run, finishing fifth. This single outing offers limited insight into its overall ability. My model's estimate of 7% is lower than the market's 11%, suggesting the market is rather more optimistic about its prospects. (model 7% · fair 11%)

4Lunar Blossomlightly raced

2 career runs · 4th last time

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Lunar Blossom has run twice, achieving a fourth-place finish on its last outing. This suggests some progress from its initial run. My model's estimate of 8% is very close to the market's 9%, indicating a largely consistent view. (model 8% · fair 9%)

5Shorienfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Shorien is making its debut, so there is no form available to assess. The market price of 8/1 reflects the expectation surrounding a newcomer from its connections. My model's estimate of 7% is slightly below the market's 9%, a minor divergence of opinion. (model 7% · fair 9%)

6Rogue Crusaderfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, so there is no prior form to consider. The market price of 8/1 reflects the potential seen in this newcomer. My model's estimate of 7% is slightly below the market's 9%, indicating the market is pricing in a little more promise. (model 7% · fair 9%)

7Rock Showfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read As a debutant, Rock Show has no prior form to analyse. The market price of 12/1 reflects the typical uncertainty for a first-time runner. My model's estimate of 7% is slightly above the market's 6%, which is a small difference given the lack of data. (model 7% · fair 6%)

8Kirillightly raced

1 career run · 8th last time

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin32% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Kiril has made one career start, finishing eighth. This initial performance provides limited information for a form model. My model's estimate of 8% is twice the market's 4%, suggesting a slightly more favourable view. (model 8% · fair 4%)

9Tojoannielightly raced

1 career run · 9th last time

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Tojoannie has had one career run, finishing ninth. This bare form does not offer much encouragement. My model's estimate of 9% is considerably higher than the market's 3%, a notable difference in assessment. (model 9% · fair 3%)

10Tarn Howsfirst run

First run, so no form for the model to read.

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin43% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This is a debutant, so there is no prior form to assess its capabilities. The market price of 33/1 reflects the uncertainty surrounding its first appearance. My model's estimate of 8% sits above the market's 2%, which is a natural consequence of having no form data. (model 8% · fair 2%)

11Arlecchino's Moonlightly raced

2 career runs · 9th last time

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin43% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Arlecchino's Moon has run twice, finishing ninth on its most recent start. Its limited form does not suggest immediate success. My model's estimate of 8% is significantly above the market's 2%, indicating a different assessment of its potential. (model 8% · fair 2%)

12Phantom Knightlightly raced

1 career run · 8th last time

Price offered50/1 = 2% chance

Bookie's margin54% of this price

Fair price66/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Phantom Knight has run once, finishing eighth on its debut. There is little form to go on from that single run. My model's estimate of 10% is significantly higher than the market's 2%, indicating a wide divergence of opinion. (model 10% · fair 2%)

18:24Irish EBF Fillies' Novice StakesFav Gilding The Lily 10/11 6% margin in this price10% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kempton Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a small field of four runners, with the market pricing a clear favourite in Gilding The Lily. The bookmaker's margin of around 10% suggests a fairly standard pricing structure for a race of this type. My model also identifies Gilding The Lily as the most likely winner, aligning with the market's assessment.

A lightly-raced field (0 debutants, 3 with a run or two), so the model can read little here; the market is leaning on breeding and stable expectation.

1Gilding The Lilylightly raced

2 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 2 at the trip

Price offered10/11 = 52% chance

Bookie's margin6% of this price

Fair price11/10 margin stripped

The AI's read This runner has had two career runs, winning last time out. It has won one of its two starts at this trip, which is a positive. My model's estimate of 38% sits below the market's 48%, indicating the crowd is a little keener on its chances. (model 38% · fair 48%)

2Star Miragereads the form

3 career runs · 7th last time · rated 79

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin9% of this price

Fair price3/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Star Mirage has three career runs to its name, finishing seventh last time. It holds a rating of 79, which provides some context for its ability. My model's estimate of 24% aligns exactly with the market's 24%, suggesting a shared view of its prospects. (model 24% · fair 24%)

3River Nilelightly raced

2 career runs · 3rd last time

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With two career runs, River Nile finished third on its most recent outing. This shows some promise, having placed last time. My model's estimate of 19% is slightly below the market's 21%, so the market is marginally more optimistic. (model 19% · fair 21%)

4Moontunelightly raced

1 career run · 4th last time

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Moontune has only one career run, finishing fourth on that occasion. This provides limited form data for detailed analysis. My model's estimate of 19% is considerably higher than the market's 7%, suggesting a significant divergence in opinion for this runner. (model 19% · fair 7%)

18:54Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards HandicapFav Go Rimbaud 11/4 10% margin in this price15% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kempton Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Kempton Park handicap features seven runners, with the bookmaker's margin around 15% over a fair book. The favourite, Go Rimbaud, is priced at 5/2, and the model also identifies it as the most likely winner. Model estimates range from 19% down to 11%, suggesting a relatively open contest among the top contenders.

1 of 7 are unraced or barely raced; the model reads the rest from the form.

1Go Rimbaudreads the form

8 career runs · 2nd last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · won 2 of 6 at the trip

Price offered11/4 = 27% chance

Bookie's margin10% of this price

Fair price7/2 margin stripped

The AI's read With eight career runs, this horse finished second last time out. It has a good record at this course, winning one of three starts, and has won two of six at this trip. Rated 87, the model gives it 19% against the market's 23%, indicating the market is slightly more confident. (model 19% · fair 23%)

2Fallacious Promisereads the form

11 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · won 3 of 7 at the trip

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin11% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Having made eleven career starts, this runner also won last time out. It has won one of three runs at this course and three of seven at this trip, and is rated 77. The model estimates 15% against the market's 19%, suggesting the market is a little keener. (model 15% · fair 19%)

3Wuoodlightly raced

2 career runs · won last time · rated 77

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin12% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has only two career runs to its name, winning on its most recent outing. With limited form to go on, it is rated 77. The model gives it 15% against the market's 16%, so the market's read is only marginally more optimistic. (model 15% · fair 16%)

4Starlight Timereads the form

7 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · won 2 of 3 at the trip

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has seven career runs and secured a win last time out. It boasts a perfect record at Kempton, winning its sole start here, and has won two of three at this trip. Rated 84, the model's estimate of 18% is higher than the market's 15%. (model 18% · fair 15%)

5Elan D'orreads the form

14 career runs · 5th last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · won 1 of 5 at the trip

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has accumulated fourteen career runs, finishing fifth last time. It has won one of three starts at this course and one of five at this trip, rated 82. The model's estimate of 11% aligns precisely with the market's 11%. (model 11% · fair 11%)

6Suggyreads the form

10 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 2 at the course · won 3 of 8 at the trip

Price offered7/1 = 12% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read In ten career runs, Suggy finished fourth last time out. It has won one of two starts at this course and three of eight at this trip, and carries a rating of 79. The model's estimate of 12% is above the market's 10%, indicating a slightly more positive view. (model 12% · fair 10%)

7Radiancereads the form

4 career runs · 9th last time · rated 84

Price offered14/1 = 7% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With four career runs, this horse finished ninth on its last start. It is rated 84, but its form is yet to fully establish itself. The model gives it 11% against the market's 6%, suggesting the model sees more potential than the current price reflects. (model 11% · fair 6%)

19:24Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts HandicapFav Philanthropist 7/2 16% margin in this price29% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kempton Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This is a competitive handicap with 14 runners and a bookmaker margin of about 29% over a fair book. The market has made Philanthropist the favourite at 7/2. However, my model suggests Yankee Dude is the most likely winner, indicating a divergence from the market's assessment.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Philanthropistreads the form

17 career runs · 2nd last time · won 3 of 15 at the trip · rated 84

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With seventeen career runs, this horse finished second last time out. It has won three of its fifteen attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 84. The market prices it at 7/2, implying a 17% chance, while my model gives it a 10% chance, a notable difference. (model 10% · fair 17%)

2Giletreads the form

16 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 81

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin17% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Gilet has sixteen career runs, finishing third last time. It holds a rating of 81. My model's estimate of 5% is significantly lower than the market's 16%, indicating a substantial difference in opinion regarding its prospects. (model 5% · fair 16%)

3Kiniroreads the form

17 career runs · 3rd last time · rated 77

Price offered6/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Kiniro has seventeen career runs, finishing third last time out. It carries a rating of 77. My model's estimate of 6% is notably lower than the market's 10%, suggesting the market is pricing its recent good run quite strongly. (model 6% · fair 10%)

4Shiplakereads the form

14 career runs · 4th last time · won 2 of 8 at the trip · rated 87

Price offered7/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin20% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With fourteen career runs, Shiplake finished fourth on its last outing. It has won two of its eight attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 87. My model's estimate of 7% is lower than the market's 10%, suggesting the market is pricing it a little more keenly. (model 7% · fair 10%)

5Dr Strangelovereads the form

11 career runs · 5th last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · rated 85

Price offered8/1 = 11% chance

Bookie's margin21% of this price

Fair price10/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Dr Strangelove has eleven career runs, finishing fifth last time. It has won one of its three starts at this course and is rated 85. My model's estimate of 7% is slightly below the market's 9%, indicating the market might be a touch more confident. (model 7% · fair 9%)

6Winston's Warriorreads the form

14 career runs · 6th last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · won 1 of 7 at the trip

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin23% of this price

Fair price14/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With fourteen career runs, Winston's Warrior finished sixth last time. It has won one of its three starts at this course and one of its seven attempts at this trip, with a rating of 79. My model's estimate of 6% is close to the market's 7%, showing little difference. (model 6% · fair 7%)

7Metaversereads the form

20 career runs · 7th last time · won 2 of 9 at the course · won 3 of 16 at the trip

Price offered12/1 = 8% chance

Bookie's margin25% of this price

Fair price16/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Metaverse has twenty career runs, finishing seventh last time. It has won two of its nine starts at this course and three of its sixteen attempts at this trip, with a rating of 81. My model's estimate of 5% is close to the market's 6%, indicating a similar view. (model 5% · fair 6%)

8Yankee Dudereads the form

6 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 1 at the course · won 2 of 6 at the trip

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has six career runs, though was well beaten last time out. It has a perfect record of one win from one start at this course and has won two of its six runs at this trip, with a rating of 87. My model's estimate of 12% is considerably higher than the market's 5%, suggesting a different view of its chances. (model 12% · fair 5%)

9Port Roadreads the form

25 career runs · 6th last time · won 2 of 17 at the course · won 1 of 11 at the trip

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has twenty-five career runs, finishing sixth last time. It has won two of its seventeen starts at this course and one of its eleven attempts at this trip, with a rating of 76. My model's estimate of 6% is in line with the market's 5%, showing little divergence. (model 6% · fair 5%)

10Flag Of St Georgereads the form

18 career runs · 6th last time · won 2 of 14 at the trip · rated 78

Price offered16/1 = 6% chance

Bookie's margin29% of this price

Fair price20/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Flag Of St George has eighteen career runs, finishing sixth last time. It has won two of its fourteen attempts at this trip and is rated 78. My model's estimate of 6% is consistent with the market's 5%, suggesting a similar assessment of its chances. (model 6% · fair 5%)

11Physiquereads the form

26 career runs · 7th last time · won 2 of 18 at the trip · rated 85

Price offered20/1 = 5% chance

Bookie's margin32% of this price

Fair price25/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Physique brings twenty-six career runs to this race, finishing seventh last time out. It has won two of its eighteen attempts at this trip and is rated 85. My model's estimate of 7% is higher than the market's 4%, indicating a slightly more optimistic view of its prospects. (model 7% · fair 4%)

12Rajekoreads the form

8 career runs · well beaten last time · rated 87

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Rajeko has eight career runs to its name, but was well beaten on its last outing. It carries a rating of 87, which puts it among the higher-rated runners here. My model's estimate of 9% is significantly above the market's 3%, indicating the model sees more potential than the price suggests. (model 9% · fair 3%)

13Mythical Composerreads the form

18 career runs · well beaten last time · won 1 of 2 at the course · won 1 of 6 at the trip

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin37% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has eighteen career runs, but was well beaten last time. It has won one of its two starts at this course and one of its six attempts at this trip, with a rating of 77. My model's estimate of 8% is higher than the market's 3%, suggesting the price may underestimate its capabilities. (model 8% · fair 3%)

14Lexington Jetreads the form

22 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 12 at the trip · rated 82

Price offered33/1 = 3% chance

Bookie's margin43% of this price

Fair price40/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Lexington Jet has twenty-two career runs, finishing seventh last time. It has won one of its twelve attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 82. My model's estimate of 6% is considerably higher than the market's 2%, suggesting the market sees it as an outsider. (model 6% · fair 2%)

19:54Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events HandicapFav Peter The Wolf 7/2 11% margin in this price15% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kempton Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

A seven-runner handicap with a bookmaker margin of around 15% over a fair book. The market has Peter The Wolf as the favourite at 7/2, but the model estimates Moe's Legacy as the most likely winner. The model's probabilities are quite compressed, ranging from 19% down to 12%, suggesting a relatively open contest.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Peter The Wolfreads the form

16 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 11 at the trip · rated 72

Price offered7/2 = 23% chance

Bookie's margin11% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Peter The Wolf has 16 career runs to its name, finishing third last time. It has won one of its eleven attempts at this trip and is rated 72. The model's 16% estimate sits below the market's 20%, indicating the crowd is pricing it more strongly than my assessment. (model 16% · fair 20%)

2Rage Of Thunderreads the form

19 career runs · 5th last time · won 2 of 11 at the trip · rated 75

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin11% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Rage Of Thunder has 19 career runs, finishing fifth last time out. It has won two of its eleven attempts at this trip and is the highest-rated horse in the field at 75. The model gives it 12% against the market's 19%, indicating the market is pricing it more prominently than my assessment. (model 12% · fair 19%)

3Newsreaderreads the form

19 career runs · 4th last time · won 3 of 8 at the course · rated 68

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin12% of this price

Fair price9/2 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has made 19 career starts, finishing fourth on its most recent outing. It has a good record at this course, with three wins from eight attempts, and is rated 68. The model's estimate of 13% is lower than the market's 17%, suggesting the market is a little keener. (model 13% · fair 17%)

4Mission Commandreads the form

27 career runs · won last time · won 1 of 9 at the trip · rated 74

Price offered11/2 = 15% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 27 career runs, Mission Command arrives here after a win last time out. It has won one of its nine starts at this trip and is rated 74. The model's estimate of 16% is slightly above the market's 13%, suggesting a marginally more optimistic view than the pricing. (model 16% · fair 13%)

5Moe's Legacyreads the form

46 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 4 at the course · won 7 of 35 at the trip

Price offered6/1 = 13% chance

Bookie's margin15% of this price

Fair price8/1 margin stripped

The AI's read This horse has 46 career runs, finishing seventh last time out. It has won one of its four starts at this course and seven of its 35 attempts at this trip, holding a rating of 74. The model gives it 19% against the market's 12%, indicating a stronger assessment than the price suggests. (model 19% · fair 12%)

6Irish Nectarreads the form

27 career runs · 4th last time · won 1 of 21 at the trip · rated 68

Price offered7/1 = 12% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read With 27 career runs, Irish Nectar finished fourth last time out. It has won one of its 21 attempts at this trip and holds a rating of 68. The model gives it 12% against the market's 10%, a slightly more positive read than the current price. (model 12% · fair 10%)

7Early Releasereads the form

24 career runs · 5th last time · won 2 of 3 at the course · won 4 of 14 at the trip

Price offered10/1 = 9% chance

Bookie's margin19% of this price

Fair price12/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Early Release has 24 career runs, finishing fifth last time. It has a strong record at this course, winning two of three starts, and has won four of 14 at this trip, rated 70. The model's 12% estimate is above the market's 8%, suggesting a more favourable view of its chances. (model 12% · fair 8%)

20:24Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet HanFav Educator 7/2 11% margin in this price16% across the whole raceread the race ▾

See this race on our Kempton Park racecard (runners, form, weights and our columns together)

This Kempton Park handicap features eight runners, with the market's favourite, Educator, priced at 7/2. The bookmaker's margin of around 16% over a fair book suggests a typical level of pricing. My model also identifies Educator as the most likely winner, with its estimates for all runners ranging from 17% down to 9%.

Every runner has a body of form, so the model can read this race in full.

1Educatorreads the form

31 career runs · won last time · rated 75

Price offered7/2 = 22% chance

Bookie's margin11% of this price

Fair price4/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Educator has run 31 times in its career and won its most recent outing. It is rated 75, which puts it among the highest in this field. My model's estimate of 17% sits just under the market's 19%, suggesting a close alignment between the two assessments. (model 17% · fair 19%)

2Digger Onereads the form

6 career runs · won last time · rated 66

Price offered4/1 = 20% chance

Bookie's margin12% of this price

Fair price5/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Digger One has had six career runs, winning its last start. Its rating of 66 places it towards the lower end of the field on official figures. The model's estimate of 12% is lower than the market's 17%, suggesting the market is more optimistic about its chances. (model 12% · fair 17%)

3Urban Warriorreads the form

8 career runs · won last time · rated 57

Price offered9/2 = 18% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price11/2 margin stripped

The AI's read Urban Warrior has run eight times in its career, winning on its last appearance. Its rating of 57 is the lowest in the field. The model's estimate of 12% is lower than the market's 16%, suggesting the market sees more potential than the model can quantify. (model 12% · fair 16%)

4Division Dayreads the form

16 career runs · won last time · rated 68

Price offered5/1 = 17% chance

Bookie's margin13% of this price

Fair price6/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Division Day has competed 16 times in its career, securing a win in its most recent race. It carries a rating of 68. The model's estimate of 12% is slightly below the market's 14%, indicating a small difference in assessment. (model 12% · fair 14%)

5Into Battlereads the form

19 career runs · 3rd last time · won 1 of 3 at the course · won 1 of 3 at the trip

Price offered7/1 = 12% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Into Battle has raced 19 times, finishing third last time out. It has a good record at this course and trip, winning one of three at Kempton and one of three over this distance. Rated 75, the model's 17% estimate is considerably higher than the market's 10%, indicating a notable divergence in opinion. (model 17% · fair 10%)

6Must Believereads the form

21 career runs · 3rd last time · won 2 of 6 at the course · rated 75

Price offered7/1 = 12% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Must Believe has 21 career runs to its name, finishing third last time out. It has a good course record, winning two of six starts at Kempton. Rated 75, the model's estimate of 11% aligns closely with the market's 10%, showing little difference in their assessments. (model 11% · fair 10%)

7Rogue Empirereads the form

11 career runs · 9th last time · won 1 of 4 at the course · won 3 of 7 at the trip

Price offered7/1 = 12% chance

Bookie's margin16% of this price

Fair price9/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Rogue Empire has completed 11 career runs, finishing ninth last time. It has a single win from four starts at this course and a strong record at the trip, winning three of seven. Rated 73, the model's 10% estimate matches the market's 10%, suggesting a shared view. (model 10% · fair 10%)

8Naasmareads the form

24 career runs · 7th last time · won 1 of 5 at the course · won 1 of 7 at the trip

Price offered25/1 = 4% chance

Bookie's margin32% of this price

Fair price33/1 margin stripped

The AI's read Naasma has 24 career runs, finishing seventh in its most recent race. It has a win from five starts at this course and a win from seven starts at the trip. Rated 67, the model's estimate of 9% is significantly higher than the market's 3%, marking the widest disparity in this race. (model 9% · fair 3%)

50 races across 7 meetings. The model is a calibrated read on a race, not a tipping service. Backed blind its picks lose to the starting price, so use these numbers to understand the shape of a race, never as a signal to stake. 18+, please bet responsibly.

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