Grand National 2026 Trends: 10 Stats That Point to the Winner

Weight Trends: The Biggest Single Factor

Trend 1: 10st 2lb to 11st 0lb is the winning zone

Eighteen of the last twenty Grand National winners carried between 10st 2lb and 11st 0lb. That is a very narrow band from a possible range of 10st 0lb to 11st 10lb. Horses outside this band win less than 10% of the time.

The reason is simple physics. Over 4 miles 2 furlongs and 30 fences, every extra pound costs roughly half a length per mile. A horse carrying 11st 6lb is giving away over two lengths to a horse on 10st 6lb — before jumping errors, stamina, and luck come into play.

Trend 2: Top weights rarely win

Only one horse carrying 11st 6lb or more has won the Grand National in the last 15 years (Many Clouds in 2015, carrying 11st 9lb). Before Many Clouds, you have to go back to Red Rum in 1974 to find the last top-weighted winner.

If you back a horse carrying more than 11st 5lb, you are betting against 50 years of evidence.

Trend 3: The 10st bracket is the sweet spot

Eight of the last fifteen winners carried between 10st 2lb and 10st 8lb. This is the zone where a horse has enough quality to get into the race off a reasonable handicap mark, but not so much weight that the distance catches it out.

Trend 4: Horses raised significantly in the handicap lose

If a horse has been raised more than 8lb since its last run, it almost never wins. The handicapper's revisions tend to catch improving horses at their peak, not beforehand. Horses running off a mark 2-5lb higher than their previous outing have a much better record.

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The Weight Test for 2026: Check the weights confirmed at the final declarations stage on Wednesday 8 April. Cross out any horse carrying above 11st 5lb unless it has exceptional form. Favour horses in the 10st 2lb to 10st 12lb range.

Age Trends: Experience Matters, But Not Too Much

Trend 5: 8, 9, and 10-year-olds dominate

Sixteen of the last twenty Grand National winners were aged 8, 9, or 10. This is the peak performance window for a staying chaser — old enough to have learned to jump properly, young enough to have the physical capacity for 4 miles 2 furlongs.

• 8-year-olds — 5 winners in last 15 years
• 9-year-olds — 6 winners in last 15 years
• 10-year-olds — 5 winners in last 15 years
• 11-year-olds and older — only 4 winners in last 15 years (exception: Tiger Roll at 9 and 10)
• 7-year-olds — no winner since Bobbyjo in 1999

Trend 6: 7-year-olds are a near-automatic pass

A 7-year-old has not won the Grand National for over 25 years. They are simply not experienced enough over the fences. Two or three 7-year-olds are usually entered, but they are there to gain experience for future years, not to win.

Trend 7: 12-year-olds can win, but rarely

The exceptions in recent history are Tiger Roll (who actually won at 8 and 9, though older horses like Auroras Encore won at 11 in 2013). A 12-year-old winner is a once-a-decade event.

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The Age Test for 2026: Focus on horses aged 8, 9, or 10. Treat 7-year-olds and 12+ year-olds as near-automatic eliminations unless they have exceptional course form.

Form Trends: What They Did Last Time Matters

Trend 8: A recent run inside the last 50 days

Every Grand National winner of the last 15 years had at least one run in the 50 days before the race. Horses that have been "saved" for Aintree without a prep race do not win — they arrive undercooked.

For 2026, any horse that has not run since early February should be viewed with suspicion. The exception is if its trainer has a specific history of bringing horses direct from the gallops.

Trend 9: Cheltenham Festival runners do well

Horses who ran at the Cheltenham Festival (run in mid-March) have a strong Grand National record. This seems counter-intuitive — surely the race would take too much out of them? — but in practice the Festival acts as a perfect prep.

The specific races that work best as trials:

• The Ultima Handicap Chase (Tuesday, 3m 1f) — two of the last four Grand National winners ran in this
• The Cross Country Chase (Wednesday, 3m 6f) — Tiger Roll's prep race in his winning years
• The Kim Muir (Thursday, 3m 2f) — amateur jockey handicap, strong National trial

Trend 10: Previous Aintree experience is a huge plus

Horses that have run previously over the Grand National fences — whether in a previous National, the Topham Chase, or the Becher Chase — have a significantly better strike rate than first-timers. The Aintree fences are unique, and horses that have proven they can handle them are at a clear advantage.

Of the last 15 Grand National winners, 11 had previous experience over the National fences. Only 4 were first-timers. First-timers can win (Noble Yeats in 2022 is the most recent example), but the odds are stacked against them.

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The Form Test for 2026: Prioritise horses that (a) have run in the last 50 days, (b) ran at the Cheltenham Festival, and (c) have previous Aintree fences experience. Any horse ticking all three boxes goes straight to the top of the shortlist.

Trainer & Jockey Trends

Irish-trained horses dominate the modern Grand National

Of the last 10 Grand National winners, 7 were trained in Ireland. The Irish training operations — led by Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott — have increasingly targeted the race with their best staying chasers, and the results speak for themselves.

The shift is recent. Ireland had fewer wins in the 2000s. The gap opened after 2015, and the dominance has held ever since.

Willie Mullins: the modern master

Willie Mullins has become the trainer to beat at Aintree. His recent Grand National strike rate is extraordinary, and he typically enters 8-12 horses each year, giving him multiple angles of attack.

Key insight: Mullins' "first string" is often not his most fancied horse in the market. His best jockey (Paul Townend) rides whichever Mullins horse he believes has the best chance — and that is sometimes an each-way play rather than the favourite. Watch for the jockey bookings when declarations are confirmed.

Gordon Elliott: the Aintree specialist

Gordon Elliott's Tiger Roll won the Grand National twice (2018, 2019) and he remains one of the most reliable sources of Aintree form. His horses typically run in the Cheltenham Festival first and come to Aintree with a live chance.

Jockey experience over the fences matters

A jockey riding their first Grand National has won the race, but it is uncommon. The typical winning jockey has ridden in at least 3-5 previous Nationals and knows how to handle the unique challenges: the Canal Turn angle, the pace on the first circuit, and when to make their move on the second circuit.

The Jockey Test for 2026: Prefer experienced Grand National jockeys over first-timers. Paul Townend, Jack Kennedy, Mark Walsh, Derek Fox, and Harry Cobden all have strong Aintree records.

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Putting It All Together

Apply all five tests — weight, age, form (recent run), form (Festival prep), and Aintree experience — to each declared runner. Horses that pass 4 or 5 of the tests are your shortlist. Horses that fail 3 or more are your eliminations.

For our 2026 selections that pass these tests, see our Grand National tips guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

What weight usually wins the Grand National?

10st 2lb to 11st 0lb. Eighteen of the last twenty winners carried weights in this band. Horses above 11st 5lb almost never win.

What age is the typical Grand National winner?

8, 9, or 10 years old. Sixteen of the last twenty winners fell into this age range. 7-year-olds have not won since 1999.

Is the favourite a good bet in the Grand National?

Historically no. The favourite wins about 1 time in every 8 years in the Grand National — worse than in most other top races. Fields of 34 runners and 30 fences create enough randomness that even the best horse often cannot win. Each-way bets on 10/1-25/1 shots have historically delivered better returns.

How important is the going?

Very. Most modern winners prefer Good to Soft or softer conditions. Fast ground (Good to Firm) suits fewer of the field and has produced fewer winners in recent years. For the latest Saturday ground report, see our going and weather article.

Do Irish horses really dominate?

Yes. Seven of the last ten winners were Irish-trained. The Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott yards have invested heavily in targeting the race and their strike rate reflects it.

What is the most useful single trend?

If you can only use one filter, use weight. The 10st 2lb to 11st 0lb band alone eliminates roughly half the field every year and contains the vast majority of winners.