Two tests, one honest question
This page is the scientific ledger: every pick the model makes, in every race, stored and scored for how sharp it really is. For the live daily test, its best picks put up against the bookmaker in real time, see Can it beat the bookies? →
One flat £10 on the model's own top pick in every British race it has priced, settled to industry starting price with the fallers counted as losses. No system, no staking trick, just the model's single best horse, day after day. This is how that balance would have felt in a real wallet.
On 547 race-days the balance finished up on 196 and down on 349. The best single day made +£242; the worst lost £258. Even its longest winning run (8 days) is shorter than its longest losing one (10 days). That is exactly what a market you can't beat looks like.
The running £ balance, every race-day since the record began. Green sections are days it rose, red days it fell. The gold line marks where backtesting ends and live, published-before-the-off predictions begin.
The same record split into calendar months. Green months won, red months lost. A good month happens; a run of them does not.
All-time against the most recent 90 and 30 days, including how the model's probabilities score against the market's on the same races (Brier score, lower is sharper). The market stays ahead.
| Window | Bets | Strike | ROI to SP | Profit / loss | Model Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All time | 7,442 | 25.5% | -11.9% | -£8,888 | 0.1023 |
| Last 90 days | 1,363 | 23.3% | -12.4% | -£1,686 | 0.1015 |
| Last 30 days | 864 | 20.5% | -17.1% | -£1,480 | 0.0986 |
Model Brier 0.1023 versus the market's 0.0931 on the same races: the model is well calibrated, just not as sharp as the price. That gap is the whole story, and the reason we show you this instead of selling you tips.
The same ledger, sliced the way the Tipster League slices its board. Pick a timeframe and the graph and numbers re-cut to it. £10 flat on the model's top pick per race, settled at SP.
Profit
−£1,462
ROI
-17.2%
Strike rate
20%
Bets
848
Staked
£8,480
Returned
£7,018
A running ledger of the model's latest top pick in each race: the selection, the market's price, and how it settled. Win or lose, every one is here, so you can see exactly how the model reads a race.
Supporting Ayr Racecourse, The John Cocking Irish EBF Novice Stakes
A debutant with no form to assess. The market's 35% probability sits well ahead of the model's 22% estimate, suggesting confidence in the stable's credentials.
25% Off Lunch At Western House Hotel Handicap
Twenty-four runs with two wins, including success in two of four at Ayr and three of twenty-two at the trip. The model at 13% sits marginally above the market's
Racing To School Reaches 250,000 Handicap Chase
A sixteen-run career with a recent win and strong course form, three victories in five attempts here. The model estimates 40% while the market prices it at 60%,
Watch Racing TV Free For 31 Days Handicap
Recent winner with a perfect record at this course, though it has won only one of seven attempts at the trip distance. The model's 19 per cent estimate sits not
Sun Racing The Home Of Racing Maiden Hurdle
A debutant with no form at all. The market's 46% probability sits well above the model's 36% estimate, reflecting confidence in the horse and stable.
racingtv.com/freetrial Handicap
Nineteen runs on the record with one win from six at this trip, though it was well beaten last time out. The model's estimate of 13 per cent sits well clear of
Racing Club Handicap Hurdle
Won last time and holds a win from six runs at this track, with matching record at the trip. The model estimates it at 12%, while the market's 18% prices in a b
Try Racing TV For Free Now Handicap
Fresh off a win with 37 runs under its belt and two course victories from 13 attempts, this horse shows solid form at both venue and trip. The model's estimate
Par Inn Handicap Chase
Eighteen runs with a third last time, one win from four at Newton Abbot and two wins from eight at the trip distance. The model estimates 30 per cent chance whi
Racing TV Handicap
Four runs with a recent second, and a perfect record at this course from one attempt suggests the stable sees something promising here. The model's estimate of
William Hill Handicap Chase
Fourteen career runs with a recent second place, rated 115, suggest a horse in decent form. The model's estimate of 27% sits well below the market's 49%, indica
Every Race Live On Racing TV Apprentice Handicap
Twenty-five runs on the card with a recent fourth place finish. The model and market are aligned at 24%, both seeing merit in a horse with a reasonable strike r
This is research, not tips. The model is a calibrated read on a race: it picks winners at a consistent rate and still loses to the starting price, which is the whole honest story. 18+, please bet responsibly.