Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-08-14
Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)
Ascot 15:35 · King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1) · Class 1 · 1m3f211y
Pre-race estimate. Published 25 July 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.
The model rated Goliath its most likely winner at 14%, ahead of Calandagan (14%) and Kalpana (13%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.
| Horse | SP | Model chance | Market | vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goliath C Soumillon / F Graffard | 9.00 | 14.1% | 9.4% | Market 4.7pp longer |
| Calandagan M Barzalona / F Graffard | 2.62 | 14.0% | 32.1% | Market 18.1pp shorter |
| Kalpana Colin Keane / A M Balding | 9.00 | 13.2% | 9.4% | Market 3.9pp longer |
| Minnie Hauk Wayne Lordan / A P O'Brien | 7.00 | 11.9% | 12.0% | In line with market |
| Masquerade Ball C P Lemaire / Takahisa Tezuka | 4.50 | 11.4% | 18.7% | Market 7.3pp shorter |
| Benvenuto Cellini R L Moore / A P O'Brien | 5.50 | 11.3% | 15.3% | Market 4.0pp shorter |
| Action S M Levey / A P O'Brien | 151.00 | 8.9% | 0.6% | Market 8.4pp longer |
| Wurttemberg Oisin Murphy / Hiroshi Miyamoto | 51.00 | 8.3% | 1.7% | Market 6.7pp longer |
| Lambourn W Buick / A P O'Brien | 101.00 | 6.8% | 0.8% | Market 6.0pp longer |
These were the model's estimated win chances going into the race, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so read it as an independent second opinion on the race. See how accurate it is →
King George 2026: the mid-summer championship, now worth £2 million
The race has run. Kalpana (13/2) won the 2026 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday 25 July for Andrew Balding and Colin Keane, beating the 6/5 favourite Calandagan by a length and a half, with Benvenuto Cellini third and Lambourn fourth. See the full result, finishing order and race report.
Everything below this line is the preview we published before the race, kept on the page unchanged in substance so the pre-race read and the outcome sit together. The prices and the "will run" language are as they stood on Friday 24 July.
Saturday 25 July 2026, Ascot, off 15:35 BST. The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes is the highlight of the summer's middle-distance calendar, the race where the season's best three-year-olds take on their elders over a mile and a half, and the one that so often crowns the leading older horse of the year. In 2026 it carried a record £2 million in prize money, making it one of the richest races in Europe and a magnet for the best from Britain, Ireland, France and Japan.
It is one of only a handful of races each year that brings the generations and the borders together at the top level. A compact but high-class field of nine was declared, headed in the market by the French-trained Calandagan, who won this race in 2025 and came back as the one they all had to beat. Lined up against him were a Derby winner and a multiple Oaks winner from Aidan O'Brien's four-strong team, the 2026 Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini, and a leading Japanese challenger in Masquerade Ball.
Run over Ascot's stiff, galloping 1m4f, the King George is a true championship test: a strong gallop, an uphill finish, and no hiding place for a horse that doesn't truly stay or isn't quite good enough. Winners here tend to go on to define the autumn, with the Juddmonte International, the Arc and the Champion Stakes all flowing from it.
A note on timing, written before the race: the runners and riders were confirmed at the 48-hour declaration stage on Thursday 23 July, and the race was off at 15:35 BST on Saturday. Prices below are a Friday guide and moved through Friday and into the afternoon. Nothing here is a tip, and nothing here was tipped.
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The race and the Ascot test
The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes is a Group 1 over 1 mile 4 furlongs (officially 1m3f211y) for three-year-olds and upwards, run on Ascot's round course. First run in 1951 to mark the Festival of Britain, it has been won by a roll-call of the greats, Ribot, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Dancing Brave, Galileo, Montjeu, Sea The Stars and Enable among them, which is why a King George win sits so high on a horse's CV.
The track is the defining factor. Ascot's mile-and-a-half is a stiff, galloping test with a sustained uphill run to the line, so it rewards a genuine, strong-staying middle-distance horse and punishes anything that is short of stamina or merely quick. It is rarely won by a horse getting the trip on sufferance; the King George tends to find the real thing.
The race's signature is the clash of the generations. Three-year-olds receive a weight-for-age allowance from the older horses, and the history of the race swings between brilliant Classic-generation colts and fillies taking advantage of it and battle-hardened older champions proving simply too good. Judge the individual rather than the age bracket, but respect a top Derby or Oaks winner with the weight pull, and respect an established older Group 1 horse with proven form at the trip.
It also sits at a key point in the calendar. Many runners arrive from the Epsom Classics, the Coronation Cup, the Coral-Eclipse (back up to a mile and a half) or top continental races, and the winner usually goes on to headline the autumn. So the King George is worth watching as a form-setter for the rest of the season as much as for the £2 million on the day.
Trends and angles to weigh
A few durable patterns for the King George. These are tendencies rather than rules, and the declared field always matters more than any angle:
- Class and proven 1m4f form win it. This is a championship Group 1 over a stiff mile and a half. Horses with established top-level form at the trip are on far surer ground than milers stretching up or stayers dropping back on the back of one good run.
- The weight-for-age allowance is a genuine lever for the right three-year-old. A high-class Classic-generation colt or filly getting weight from the older horses is dangerous, but only one good enough to use it. In other years the older, more battle-hardened Group 1 horse has simply been better. Judge the horse, not the age.
- You must stay every yard. Ascot's uphill finish exposes non-stayers; a relentless galloper that keeps finding is the profile, not a sharp-finishing type that needs things to fall right.
- Recent top-level form reads across well. Many runners come via the Epsom Classics, the Coronation Cup, the Eclipse or top continental races, and those are the most reliable lines in. Where a horse won or how close it ran in genuine Group 1/2 company is worth more than an impressive win in lesser grade.
We have deliberately not quoted a "winners by age" or "winning favourites" tally, because the renewal-by-renewal record is best read against the actual field. With the nine runners now declared, these angles point two ways: to Calandagan's proven course-and-distance win as the reigning champion, and to the weight-for-age claims of the leading three-year-olds, Benvenuto Cellini and Minnie Hauk. For the model's calibrated probability on each declared runner, see the AI Race Predictor, which publishes on the morning of the race.
The declared field
Written before the race. Kalpana won at 13/2 from Calandagan and Benvenuto Cellini: see the result.
Nine runners go to post for Saturday 25 July 2026, off at 15:35 BST. The field was confirmed at the 48-hour declaration stage on Thursday 23 July. Several of the earlier entries, among them Bay City Roller and Ancient Egypt, were not declared, so this is a compact, high-class nine rather than a big field. Prices below are a guide as of Friday and will move into Saturday; Best Odds Guaranteed cover is available with most major bookmakers.
The Graffard pair at the head of the market
Calandagan (Mickaël Barzalona) heads the market at around 13/8. He won this race in 2025 and is widely regarded as the highest-rated older middle-distance horse in training. Trainer Francis-Henri Graffard also saddles Goliath (9/1, Christophe Soumillon), the 2024 King George winner, so the French yard runs two and chases a third King George in a row. Two from one stable at the head of the card adds a tactical layer to how the race may be run.
The Japanese challenge
Masquerade Ball (7/2, Christophe Lemaire), trained in Japan by Takahisa Tezuka, is one of the shortest prices on the day and his connections have long targeted this race. The question is whether his style of running transfers to Ascot's stiff, uphill mile and a half. Wurttemberg (50/1, Oisin Murphy), trained by Hiroshi Miyamoto, is the second Japanese-trained runner and a much longer price.
O'Brien's four
Aidan O'Brien saddles four of the nine and bids for a fifth King George. Benvenuto Cellini (9/2, Ryan Moore) arrives off a decisive win in the 2026 Irish Derby and receives the three-year-old weight-for-age allowance from the older horses, a genuine lever at this level for the right colt. Minnie Hauk (11/2, Wayne Lordan) was a multiple Oaks winner last season and runner-up in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, so she brings the strongest placed form at the very top level of any runner here; fillies receive no sex allowance from the colts at Group 1, so her single-figure price reflects real regard. Lambourn (100/1, William Buick) won last season's Derby and Irish Derby but is the outsider of the yard's quartet on these terms, and Action (100/1, Sean Levey) completes the four at a long price.
The Balding hope
Kalpana (9/1, Colin Keane), trained by Andrew Balding, was runner-up in this race in 2025 and is the pick of the British-trained runners in the market. Proven form over Ascot's course and distance counts for plenty in a race that so often exposes anything short of stamina.
Prices guide (as of Friday 24 July)
| Runner | Trainer | Guide price |
|---|---|---|
| Calandagan | F-H Graffard | 13/8 F |
| Masquerade Ball | T Tezuka | 7/2 |
| Benvenuto Cellini | A O'Brien | 9/2 |
| Minnie Hauk | A O'Brien | 11/2 |
| Goliath | F-H Graffard | 9/1 |
| Kalpana | A Balding | 9/1 |
| Wurttemberg | H Miyamoto | 50/1 |
| Lambourn | A O'Brien | 100/1 |
| Action | A O'Brien | 100/1 |
Those were a Friday guide from the general market and they moved before the off: Calandagan started 6/5 and Kalpana 13/2. For the model's calibrated probability on each declared runner, see the AI Race Predictor read published on the morning of the race. The freshest top-level form lines into the race are on our Royal Ascot 2026 results page.
Responsible gambling: nothing on this page is a tip. Prices are a guide only and will change before the off. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.
Betting angles and where to watch
Written before the race, and the King George market is now settled. The offer below is a standing concession on UK racing generally, not a price for this race.
Honest pointers rather than tips, now the nine-runner field is confirmed for Saturday:
- The market has a clear head. Calandagan is a warm favourite at around 13/8, with Masquerade Ball, Benvenuto Cellini and Minnie Hauk heading the next line of the betting. In a small, high-class field the prices are tight at the top, so value is hard to find and much of the interest is in the clash itself.
- Back stamina and class, not a flashy turn of foot. Ascot's uphill 1m4f rewards a proven, strong-galloping middle-distance horse; lean on genuine 1m4f Group form over milers stepping up or stayers dropping back.
- Respect the weight-for-age both ways. A top three-year-old with the allowance is dangerous, but only if it is good enough. Don't back an age bracket.
- Each-way value is usually thin. Championship Group 1s often go off with compact, classy fields, so the place terms rarely pay as they do in the big handicaps; judge the win bet on its merits.
Best Odds Guaranteed is the most useful everyday concession for a race where the morning price can move before the off. Betfred applies it to every UK race:
For the wider view, see our best free-bet offers and Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers guides.
Where to watch: King George day is one of the summer's marquee fixtures; terrestrial coverage is typically on ITV Racing, with the full card on Sky Sports Racing. Confirm the day's listings nearer the time.
Responsible gambling: the field is confirmed, but prices will move before the off and nothing here is a tip. Bet only what you can afford to lose, set deposit limits, and never chase. BeGambleAware.org. 18+.
King George 2026 FAQ
Who won the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2026? Kalpana, at 13/2, ridden by Colin Keane and trained by Andrew Balding. She beat the 6/5 favourite Calandagan by a length and a half, with Benvenuto Cellini half a length back in third and Lambourn fourth. The full result and race report has the finishing order, the going and how the race was run.
When was the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2026? Saturday 25 July 2026, at Ascot. The advertised time was 15:35 BST and the race went off at 15:36. It is the feature race of Ascot's card and the highlight of the British midsummer Flat programme.
What is the King George? A Group 1 flat race over 1 mile 4 furlongs for three-year-olds and older horses, first run in 1951. It is the summer's premier middle-distance championship, bringing the best three-year-olds together with their elders, and in 2026 it carried a record £2 million in prize money.
Why was it worth £2 million in 2026? Ascot increased the prize fund to a record £2 million to make it one of the richest races in Europe and attract the strongest possible international field. The 2026 running drew runners from Britain, Ireland, France and Japan.
Which horses ran in the King George 2026? Nine runners were declared. Calandagan headed the market ahead of Masquerade Ball, Benvenuto Cellini and Minnie Hauk, with Goliath, Kalpana, Wurttemberg, Lambourn and Action completing the field. The nine firmed up from 37 early entries at the 48-hour declaration stage on Thursday 23 July.
Why do three-year-olds get a weight allowance? The race is run at weight-for-age, so the younger Classic generation receive weight from the older horses to reflect their relative immaturity in July. In some years that allowance has been decisive; in others the established older horse has been good enough to give it away.
What does the Ascot course demand? A mile and a half on the round course with a stiff uphill finish. It rewards a strong-galloping stayer that keeps finding to the line, not a one-paced or non-staying type.
Where can I watch it? King George day is a marquee summer fixture with terrestrial coverage typically on ITV Racing and the full card on Sky Sports Racing. Check the day's listings nearer the time.
Does the Stablebet AI model rate the race? Yes. Once the field is declared, the AI Race Predictor publishes a calibrated win-probability estimate for each runner. It is an independent second opinion, not a tip, and our track record shows honestly how it performs over time, losing runs included.
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