Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-07-13
Stablebet model (estimated win chances)
York 14:25 · Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap · 2 · 5f
The model rates Fortification its most likely winner at 9%, ahead of Allsortz (9%) and Schrodinger's Cat (9%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.
| Horse | SP | Model chance | Market | vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortification Ben Robinson / B Ellison | 5.00 | 9.2% | 15.3% | Market 6.2pp shorter |
| Allsortz Robbie Colgan / D Marnane | 8.50 | 9.0% | 9.0% | In line with market |
| Schrodinger's Cat Oliver Stammers / Grant Tuer | 9.00 | 8.7% | 8.5% | In line with market |
| Naana's Shadow Oisin Murphy / K Scott | 6.50 | 8.6% | 11.8% | Market 3.2pp shorter |
| Rotokura Belle Cam Hardie / I Furtado | 21.00 | 6.9% | 3.6% | Market 3.2pp longer |
| Front Line Fury Tom Marquand / George Scott | 15.00 | 6.7% | 5.1% | Market 1.6pp longer |
| Our Cody N Callan / R Hughes | 8.50 | 6.4% | 9.0% | Market 2.6pp shorter |
| Mighty Magnus Mark Winn / M Dods | 17.00 | 6.4% | 4.5% | Market 1.9pp longer |
| Boston Dan O J Orr / R A Fahey | 34.00 | 5.8% | 2.3% | Market 3.5pp longer |
| Stargazed C Lee / K R Burke | 9.00 | 5.6% | 8.5% | Market 2.9pp shorter |
| Go Vince Go Sean Kirrane / T D Easterby | 34.00 | 5.6% | 2.3% | Market 3.3pp longer |
| Shes Got A Brother Billy Garritty / M & D Easterby | 11.00 | 5.5% | 7.0% | Market 1.5pp shorter |
| Hanney Girl J P Sullivan / T D Easterby | 21.00 | 5.4% | 3.6% | Market 1.7pp longer |
| Manatee Mehmas D Nolan / D O'Meara | 13.00 | 5.3% | 5.9% | Market 0.6pp shorter |
| Alfa Duplicate S De Sousa / I Furtado | 21.00 | 5.0% | 3.6% | Market 1.4pp longer |
These are the model's estimated win chances, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so treat it as an independent second opinion for understanding the race. See how accurate it is →
The Criterion Stakes comes to York for the first time
Saturday 27 June 2026, York. This weekend brings a small but genuine piece of racing history to the Knavesmire: the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes — a Group 3 over seven furlongs — is run at York for the first time, having moved north from Newmarket, where it had been a fixture of the late-June calendar for decades. York Racecourse confirmed the switch, and it becomes the feature of the course's Summer Music Saturday.
✅ Result (Sat 27 June): Qirat won the first York Criterion at 8/1. Silvestre De Sousa and Ralph Beckett's Qirat beat Never So Brave (6/4) and Saber Strike (6/4) over the seven furlongs. A fitting first winner on the Knavesmire: Qirat had landed the 2025 Sussex Stakes at a record 150/1, and proved that was no fluke here at a far shorter price.
It is not one of the season's heavyweight Group 1s, but it is a competitive, valuable seven-furlong contest (£100,000 in prize money) for three-year-olds and upwards, and its first running at a new home is a genuine talking point. York's wide, galloping straight is a very different test from Newmarket's, so it will be worth seeing how the race rides at its new venue.
It also headlines a busy, family-friendly afternoon — seven races followed by a live concert from Becky Hill — so the meeting is as much a summer day out as a serious card. This is a quick preview of the race and the day rather than a full festival guide.
For the wider York picture, see our York Racecourse complete guide; for the course's marquee meeting, the York Ebor Festival 2026 guide. Nothing here is a tip — the field is confirmed at the 48-hour declaration stage, and prices move.
Where to Bet
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The race: a 7f Group 3 at a new home
The Criterion Stakes is a Group 3 over seven furlongs for three-year-olds and older horses, worth £100,000 in 2026. For most of its history it was run on Newmarket's July Course in late June; its move to York is the headline change this year, and the first running on the Knavesmire is the natural angle to watch.
The shift of venue matters more than it might sound. Newmarket's seven furlongs is a stiff, undulating test with its famous Dip; York's seven furlongs is run on a wide, fair, galloping straight that tends to reward a horse with a smooth high cruising speed and the room to deliver its run. Horses with strong York form, or the kind of relaxed, galloping profile the track suits, are worth a second look — though with the race new to the course there is no York-specific Criterion form to lean on yet.
Seven furlongs sits in the awkward, specialist gap between out-and-out sprinters and milers, so the race often attracts horses who are a shade quick for a mile or who just fail to see out further on quick ground. Expect a competitive, classy renewal rather than a one-horse procession.
A note on the field: the runners, riders and the draw are fixed at the 48-hour declaration stage, so treat any names floated this far out as possible rather than certain. We have deliberately not listed a field or quoted prices here — with the race at a new venue and the declarations not yet final, the honest read is to wait for the confirmed runners and the going. When the field is declared, the AI Race Predictor will publish a calibrated win-probability estimate for each runner — an independent second opinion, not a tip.
Summer Music Saturday: the day around the race
The Criterion is the centrepiece of York's Summer Music Saturday, one of the most popular dates in the Knavesmire's calendar and a very different occasion from the serious, form-book afternoons of the Dante or Ebor festivals. The format pairs a full afternoon of racing with a live concert once the action is over.
Expect seven races across the afternoon, with combined prize money approaching £300,000 — a strong supporting card around the Group 3 feature — followed by a headline performance from Becky Hill on the course's Glastonbury-style stage. It is built as a day out: big crowds, a festival atmosphere, and a younger, more social audience than York's championship meetings draw.
That mix is worth bearing in mind if you are going for the racing rather than the music — it is a busier, livelier day than a standard fixture, so plan arrival and travel accordingly. For the practical side of a York visit — enclosures, getting there, where to stand — our York day-out guide covers it, and the York Racecourse complete guide has the full course detail.
Betting and where to watch
A few honest pointers rather than tips. With the field declared only 48 hours out and the race new to York, the sensible approach is to wait for the confirmed runners, the draw and the going before getting involved:
- There's no York Criterion form yet, so lean on horses with proven course form over seven furlongs at York, or with the smooth, galloping profile the straight suits — rather than reading across blindly from the old Newmarket renewals.
- Seven-furlong Group 3s are often competitive and open — a wide-open heat is more likely than a short-priced certainty, so judge any each-way thinking on the actual field size and place terms.
- The going can ride quick at York in late June — worth checking the official going update on the morning, as fast ground can favour the speedier types.
Best Odds Guaranteed is the most useful everyday concession for a race where the morning price can shift before the off. Betfred applies it to every UK race:
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For the wider view, see our best free-bet offers and Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers guides.
Where to watch: York's Summer Music Saturday is a high-profile fixture; terrestrial coverage is typically on ITV Racing with the full card on Sky Sports Racing — confirm the day's listings nearer the time.
Responsible gambling: the field is not yet final and any prices are pre-declaration snapshots, not tips. Bet only what you can afford to lose, set deposit limits, and never chase. BeGambleAware.org. 18+.
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