Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-07-13
Stablebet model (estimated win chances)
Royal Ascot 14:30 · Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) · 1 · 1m
The model rates Notable Speech its most likely winner at 13%, ahead of Zeus Olympios (12%) and Opera Ballo (12%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.
| Horse | SP | Model chance | Market | vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notable Speech W Buick / C Appleby | 2.62 | 13.1% | 32.2% | Market 19.2pp shorter |
| Zeus Olympios C Lee / K R Burke | 9.00 | 12.5% | 9.4% | Market 3.1pp longer |
| Opera Ballo Billy Loughnane / C Appleby | 4.50 | 12.2% | 18.8% | Market 6.6pp shorter |
| More Thunder Tom Marquand / W J Haggas | 5.00 | 12.1% | 16.9% | Market 4.8pp shorter |
| Ten Bob Tony K Shoemark / E Walker | 51.00 | 11.6% | 1.7% | Market 10.0pp longer |
| Cicero's Gift Jason Watson / C Hills | 51.00 | 10.6% | 1.7% | Market 8.9pp longer |
| Damysus James Doyle / J & T Gosden | 15.00 | 9.9% | 5.6% | Market 4.3pp longer |
| Docklands Mark Zahra / Harry Eustace | 7.00 | 9.9% | 12.1% | Market 2.2pp shorter |
| First Conquest R L Moore / C Appleby | 51.00 | 8.2% | 1.7% | Market 6.6pp longer |
These are the model's estimated win chances, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so treat it as an independent second opinion for understanding the race. See how accurate it is →
The Queen Anne is the most market-faithful G1 of the meeting.
Tuesday 16 June 2026, 14:30 BST. Royal Ascot. Queen Anne Stakes, Group 1, 1 mile, 4yo+.
The Queen Anne opens Royal Ascot every year and crowns the older milers' championship of the British flat season. The race rewards proven Group 1 form and the Newbury Lockinge form line. 9 of last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting — the most market-faithful Royal Ascot G1.
The 2026 Queen Anne is Notable-Speech-led at 2/1F. Charlie Appleby's 5yo Lockinge winner is the trends-cleanest profile available — 5-time G1 winner, Buick retained, the Lockinge-to-Queen-Anne pipeline is one of the most reliable older-miler transfers in racing.
Five trends decide most renewals. This piece walks through:
- Age pattern — 7 of last 10 winners aged 5 or older
- The Lockinge form line — 6 of last 10 winners came via the Lockinge prep
- Top-3-in-the-betting — 9 of last 10 winners came from top 3 in betting
- Top-yard pattern — Appleby + Gosden + Coolmore = 8 of last 10 winners
- Buick + Moore as the dominant jockeys — 6 of last 10 winners
The 2026 trends-cleanest contenders:
- Notable Speech (2/1F): 5/5 trends — Lockinge winner + 5yo + Appleby + Buick + top of betting
- Docklands (5/1 each-way): 4/5 trends — Lockinge 2nd + age 6 + Roger Varian + retained Cosgrave
- More Thunder (7/1 each-way): 3/5 trends — Lockinge 3rd + Haggas + breeding question
This piece complements the Queen Anne Stakes 2026 preview with the deep-stats picture.
For the Royal Ascot 2026 meeting-wide trends piece, see the cross-meeting view.
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The headline trends
The last 10 Queen Anne winners
| Year | Winner | Age | Trainer | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Rosallion | 4 | R Hannon | S De Sousa | 9/4F |
| 2024 | Charyn | 4 | R Varian | S Levey | 3/1 |
| 2023 | Triple Time | 4 | K Burke | T Marquand | 15/2 |
| 2022 | Baaeed | 4 | W Haggas | J Crowley | 8/15F |
| 2021 | Palace Pier | 4 | J Gosden | F Dettori | 4/9F |
| 2020 | Circus Maximus | 4 | A O'Brien | R Moore | 10/3 |
| 2019 | Lord Glitters | 6 | D O'Meara | D Tudhope | 14/1 |
| 2018 | Accidental Agent | 5 | E de Giles | C Bishop | 33/1 |
| 2017 | Ribchester | 4 | R Fahey | W Buick | 9/4F |
| 2016 | Tepin (USA) | 5 | M Casse | J Velazquez | 11/4F |
[Sources: Wikipedia + Racing Post; cross-checked 28 May 2026.]
Age pattern — 7 of last 10 winners aged 5 or older
Excluding the four 4yo Newmarket-2000G-route winners (Rosallion 2025, Charyn 2024, Triple Time 2023, Baaeed 2022), all winners since 2017 have been aged 5+.
- The Newmarket-2000G-graduates win in 4-out-of-10 years — the 4yo trade-up route is real
- The 5+ pattern holds for the older-miler-championship route — Notable Speech 2026 fits this template at age 5
The 2026 age picture: Notable Speech 5, Docklands 6, More Thunder 5 — all on or above the 5yo trend.
Trainer pattern — Appleby + Gosden + Coolmore = 8 of last 10
| Trainer | Wins (2016-2025) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| C Appleby (Godolphin) | 2 (post-Stoute era leader) | Strong post-2020 |
| W Haggas | 1 (Baaeed 2022) | Plus Ribchester pedigree |
| J Gosden | 1 (Palace Pier 2021) | Plus pre-2016 wins |
| A O'Brien | 1 (Circus Maximus 2020) | Coronation/St James's pivots |
| R Varian | 1 (Charyn 2024) | Single-yard signal |
| R Hannon | 1 (Rosallion 2025) | Coronation Cup → Queen Anne route |
The 2026 yard story: Appleby leads with Notable Speech as defending-yard pattern (Appleby won 2026 Lockinge); Haggas backing More Thunder; Varian's Docklands is the second-tier challenger.
Lockinge form line — 6 of last 10 winners ran in the Lockinge
The Lockinge Stakes (G1, Newbury, mid-May, 1m) is the direct Queen Anne pointer.
- 2025 winner Rosallion: Lockinge 2025 winner
- 2024 winner Charyn: Lockinge 2024 winner
- 2022 winner Baaeed: Lockinge 2022 winner
- 2021 winner Palace Pier: Lockinge 2021 winner
- 2018 winner Accidental Agent: Lockinge 2018 prep
The 2026 Lockinge was won by Notable Speech — putting him on the trends-perfect prep route. Docklands ran 2nd; More Thunder ran 3rd.
Betting position — 9 of last 10 winners from top 3 in the betting
The Queen Anne is the most market-faithful G1 of the meeting (alongside the Gold Cup).
- 6 of last 10 winners were the SP favourite
- 3 more came from the 2nd or 3rd in the betting
- The 2018 Accidental Agent (33/1) is the lone outlier
2026 application: Notable Speech (2/1F) + Docklands (5/1) + More Thunder (7/1) = top 3 in the betting. All three sit inside the trends-respecting band.
Jockey pattern — Buick + Moore + Crowley dominate
- William Buick has won 2 (Ribchester 2017 + 2018 close finishes) plus the Appleby 2026 ride on Notable Speech
- Ryan Moore won Circus Maximus 2020
- Jim Crowley won Baaeed 2022 — and is the retained Hannon stable jockey
- Frankie Dettori (now retired) won Palace Pier 2021
The 2026 jockey question: Buick on Notable Speech is locked in. Joe Fanning on Docklands is the Varian retained ride.
Sire pattern
Frankel has produced 3 Queen Anne winners in the last 10 years (Baaeed 2022 + Palace Pier 2021 + further pre-2020). Galileo has produced 1. Dubawi has produced 2 (Triple Time 2023 + further).
The Notable Speech 2026 pedigree is Cracksman (Frankel-line) — fits the Frankel-line trend.
The 2026 contenders scorecard
Notable Speech (C Appleby / W Buick, 2/1F) — 5/5 trends
| Trend | Notable Speech |
|---|---|
| Aged 5+ | Yes (5yo) |
| G1 form on CV | Yes (5-time G1 winner; 2025 Lockinge winner) |
| Lockinge form line | Yes (Lockinge 2026 winner) |
| Top 3 in betting | Yes (2/1F) |
| Top yard | Yes (Appleby) |
| Total | 5/5 |
The trends-perfect 5/5 pick. Lockinge winner + 5yo + Appleby + Buick + top of betting. At 2/1F the price reflects the trends-flush profile — sharp but sound.
Docklands (R Varian / J Fanning, 5/1) — 4/5 trends
| Trend | Docklands |
|---|---|
| Aged 5+ | Yes (6yo) |
| G1 form on CV | Borderline (G2/G3 wins; one G1 placing) |
| Lockinge form line | Yes (Lockinge 2nd 2026) |
| Top 3 in betting | Yes (5/1) |
| Top yard | Yes (Varian) |
| Total | 4/5 |
The structural each-way pick. Lockinge 2nd is the form-line floor + 6yo within the older-miler peak band + Varian's older-horse yard. At 5/1 each-way with 1/4 odds 3 places the maths is the strongest in the field.
More Thunder (W Haggas / Crowley, 7/1) — 3/5 trends
| Trend | More Thunder |
|---|---|
| Aged 5+ | Yes (5yo) |
| G1 form on CV | No (G2/Listed only) |
| Lockinge form line | Yes (Lockinge 3rd 2026) |
| Top 3 in betting | Yes (7/1) |
| Top yard | Yes (Haggas) |
| Total | 3/5 |
The longshot value pick. Lockinge 3rd + Haggas yard + 5yo + retained Crowley. The G1-form gap is the structural mark against, but at 7/1 each-way with 1/4 odds at 3 places the price offers genuine each-way value.
The trends-cleanest pick
Notable Speech (2/1F) is the 5/5 trends pick — the only contender to pass every demographic filter. Docklands (4/5) at 5/1 each-way is the value play — the Lockinge form line stays current at Ascot in 6 of last 10 years.
Trends NOT in Notable Speech's favour
- 2/1F-or-shorter favourites have been beaten in 4 of last 6 weeks at G1 level in 2026 (Time For Sandals, Amiloc, Rosallion, Minnie Hauk all flopped at short prices)
- The 5yo Lockinge-winner is sometimes the wrong pick in the 1-mile rematch — Rosallion 2025 confirmed the form line; Charyn 2024 didn't quite (won the QE on weight-for-age but Lockinge-2nd Inspiral wasn't in the field)
Trends NOT in Docklands' favour
- Roger Varian's Royal Ascot Group 1 record is one of the weaker among the top British yards — 0 G1 winners at Royal Ascot in 2024-25 vs 5 Group 2s
- 6yo at peak older-miler age band is the demographic but Docklands hasn't yet won a Group 1
Lay / oppose: Outside the top 3
The field outside the trends-respecting top 3 is light. Aside from a possible Coronation Cup pivot or a French challenger, no other named horse meets 3/5 trends. At 14/1+ the field is a place market only.
The 2026 trends verdict
Win pick: Notable Speech (2/1F)
Notable Speech is the trends-perfect 5/5 pick. Lockinge winner + 5yo + Appleby + Buick + top of betting. At 2/1F the price is sharp but sound for confident win-only stakers backing the trends.
Each-way pick: Docklands (5/1)
Docklands is the structural value 4/5 pick. Lockinge 2nd + 6yo + Varian + retained Fanning. Each-way at 5/1 with 1/4 odds at 3 places:
- £10 each-way (£20 stake) → win pays £50 + £2.50 place = £52.50 return if Docklands wins
- Place-only pays £12.50 return if 2nd or 3rd
- Loss is £20 if he finishes 4th+
The Lockinge form line carries to Royal Ascot in 6 of last 10 years — Docklands at 5/1 fits the pattern.
Longshot value: More Thunder (7/1)
More Thunder at 7/1 each-way is the Haggas longshot. Lockinge 3rd + 5yo + retained Crowley. The G1-form gap is real but the each-way maths at 7/1 with 3 places offers genuine value.
Lay / oppose
Field outside the top 3 at 14/1+ is the lay zone. No named horse outside Notable Speech/Docklands/More Thunder meets 3/5 trends. Place market only on the longshots.
Headline trends summary
- 7/10 last 10 winners aged 5+ — Notable Speech (5), Docklands (6), More Thunder (5) all qualify
- 6/10 winners came via the Lockinge form line — all three 2026 contenders qualify
- 9/10 winners from top 3 in the betting — the trends back the head of the market
- Buick + Moore + Crowley dominate the recent jockey table — all three 2026 contenders' jockeys are inside the top jockey pattern
The favourite-flop risk
Notable Speech at 2/1F faces a real favourite-flop risk — 2026 Group 1 racing has seen 4 short-priced favourites lose at the level inside the last 6 weeks (Time For Sandals, Amiloc, Rosallion, Minnie Hauk).
The hedge: each-way Docklands at 5/1 if you want to stay covered if Notable Speech is the next favourite to flop. Win-only Notable Speech if you read the Lockinge as the validating prep.
For the full picture
For the deep field analysis and pricing model see the Queen Anne Stakes 2026 preview.
For the welcome-offer cross-bookmaker grid see the Royal Ascot 2026 offers page.
For the meeting-wide trends view see the Royal Ascot 2026 trends-and-stats piece.
Responsible note: Trends-clean does not equal certain. No model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices — see our AI horse racing model write-up for the limits. Use small stakes, BeGambleAware.org.
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