James Maxwell
Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-06-17
Stablebet model — estimated win chances
The model has not yet published an estimate for this race (2026-06-05_epsom_1525). Estimates are generated daily at 09:00 BST from declared fields.
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Friday 5 June 2026, 14:45 BST. Epsom Downs. Coronation Cup, Group 1, 1 mile 4 furlongs 6 yards, 4yo+.
The 2026 Coronation Cup is Aidan O'Brien's older-horse championship target of the spring. The defending champion Jan Brueghel won the 2025 race at 100/30 (Coolmore stable jockey Ryan Moore aboard) -- O'Brien's 10th Coronation Cup, Moore's 5th.
The 2025 race recap [retrospective brief]:
- Jan Brueghel (100/30) beat Calandagan (8/13F) by 1/2 L; Giavellotto (11/2) 7L back 3rd; Continuous (Coolmore stable pacemaker) 5 1/2 L 4th; Ancient Wisdom 5th; Bellum Justum 6th; You Got To Me 7th
- Time 2m 36.13s on Good-to-Soft / Good-in-places
- The race was a tactical masterpiece: Continuous set honest fractions; Moore took the lead 2f out; Jan Brueghel rallied gamely under pressure when briefly headed inside the final furlong
- Calandagan closed his last half-mile in 46.68s -- fractionally faster than the winner -- but the camber and tactical situation cost him
- Timeform put Jan Brueghel up to 128 (from 119p) -- joint-best European older-horse rating of 2025
For 2026: Jan Brueghel returns as the defending champion. Aidan O'Brien typically uses the Coronation Cup → Prince of Wales's Stakes (Royal Ascot) route for his older middle-distance star, which makes the Coronation Cup the named target for his 2026 older-horse spearhead.
The chief threats for 2026 (post-Curragh picture, 27 May):
- Lambourn (4yo) -- last year's Derby winner stepping up to older company. Already 2026-active: won the Huxley Stakes (Chester, 8 May) on his seasonal reappearance, confirming Coolmore Coronation Cup intent. The natural Epsom-2025-winner to Coronation-Cup-2026-runner crossover.
- Almaqam (Ed Walker / Kieran Shoemark, 5yo) — NEW post-Curragh: won the Tattersalls Gold Cup 24 May at 13/2, beating 4/6F Minnie Hauk by 9L. Walker's first G1 of the year. The Coronation Cup is a live alternative if Walker prefers Epsom over the Royal Ascot PoW route on 17 June. See our Tattersalls Gold Cup 2026 Result.
- Calandagan (5yo) -- 2025 Cartier Horse of the Year (KGVI + Saint-Cloud + Champion Stakes). Won the Dubai Sheema Classic on 28 March. Tattersalls Gold Cup status unconfirmed — not in the Curragh top 3. King George (25 July) remains the named target; Coronation Cup is an alternative.
- Whirl (4yo) -- the 2025 G1 Pretty Polly winner; Coolmore-trained, possible step up in trip per the spring stable tour.
- Ombudsman (5yo) -- the 2025 Prince of Wales's winner. Godolphin/Gosden's older-horse spearhead is more typically PoW-direct, not via Coronation Cup, but the route remains a live possibility.
Minnie Hauk's Coronation Cup status: after her 9L flop at 4/6F in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, Coolmore may re-route her to a fillies-only G1 (Pretty Polly, Curragh 27 June; or Lancashire Oaks). The Coronation Cup at level weights against older colts looks the wrong race after the Curragh evidence.
This piece covers the named field, the trends scorecard verdict, and the tips and where-to-bet picture. For the dedicated race-day verdict + each-way value play see our Coronation Cup 2026 tips.
For the broader festival see our Epsom Derby Festival 2026 Preview and the Friday day-by-day preview.
The probable field
Final 5-day declarations close Saturday 30 May; final 48-hour declarations Tuesday 2 June. Group 1 Coronation Cups typically run with 5-8 declared.
| # | Horse | Age | Trainer | Jockey expected | Best price (post-Huxley + Sheema, 18 May) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Brueghel (Galileo) | 5 | A O'Brien | R Moore | 6/4-7/4F (defending) |
| 2 | Lambourn (Australia) | 4 | A O'Brien | (Coolmore 2nd jockey, likely W Lordan) | 3/1-7/2 (Huxley winner 8 May) |
| 3 | Calandagan | 5 | F-H Graffard (Aga Khan) | M Barzalona | 5/1-6/1 (Tattersalls Gold Cup first 24 May) |
| 4 | Whirl | 4 | A O'Brien | (Coolmore 3rd jockey) | 8/1-10/1 |
| 5 | Hidden Force (Frankel) | 4 | C Appleby | W Buick | 12/1 |
| 6 | Rebel's Romance (Dubawi, 2025 Hardwicke winner) | 7 | C Appleby | TBC | 14/1 (Hardwicke route more likely) |
[Source: 2025 Coronation Cup retrospective brief; Coolmore stable tour 2026; Huxley Stakes 2026 result (Lambourn winner 8 May); Aga Khan Studs racing manager Nemone Routh quoted on Calandagan's 2026 plans; Coronation Cup ante-post grid post-Huxley.]
2026 Trawlerman / Sweet William update. Both Gosden stayers are on the Gold Cup route (Trawlerman defends; Sweet William chases via the 2026 Sagaro win); neither runs in the Coronation Cup. Royal Ascot Gold Cup ante-post: Scandinavia 2/1F, Trawlerman 10/3, Sweet William 13/2, Rahiebb 7/1 — see our Royal Ascot 2026 ante-post page.
The defending champion -- Jan Brueghel
The 2024 St Leger winner (beat Illinois a neck) and 2025 Coronation Cup winner. Galileo colt with Timeform 128 post-2025 -- joint-best European older horse of 2025.
O'Brien's 2026 stable tour [retrospective brief]: framed Jan Brueghel as the stable's older-horse spearhead after Kyprios's retirement. The standard Coolmore route is Coronation Cup (5 June) → Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot (17 June); O'Brien noted at the press morning that "the Ormonde might suit as a perfect prep for that, which we did with St Nicholas Abbey [in 2011]... I'm seeing him as a mile-and-a-half horse" [Racing Post].
Trends fit: the defending champion + named lead + top 3 in betting + 5yo (within the 5+ winning template) = trends-cleanest pick of the field.
The chief threat -- Calandagan
Aga Khan Studs's 5yo gelding — 2025 Cartier Horse of the Year. Won the King George VI & QE Stakes, Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, and QIPCO British Champion Stakes in 2025 (the first horse to win both the King George and the Champion Stakes in the same season since Brigadier Gerard in 1972). Was 1/2L 2nd to Jan Brueghel in the 2025 Coronation Cup; closed his last half-mile in 46.68s, fractionally faster than the winner but the camber + tactical situation cost him.
2026 return: Won the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan on 28 March. First European 2026 target is the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh on Sun 24 May, with the Coronation Cup an alternative depending on form-line shape.
For Coronation Cup 2026: if Graffard runs him at Epsom, he is the strongest non-Coolmore threat. Most likely route: Tattersalls Gold Cup → King George rather than back to the Coronation Cup, but a clean Tattersalls Gold Cup win could pivot the schedule.
The 2025 Derby winner stepping up -- Lambourn (4yo)
The 2025 Derby winner (13/2 SP under Wayne Lordan) at age 3 in 2025; in 2026 he steps up to older middle-distance company at age 4. The Coolmore stable tour confirmed the Coronation Cup as the 2026 spring target for the King George route, and Lambourn validated the plan with a winning Huxley Stakes return at Chester on 8 May 2026 (see our Huxley Stakes 2026 result).
Trends fit: former Derby winner stepping up; 4yo within the wider winning template (Cracksman 2018 won at 4yo; Emily Upjohn 2023 won at 4yo); Coolmore-trained. The post-Huxley price (3/1-7/2) reflects this -- he's a class horse who has now confirmed himself as 2026-ready.
The Whirl angle
Aidan O'Brien's 4yo Galileo filly -- the 2025 G1 Pretty Polly winner (+5 1/2 L Musidora before that). Whirl is mostly likely Coronation Cup-bound per the 2026 Coolmore stable tour: "Whirl has been retained for older fillies' division -- could come back here at 4 if connections want to step up in trip".
4yo fillies have won the Coronation Cup historically -- this is a possible Coolmore second-string play if Whirl confirms.
Confirmed non-runners / reroutes
| Horse | Reason | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Kyprios (3-time Gold Cup winner) | Retired Coolmore America late 2025 | Coolmore America |
| Auguste Rodin | Retired late 2025 | Coolmore stud announcement |
| City Of Troy | Retired late 2025 | Coolmore stud announcement |
Trends scorecard for the 2026 Coronation Cup
The Coronation Cup is the most market-faithful older-middle-distance Group 1 of the British calendar. Five trends that decide most renewals.
The five trends
- Aged 5+. 8 of last 10 winners aged 5 or older. The Coronation Cup rewards experience over the unique Epsom camber.
- Group 1 form on CV at 1m4f. 9/10 of last winners had a Group 1 at the trip on CV (St Leger, King George, Arc, Eclipse 1m2f-1m4f).
- Top 2 in betting. 9 of last 10 winners came from top 2 in betting -- the most market-faithful older-horse Group 1 of the spring.
- Coolmore advantage. Aidan O'Brien is 10 wins -- the most-dominant trainer-race combination in modern Coronation Cup racing.
- Course-and-camber familiarity. Epsom 1m4f rewards a traveller and quickener with experience of cambered tracks, not pure rolling stayers. Geegeez 23-renewal trends showed only 1 winner from stall 1 and 8 of 12 winners from stall 5 or lower.
The scorecard (top 4 named contenders at 4 May 2026)
| Trend | Jan Brueghel (6/4-7/4F) | Lambourn (3/1-7/2) | Calandagan (5/1-6/1) | Whirl (8/1-10/1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Aged 5+ | Yes (5) | No (4) | Yes (5) | No (4) |
| 2. G1 form at 1m4f | Yes (Coronation Cup defending; St Leger 2024) | Yes (Derby + Irish Derby 2025) | Yes (KGVI + Saint-Cloud + Champion Stakes 2025) | Yes (Pretty Polly 2025) |
| 3. Top 2 in betting | Yes (favourite) | Yes (joint 2nd-fav post-Huxley) | Borderline (3rd-4th) | No (5th) |
| 4. Coolmore-trained | Yes | Yes | No (Aga Khan Studs) | Yes |
| 5. Camber-handling | Yes (won 2025) | Yes (won Derby 2025) | Borderline (2nd 2025; closer was faster but camber cost him) | TBC (no Epsom runs) |
| Confirmed passing | 5/5 | 4/5 (only age trend miss) | 3.5/5 | 2/5 |
Reading the scorecard:
-
Jan Brueghel is the trends-cleanest contender by a clear margin -- 5/5 trends confirmed. The defending champion meets every demographic filter, including the camber-handling trend (he won the 2025 race despite Calandagan having faster closing fractions). At 6/4-7/4F the price respects this fully.
-
Lambourn ticks 4/5 -- the only miss is the age trend (4yo vs 5+ template). However the 4yo trend is not absolute: Cracksman 2018 and Emily Upjohn 2023 both won at 4yo. The 2025 Derby + Irish Derby double + post-Huxley winning return = strong qualifying CV. 3/1-7/2 is the structural value pick of the field.
-
Calandagan ticks 3.5/5 -- the camber-handling trend marks him down (he was 1/2 L 2nd in 2025 but closer was faster). More likely to be at the Tattersalls Gold Cup (Curragh 24 May) than the Coronation Cup; only a clean Curragh win + connections' decision could pivot him back.
-
Whirl ticks 2/5 -- age (4yo), 1m4f untested at top level, and not top 2 in the betting all mark her down. The Coronation Cup rewards 5+ horses; 4yo Pretty Polly winners are a structural stretch.
Recent winners (2018-2025)
| Year | Winner | Trainer | SP | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Cracksman | J Gosden | 4/9F | 4 |
| 2019 | Defoe | R Varian | 11/2 | 5 |
| 2020 | Ghaiyyath | C Appleby | 5/6F | 5 |
| 2021 | Pyledriver | W Muir | 7/2 | 4 |
| 2022 | Hukum | O Burrows | 5/4F | 5 |
| 2023 | Emily Upjohn | J & T Gosden | 11/8F | 4 |
| 2024 | Luxembourg | A O'Brien | 9/4 | 5 |
| 2025 | Jan Brueghel | A O'Brien | 100/30 | 5 |
[Sources: Wikipedia + Racing Post; cross-checked 18 May 2026.]
The pattern is unmistakable. 7 of 8 recent winners were sent off favourite or 2nd favourite; 5 of 8 aged 5+, 3 of 8 aged 4; the Cracksman / Ghaiyyath / Hukum / Jan Brueghel "5yo top-of-betting" template is the strongest historical filter, but the 4yo Cracksman + Pyledriver + Emily Upjohn record means the age trend is not absolute. Aidan O'Brien is back-to-back winner (2024 Luxembourg + 2025 Jan Brueghel), strengthening the Coolmore yard signal for 2026.
Tips and where to bet
Win: Jan Brueghel (6/4-7/4F) (A O'Brien / R Moore). 5/5 trends confirmed. Defending champion, age 5, Coolmore-trained, named lead. Banker for accumulator builders; marginal for win-only at 6/4.
Each-way: Lambourn (3/1-7/2) (A O'Brien / Coolmore 2nd jockey, likely W Lordan). 4/5 trends confirmed (only age trend missed). The 2025 Derby winner stepping up — confirmed 2026-fit after winning the Huxley Stakes at Chester on 8 May. Each-way with 1/4 odds 3 places returns meaningful place value if Jan Brueghel wins as expected.
Lay/oppose: Calandagan at 5/1-6/1 — most likely heading to the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh (24 May) rather than the Coronation Cup. If priced under 4/1 race-week, the value collapses.
Sentiment watch: Ryan Moore's stable jockey decision. Moore rode Jan Brueghel to win the 2025 Coronation Cup; he's expected to retain the ride for the defence. If Moore opts for Lambourn instead, the market signal is significant — Coolmore tends to switch Moore to the perceived best chance late.
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For the cross-bookmaker view of Coronation Cup 2026 offers see our bookmakers index.
Responsible note
This piece is a transparent application of the trends-scorecard format to the named field. It is not a guarantee of profit -- as we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, no model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices. The Coronation Cup's market-faithful pattern means the favourite usually wins if the trends-fit is clean -- but a 5/4 favourite is short value for win-only. Bet only money you can afford to lose, set limits, BeGambleAware.org.
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