Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-07-10
Saturday 6 June 2026, 15:30 BST. Epsom Downs. Betfred Derby, Group 1, 1m4f6y, 3yo c/g, GBP 2,000,000 (joint richest race in Britain alongside the King George).
The 2026 Epsom Derby is the year's biggest 3yo Classic. With prize money matching the King George at GBP 2 million for the first time, the Derby is now the joint-most-valuable flat race in Britain.
The 2026 trends-cleanest pre-meeting profile -- before declarations -- is built around four trial form lines:
- Chester Vase (Wed 6 May) -- won by Benvenuto Cellini by 4¼ L; 9/4 ante-post Derby favourite
- Dante Stakes (Thu 14 May) -- Christmas Day (A O'Brien) 3/1 ante-post
- Lingfield Derby Trial (Sat 9 May) -- Isaac Newton (A O'Brien) 7/2F
- Leopardstown Derby Trial (Sun 10 May) -- Pierre Bonnard's last-chance reset
This piece pulls the last 10 years of trends -- winning trainers, sires, draws, jockeys, trial form lines -- with the trends-cleanest pre-Epsom profile + the structural patterns that have actually paid out over time.
Headline trend signals:
- Aidan O'Brien is going for an unprecedented 4-in-a-row at Epsom: Auguste Rodin (2023), City Of Troy (2024), Lambourn (2025), Benvenuto Cellini (2026?)
- 9/4 ante-post on Benvenuto Cellini is the most market-faithful Derby pick since City Of Troy in 2024
- No Lingfield Derby Trial winner has won the Epsom Derby since 2010 -- the trial-to-Epsom conversion gap
- 2 Dante Stakes winners have won the Epsom Derby since 2010 (Golden Horn 2015, Desert Crown 2022)
For the full Epsom Derby 2026 tips and the Epsom Derby Festival 2026 hub for the broader weekend coverage.
Where to Bet
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Last 10 Epsom Derby winners
| Year | Winner | Trainer | Jockey | SP | Trial form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lambourn | A O'Brien | Wayne Lordan | 13/2 | Chester Vase winner |
| 2024 | City Of Troy | A O'Brien | Ryan Moore | 11/8F | (no trial — Dewhurst form) |
| 2023 | Auguste Rodin | A O'Brien | Ryan Moore | 9/2 | Ballysax winner |
| 2022 | Desert Crown | Sir Michael Stoute | Richard Kingscote | 5/2 | Dante winner |
| 2021 | Adayar | C Appleby | Adam Kirby | 16/1 | Lingfield Derby Trial 2nd |
| 2020 | Serpentine | A O'Brien | Emmet McNamara | 25/1 | Cork maiden winner |
| 2019 | Anthony Van Dyck | A O'Brien | Seamie Heffernan | 13/2 | Derby Trial 2nd |
| 2018 | Masar | C Appleby | William Buick | 16/1 | UAE Derby winner |
| 2017 | Wings Of Eagles | A O'Brien | Padraig Beggy | 40/1 | -- |
| 2016 | Harzand | Dermot Weld | Pat Smullen | 13/2 | Ballysax winner |
| 2015 | Golden Horn | J Gosden | Frankie Dettori | 13/8F | Dante winner |
[Sources: Wikipedia, OLBG, geegeez.co.uk; cross-checked.]
Key reads from the last 10 Epsom Derby winners:
Trainer pattern
- Aidan O'Brien has 6 of the last 10 winners -- by far the dominant single-yard signal (Auguste Rodin, City Of Troy, Lambourn 2023-2025 streak; plus Serpentine, Anthony Van Dyck, Wings Of Eagles)
- Charlie Appleby has 2 in the last 10 (Adayar 2021, Masar 2018)
- Sir Michael Stoute has 1 (Desert Crown 2022) -- now retired, void for 2026
- John Gosden has 1 (Golden Horn 2015)
- Dermot Weld has 1 (Harzand 2016)
Trial pipeline
- Chester Vase has produced 2 of last 10 Derby winners (Lambourn 2025, plus historical Stoute pattern)
- Dante Stakes has produced 2 of last 10 Derby winners (Desert Crown 2022, Golden Horn 2015)
- Ballysax (Leopardstown) has produced 2 of last 10 (Auguste Rodin 2023, Harzand 2016)
- Lingfield Derby Trial has produced 0 of last 10 Derby winners -- only 2nd-place finishers (Adayar 2021)
- No-trial Coolmore Dewhurst-line winners: City Of Troy 2024 was the surprise pattern
SP / market patterns
- 2 of the last 10 Derby winners were favourites (City Of Troy 11/8F 2024, Golden Horn 13/8F 2015) -- favourites win less than 1-in-3
- 2 of the last 10 won at 25/1+ (Serpentine 25/1 2020, Wings Of Eagles 40/1 2017) -- the Coolmore-second-string surprise pattern
- The 9/2 to 13/2 SP range produced 4 winners -- the structural value-zone
Jockey pattern
- Ryan Moore has 2 wins in the last 10 (City Of Troy, Auguste Rodin) -- the deployment-marker
- Wayne Lordan has 1 (Lambourn 2025)
- Aidan O'Brien's stable jockey wins typically come from the named first-choice
For the 2026 trends-clean profile see section 4.
The 2026 trial pipeline
Chester Vase (Wed 6 May) -- Benvenuto Cellini, 4¼ L winner
The Chester Vase form line is the strongest pre-Epsom signal of 2026. Benvenuto Cellini won by 4¼ L from stablemate Proposition -- a Coolmore tactical 1-2 with the front three positions all Coolmore-bred. Pattern: 2 of last 10 Derby winners came directly from the Chester Vase.
The 9/4 ante-post Derby favourite price is the most market-faithful Coolmore Derby pick since City Of Troy in 2024. The Vase form line + Coolmore + Frankel + Ryan Moore booking = the trends-cleanest 5/5 profile.
Dante Stakes (Thu 14 May) -- Christmas Day at 3/1
The Dante Stakes is the most important Derby trial of all time on a per-decade basis. Christmas Day (Aidan O'Brien) at 3/1 ante-post is the favoured pick after Raaheeb's withdrawal. Pattern: 2 Dante winners have won the Derby in the last decade (Golden Horn 2015, Desert Crown 2022).
The Dante is the second-most-likely trial-to-Epsom-winner pipeline behind the Chester Vase. A Christmas Day Dante win shifts the Derby market -- if he wins, expect his Derby price to compress to 5/1 to 13/2 from the current ~10/1.
Lingfield Derby Trial (Sat 9 May) -- Isaac Newton 7/2F
Lingfield is the WEAKEST of the four named UK Derby trials in terms of trial-to-Epsom conversion. Isaac Newton (A O'Brien) at 7/2F is the named Coolmore Lingfield runner. Pattern: 0 Lingfield Derby Trial winners have won the Epsom Derby since 2010 -- only 2nd-place finishers (Adayar 2021).
A Lingfield win for Isaac Newton makes him a Derby contender at 12/1 to 16/1, but the historical conversion gap is real.
Race result update (Sat 9 May): Maltese Cross (William Haggas / Tom Marquand) won 9/4F by a neck from Bay Of Brilliance. Maltese Cross is now 8/1 to 10/1 ante-post Derby -- the trends-cleanest non-Coolmore Derby contender. Isaac Newton (5th) is effectively out of the picture; Maho Bay (Appleby, 4th from 11/8F) makes the Dante less likely.
Leopardstown Derby Trial (Sun 10 May) -- Pierre Bonnard's last-chance saloon
Aidan O'Brien typically runs Pierre Bonnard at Leopardstown as the colt's reset opportunity after his Ballysax flop. Pattern: 2 Ballysax winners have won the Derby in the last decade (Auguste Rodin 2023, Harzand 2016) -- a similar conversion rate to the Dante.
Race result update (Sun 10 May): James J Braddock (Joseph O'Brien / Dylan Browne McMonagle) won 9/1 by a short head over Pierre Bonnard (5/6F). Pierre Bonnard finished 2nd for the second consecutive defeat as odds-on favourite -- his Derby price drifted from 6/1 to 14/1 with Betfred and the supplement is now unlikely. James J Braddock entered at 33/1 Derby; Joseph O'Brien hinted post-race that a supplement is on the table.
The non-trial Coolmore second-strings
Coolmore typically runs 4-5 in the Derby itself -- Benvenuto Cellini as the lead, plus 2-3 second-strings. Pattern: 2 of last 10 Derby winners were Coolmore second-strings at 25/1+ (Serpentine 2020, Wings Of Eagles 2017). The longshot from the same Coolmore yard at 25/1+ is the structural surprise pattern.
What the trial pipeline tells us going into Saturday 6 June
The 2026 Coolmore Derby ladder:
- Benvenuto Cellini (Chester Vase winner) -- 9/4 Derby, the form-line tested favourite
- Christmas Day (Dante runner Thu 14 May) -- 10/1 to 12/1 unless he wins the Dante
- Isaac Newton (Lingfield Derby Trial Sat 9 May) -- 16/1+ unless he wins
- Pierre Bonnard (Leopardstown Derby Trial Sun 10 May) -- 12/1+ unless he wins
Aidan O'Brien is set up for an unprecedented 4-in-a-row at Epsom -- Auguste Rodin → City Of Troy → Lambourn → Benvenuto Cellini.
For the Epsom Derby 2026 tips for the race-by-race verdict.
The 2026 trends-cleanest profile
The 5/5 trends pick: Benvenuto Cellini (~9/4F)
| Trend | Confirmed by Benvenuto Cellini |
|---|---|
| Aidan O'Brien yard signal (6/10 winners) | ✓ |
| Chester Vase or Dante form line (4/10 winners) | ✓ (Chester Vase 4¼ L winner) |
| Frankel sire | ✓ |
| Ryan Moore booking | ✓ |
| Top-3 in betting market | ✓ (~9/4F) |
5/5 trends confirmed for Benvenuto Cellini. The trends-cleanest 2026 Epsom Derby pick.
Win-only verdict
Benvenuto Cellini at 9/4F win-only is reasonable -- the cleanest form-line + yard + sire + jockey combination of the last 10 years. Coolmore's 4-in-a-row run is the structural argument, even if the 9/2 to 13/2 SP zone has produced more winners (4) than 9/4-or-shorter (2 -- City Of Troy 2024, Golden Horn 2015).
Each-way value: Coolmore second-string at 25/1+
The structural longshot pattern at Epsom is the Coolmore second-string. 2 of the last 10 Epsom Derby winners came from this exact pattern: Serpentine (25/1, 2020) and Wings Of Eagles (40/1, 2017). The same Aidan O'Brien yard, at the longer-priced second/third stable runner, is the structural value play.
Watch for Coolmore's 4-5-handed Derby field at the 48-hour declarations stage on Wednesday 3 June. The longshot from the same yard at 25/1+ is the each-way value pick.
Win-only longshot: Christmas Day (~10/1)
If Christmas Day wins the Dante on Thursday 14 May, his Derby price compresses to 5/1 to 13/2. Pre-Dante at 10/1 to 12/1 ante-post is the structural value play -- assuming he wins the Dante, the 10/1 ante-post becomes 6/1 the following day.
Calculate your each-way return: Open the Each-Way Calculator →
What could derail Benvenuto Cellini
- A surprise from the Dante -- if Christmas Day or Morshdi (Haggas) wins the Dante by 5+ L on Thursday 14 May, the Derby market reorganises
- Soft or heavy ground -- Benvenuto Cellini's Chester Vase was on Good; Epsom can be variable in early June
- Coolmore strategy -- if Aidan O'Brien decides to deploy Christmas Day or Isaac Newton as the lead at Epsom rather than Benvenuto Cellini, the value reorganises
Where to bet
Most major UK bookmakers carry the Derby in their daily Specials and ante-post markets. Best Odds Guaranteed is available at Bet365, William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, and Betfred (Star Sports removed BOG in December 2024).
For our bookmaker reviews see the bookmakers hub.
Responsible betting reminder: the Epsom Derby is high-class Group 1 Classic racing. Use small stakes, each-way bets in big fields, and stop when you've reached your budget. Free help: BeGambleAware.org.
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