Epsom Derby 2026 Trends & Stats: Last 10 Winners and Profile

Last 10 Epsom Derby winners

Year	Winner	Trainer	Jockey	SP	Trial form
2025	Lambourn	A O'Brien	Wayne Lordan	13/2	Chester Vase winner
2024	City Of Troy	A O'Brien	Ryan Moore	11/8F	(no trial — Dewhurst form)
2023	Auguste Rodin	A O'Brien	Ryan Moore	9/2	Ballysax winner
2022	Desert Crown	Sir Michael Stoute	Richard Kingscote	5/2	Dante winner
2021	Adayar	C Appleby	Adam Kirby	16/1	Lingfield Derby Trial 2nd
2020	Serpentine	A O'Brien	Emmet McNamara	25/1	Cork maiden winner
2019	Anthony Van Dyck	A O'Brien	Seamie Heffernan	13/2	Derby Trial 2nd
2018	Masar	C Appleby	William Buick	16/1	UAE Derby winner
2017	Wings Of Eagles	A O'Brien	Padraig Beggy	40/1	--
2016	Harzand	Dermot Weld	Pat Smullen	13/2	Ballysax winner
2015	Golden Horn	J Gosden	Frankie Dettori	13/8F	Dante winner

[Sources: Wikipedia, OLBG, geegeez.co.uk; cross-checked.]

Key reads from the last 10 Epsom Derby winners:

Trainer pattern

• Aidan O'Brien has 6 of the last 10 winners -- by far the dominant single-yard signal (Auguste Rodin, City Of Troy, Lambourn 2023-2025 streak; plus Serpentine, Anthony Van Dyck, Wings Of Eagles)
• Charlie Appleby has 2 in the last 10 (Adayar 2021, Masar 2018)
• Sir Michael Stoute has 1 (Desert Crown 2022) -- now retired, void for 2026
• John Gosden has 1 (Golden Horn 2015)
• Dermot Weld has 1 (Harzand 2016)

Trial pipeline

• Chester Vase has produced 2 of last 10 Derby winners (Lambourn 2025, plus historical Stoute pattern)
• Dante Stakes has produced 2 of last 10 Derby winners (Desert Crown 2022, Golden Horn 2015)
• Ballysax (Leopardstown) has produced 2 of last 10 (Auguste Rodin 2023, Harzand 2016)
• Lingfield Derby Trial has produced 0 of last 10 Derby winners -- only 2nd-place finishers (Adayar 2021)
• No-trial Coolmore Dewhurst-line winners: City Of Troy 2024 was the surprise pattern

SP / market patterns

• 2 of the last 10 Derby winners were favourites (City Of Troy 11/8F 2024, Golden Horn 13/8F 2015) -- favourites win less than 1-in-3
• 2 of the last 10 won at 25/1+ (Serpentine 25/1 2020, Wings Of Eagles 40/1 2017) -- the Coolmore-second-string surprise pattern
• The 9/2 to 13/2 SP range produced 4 winners -- the structural value-zone

Jockey pattern

• Ryan Moore has 2 wins in the last 10 (City Of Troy, Auguste Rodin) -- the deployment-marker
• Wayne Lordan has 1 (Lambourn 2025)
• Aidan O'Brien's stable jockey wins typically come from the named first-choice

For the 2026 trends-clean profile see section 4.

The 2026 trial pipeline

Chester Vase (Wed 6 May) -- Benvenuto Cellini, 4¼ L winner

The Chester Vase form line is the strongest pre-Epsom signal of 2026. Benvenuto Cellini won by 4¼ L from stablemate Proposition -- a Coolmore tactical 1-2 with the front three positions all Coolmore-bred. Pattern: 2 of last 10 Derby winners came directly from the Chester Vase.

The 9/4 ante-post Derby favourite price is the most market-faithful Coolmore Derby pick since City Of Troy in 2024. The Vase form line + Coolmore + Frankel + Ryan Moore booking = the trends-cleanest 5/5 profile.

Dante Stakes (Thu 14 May) -- Christmas Day at 3/1

The Dante Stakes is the most important Derby trial of all time on a per-decade basis. Christmas Day (Aidan O'Brien) at 3/1 ante-post is the favoured pick after Raaheeb's withdrawal. Pattern: 2 Dante winners have won the Derby in the last decade (Golden Horn 2015, Desert Crown 2022).

The Dante is the second-most-likely trial-to-Epsom-winner pipeline behind the Chester Vase. A Christmas Day Dante win shifts the Derby market -- if he wins, expect his Derby price to compress to 5/1 to 13/2 from the current ~10/1.

Lingfield Derby Trial (Sat 9 May) -- Isaac Newton 7/2F

Lingfield is the WEAKEST of the four named UK Derby trials in terms of trial-to-Epsom conversion. Isaac Newton (A O'Brien) at 7/2F is the named Coolmore Lingfield runner. Pattern: 0 Lingfield Derby Trial winners have won the Epsom Derby since 2010 -- only 2nd-place finishers (Adayar 2021).

A Lingfield win for Isaac Newton makes him a Derby contender at 12/1 to 16/1, but the historical conversion gap is real.

Leopardstown Derby Trial (Sun 10 May) -- Pierre Bonnard's last-chance saloon

Aidan O'Brien typically runs Pierre Bonnard at Leopardstown as the colt's reset opportunity after his Ballysax flop. Pattern: 2 Ballysax winners have won the Derby in the last decade (Auguste Rodin 2023, Harzand 2016) -- a similar conversion rate to the Dante.

Pierre Bonnard's price has drifted to 12/1+ for the Derby; a Leopardstown win on Sunday 10 May resets him to 8/1.

The non-trial Coolmore second-strings

Coolmore typically runs 4-5 in the Derby itself -- Benvenuto Cellini as the lead, plus 2-3 second-strings. Pattern: 2 of last 10 Derby winners were Coolmore second-strings at 25/1+ (Serpentine 2020, Wings Of Eagles 2017). The longshot from the same Coolmore yard at 25/1+ is the structural surprise pattern.

What the trial pipeline tells us going into Saturday 6 June

The 2026 Coolmore Derby ladder:

1. Benvenuto Cellini (Chester Vase winner) -- 9/4 Derby, the form-line tested favourite
2. Christmas Day (Dante runner Thu 14 May) -- 10/1 to 12/1 unless he wins the Dante
3. Isaac Newton (Lingfield Derby Trial Sat 9 May) -- 16/1+ unless he wins
4. Pierre Bonnard (Leopardstown Derby Trial Sun 10 May) -- 12/1+ unless he wins

Aidan O'Brien is set up for an unprecedented 4-in-a-row at Epsom -- Auguste Rodin → City Of Troy → Lambourn → Benvenuto Cellini.

For the Epsom Derby 2026 tips for the race-by-race verdict.

The 2026 trends-cleanest profile

The 5/5 trends pick: Benvenuto Cellini (~9/4F)

Trend	Confirmed by Benvenuto Cellini
Aidan O'Brien yard signal (6/10 winners)	✓
Chester Vase or Dante form line (4/10 winners)	✓ (Chester Vase 4¼ L winner)
Frankel sire	✓
Ryan Moore booking	✓
Top-3 in betting market	✓ (~9/4F)

5/5 trends confirmed for Benvenuto Cellini. The trends-cleanest 2026 Epsom Derby pick.

Win-only verdict

Benvenuto Cellini at 9/4F win-only is reasonable -- the cleanest form-line + yard + sire + jockey combination of the last 10 years. Coolmore's 4-in-a-row run is the structural argument, even if the 9/2 to 13/2 SP zone has produced more winners (4) than 9/4-or-shorter (2 -- City Of Troy 2024, Golden Horn 2015).

Each-way value: Coolmore second-string at 25/1+

The structural longshot pattern at Epsom is the Coolmore second-string. 2 of the last 10 Epsom Derby winners came from this exact pattern: Serpentine (25/1, 2020) and Wings Of Eagles (40/1, 2017). The same Aidan O'Brien yard, at the longer-priced second/third stable runner, is the structural value play.

Watch for Coolmore's 4-5-handed Derby field at the 48-hour declarations stage on Wednesday 3 June. The longshot from the same yard at 25/1+ is the each-way value pick.

Win-only longshot: Christmas Day (~10/1)

If Christmas Day wins the Dante on Thursday 14 May, his Derby price compresses to 5/1 to 13/2. Pre-Dante at 10/1 to 12/1 ante-post is the structural value play -- assuming he wins the Dante, the 10/1 ante-post becomes 6/1 the following day.

Calculate your each-way return: Open the Each-Way Calculator →

What could derail Benvenuto Cellini

1. A surprise from the Dante -- if Christmas Day or Morshdi (Haggas) wins the Dante by 5+ L on Thursday 14 May, the Derby market reorganises
2. Soft or heavy ground -- Benvenuto Cellini's Chester Vase was on Good; Epsom can be variable in early June
3. Coolmore strategy -- if Aidan O'Brien decides to deploy Christmas Day or Isaac Newton as the lead at Epsom rather than Benvenuto Cellini, the value reorganises

Where to bet

Most major UK bookmakers carry the Derby in their daily Specials and ante-post markets. Best Odds Guaranteed is available at Bet365, William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, and Betfred (Star Sports removed BOG in December 2024).

For our bookmaker reviews see the bookmakers hub.

Responsible betting reminder: the Epsom Derby is high-class Group 1 Classic racing. Use small stakes, each-way bets in big fields, and stop when you've reached your budget. Free help: BeGambleAware.org.