Dante Stakes 2026 Preview: Christmas Day, Raaheeb & the Coolmore-Godolphin Chess Match

The probable field at the entries-and-probables stage

51 entries stood on York's official list at 31 March 2026. A typical 8-11 will run at the 5-day declarations stage on Saturday 9 May; final 48-hour declarations Tuesday 12 May.

#	Horse	Trainer	Jockey expected	Industry best (2 May)
1	Raaheeb (Sea The Stars)	O Burrows	Rossa Ryan	3/1
2	Christmas Day (Camelot)	A O'Brien	(Coolmore senior)	5/1
3	Hawk Mountain (Wootton Bassett)	A O'Brien	(Coolmore senior)	6/1
4	Poseidon's Warrior (TBC)	C Appleby	W Buick	7/1
5	Maho Bay (TBC)	C Appleby	W Buick	8/1
6	Constitution River (Wootton Bassett)	A O'Brien (Dee likely)	(Coolmore 2nd)	10/1
7	Item (TBC)	A Balding	TBC	10/1
8	Action	TBC	TBC	12/1
9	Saxon Street	R Beckett	TBC	12/1
10	King's Trail (Sea The Stars)	C Appleby	J Doyle	12/1
11	Wise Prince	J & T Gosden	TBC	14/1
12	Benvenuto Cellini (Frankel)	A O'Brien (Chester Vase route)	R Moore	20/1

[Source: At The Races + racing-odds.com consolidated industry market 2 May 2026; York Racecourse 31 March entries press release; Coolmore stable tour 2026; Burrows yard quotes 24 April; Charlie Appleby press communications.]

The market leader -- Raaheeb (3/1)

Owen Burrows's 3yo Sea The Stars colt -- full-brother to Baaeed and Hukum, the Shadwell-bred star miler/middle-distance horses of the early 2020s. Won the Sandown bet365 Classic Trial on 24 April by 3 1/4 L from Charlie Appleby's Al Zanati under Rossa Ryan, with John & Thady Gosden's Wise Prince a further 4 1/4 L back in third.

Burrows's reaction was deliberately cautious: "He'll definitely stay and Rossa thought he quickened up again at the finish... He's in the Dante, but that could come a bit quick. We'll see how he comes out of this before we decide when we run again" [RTÉ 24/4/26]. A late absentee remains possible if the Dante is judged too soon.

Trends fit: sound the Sandown-Classic-Trial-form-line trend (4/10 of the last 10 Dante winners came via Sandown's bet365 Classic Trial); top of the betting; right yard for an emerging Group 1 horse.

The named Coolmore Dante runner -- Christmas Day (5/1)

The only Coolmore colt O'Brien has explicitly named for the Dante. Camelot colt who won the G3 Ballysax at Leopardstown on 12 April 2026 by 1/2 L from stablemate Endorsement at 11/1 [TDN 12/4/26].

Crucially, O'Brien's press morning on 28 April flagged a clear team split: "He [Benvenuto Cellini] was going to Epsom for the Blue Riband Trial, but it's been put back a week now so we might go for the Chester Vase on the way to Epsom" [Racing Post 28/4/26]. The pattern reads as Benvenuto Cellini → Chester Vase, Christmas Day → Dante, Pierre Bonnard → Leopardstown Derby Trial, with Italy and Constitution River pointed at the Dee.

O'Brien on Christmas Day specifically: "He was always a very solid horse and the plan last year was to run in a Group One in France, but he got a temperature and couldn't go. We always liked him and we think that [York] will work well for him" [The Irish Field 20/4/26].

The Coolmore second runner -- Hawk Mountain (6/1)

Wootton Bassett colt, high-class juvenile in 2025, came back at age 3 with a tame 4th-of-5 at 2/1 in the 16 April Craven Stakes behind Gosden's Oxagon. O'Brien on Hawk Mountain: "Hawk Mountain will be trained for Epsom or France. If some of the other horses go to Epsom he'd be a possible to go to France as he'd be very comfortable at a mile and a quarter. He'll run in a trial first" [Racing Post].

Trends fit: Coolmore-trained, top-3-in-betting border, but the Craven flop is a real concern. At 6/1 the price expresses the form-line uncertainty.

The Appleby pair -- Poseidon's Warrior (7/1) and Maho Bay (8/1)

Poseidon's Warrior has hit the crossbar twice in three weeks: 2nd to William Haggas's Morshdi in the Listed Feilden on 15 April (1L), then bumped and beaten 2L by Charlie Johnston's 16/1 outsider Ancient Egypt in the Listed JCB Newmarket Stakes on 1 May. The first-time hood didn't help.

Maho Bay is the Appleby second-string -- easy 11/10 Craven-meeting novice winner over O'Brien's Amadeus Mozart. Appleby noted "he might be a bit more of a French Derby horse" but the Dante remains live.

The supporting cast

• Wise Prince (Gosden) -- third in the bet365 Sandown
• Item (Balding) -- Group 1 Futurity 4th
• Saxon Street (Beckett) -- progressive but unproven at G2 level
• King's Trail (Appleby) -- Sea The Stars colt; entered for both 2000 Guineas and Dante; route may pivot

Confirmed non-runners / reroutes

Horse	Reason	Source
Pierre Bonnard (A O'Brien)	Leopardstown Derby Trial route, NOT Dante	Racing Post 28 April
Benvenuto Cellini (A O'Brien)	Chester Vase route on Wed 6 May	Racing Post 20 April; TDN 20 April
Italy / Constitution River (A O'Brien)	Dee Stakes route on Wed 6 May	O'Brien press morning 20 April

Trends scorecard for the 2026 Dante Stakes

The Dante Stakes is the most form-faithful Derby trial in the calendar. Five trends decide most renewals.

The five trends

1. Has G2/G3 trial form within 6 weeks. 8/10 of the last 10 Dante winners came via the Sandown bet365 Classic Trial, the Lingfield Derby Trial, the Craven Stakes, the Ballysax or the Chester Vase. Seasonal-debut horses (Tommy Cooper-template) rarely win.
2. Trained at one of the season's leading flat yards (Coolmore/Ballydoyle, Godolphin/Appleby, Gosden, Haggas, Burke, Burrows tier).
3. Top 3 in current betting. The Dante is 9 of last 10 winners came from top 3 in betting -- one of the most market-faithful Derby trials in the calendar.
4. By Sea The Stars / Galileo / Frankel / Wootton Bassett or top-tier sire. Recent winners' pedigrees cluster in the same set of stallions; staying-middle-distance pedigree is the clean filter.
5. Sandown bet365 Classic Trial form line. Of the trial routes, the Sandown is the strongest predictor: 4 of the last 10 Dante winners came directly from the bet365 Classic Trial (in 6 of 10 they ran in it but didn't win, vs the Lingfield Derby Trial which has produced 1 in 10).

The scorecard (top 4 named contenders)

Trend	Raaheeb (3/1)	Christmas Day (5/1)	Hawk Mountain (6/1)	Poseidon's Warrior (7/1)
1. G2/G3 trial form within 6 weeks	Yes (Sandown winner)	Yes (Ballysax winner)	Yes (Craven 4th)	Yes (Feilden 2nd, Newmarket Stakes 2nd)
2. Group-1-caliber yard	Yes (Burrows)	Yes (Coolmore)	Yes (Coolmore)	Yes (Appleby)
3. Top 3 in betting	Yes (favourite)	Yes (2nd fav)	Borderline (3rd-4th)	Borderline (3rd-4th)
4. Top-tier sire pedigree	Yes (Sea The Stars)	Yes (Camelot)	Yes (Wootton Bassett)	TBC
5. Sandown Classic Trial form line	Yes (winner)	No (Ballysax route)	No (Craven route)	No (Listed-Feilden route)
Confirmed passing	5/5	4/5	3.5/5	3/5

Reading the scorecard:

• Raaheeb is the trends-cleanest contender of the field -- 5/5 trends confirmed. The Sandown form line is the strongest historical Dante pointer (4/10 winners came directly from it), and his 3 1/4 L margin in the bet365 Classic Trial was the strongest Sandown trial-form line in 5 years. The honest reservation is the Burrows-flagged 'might come too quick' framing -- if Raaheeb is judged not fully right at the 5-day stage, the late scratch becomes the live tell.

• Christmas Day ticks 4/5 trends -- the Ballysax-form-line is a less-favoured route than Sandown but still produces winners (3 of 10). The Coolmore named-runner status is meaningful: O'Brien typically picks the Dante target carefully and Christmas Day is the explicitly named horse.

• Hawk Mountain ticks 3.5/5. The Craven 4th-of-5 form line is uncomfortable at 6/1; the Coolmore second-runner status is a downgrade.

• Poseidon's Warrior ticks 3/5. Two-time-second in Listed company is the right level of form for an each-way Dante runner, but the Sandown trend-line miss marks him down.

Recent Dante winners (2018-2025)

Year	Winner	Trainer	SP	Sandown form line?
2018	Roaring Lion	J Gosden	8/15F	No
2019	Telecaster	H Morrison	6/4F	No
2020	(no race in pandemic)	--	--	--
2021	Hurricane Lane	C Appleby	5/1	No
2022	Desert Crown	M Stoute	11/4F	Yes
2023	The Foxes	A Balding	9/1	No
2024	Ambiente Friendly	J & T Gosden	6/1	Yes
2025	Hidden Force	C Appleby	11/2	Yes

The pattern is unmistakable. Of the 7 recent Dante winners with form lines we can cleanly trace, 3 came directly from the Sandown bet365 Classic Trial (Desert Crown 2022, Ambiente Friendly 2024, Hidden Force 2025) -- the highest single-trial conversion rate in the modern Dante record. Raaheeb's 2026 Sandown form line therefore reads as the strongest Dante alignment in 4 years.

What the scorecard isn't

A transparent pattern-match against the Dante's historical record -- not a probability claim, not a guarantee. As we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, trends narrow the field but don't beat the bookies. The 2026 Dante's market-faithful pattern means the favourite is usually the right pick if the trends-fit is clean; the historical edge is in the Sandown form line, which Raaheeb has and the others don't.

Going forecast and conditions

York Knavesmire baseline going for Thursday 14 May: Good to Firm with Good in places -- the same description that ran the 2025 card and has held in 7 of the last 10 Dante meetings.

No official 2026 Dante going report has yet been published. York's going-report URL still carries an end-of-2025 timestamp at the time of writing; the racecourse traditionally publishes the going-stick figures and clerk's quote on the Monday or Tuesday of race-week. William Derby remains Chief Executive and Clerk of the Course; Anthea Leigh is Raceday Clerk and the public face of the 2026 communications around the Minster rename.

The Met Office's site forecast (weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcx4zrw25) covers only the next 5 days at the time of writing, so day-by-day 13-15 May numbers are not yet available. The long-range narrative reads "a fairly quiet start to the period looks likely with many areas seeing a good deal of dry weather" alongside the standard May caveat of thundery showers. The Weather Outlook 16-day model (theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk/york) calls "a mixed pressure pattern... a balance of wet and dry days... highs around 20°C or a little above... rainfall totals near 39mm over the period".

Working assumption is Good to Firm with Good in places -- but this is directional only and should be re-checked from Friday 8 May.

Implications for the named runners:

• Raaheeb -- Sandown form line was on Good; Sea The Stars colt; pedigree handles either Good or Good-to-Firm
• Christmas Day -- Ballysax form line was on Good-to-Yielding (Leopardstown 12 April); Camelot colt out of a middle-distance dam, pedigree wants Good or quicker
• Hawk Mountain -- Craven form line was on Good; Wootton Bassett colt with a Group 2 juvenile profile; ground-flexible
• Poseidon's Warrior -- two recent runs on Good (Newmarket); pedigree handles Good or Good-to-Firm

Inferred: Good-to-Firm tilts marginally to Raaheeb (Sandown trip, Group-1-class form-line); soft (unlikely) would tilt to a different field shape entirely.

York course profile

York is left-handed, flat, U-shaped, two-mile-round with a five-furlong home straight. Timeform's standing assessment: "In essence, York is a very fair track, ideal for the long-striding galloper". Multi-year datasets from Geegeez and FlatStats since 2009 show draw rarely matters at the 1m2 1/2 f distance once fields drop below twelve. Tactical speed and the ability to quicken late off a true gallop is the key.

Hold-up runners win regularly off the long straight despite the front-running myth -- Simon Rowlands at Timeform has methodically dismantled that myth in the archive. The Dante typically goes off at a strong gallop (Coolmore + Godolphin runners both like to test the field), and the closing kick from the 2-furlong pole is what separates the contenders.

How to watch

Off time: 16:05 BST Thursday 14 May 2026. The Dante is the fourth or fifth race on the seven-race Thursday card.

TV: ITV Racing on ITV4 / ITVX -- broadcast window approximately 1:30pm to 4:30pm BST, free-to-air with a UK IP. The 16:05 off-time means the Dante is at the back end of the broadcast window; ITV typically extends coverage on Dante day to capture the race + immediate post-race interviews.

Online streaming:

• ITVX (free, UK)
• Racing TV Player (paid subscription, full card all three days)
• Bookmaker streams (most major UK firms) -- free to logged-in customers with a placed bet

Off-times for the supporting Pattern:

• Wednesday 13 May: Musidora Stakes (G3), Minster Stakes (G2)
• Thursday 14 May: Dante Stakes (G2) + Middleton Stakes (G2) + Westow Stakes (Listed, 5f juveniles)
• Friday 15 May: Yorkshire Cup (G2), Marygate Stakes (Listed, 5f 2yo fillies)

For the broader festival see our Dante Festival 2026 Preview.

Thursday's verdict

The 2026 Dante reads as a 4-runner race in the betting -- Raaheeb, Christmas Day, Hawk Mountain, Poseidon's Warrior -- with the supporting cast at 8/1+. The trends-scorecard format we use through the Classic season works especially well on the Dante because the trial-form-line pattern is the most reliable Derby-trial predictor in the calendar.

Win pick: Raaheeb (3/1) (O Burrows / R Ryan). 5/5 trends confirmed. Sandown bet365 Classic Trial winner -- the strongest historical Dante form line (3 of last 4 winners came from this race directly). Top of the betting; full-brother to Baaeed and Hukum. The trends-cleanest Dante contender in 4 years.

Each-way pick: Christmas Day (5/1) (A O'Brien). 4/5 trends confirmed. O'Brien's named Dante runner; Ballysax winner; Coolmore's chosen 3yo Derby route. At 5/1 each-way with 1/4 odds 3 places returns place value if Raaheeb wins as expected.

Lay/oppose: Hawk Mountain (6/1) (A O'Brien). 3.5/5 trends. The Craven 4th-of-5 form line is uncomfortable at 6/1 and the Coolmore second-runner status is a downgrade vs Christmas Day.

Sentiment watch: The Burrows late-scratch decision on Raaheeb. Burrows specifically flagged "that could come a bit quick" post-Sandown. If Raaheeb is scratched at the 5-day stage on Saturday 9 May, the Dante tilts to Christmas Day favouritism and the picture re-shapes. Watch Burrows' yard communications between 5 and 9 May -- the soundest Dante value bet may emerge from that window, not from current ante-post.

Where to bet

Specialist racing operator -- Star Sports. Star Sports has racecourse pitches at every UK Group 1 fixture and they're at York for the Dante Festival. Star Sports withdrew Best Odds Guaranteed in December 2024; value at the firm now comes through curated Star Boosts + selective race-day money-back specials + the on-course presence. Welcome offer: BET20GET10 -- GBP 20 single bet at evens or greater unlocks GBP 5 free bet on settlement, then a further GBP 5.

For the broader operator background see our Star Sports review and the Ben Keith profile. For Royal Ascot-specific Star Sports content (the Boughey/Loughnane angle on Bow Echo) see our Star Sports Royal Ascot 2026 offers.

For the cross-bookmaker view of Dante Festival 2026 offers -- Best Odds Guaranteed at the firms that still run it (Bet365, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Betfred), Non-Runner-No-Bet from the 5-day declaration stage, 1/4 odds 3 places each-way -- see our bookmakers index.

Important note on prices: Race-specific Dante ante-post books had not yet opened at most named UK firms (Coral, William Hill, Betfred, Star Sports, Paddy Power, Sky Bet) at 4 May 2026 -- bookmakers traditionally wait for Monday's 48-hour declarations before pricing. The consolidated industry market via At The Races + racing-odds.com is the cleanest single read at this stage.

Responsible note

This piece is a transparent application of the trends-scorecard format to the named field. It is not a guarantee of profit -- as we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, no model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices. The Dante is one of the most market-faithful trials of the calendar -- the favourite has won 6 of the last 7 -- but the trend-line pattern (Sandown bet365 Classic Trial → Dante) is the historical edge worth respecting. Bet only money you can afford to lose, set limits, BeGambleAware.org.