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Dante Stakes 2026 Tips: Christmas Day 9/4F in 8-Runner Race

Thursday 14 May 2026 at York, 16:05 BST. The Dante Stakes (G2, 1m2½f, 3yo c/g) — the most important Derby trial in Europe. Christmas Day (A O'Brien / Moore, 9/4F) heads the 8-runner field; Morshdi (Haggas / Marquand, 5/2) the each-way pick; Item (Balding, 11/2, unbeaten Frankel son) the dark horse. ITV1 + ITVX live.

16 min readUpdated 2026-06-17
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James Maxwell

Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-06-17

Thursday 14 May 2026, 16:05 BST. York Racecourse. Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes, Group 2, 1m2½f, 3yo c/g, GBP 180,000 guaranteed (winner GBP 102,078).

🏁 RESULT (14 May 2026): Item (Andrew Balding / Colin Keane, 11/2) won — beating Action (4/1) by 2¾L and Christmas Day (11/4F) by a further 1¾L. Balding's second Dante in four years (after The Foxes 2023); Item is now 5/1-6/1 Derby joint-favourite. Full race report: Dante Stakes 2026 Result.

Race-day update (Thu 14 May, race in ~15.5 hrs). Final field 8 runners, market settled overnight. Christmas Day (A O'Brien / Ryan Moore, draw 6) is now 9/4 outright favourite -- the joint-fav status with Morshdi has resolved in his favour on overnight money. Morshdi (W Haggas / Tom Marquand, draw 3) holds at 5/2 as the each-way nominee with the Haggas-Lingfield-double angle. Item (A Balding / Colin Keane, draw 1) firms to 11/2 -- the unbeaten Juddmonte-bred Frankel son. Al Zanati (C Appleby / Billy Loughnane, draw 4) at 13/2 the Wise Prince-pricing companion. The rest: Wise Prince 10/1, Action 12/1, King's Trail 14/1, Guildmaster 25/1. Going Good to Good to Firm [confirmed by York 14 May; Day 1 ran on Good]. Off-time 16:05 BST Thursday, live on ITV Racing.

Race-day read. Christmas Day's overnight firming to 9/4 reflects the market's confidence in AOB's chosen Dante target -- now standalone favourite after the joint-fav status broke. Morshdi's 5/2 sits as the each-way value if the Haggas-Marquand Lingfield double-shot pattern repeats. Item's 11/2 is the dark-horse trends-cleanest 5/5 profile pick -- unbeaten, ran within 31 days, top yard, not the favourite, top-tier sire pedigree. Day 1's Minster result (8/1 winner, all favourites flopped) is a cautionary tale about over-confident favourite-backers at the meeting -- though the Musidora was won as expected by the 5/4F.

The 2026 Dante Stakes is the single most important Derby trial in Europe at the time it runs. With the Lingfield Derby Trial (Sat 9 May) and the Chester Vase (Wed 6 May) feeding form lines into the Dante itself, Thursday 14 May is the last meaningful pre-Epsom test of the colts who'll head to Epsom on Saturday 6 June.

The 2026 race is shaped by 51 entries on York's official list at 31 March, with Aidan O'Brien holding 16 of them -- by far the heaviest single-yard block.

The market leaders (consolidated industry market via At The Races + racing-odds.com):

  • Raaheeb (3/1) -- Owen Burrows / Rossa Ryan, Sea The Stars colt, full-brother to Baaeed and Hukum. Won the Sandown bet365 Classic Trial on 24 April by 3 1/4 L from Charlie Appleby's Al Zanati. Burrows: "He's in the Dante, but that could come a bit quick. We'll see how he comes out of this before we decide when we run again" [RTÉ 24/4/26].
  • Christmas Day (5/1) -- Aidan O'Brien, Camelot colt, won the G3 Ballysax at Leopardstown on 12 April by 1/2 L from stablemate Endorsement at 11/1. O'Brien: "Christmas Day might go to the Dante, so we'll see what he'll do then... we always liked him and we think that [York] will work well for him" [Irish Field 20/4/26].
  • Hawk Mountain (6/1) -- Aidan O'Brien, Wootton Bassett colt, fourth-of-five at 2/1 in the 16 April Craven Stakes behind Gosden's Oxagon. O'Brien: trained for Epsom or France, with a Dante run as the trial.
  • Poseidon's Warrior (7/1) -- Charlie Appleby / William Buick, beaten 1L in the Listed Feilden on 15 April and 2L in the Listed JCB Newmarket Stakes on 1 May. The Appleby Dante candidate.
  • Maho Bay (8/1) -- Charlie Appleby, easy 11/10 Craven-meeting novice winner. Appleby noted "he might be a bit more of a French Derby horse" but the Dante remains live.

The Coolmore-Godolphin chess match is the editorial centrepiece. O'Brien has named Christmas Day for the Dante; Pierre Bonnard goes to the Leopardstown Derby Trial; Benvenuto Cellini went to the Chester Vase; Italy and Constitution River went to the Dee Stakes. The Dante runner is Christmas Day; the Derby favourite is elsewhere.

This piece covers the named field, Dante trends and 2025 form lines, the going forecast for York, and the verdict and where-to-bet.

For the broader festival see our Dante Festival 2026 Preview.

The probable field at the entries-and-probables stage

51 entries stood on York's official list at 31 March 2026. A typical 8-11 will run at the 5-day declarations stage on Saturday 9 May; final 48-hour declarations Tuesday 12 May.

#HorseTrainerJockey expectedIndustry best (2 May)
1Raaheeb (Sea The Stars)O BurrowsRossa Ryan3/1
2Christmas Day (Camelot)A O'Brien(Coolmore senior)5/1
3Hawk Mountain (Wootton Bassett)A O'Brien(Coolmore senior)6/1
4Poseidon's Warrior (TBC)C ApplebyW Buick7/1
5Maho Bay (TBC)C ApplebyW Buick8/1
6Constitution River (Wootton Bassett)A O'Brien (Dee likely)(Coolmore 2nd)10/1
7Item (TBC)A BaldingTBC10/1
8ActionTBCTBC12/1
9Saxon StreetR BeckettTBC12/1
10King's Trail (Sea The Stars)C ApplebyJ Doyle12/1
11Wise PrinceJ & T GosdenTBC14/1
12Benvenuto Cellini (Frankel)A O'Brien (Chester Vase route)R Moore20/1

[Source: At The Races + racing-odds.com consolidated industry market 2 May 2026; York Racecourse 31 March entries press release; Coolmore stable tour 2026; Burrows yard quotes 24 April; Charlie Appleby press communications.]

The market leader -- Raaheeb (3/1)

Owen Burrows's 3yo Sea The Stars colt -- full-brother to Baaeed and Hukum, the Shadwell-bred star miler/middle-distance horses of the early 2020s. Won the Sandown bet365 Classic Trial on 24 April by 3 1/4 L from Charlie Appleby's Al Zanati under Rossa Ryan, with John & Thady Gosden's Wise Prince a further 4 1/4 L back in third.

Burrows's reaction (composite from race-day press) -- on the trip [Racing Post]: "He'll definitely stay and Rossa thought he quickened up again at the finish and hit the line strong. I would have no qualms going another couple of furlongs." On the Dante target [RTÉ]: "He's in the Dante, but that could come a bit quick. We'll see how he comes out of this before we decide when we run again." A late absentee remains possible if the Dante is judged too soon.

Trends fit: sound the Sandown-Classic-Trial-form-line trend (4/10 of the last 10 Dante winners came via Sandown's bet365 Classic Trial); top of the betting; right yard for an emerging Group 1 horse.

The named Coolmore Dante runner -- Christmas Day (5/1)

The only Coolmore colt O'Brien has explicitly named for the Dante. Camelot colt who won the G3 Ballysax at Leopardstown on 12 April 2026 -- ridden by Wayne Lordan at 11/1, beating stablemate Endorsement by half a length [TDN 12/4/26]. Hot favourite Pierre Bonnard finished only 7th.

Crucially, O'Brien's press morning on 28 April flagged a clear team split: "He [Benvenuto Cellini] was going to Epsom for the Blue Riband Trial, but it's been put back a week now so we might go for the Chester Vase on the way to Epsom" [Racing Post 28/4/26]. The pattern reads as Benvenuto Cellini → Chester Vase, Christmas Day → Dante, Pierre Bonnard → Leopardstown Derby Trial, with Italy and Constitution River pointed at the Dee.

O'Brien on Christmas Day specifically [Sky Sports / TDN post-Ballysax]: "Christmas Day was always a very legitimate horse. We were going to France to the Group 1 with him last year that Pierre Bonnard won and he got a temperature and he had to stop. I'd say he's probably stepped up from the Ballysax."

The Coolmore second runner -- Hawk Mountain (6/1)

Wootton Bassett colt, high-class juvenile in 2025, came back at age 3 with a tame 4th-of-5 at 2/1 in the 16 April Craven Stakes behind Gosden's Oxagon. O'Brien on Hawk Mountain: "Hawk Mountain will be trained for Epsom or France. If some of the other horses go to Epsom he'd be a possible to go to France as he'd be very comfortable at a mile and a quarter. He'll run in a trial first" [Racing Post].

Trends fit: Coolmore-trained, top-3-in-betting border, but the Craven flop is a real concern. At 6/1 the price expresses the form-line uncertainty.

The Appleby pair -- Poseidon's Warrior (7/1) and Maho Bay (8/1)

Poseidon's Warrior has hit the crossbar twice in three weeks: 2nd to William Haggas's Morshdi in the Listed Feilden on 15 April (1L), then bumped and beaten 2L by Charlie Johnston's 16/1 outsider Ancient Egypt in the Listed JCB Newmarket Stakes on 1 May. The first-time hood didn't help.

Maho Bay is the Appleby second-string -- easy 11/10 Craven-meeting novice winner over O'Brien's Amadeus Mozart. Appleby noted "he might be a bit more of a French Derby horse" but the Dante remains live.

The supporting cast

  • Wise Prince (Gosden) -- third in the bet365 Sandown
  • Item (Balding) -- Group 1 Futurity 4th
  • Saxon Street (Beckett) -- progressive but unproven at G2 level
  • King's Trail (Appleby) -- Sea The Stars colt; entered for both 2000 Guineas and Dante; route may pivot

Confirmed non-runners / reroutes

HorseReasonSource
Pierre Bonnard (A O'Brien)Leopardstown Derby Trial route, NOT DanteRacing Post 28 April
Benvenuto Cellini (A O'Brien)Chester Vase route on Wed 6 MayRacing Post 20 April; TDN 20 April
Italy / Constitution River (A O'Brien)Dee Stakes route on Wed 6 MayO'Brien press morning 20 April

Going forecast and conditions

York Knavesmire baseline going for Thursday 14 May: Good to Firm with Good in places -- the same description that ran the 2025 card and has held in 7 of the last 10 Dante meetings.

No official 2026 Dante going report has yet been published. York's going-report URL still carries an end-of-2025 timestamp at the time of writing; the racecourse traditionally publishes the going-stick figures and clerk's quote on the Monday or Tuesday of race-week. William Derby remains Chief Executive and Clerk of the Course; Anthea Leigh is Raceday Clerk and the public face of the 2026 communications around the Minster rename.

The Met Office's site forecast (weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcx4zrw25) covers only the next 5 days at the time of writing, so day-by-day 13-15 May numbers are not yet available. The long-range narrative reads "a fairly quiet start to the period looks likely with many areas seeing a good deal of dry weather" alongside the standard May caveat of thundery showers. The Weather Outlook 16-day model (theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk/york) calls "a mixed pressure pattern... a balance of wet and dry days... highs around 20°C or a little above... rainfall totals near 39mm over the period".

Working assumption is Good to Firm with Good in places -- but this is directional only and should be re-checked from Friday 8 May.

Implications for the named runners:

  • Raaheeb -- Sandown form line was on Good; Sea The Stars colt; pedigree handles either Good or Good-to-Firm
  • Christmas Day -- Ballysax form line was on Good-to-Yielding (Leopardstown 12 April); Camelot colt out of a middle-distance dam, pedigree wants Good or quicker
  • Hawk Mountain -- Craven form line was on Good; Wootton Bassett colt with a Group 2 juvenile profile; ground-flexible
  • Poseidon's Warrior -- two recent runs on Good (Newmarket); pedigree handles Good or Good-to-Firm

Inferred: Good-to-Firm tilts marginally to Raaheeb (Sandown trip, Group-1-class form-line); soft (unlikely) would tilt to a different field shape entirely.

York course profile

York is left-handed, flat, U-shaped, two-mile-round with a five-furlong home straight. Timeform's standing assessment: "In essence, York is a very fair track, ideal for the long-striding galloper". Multi-year datasets from Geegeez and FlatStats since 2009 show draw rarely matters at the 1m2 1/2 f distance once fields drop below twelve. Tactical speed and the ability to quicken late off a true gallop is the key.

Hold-up runners win regularly off the long straight despite the front-running myth -- Simon Rowlands at Timeform has methodically dismantled that myth in the archive. The Dante typically goes off at a strong gallop (Coolmore + Godolphin runners both like to test the field), and the closing kick from the 2-furlong pole is what separates the contenders.

How to watch

Off time: 16:05 BST Thursday 14 May 2026. The Dante is the fourth or fifth race on the seven-race Thursday card.

TV: ITV Racing on ITV4 / ITVX -- broadcast window approximately 1:30pm to 4:30pm BST, free-to-air with a UK IP. The 16:05 off-time means the Dante is at the back end of the broadcast window; ITV typically extends coverage on Dante day to capture the race + immediate post-race interviews.

Online streaming:

  • ITVX (free, UK)
  • Racing TV Player (paid subscription, full card all three days)
  • Bookmaker streams (most major UK firms) -- free to logged-in customers with a placed bet

Off-times for the supporting Pattern:

  • Wednesday 13 May: Musidora Stakes (G3), Minster Stakes (G2)
  • Thursday 14 May: Dante Stakes (G2) + Middleton Stakes (G2) + Westow Stakes (Listed, 5f juveniles)
  • Friday 15 May: Yorkshire Cup (G2), Marygate Stakes (Listed, 5f 2yo fillies)

For the broader festival see our Dante Festival 2026 Preview.

Thursday's verdict

The 2026 Dante is an 8-runner race after Raaheeb's late withdrawal -- the Burrows-flagged "might come a bit quick" concern played out and the yard goes direct to Royal Ascot instead. With the Sandown form-line carrier out, the trends-cleanest profile becomes Christmas Day's Ballysax form line.

Win pick: Christmas Day (A O'Brien / Ryan Moore). 4/5 trends confirmed -- the new trends-cleanest profile in the field. G3 Ballysax winner on 12 April; Camelot (sire) over a top-tier Coolmore broodmare line; AOB now SINGLE-handed (was 4-handed at the 5-day stage) -- the strongest type of stable-confidence editorial. Ryan Moore booked.

Each-way pick: Morshdi (W Haggas / Tom Marquand). 3.5/5 trends + the Haggas-Marquand Lingfield-double angle. The yard sent Maltese Cross to win the Lingfield Derby Trial 2026 on Saturday 9 May; Morshdi the Fielden winner is the same yard's Dante shot. The double-shot read is the trends-aligned each-way bet at the expected 7/2 mark.

Morshdi each-way at 7/2

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Sleeper outsider: Item (Andrew Balding). Unbeaten Juddmonte-bred has been "persuaded to run" per Juddmonte stable communications. The unbeaten record + the Balding G2 strike rate + the explicit-Juddmonte-route editorial is the strongest type of dark-horse credential. Watch his board price -- expect a market move closer to the off.

Sleeper outsider 2: Guildmaster (J & T Gosden / James Doyle). The Gosden 2-handed read -- the yard runs both Guildmaster and Wise Prince after Saxon Street (their Blue Riband Trial winner) stayed at home. James Doyle gets the senior-pilot pick on Guildmaster, which is the yard-signal indicator.

Sentiment watch: The Aidan O'Brien yard signal. AOB went from 4-handed at the 5-day stage (Christmas Day + Action + Italy + Amadeus Mozart) to 2-handed at 48-hour (Christmas Day + Action). The reduction is meaningful -- Italy + Amadeus Mozart were the rerouted pair -- and confirms Christmas Day as the chosen Dante target. Christmas Day's price should reflect this at the off; expect his board number to shorten further on race-day money. Action (Wayne Lordan from draw 7) is the Coolmore stablemate -- not the bullet, but a respected outside-pair runner.

Where to bet

Specialist racing operator -- Star Sports. Star Sports has racecourse pitches at every UK Group 1 fixture and they're at York for the Dante Festival. Star Sports withdrew Best Odds Guaranteed in December 2024; value at the firm now comes through curated Star Boosts + selective race-day money-back specials + the on-course presence. Welcome offer: BET20GET10 -- GBP 20 single bet at evens or greater unlocks GBP 5 free bet on settlement, then a further GBP 5.

For the broader operator background see our Star Sports review and the Ben Keith profile. For Royal Ascot-specific Star Sports content (the Boughey/Loughnane angle on Bow Echo) see our Star Sports Royal Ascot 2026 offers.

For the cross-bookmaker view of Dante Festival 2026 offers -- Best Odds Guaranteed at the firms that still run it (Bet365, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Betfred), Non-Runner-No-Bet from the 5-day declaration stage, 1/4 odds 3 places each-way -- see our bookmakers index.

Important note on prices: Race-specific Dante ante-post books had not yet opened at most named UK firms (Coral, William Hill, Betfred, Star Sports, Paddy Power, Sky Bet) at 4 May 2026 -- bookmakers traditionally wait for Monday's 48-hour declarations before pricing. The consolidated industry market via At The Races + racing-odds.com is the cleanest single read at this stage.

Responsible note

This piece is a transparent application of the trends-scorecard format to the named field. It is not a guarantee of profit -- as we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, no model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices. The Dante is one of the most market-faithful trials of the calendar -- the favourite has won 6 of the last 7 -- but with the Sandown form-line carrier (Raaheeb) out of the 2026 race, the historical-trend angle this year favours the Ballysax-route shorthand (Christmas Day) and the Lingfield-double angle (Morshdi). Bet only money you can afford to lose, set limits, BeGambleAware.org.

Sources & verification

  • York Racecourse 5-day entries press release (31 March 2026)
  • Racing Post 48-hour declarations Dante Stakes (Wed 13 May 2026)
  • ITV Racing schedule — Dante Day live broadcast confirmation
  • RTÉ 24 April 2026 — Owen Burrows quote on Raaheeb post-Sandown
  • Irish Field 20 April 2026 — Aidan O'Brien quote on Christmas Day Dante target
  • Lingfield Derby Trial 2026 result — Maltese Cross / Haggas / Marquand double-shot context
  • Juddmonte stable communications — Item "persuaded to run" route confirmation
  • Coolmore stable tour 2026 — Aidan O'Brien field-narrowing single-handed read
  • Wikipedia Dante Stakes article + OLBG long-term archive (2006-2024 Dante-Derby correlation)
  • At The Races + racing-odds.com consolidated industry market

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