Dante Stakes 2026 Tips: Christmas Day 9/4F in 8-Runner Race

The probable field at the entries-and-probables stage

51 entries stood on York's official list at 31 March 2026. A typical 8-11 will run at the 5-day declarations stage on Saturday 9 May; final 48-hour declarations Tuesday 12 May.

#	Horse	Trainer	Jockey expected	Industry best (2 May)
1	Raaheeb (Sea The Stars)	O Burrows	Rossa Ryan	3/1
2	Christmas Day (Camelot)	A O'Brien	(Coolmore senior)	5/1
3	Hawk Mountain (Wootton Bassett)	A O'Brien	(Coolmore senior)	6/1
4	Poseidon's Warrior (TBC)	C Appleby	W Buick	7/1
5	Maho Bay (TBC)	C Appleby	W Buick	8/1
6	Constitution River (Wootton Bassett)	A O'Brien (Dee likely)	(Coolmore 2nd)	10/1
7	Item (TBC)	A Balding	TBC	10/1
8	Action	TBC	TBC	12/1
9	Saxon Street	R Beckett	TBC	12/1
10	King's Trail (Sea The Stars)	C Appleby	J Doyle	12/1
11	Wise Prince	J & T Gosden	TBC	14/1
12	Benvenuto Cellini (Frankel)	A O'Brien (Chester Vase route)	R Moore	20/1

[Source: At The Races + racing-odds.com consolidated industry market 2 May 2026; York Racecourse 31 March entries press release; Coolmore stable tour 2026; Burrows yard quotes 24 April; Charlie Appleby press communications.]

The market leader -- Raaheeb (3/1)

Owen Burrows's 3yo Sea The Stars colt -- full-brother to Baaeed and Hukum, the Shadwell-bred star miler/middle-distance horses of the early 2020s. Won the Sandown bet365 Classic Trial on 24 April by 3 1/4 L from Charlie Appleby's Al Zanati under Rossa Ryan, with John & Thady Gosden's Wise Prince a further 4 1/4 L back in third.

Burrows's reaction (composite from race-day press) -- on the trip [Racing Post]: "He'll definitely stay and Rossa thought he quickened up again at the finish and hit the line strong. I would have no qualms going another couple of furlongs." On the Dante target [RTÉ]: "He's in the Dante, but that could come a bit quick. We'll see how he comes out of this before we decide when we run again." A late absentee remains possible if the Dante is judged too soon.

Trends fit: sound the Sandown-Classic-Trial-form-line trend (4/10 of the last 10 Dante winners came via Sandown's bet365 Classic Trial); top of the betting; right yard for an emerging Group 1 horse.

The named Coolmore Dante runner -- Christmas Day (5/1)

The only Coolmore colt O'Brien has explicitly named for the Dante. Camelot colt who won the G3 Ballysax at Leopardstown on 12 April 2026 -- ridden by Wayne Lordan at 11/1, beating stablemate Endorsement by half a length [TDN 12/4/26]. Hot favourite Pierre Bonnard finished only 7th.

Crucially, O'Brien's press morning on 28 April flagged a clear team split: "He [Benvenuto Cellini] was going to Epsom for the Blue Riband Trial, but it's been put back a week now so we might go for the Chester Vase on the way to Epsom" [Racing Post 28/4/26]. The pattern reads as Benvenuto Cellini → Chester Vase, Christmas Day → Dante, Pierre Bonnard → Leopardstown Derby Trial, with Italy and Constitution River pointed at the Dee.

O'Brien on Christmas Day specifically [Sky Sports / TDN post-Ballysax]: "Christmas Day was always a very legitimate horse. We were going to France to the Group 1 with him last year that Pierre Bonnard won and he got a temperature and he had to stop. I'd say he's probably stepped up from the Ballysax."

The Coolmore second runner -- Hawk Mountain (6/1)

Wootton Bassett colt, high-class juvenile in 2025, came back at age 3 with a tame 4th-of-5 at 2/1 in the 16 April Craven Stakes behind Gosden's Oxagon. O'Brien on Hawk Mountain: "Hawk Mountain will be trained for Epsom or France. If some of the other horses go to Epsom he'd be a possible to go to France as he'd be very comfortable at a mile and a quarter. He'll run in a trial first" [Racing Post].

Trends fit: Coolmore-trained, top-3-in-betting border, but the Craven flop is a real concern. At 6/1 the price expresses the form-line uncertainty.

The Appleby pair -- Poseidon's Warrior (7/1) and Maho Bay (8/1)

Poseidon's Warrior has hit the crossbar twice in three weeks: 2nd to William Haggas's Morshdi in the Listed Feilden on 15 April (1L), then bumped and beaten 2L by Charlie Johnston's 16/1 outsider Ancient Egypt in the Listed JCB Newmarket Stakes on 1 May. The first-time hood didn't help.

Maho Bay is the Appleby second-string -- easy 11/10 Craven-meeting novice winner over O'Brien's Amadeus Mozart. Appleby noted "he might be a bit more of a French Derby horse" but the Dante remains live.

The supporting cast

• Wise Prince (Gosden) -- third in the bet365 Sandown
• Item (Balding) -- Group 1 Futurity 4th
• Saxon Street (Beckett) -- progressive but unproven at G2 level
• King's Trail (Appleby) -- Sea The Stars colt; entered for both 2000 Guineas and Dante; route may pivot

Confirmed non-runners / reroutes

Horse	Reason	Source
Pierre Bonnard (A O'Brien)	Leopardstown Derby Trial route, NOT Dante	Racing Post 28 April
Benvenuto Cellini (A O'Brien)	Chester Vase route on Wed 6 May	Racing Post 20 April; TDN 20 April
Italy / Constitution River (A O'Brien)	Dee Stakes route on Wed 6 May	O'Brien press morning 20 April

Trends scorecard for the 2026 Dante Stakes

The Dante Stakes is the most form-faithful Derby trial in the calendar. Five trends decide most renewals.

The five trends

1. Has G2/G3 trial form within 6 weeks. 8/10 of the last 10 Dante winners came via the Sandown bet365 Classic Trial, the Lingfield Derby Trial, the Craven Stakes, the Ballysax or the Chester Vase. Seasonal-debut horses (Tommy Cooper-template) rarely win.
2. Trained at one of the season's leading flat yards (Coolmore/Ballydoyle, Godolphin/Appleby, Gosden, Haggas, Burke, Burrows tier).
3. Top 3 in current betting. The Dante is 9 of last 10 winners came from top 3 in betting -- one of the most market-faithful Derby trials in the calendar.
4. By Sea The Stars / Galileo / Frankel / Wootton Bassett or top-tier sire. Recent winners' pedigrees cluster in the same set of stallions; staying-middle-distance pedigree is the clean filter.
5. Sandown bet365 Classic Trial form line. Of the trial routes, the Sandown is the strongest predictor: 4 of the last 10 Dante winners came directly from the bet365 Classic Trial (in 6 of 10 they ran in it but didn't win, vs the Lingfield Derby Trial which has produced 1 in 10).

The scorecard (top 4 of the 8-runner declared field)

Note. Raaheeb (the original ante-post 3/1 favourite and the Sandown form-line carrier) did NOT declare at the 48-hour stage. The Burrows-flagged "might come a bit quick" framing held; the yard is going direct to Royal Ascot via the Sandown Brigadier Gerard route instead. The 5/5 Sandown-form-line pick is therefore out; the trends-cleanest profile becomes Christmas Day on the Ballysax line.

Also out at the 48-hour stage: Saxon Street (Gosden's Blue Riband Trial winner — stays at home); Maho Bay (Appleby — Lingfield Trial flop confirmed reroute); Hawk Mountain (O'Brien — trained for France instead); Italy + Amadeus Mozart (both O'Brien).

Trend	Christmas Day (heads)	Morshdi (each-way)	Item (unbeaten Frankel son)	Guildmaster (Gosden dark)
1. G2/G3 trial form within 6 weeks	Yes (Ballysax winner, 12 Apr)	Yes (Fielden winner)	Yes (unbeaten -- maiden/conditions form)	TBC (recent prep)
2. Group-1-caliber yard	Yes (A O'Brien)	Yes (Haggas)	Yes (Balding)	Yes (J & T Gosden)
3. Top 3 in betting	Yes (favourite)	Yes (joint-fav)	Yes (top 3)	TBC (mid-board)
4. Top-tier sire pedigree	Yes (Camelot)	Yes (Galileo-line)	Yes (Frankel)	Yes (Gosden's selected)
5. Sandown Classic Trial form line	No (Ballysax route)	No (Fielden / Lingfield route)	No (conditions-route)	No (Gosden's trial route)
Confirmed passing	4/5	3.5/5	3.5/5	3/5 (TBCs lean positive)

Reading the scorecard:

• Christmas Day is now the trends-cleanest profile in the 8-runner field at 4/5 trends confirmed. The Ballysax-form-line is a less-favoured route than the Sandown (3 of 10 vs 4 of 10), but with Raaheeb out of the race the Sandown line is unrepresented and Christmas Day's Ballysax win becomes the strongest trial form-line in the field. AOB is 2-handed (with Action as the stablemate) -- down from 4-handed at the 5-day stage, confirming Christmas Day is the chosen Dante target.

• Morshdi ticks 3.5/5 -- the Fielden winner from the William Haggas yard, ridden by Tom Marquand, arrives off the back of the Haggas-Marquand Lingfield Derby Trial win with Maltese Cross the previous Saturday. The double-shot read is the each-way angle. Pedigree by Galileo line delivers the stamina credential.

• Item ticks 3.5/5. Andrew Balding's unbeaten Juddmonte-bred Frankel son has been "persuaded to run" per Juddmonte stable communications -- the strongest type of route-confirmation editorial. Colin Keane booked. The lack of a Sandown form line is the only formal trend miss.

• Guildmaster ticks 3/5 with two informative TBCs. The Gosden 2-handed read (Guildmaster from draw 5 + Wise Prince from draw 2) is the dark-horse editorial after Saxon Street stayed at home. James Doyle is booked on Guildmaster -- the senior pilot for the Gosden yard's chosen Dante runner.

Recent Dante winners (2018-2025)

Year	Winner	Trainer	SP	Sandown form line?
2018	Roaring Lion	J Gosden	8/15F	No
2019	Telecaster	H Morrison	6/4F	No
2020	(no race in pandemic)	--	--	--
2021	Hurricane Lane	C Appleby	5/1	No
2022	Desert Crown	M Stoute	11/4F	Yes
2023	The Foxes	A Balding	9/1	No
2024	Ambiente Friendly	J & T Gosden	6/1	Yes
2025	Pride Of Arras	R Beckett	18/1	No (Newbury Listed prep)

The pattern is unmistakable. Of the 7 recent Dante winners with form lines we can cleanly trace, 2 came directly from the Sandown bet365 Classic Trial (Desert Crown 2022, Ambiente Friendly 2024) -- the strongest single-trial conversion path of recent years. Raaheeb's 2026 Sandown form line therefore aligns with that pattern, with Pride Of Arras (2025, 18/1 from a Newbury Listed prep) showing the longshot-Dante-winner alternative.

What the scorecard isn't

A transparent pattern-match against the Dante's historical record -- not a probability claim, not a guarantee. As we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, trends narrow the field but don't beat the bookies. The 2026 Dante's market-faithful pattern means the favourite is usually the right pick if the trends-fit is clean -- and with Raaheeb out, Christmas Day's 4/5 is the cleanest in the field. The historical Sandown form-line edge is unrepresented in 2026; the next-best trial pointer is the Ballysax, which Christmas Day has.

Going forecast and conditions

York Knavesmire baseline going for Thursday 14 May: Good to Firm with Good in places -- the same description that ran the 2025 card and has held in 7 of the last 10 Dante meetings.

No official 2026 Dante going report has yet been published. York's going-report URL still carries an end-of-2025 timestamp at the time of writing; the racecourse traditionally publishes the going-stick figures and clerk's quote on the Monday or Tuesday of race-week. William Derby remains Chief Executive and Clerk of the Course; Anthea Leigh is Raceday Clerk and the public face of the 2026 communications around the Minster rename.

The Met Office's site forecast (weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcx4zrw25) covers only the next 5 days at the time of writing, so day-by-day 13-15 May numbers are not yet available. The long-range narrative reads "a fairly quiet start to the period looks likely with many areas seeing a good deal of dry weather" alongside the standard May caveat of thundery showers. The Weather Outlook 16-day model (theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk/york) calls "a mixed pressure pattern... a balance of wet and dry days... highs around 20°C or a little above... rainfall totals near 39mm over the period".

Working assumption is Good to Firm with Good in places -- but this is directional only and should be re-checked from Friday 8 May.

Implications for the named runners:

• Raaheeb -- Sandown form line was on Good; Sea The Stars colt; pedigree handles either Good or Good-to-Firm
• Christmas Day -- Ballysax form line was on Good-to-Yielding (Leopardstown 12 April); Camelot colt out of a middle-distance dam, pedigree wants Good or quicker
• Hawk Mountain -- Craven form line was on Good; Wootton Bassett colt with a Group 2 juvenile profile; ground-flexible
• Poseidon's Warrior -- two recent runs on Good (Newmarket); pedigree handles Good or Good-to-Firm

Inferred: Good-to-Firm tilts marginally to Raaheeb (Sandown trip, Group-1-class form-line); soft (unlikely) would tilt to a different field shape entirely.

York course profile

York is left-handed, flat, U-shaped, two-mile-round with a five-furlong home straight. Timeform's standing assessment: "In essence, York is a very fair track, ideal for the long-striding galloper". Multi-year datasets from Geegeez and FlatStats since 2009 show draw rarely matters at the 1m2 1/2 f distance once fields drop below twelve. Tactical speed and the ability to quicken late off a true gallop is the key.

Hold-up runners win regularly off the long straight despite the front-running myth -- Simon Rowlands at Timeform has methodically dismantled that myth in the archive. The Dante typically goes off at a strong gallop (Coolmore + Godolphin runners both like to test the field), and the closing kick from the 2-furlong pole is what separates the contenders.

How to watch

Off time: 16:05 BST Thursday 14 May 2026. The Dante is the fourth or fifth race on the seven-race Thursday card.

TV: ITV Racing on ITV4 / ITVX -- broadcast window approximately 1:30pm to 4:30pm BST, free-to-air with a UK IP. The 16:05 off-time means the Dante is at the back end of the broadcast window; ITV typically extends coverage on Dante day to capture the race + immediate post-race interviews.

Online streaming:

• ITVX (free, UK)
• Racing TV Player (paid subscription, full card all three days)
• Bookmaker streams (most major UK firms) -- free to logged-in customers with a placed bet

Off-times for the supporting Pattern:

• Wednesday 13 May: Musidora Stakes (G3), Minster Stakes (G2)
• Thursday 14 May: Dante Stakes (G2) + Middleton Stakes (G2) + Westow Stakes (Listed, 5f juveniles)
• Friday 15 May: Yorkshire Cup (G2), Marygate Stakes (Listed, 5f 2yo fillies)

For the broader festival see our Dante Festival 2026 Preview.

Thursday's verdict

The 2026 Dante is an 8-runner race after Raaheeb's late withdrawal -- the Burrows-flagged "might come a bit quick" concern played out and the yard goes direct to Royal Ascot instead. With the Sandown form-line carrier out, the trends-cleanest profile becomes Christmas Day's Ballysax form line.

Win pick: Christmas Day (A O'Brien / Ryan Moore). 4/5 trends confirmed -- the new trends-cleanest profile in the field. G3 Ballysax winner on 12 April; Camelot (sire) over a top-tier Coolmore broodmare line; AOB now SINGLE-handed (was 4-handed at the 5-day stage) -- the strongest type of stable-confidence editorial. Ryan Moore booked.

Each-way pick: Morshdi (W Haggas / Tom Marquand). 3.5/5 trends + the Haggas-Marquand Lingfield-double angle. The yard sent Maltese Cross to win the Lingfield Derby Trial 2026 on Saturday 9 May; Morshdi the Fielden winner is the same yard's Dante shot. The double-shot read is the trends-aligned each-way bet at the expected 7/2 mark.

Sleeper outsider: Item (Andrew Balding). Unbeaten Juddmonte-bred has been "persuaded to run" per Juddmonte stable communications. The unbeaten record + the Balding G2 strike rate + the explicit-Juddmonte-route editorial is the strongest type of dark-horse credential. Watch his board price -- expect a market move closer to the off.

Sleeper outsider 2: Guildmaster (J & T Gosden / James Doyle). The Gosden 2-handed read -- the yard runs both Guildmaster and Wise Prince after Saxon Street (their Blue Riband Trial winner) stayed at home. James Doyle gets the senior-pilot pick on Guildmaster, which is the yard-signal indicator.

Sentiment watch: The Aidan O'Brien yard signal. AOB went from 4-handed at the 5-day stage (Christmas Day + Action + Italy + Amadeus Mozart) to 2-handed at 48-hour (Christmas Day + Action). The reduction is meaningful -- Italy + Amadeus Mozart were the rerouted pair -- and confirms Christmas Day as the chosen Dante target. Christmas Day's price should reflect this at the off; expect his board number to shorten further on race-day money. Action (Wayne Lordan from draw 7) is the Coolmore stablemate -- not the bullet, but a respected outside-pair runner.

Where to bet

Specialist racing operator -- Star Sports. Star Sports has racecourse pitches at every UK Group 1 fixture and they're at York for the Dante Festival. Star Sports withdrew Best Odds Guaranteed in December 2024; value at the firm now comes through curated Star Boosts + selective race-day money-back specials + the on-course presence. Welcome offer: BET40GET20 -- GBP 20 single bet at evens or greater unlocks GBP 5 free bet on settlement, then a further GBP 5.

For the broader operator background see our Star Sports review and the Ben Keith profile. For Royal Ascot-specific Star Sports content (the Boughey/Loughnane angle on Bow Echo) see our Star Sports Royal Ascot 2026 offers.

For the cross-bookmaker view of Dante Festival 2026 offers -- Best Odds Guaranteed at the firms that still run it (Bet365, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Betfred), Non-Runner-No-Bet from the 5-day declaration stage, 1/4 odds 3 places each-way -- see our bookmakers index.

Important note on prices: Race-specific Dante ante-post books had not yet opened at most named UK firms (Coral, William Hill, Betfred, Star Sports, Paddy Power, Sky Bet) at 4 May 2026 -- bookmakers traditionally wait for Monday's 48-hour declarations before pricing. The consolidated industry market via At The Races + racing-odds.com is the cleanest single read at this stage.

Responsible note

This piece is a transparent application of the trends-scorecard format to the named field. It is not a guarantee of profit -- as we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, no model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices. The Dante is one of the most market-faithful trials of the calendar -- the favourite has won 6 of the last 7 -- but with the Sandown form-line carrier (Raaheeb) out of the 2026 race, the historical-trend angle this year favours the Ballysax-route shorthand (Christmas Day) and the Lingfield-double angle (Morshdi). Bet only money you can afford to lose, set limits, BeGambleAware.org.

Sources & verification

• York Racecourse 5-day entries press release (31 March 2026)
• Racing Post 48-hour declarations Dante Stakes (Wed 13 May 2026)
• ITV Racing schedule — Dante Day live broadcast confirmation
• RTÉ 24 April 2026 — Owen Burrows quote on Raaheeb post-Sandown
• Irish Field 20 April 2026 — Aidan O'Brien quote on Christmas Day Dante target
• Lingfield Derby Trial 2026 result — Maltese Cross / Haggas / Marquand double-shot context
• Juddmonte stable communications — Item "persuaded to run" route confirmation
• Coolmore stable tour 2026 — Aidan O'Brien field-narrowing single-handed read
• Wikipedia Dante Stakes article + OLBG long-term archive (2006-2024 Dante-Derby correlation)
• At The Races + racing-odds.com consolidated industry market

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