Epsom Derby 2026 Tips: Benvenuto Cellini, the Coolmore Lead & Saturday's Verdict

The Coolmore Derby lead — Benvenuto Cellini

Aidan O'Brien at the Ballydoyle Chester press morning, 20 April 2026: "He was going to Epsom for the Blue Riband Trial, but it's been put back a week now so we might go for the Chester Vase on the way to Epsom... he's a lovely, slick-moving horse" [Racing Post; TDN].

That re-routing turned the Chester Vase (Wednesday 6 May) into the most important Derby trial in Europe for 2026. Benvenuto Cellini won the 2025 G2 KPMG Champions Juvenile at Leopardstown and finished 3rd in the G1 Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster behind The Strikin Viking. The 2025 form line reads as Group-1-class juvenile work; the 2026 read is determined by Wednesday's Chester Vase.

For our dedicated Chester Vase preview see Chester Vase 2026 preview — pre-race trends-scorecard had Benvenuto Cellini at 4/5 trends confirmed (the best in the field).

The Coolmore second-string and onwards

Pierre Bonnard (Frankel) -- the 2025 G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner, current 6/1 Derby favourite at one stage of the spring. Drifted to 10/1 after his Ballysax flop on 12 April (7th of 9 at 2/1). Aidan O'Brien's confirmed route: Leopardstown Derby Trial on Sunday 10 May. Pierre Bonnard's price reflects his 2026 form-line collapse; if he runs well at Leopardstown he's back into the picture, if he doesn't, he's a Derby long-shot.

Hawk Mountain (Wootton Bassett) -- the 2025 high-class juvenile. Disappointing 4th-of-5 at 2/1 in the 16 April Craven Stakes behind Gosden's Oxagon. O'Brien: "Hawk Mountain will be trained for Epsom or France. If some of the other horses go to Epsom he'd be a possible to go to France as he'd be very comfortable at a mile and a quarter. He'll run in a trial first" [Racing Post]. Dante or Lingfield Derby Trial route TBC.

Christmas Day (Camelot) -- O'Brien's named Dante runner. Won the G3 Ballysax at Leopardstown on 12 April by 1/2 L from Endorsement at 11/1. O'Brien: "Christmas Day might go to the Dante, so we'll see what he'll do then. He was always a very solid horse and the plan last year was to run in a Group One in France, but he got a temperature and couldn't go. We always liked him and we think that [York] will work well for him" [Irish Field 20/4/26]. Dante is the trial route.

For our dedicated Dante Stakes preview see Dante Stakes 2026 preview.

The non-Coolmore Derby field

The non-Coolmore Derby ladder reads (consolidated industry market via Oddschecker, 4 May 2026):

Horse	Trainer	Best Derby price	Trial route
Raaheeb (Sea The Stars)	O Burrows	12/1	Sandown Classic Trial winner; Burrows has him on Dante route, NOT Derby
Al Zanati (Cracksman)	C Appleby	16/1	Sandown Classic Trial 2nd; Lingfield Derby Trial route TBC
Maltese Cross (Sea The Stars)	W Haggas	20/1	Newbury maiden winner April; Lingfield Derby Trial 9 May
Wise Prince	Gosden	25/1	Sandown 3rd
Saxon Street	Beckett	33/1	Listed-class progressive
Item	Balding	33/1	G1 Futurity 4th
Pride Of Arras	Beckett (gelded after 2025)	50/1	2025 Derby 17th, gelded after, won Voltigeur — unlikely Derby return

The non-Coolmore Derby form-line carriers all converge on the Lingfield Derby Trial (9 May) as the final pre-Derby trial, with the Dante (14 May) the second wave. The 2026 Coolmore Derby trio (Benvenuto Cellini + Pierre Bonnard + Hawk Mountain or Christmas Day) will be the favourite at any sensible price unless one of the non-Coolmore trials produces a horse with G1 form on his page.

The Charlie Appleby gap

The 2026 Charlie Appleby Derby team is moderate by recent standards. Hidden Force won the 2025 Dante before Lambourn beat the lot at Epsom; Hidden Force took the 2025 Hardwicke at Royal Ascot rather than the Derby. The 2026 lead is Al Zanati (after Sandown 2nd) and possibly King's Trail (Sea The Stars colt) — neither at the Coolmore depth-of-bench level.

For 2026 Appleby Derby strategy see the Royal Ascot 2026 Tuesday Preview on the St James's Palace as the alternative Group 1 mile path.

Trends scorecard for the 2026 Derby

The Derby is one of the most market-faithful Classics on the British calendar — but the favourite has been beaten in 3 of the last 5 years (2021, 2023, 2025). Five trends that decide most renewals.

The five trends

1. Trained at Ballydoyle. Aidan O'Brien is 11 wins from 12 attempts since 2007 -- the most-dominant trainer-race combination in modern flat racing.
2. Sired by a top-tier middle-distance stallion (Galileo, Sea The Stars, Frankel, Australia, Sky Mesa, Camelot, Wootton Bassett). 8/10 of last 10 winners came from this stallion set.
3. Top 3 in current betting. 8 of last 10 winners came from top 3 in betting -- market-faithful but with the favourite-flop pattern (3 of last 5).
4. G2/G3 Derby trial form within 6 weeks. 9/10 of last 10 winners had a meaningful prep run -- Sandown bet365 Classic Trial, Lingfield Derby Trial, Chester Vase, Dante, Ballysax, or Leopardstown Derby Trial.
5. Drawn 7-14. The Derby's unique camber-and-undulation profile means stalls 7-14 source 9 of last 11 winners; stalls 1, 2, 11, 16, 20 historically barren.

The scorecard (top 4 named contenders at 4 May 2026)

Trend	Benvenuto Cellini (5/1)	Pierre Bonnard (10/1)	Hawk Mountain (8-10/1)	Christmas Day (10-12/1)
1. Ballydoyle	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
2. Top-tier sire	Yes (Frankel)	Yes (Frankel)	Yes (Wootton Bassett)	Yes (Camelot)
3. Top 3 in betting	Yes (favourite)	Borderline (3rd-4th)	Borderline (3rd-4th)	Borderline (4th-5th)
4. Trial form within 6 weeks	TBC (Chester Vase 6 May)	Yes (Ballysax 7th flop)	Yes (Craven 4th)	Yes (Ballysax winner)
5. Drawn 7-14	TBC (drawn at 5-day stage)	TBC	TBC	TBC
Confirmed at 4 May	3/5 (TBC favourable)	2.5/5 (Ballysax flop)	2.5/5 (Craven 4th)	3/5

Reading the scorecard:

The 2026 Derby scorecard is provisional until the Chester Vase result on Wednesday 6 May (Benvenuto Cellini's Trial 1) and the 5-day declarations on Friday 30 May (when stalls + final field crystallise). The current pre-Vase reading:

• Benvenuto Cellini -- the most-favoured trends-fit if the Vase is won well. Frankel sire, Coolmore, top-of-betting, named Coolmore Derby lead. 3/5 confirmed pre-Vase, expected 4/5+ post-Vase if all goes to plan.
• Christmas Day -- the trends-cleanest non-Benvenuto Cellini at 3/5. Ballysax form line is the strongest non-Sandown qualifying route in the field.
• Pierre Bonnard -- the Ballysax flop is a real form-line concern. 2.5/5 marks him down; the 10/1 price reflects this.
• Hawk Mountain -- the Craven 4th-of-5 at 2/1 is a real concern. 2.5/5 marks him down.

Recent winners

Year	Winner	Trainer	SP	Trial form
2018	Masar	C Appleby	16/1	Craven
2019	Anthony Van Dyck	A O'Brien	13/2	Lingfield Derby Trial
2020	Serpentine	A O'Brien	25/1	Curragh maiden
2021	Adayar	C Appleby	16/1	King Edward VII Stakes (Royal Ascot route, NOT Trial)
2022	Desert Crown	M Stoute	5/2F	Dante winner
2023	Auguste Rodin	A O'Brien	9/2	Ballysax
2024	City Of Troy	A O'Brien	11/8F	Dewhurst form-line tester
2025	Lambourn	A O'Brien	13/2	Chester Vase 2nd

The pattern is unmistakable. Aidan O'Brien has won 11/12 since 2007 (only Stoute's Desert Crown 2022 in that window). The trial-form-line varies (Sandown, Lingfield, Chester Vase, Ballysax, Dante) but Coolmore's named lead has won regardless of which trial they used.

What the scorecard isn't

A transparent pattern-match against the Derby's historical record -- not a probability claim, not a guarantee. As we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, trends narrow the field but don't beat the bookies. The Derby is market-faithful enough that the trends-cleanest pick is usually the right pre-race favourite -- but the 3-of-5-favourites-flop pattern in recent years means the each-way bet on the Coolmore second-string at 7/1-10/1 is the historically-supported value play, not the win-only bet on the favourite.

Going forecast and conditions

Epsom Downs baseline going for Saturday 6 June 2026: Good, with Good-to-Soft possible if late-spring rain materialises -- the same pattern as 2025 when Andrew Cooper (the long-serving clerk in his 30th Derby) called Friday's going "every indication we'll be on the slow side of good across the two days" after a record-dry spring was broken by 8mm of midweek rain.

The Cooper-clerk going philosophy [retrospective brief]:

• Watering is delivered through Cooper's irrigation system to maintain Good ground, not to soften
• The April fixture had been rearranged in 2025 after a burst irrigation system -- the system has since been overhauled
• 2025 going on Derby Day: Good (Good to Soft in places) after Tuesday 3.4mm and Thursday 7mm
• 2024 going on Derby Day: Good (City Of Troy comfortably handled)
• 2023 going on Derby Day: Good (Auguste Rodin won)

For 2026: Cooper retires sometime around 2026 per industry communications — TBC who his successor is. The going philosophy is expected to continue.

Implications for the named runners:

• Benvenuto Cellini -- Frankel sire; Coolmore-style middle-distance pedigree; pedigree wants Good or quicker. Watering-maintained Good is exactly the description Coolmore would have ordered.
• Pierre Bonnard -- Frankel sire; same ground preference; Ballysax form line was on Good-to-Yielding
• Hawk Mountain -- Wootton Bassett sire; ground-flexible
• Christmas Day -- Camelot sire; pedigree wants Good or quicker

Inferred 2026 reading: Good ground tilts to the Coolmore quartet equally; Soft (unlikely) would tilt to whichever trial-form-line carrier proved themselves on heavy in May.

Epsom course profile

The unique Epsom Derby course:

• 1m4f6y starting at the Mile Start gates, run on the round-course (not the straight)
• The track climbs uphill for the first 5 furlongs, then drops sharply downhill via Tattenham Corner, then runs the camber-affected home straight
• Stall 10 is the historically luckiest (11 winners since 1967); stalls 7-14 source 9 of last 11 winners
• Stalls 2, 11, 16, 20 had NEVER produced a winner before 2025 (Lambourn drew 10)
• The camber falls away from the grandstand rail -- horses on the inside have less ground-loss but face the camber tilt; horses wide on the rail get less of the camber but more ground-loss

Tactical notes:

• Hold-up tactics historically underperform -- the downhill drop into the straight punishes horses caught off the bridle
• Lambourn 2025 pressed the pace and won unchallenged; Delacroix was a hold-up runner and finished 9th
• A handy, balanced ride is the historical winning template

How to watch

Off time: 15:30 BST Saturday 6 June 2026. The Derby is the 6th race on the seven-race Saturday card.

TV: ITV Racing on ITV1 (the main channel — Derby Day gets the headline ITV slot). Broadcast window approximately 1:00pm to 5:00pm BST, free-to-air with a UK IP. Coverage covers the full Saturday card.

Online streaming:

• ITVX (free, UK)
• Racing TV Player (paid subscription, full card both days)
• Bookmaker streams (most major UK firms) — free to logged-in customers with a placed bet

Friday 5 June (Coronation Cup + Oaks): ITV1 / ITVX, broadcast window 1:30pm - 5:00pm.

For the complete TV schedule + race-by-race off-times see our Epsom Derby 2026 TV Guide.

For our broader Saturday day-by-day breakdown see the Epsom Derby 2026 Saturday Preview.

Saturday's verdict

The 2026 Derby reads as the most market-faithful Coolmore Derby of the modern era -- with one structural caveat. Aidan O'Brien is going for a fourth Derby in succession (Auguste Rodin 2023, City Of Troy 2024, Lambourn 2025), but the recent pattern has been the non-favoured Coolmore runner winning at value: Lambourn (13/2 in 2025), Auguste Rodin (9/2 in 2023). Only City Of Troy in 2024 (11/8F) was the trends-faithful Coolmore favourite.

Win pick: Benvenuto Cellini (A O'Brien). At ante-post 5/1 -- provisionally 3/5 trends pre-Vase, expected 4-5/5 post-Vase if all goes to plan. The named Coolmore lead via the Chester Vase route. Expected to compress from 5/1 ante-post to 5/2 - 7/2 race-day if the Vase is won well. Win-only is short value at 5/2; the each-way bet at 5/1 ante-post returns place-only value if the Coolmore stable jockey decision tilts away from him.

Each-way pick: Christmas Day (A O'Brien) at 10/12. 3/5 trends + the Coolmore named-Dante runner status. If Christmas Day wins or runs prominently in the Dante, his price compresses to 6/1-8/1 by Derby week. The historical pattern (Lambourn 2025, Auguste Rodin 2023) of the non-favoured Coolmore runner winning at value supports this each-way play.

Lay/oppose: Pierre Bonnard (A O'Brien) at 10/1. 2.5/5 trends + the Ballysax 7th-of-9 flop is a real form-line concern. The 4/1 → 10/1 drift this spring expressed it; avoid at any price under 14/1.

Sentiment watch: Ryan Moore's stable-jockey decision at the 5-day declaration stage on Friday 30 May. In 2025 Moore picked Delacroix (favourite, 9th) over Lambourn (winner). In 2024 Moore picked City Of Troy (favourite, won). In 2023 Moore picked Auguste Rodin (4/1, won). The 2024 win was the only Moore-on-favourite outcome in 3 years. Moore's choice is the strongest stable signal of confidence.

Where to bet

Specialist racing operator -- Star Sports. Star Sports has racecourse pitches at Epsom for both days of the Derby Festival. Star Sports withdrew Best Odds Guaranteed in December 2024; value at the firm now comes through curated Star Boosts + selective race-day money-back specials + the on-course presence. Welcome offer: BET20GET10 -- Bet £20 Get £10 in Free Bets (2 × £5).

For the broader operator background see our Star Sports review and the Ben Keith profile. For Royal Ascot-specific Star Sports content (the Boughey/Loughnane angle on Bow Echo) see our Star Sports Royal Ascot 2026 offers.

For the cross-bookmaker view of Derby 2026 offers -- Best Odds Guaranteed at the firms that still run it (Bet365, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Betfred), Non-Runner-No-Bet from the 5-day declarations stage, 1/4 odds 4 places each-way -- see our bookmakers index.

Important note on prices: Race-specific Derby ante-post books are open at most named UK firms. The Bet365 Derby price (5/1 Benvenuto Cellini, 10/1 Pierre Bonnard, 10/1 Hawk Mountain, 12/1 Christmas Day, 14-16/1 Montreal) is the cleanest single-firm read at 4 May 2026. Expect significant price moves after the Chester Vase (Wed 6 May), Lingfield Derby Trial (Sat 9 May), Leopardstown Derby Trial (Sun 10 May), and Dante Stakes (Thu 14 May) -- the four trial form lines that crystallise the 2026 Derby market.

Responsible note

This piece is a transparent application of the trends-scorecard format to the named field. It is not a guarantee of profit -- as we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, no model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices. The Derby is market-faithful enough that the trends-cleanest pick is usually the right pre-race favourite -- but the 3-of-5-favourites-flop pattern in recent years means the each-way bet at 5/1+ on the Coolmore second-string is the historically-supported value play, not the win-only bet on the favourite. Bet only money you can afford to lose, set limits, BeGambleAware.org.