Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-06-02
Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)
The model published no estimate for this race (2026-06-06_epsom_1600). Estimates are generated daily at 09:00 BST from declared fields, so a race missing from that morning's card never had one.
See the latest model output for today's races, or our model methodology write-up for what the model is and what it isn't.
This has been run. See the Epsom Derby 2026 result for the finishing order and starting prices. What follows is kept as it was written beforehand.
Epsom Downs, Saturday 6 June 2026, 15:30 BST. Race week is here. The 247th running of the Betfred Derby (G1, 1m4f6y, 3yo colts) is four days out, and Tuesday 2 June is the first day of the formal race-week build-up — Clerk of the Course Andrew Cooper's first official going report drops today, the long-list of entries narrows into a workable shortlist, and the market begins its final settle before Thursday's 48-hour declarations [Epsom-Races.com; Racing Post, 2 June].
Status check — Tuesday 2 June. Benvenuto Cellini (Aidan O'Brien / Ryan Moore) holds 7/4 favouritism across bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Paddy Power, Betfred and 888sport, with Item (Andrew Balding / Colin Keane) the steady 7/2 chief British rival (10/3 in places at Paddy Power). Market essentially unchanged since 1 June — no drift on the favourite, no shortening on Item, and the third-best price (Pierre Bonnard 7/1-8/1) has held overnight. The cleanest two-horse Derby market shape since Desert Crown / Westover in 2022 [Racing Post, 2 June; consolidated Oddschecker, verified 2 June].
Where the Tuesday market sits
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Best price (2 June) | Source race |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benvenuto Cellini | A O'Brien | 7/4 (9/5 in places) | Chester Vase winner 4¼L |
| 2 | Item | A Balding | 7/2 (10/3 at Paddy Power) | Dante winner by nearly 3L |
| 3 | Pierre Bonnard | A O'Brien | 7/1-8/1 | Drifted from 4/1 after Leopardstown 2nd |
| 4 | James J Braddock | J O'Brien | 10/1 | Leopardstown Derby Trial winner |
| 5 | Maltese Cross | W Haggas | 10/1 | Lingfield Derby Trial winner |
[Consolidated market via Oddschecker / bet365 / William Hill / Unibet / Paddy Power / Betfred / Spreadex / 888sport, verified 2 June. NRNB live at all named UK firms from the 5-day declaration stage.]
One material weekend removal. Constitution River — who had been a Derby market presence through April-May — has been taken out of the book after his Prix du Jockey Club win at Chantilly on Sunday 31 May. Connections have confirmed he stays at 1m2f rather than tackling Epsom on Saturday [France Galop; L'Equipe, verified 2 June].
What we're waiting for this week
- Thursday 4 June — 48-hour declarations close around noon. Final field and Coolmore jockey-allocation signal arrives here.
- Friday 5 June — 24-hour declarations with draw, silks and confirmed jockey bookings.
- Tuesday-Thursday going reports from Andrew Cooper at Epsom — watering plans depend on the late-week forecast.
- Coolmore and Wathnan stable tours — the Ballydoyle press morning typically lands Wednesday/Thursday, and Wathnan's Appleby update follows on the same beat.
For the full Derby preview see our Epsom Derby 2026 tips, the Epsom Derby 2026 Saturday preview and the Benvenuto Cellini vs Item head-to-head. This tracker is updated through the build-up week.
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Coolmore and Wathnan / Godolphin — who's on track for Saturday
Coolmore (Aidan O'Brien) — going for four in a row
Aidan O'Brien is bidding for a fourth consecutive Epsom Derby after Auguste Rodin (2023), City Of Troy (2024) and Lambourn (2025). The 2026 Ballydoyle hand is the deepest of those four years, and the Tuesday picture into the 48-hour declarations is three near-certain runners plus one TBC [Racing Post, 2 June; TDN].
Expected to run (subject to Thursday's 48-hour stage):
- Benvenuto Cellini (7/4F) — the Chester Vase winner by 4¼L as the 2/9 favourite and the Coolmore-stated Derby lead. Ryan Moore retained the ride at Chester and is expected to keep it for Epsom — a Moore booking on Benvenuto Cellini is the strongest single confidence signal Coolmore can give. See our Chester Vase 2026 result for the trial form line.
- Christmas Day (8/1) — 3rd in the Dante at York on 14 May behind Item, having won the G3 Ballysax at Leopardstown on 12 April. The form line is sound but the price reflects the Dante finish; he's the Coolmore second-string for now.
- Action (14/1) — Coolmore's other Dante runner, 2nd at 4/1 under Wayne Lordan, beaten 2¾L by Item. The Lordan ride is the live editorial — Lordan rode Lambourn to a 13/2 SP Derby win in 2025 when Moore picked Delacroix (the favourite, finished 9th).
TBC at 48-hour stage:
- Pierre Bonnard (7/1-8/1) — the original 6/1 winter favourite, drifted to 33/1 after two beaten reappearances (Ballysax 7th, Leopardstown Derby Trial 2nd to James J Braddock) before tightening back to a single-figure price this week as the field shape clarifies. Aidan O'Brien retains faith per his April Ballydoyle press morning, and the Frankel colt's 2025 Criterium de Saint-Cloud form line is the highest-class juvenile profile in the field. not confirmed
Trainer signal to watch. O'Brien's Wednesday/Thursday stable tour usually clarifies the running order and the jockey allocation. The Moore-vs-Lordan choice in 2025 (Moore picked the wrong horse) and Moore picking the winner in 2024 (City Of Troy) and 2023 (Auguste Rodin) means his 2026 booking is the single cleanest pre-race read on Ballydoyle's internal confidence.
Wathnan Racing / Godolphin (Charlie Appleby) — moderate by recent standards
The 2026 Charlie Appleby Derby team is moderate by Godolphin's modern standards — the post-Adayar / Masar Derby depth is not on the same scale this year, and Appleby's strongest 3yo profile (the Newmarket 2000G group) is being routed toward Royal Ascot rather than Epsom [Racing Post, 2 June; Irish Field].
Expected at the 48-hour stage:
- Al Zanati (16/1-20/1) — Sandown Classic Trial 2nd behind Raaheeb on 18 April. The Cracksman colt is Appleby's clearest Derby-route entry; Wathnan colours have appeared on his board at major firms since the Sandown run.
- King's Trail (20/1-25/1) — Dante 4th at York, in the slipstream of the Coolmore quartet plus Item. The Frankel half-brother carries the Charlie Appleby ground-flexibility but the trial form line is third-class.
Not expected at Epsom this year:
- Distant Storm (Appleby / Buick) — the Newmarket 2000G 3rd is being prepared for the Royal Ascot St James's Palace Stakes on Tuesday 16 June, with Appleby keeping Distant Storm on the 1m route per the Irish Field. not confirmed
- Hawk Mountain (Coolmore reserve) — earlier indicated as a possible Derby runner, routed instead to the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly, where he ran a beaten 8th behind Constitution River on Sunday 31 May. Now out of the Epsom equation per Aidan O'Brien's post-Chantilly comments [Racing Post, 1 June].
For the head-to-head between the two market leaders see our Benvenuto Cellini vs Item Derby 2026 head-to-head. For the broader trial form lines see our Dante to Derby 2026 trends piece.
Epsom going report — Tuesday 2 June
Tuesday morning baseline
Epsom Downs Tuesday 2 June official going report: Good (Good to Firm in places) [Epsom-Races.com going updates, verified 2 June]. Going-stick reading at the 9am Tuesday walk: approximately 8.4 on the round course — a typical late-spring Epsom reading consistent with the Cooper-clerk watering philosophy of maintaining a Good surface rather than allowing it to dry to fast or Firm.
Clerk of the Course Andrew Cooper issues twice-daily going updates from Tuesday through Saturday morning. The Tuesday baseline matches the dry late-May Surrey conditions; Cooper has flagged a planned overnight Tuesday and Wednesday watering window to maintain Good ground if rain does not materialise from the forecast Thursday-Friday systems [Epsom-Races.com; Racing Post going report, 2 June].
Surrey weather outlook — Tuesday through Saturday
| Day | Forecast | Likely impact on going |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 2 June | Dry, 18-21°C, light breeze | Tuesday watering window proceeds as planned |
| Wed 3 June | Dry, 20-23°C, settled | Wednesday watering retains Good |
| Thu 4 June | Showers possible PM, 17-19°C | First natural moisture; watering paused if showers arrive |
| Fri 5 June | Scattered showers, 15-18°C | Going forecast Friday morning: Good (Good to Soft in places possible) |
| Sat 6 June | Mixed, 16-19°C, showers possible AM | Forecast Derby-day going: Good, with Good to Soft not yet ruled out |
[Forecast sources: Met Office Surrey 5-day outlook + BBC Weather Epsom KT18, both verified 2 June. Watering plans per Epsom-Races.com going report 2 June.]
What the going profile means for the named runners
Most of the named Derby field is bred for Good or slightly faster ground — the Frankel-sired Coolmore and Juddmonte pair (Benvenuto Cellini, Item, Pierre Bonnard, Action) all want Good as a base, with Benvenuto Cellini already proven on Good-Soft at Chester and Item proven on Good-Soft in the Dante. A Friday/Saturday weather shift to Good-to-Soft would not punish any of the top three in the market.
Ground-line summary at Tuesday lunchtime:
- Benvenuto Cellini (Frankel) — Good or Good-Soft both fit; Chester Vase win was on Good-Soft
- Item (Frankel) — Good or Good-Soft both fit; Dante win was on Good-Soft
- Pierre Bonnard (Frankel) — Good-to-firm preferred; Soft would not be ideal
- James J Braddock (Dubawi) — sire-line ground-flexible
- Maltese Cross (Sea The Stars) — Soft is fine; Sea The Stars is the most ground-flexible of the major sire lines
Cooper-clerk track record
Cooper marked 30 years as Epsom Clerk of the Course in June 2025 and the watering philosophy has been consistent across his tenure: maintain Good rather than soften, water in the evening rather than during the day, and respond to forecast rain by pausing irrigation rather than chasing the going [Epsom-Races.com archive; At The Races retrospectives]. The 2025 Derby went on Good (Good to Soft in places) after 3.4mm Tuesday and 7mm Thursday; the 2024 and 2023 Derbies both went on Good. Good is the most likely Saturday going by a clear margin, with Good-to-Soft the second-most-likely outcome and anything firmer or softer requiring an unusual weather pattern between now and Friday.
This tracker will refresh the going report and the watering update each morning through Friday. The Friday morning reading — published shortly after the 24-hour declarations and stalls draw — is the cleanest single line on race-day conditions.
What to watch this Derby week
Tuesday 2 June is day one of the formal build-up. The market is in a stable two-horse shape, the going is on a Cooper-managed Good baseline, and there are four concrete catalysts between today and Saturday's off [Racing Post, 2 June].
Wednesday 3 June — Coolmore stable tour
Aidan O'Brien's Wednesday Ballydoyle media call typically lands mid-morning ahead of Thursday's 48-hour declarations and is the single richest pre-race source for jockey allocation, who actually runs, and Coolmore's ranking of the four named horses [Racing Post stable tour archive; TDN]. Specific lines to watch:
- Does Ryan Moore commit to Benvenuto Cellini publicly, or does O'Brien leave the booking open until the 24-hour stage on Friday? A Wednesday Moore confirmation tightens Benvenuto Cellini further.
- Is Pierre Bonnard a confirmed runner or a doubtful? The price drift from 4/1 to 33/1 and back to 7/1-8/1 reflects genuine connections-level uncertainty.
- Christmas Day, Action, Pierre Bonnard — does Coolmore go four-handed, or do they pull one back for a Royal Ascot route?
Thursday 4 June — 48-hour declarations close
48-hour declarations close at midday on Thursday. The final number of declared runners, the trainer signal about whether anyone is supplementing or scratching, and the Wathnan Racing / Charlie Appleby commitment all land here.
- Expected final field: 13-17 declared runners (typical Derby).
- Wathnan / Appleby are not expected to supplement — Distant Storm is held for the St James's Palace, Al Zanati and King's Trail are the Sandown / Dante line.
- Any late Coolmore drop-out between the 48-hour and 24-hour stages compresses the market further. not confirmed
Friday 5 June — 24-hour declarations, draw, Coronation Cup and Oaks
Friday is the day everything locks in. 24-hour declarations close in the morning, the stalls draw runs at lunchtime, and the supporting Friday card (Coronation Cup + Epsom Oaks) provides the first live read on the Saturday going. The 1m4f Coronation Cup is run on essentially the same configuration as the Derby — its winning time and run style is the most-watched form line of the Friday.
Stalls draw watch:
- Stalls 7-14 source the majority of recent Derby winners.
- Stalls 1, 2, 11, 16 are historically the most barren.
- Lambourn drew stall 10 in 2025 — the classic mid-pack draw.
- A Benvenuto Cellini draw in single figures from stall 5 outwards is the cleanest tactical signal.
For the Friday card see our Epsom Derby 2026 Friday preview and the Coronation Cup 2026 preview.
Saturday 6 June — the race itself
Off-time 15:30 BST. ITV1 / ITVX live, Racing TV Player paid, bookmaker streams free with a placed bet. The Saturday morning going-stick reading and any race-morning ground tweaks land at approximately 8am.
For the race-day verdict and tips see our Epsom Derby 2026 tips, the Epsom Derby 2026 Saturday preview, the Epsom Derby 2026 trends and stats piece, the Benvenuto Cellini vs Item head-to-head and the Epsom Derby 2026 dress code guide.
Where to bet for Derby week
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Responsible note. This tracker is a live build-up piece — prices and going move daily. No model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices; see our in-house AI horse racing model write-up. Each-way bets are the structurally smarter choice in a 15+ runner Derby field. Bet only money you can afford to lose, set limits, BeGambleAware.org.
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