Cheltenham November Meeting Day One: You v the AI

The players had the better of the opening day of Cheltenham's November Meeting in You v the AI. The top two finished well clear of every machine on the board: our racing model (listed as Stablebet AI), the market favourite and the chatbots from our Tipster League.

The leader had three winners and two losers. The runner-up had two winners and three losers and still finished far ahead of the machines, because one of those winners came at a big price. Both of them backed Norman Fletcher in the opening race, a winner no machine had.

Our model had an odd day. Its picks are frozen from the race-day card early in the morning, and three of the horses it chose were withdrawn before the off. A non-runner scores nothing, so the model was judged on the half of its picks that ran: one winner, Jonbon in the Shloer Chase, and two losers. The market favourite won the same race and lost the other four it ran in.

One afternoon says very little about anyone's judgement. It does show how the scoring works. A winner at a big price is worth far more than a string of short-priced ones.

Saturday's card is open now, with the Paddy Power Gold Cup in the middle of the afternoon.

Play Saturday's races in You v the AI

Race by race

Every machine on the board backed Jonbon in the Shloer Chase. He won at odds-on, so that winner was worth very little to anyone who had him. The other races decided the day.

Four of the winners were backed by no machine at all: Norman Fletcher in the opener, D Art D Art in the novices' chase, Lock Stock in the Albert Bartlett and Lexington Wood in the last. Norman Fletcher was the longest-priced winner of the afternoon, and that one result accounts for most of the gap between the top two players and the machines. Both players also had Thunder Rock in the veterans' chase.

ChatGPT and Gemini found Thunder Rock as well. They were the only machines to end the day ahead on points, and only just, which is what one winner at a fair price does over a single afternoon. Every chatbot backed Outmaster in the opener, and Outmaster finished last. Grok and DeepSeek had a runner in every race and found only Jonbon.

One day ranks nobody. The Tipster League has every chatbot's full record. The league has settled 56,322 picks across all its entrants.

Why half the model's picks did not run

The model picks from the race-day card, published early on race morning, and its picks are frozen from that moment. On the opening day three of them did not run. Petersham Place in the Albert Bartlett and Sytadel in the closing handicap hurdle were withdrawn after the picks were frozen. Derryhassen Paddy in the novices' chase was different: the race-day card already listed him as a non-runner when the picks were frozen, and both the model's pick and the favourite pick still chose him.

A non-runner scores nothing in the game: no points won, no stake lost. Our track record uses the same rule, so those picks count as void there too. It cuts both ways. The model was spared three possible losers and denied three chances of a winner, and nobody can say which it would have been.

Players work under the same rule, with one difference. Your pick stays open until the race is due off, so you can switch when a horse comes out. Not everyone does: each of the top two players still had a non-runner on their card.

Over the longer run, across 11,994 races, the model's top pick has won 24.6% of the time and returned −13.5% at starting price, losers included. One day at Cheltenham barely moves those figures.

Saturday: Paddy Power Gold Cup day

Saturday's challenge card covers every race at Cheltenham, from the amateur jockeys' handicap chase that opens the afternoon to the mares' bumper that closes it. The Paddy Power Gold Cup sits in the middle. It is a big-field handicap, a different test from the small field for Friday's Shloer Chase, with more horses that can win.

The rules are the same as on Friday. Our model's Saturday picks are taken from the final card early on race morning and frozen from then. Yours stay open until each race is due off, so you can watch for non-runners and change your mind. You lock in with a username, it is free, and there are no prizes.

Play Saturday's card and follow the scores on the meeting's leaderboard.

Before you pick, the Paddy Power Gold Cup preview has the declared field and the weights. Every runner on the day is on our Cheltenham racecard, the whole meeting is on the November Meeting hub, and if you are new to the game, You v the AI at Cheltenham explains how it works.

Common questions

Who led after day one of the November Meeting challenge?

A player, not a machine. The top two players both backed Norman Fletcher, the opening race's winner, and finished well clear of our model, the favourite and every chatbot. The leaderboard has every score.

Why was the AI scored on only some of its picks?

Three of the horses it picked did not run. Two were withdrawn after its picks were frozen on race morning. The third, Derryhassen Paddy, was already listed as a non-runner on the card the picks were taken from. A non-runner scores nothing, win or lose, so only the picks that ran count.

Can I still join on Saturday?

Yes. Saturday's card is open, each pick stays open until its race is due off, and you only need a username. It is free and for adults aged 18 and over.

Is the AI's pick a tip?

No. The model is a test we publish in full, losers included. Nothing here is advice to bet.

A word on all of this

This is a game about judgement, not a way to make money from betting. Over time the odds favour the bookmaker. If your betting has stopped being fun, BeGambleAware has free, confidential help, and the National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133.