Racing card, 21 September 2026: Hamilton

The card for Monday 21 September 2026 runs to six meetings and 46 races: Listowel and Fairyhouse in Ireland, and Hamilton, Leicester, Ffos Las and Wolverhampton in Britain. The first race is at Listowel at 13:23 and the last is at Wolverhampton at 20:12. Wolverhampton has the longest card of the day, and the biggest field of it goes to post at Fairyhouse. The feature is the Evolution, Your Partner For Fastener Solutions EBF Maiden Stakes at Hamilton, due off at 14:15, and it has the next section to itself. Every runner, with the model's estimated chance beside the market's price, is on the racecards page, and the model's view of the whole day is on the day's predictions; the card was written before the first race, so nothing on it is a result.

The feature: the Evolution, Your Partner For Fastener Solutions EBF Maiden Stakes at Hamilton

Stablebet model (estimated win chances)

Hamilton 14:15 · Evolution, Your Partner For Fastener Solutions EBF Maiden Stakes · Class 4 · 5f7y

Full output →

The model rates Havana Cohiba its most likely winner at 25%, ahead of By Jove Grace (23%) and Mrs Blue (20%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Havana Cohiba P Mulrennan / C N Kellett	67.00	25.4%	1.4%	Market 24.1pp longer
By Jove Grace Warren Fentiman / R A Fahey	1.91	23.3%	47.4%	Market 24.2pp shorter
Mrs Blue D Tudhope / Ollie Sangster	4.00	19.9%	22.7%	Market 2.8pp shorter
Queen Of Tears D Allan / T D Easterby	34.00	16.2%	2.7%	Market 13.6pp longer
Kumharas Billy Garritty / R A Fahey	3.50	15.2%	25.9%	Market 10.7pp shorter

These are the model's estimated win chances, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so treat it as an independent second opinion for understanding the race. See how accurate it is →

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Mon, 21 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

The model rates Havana Cohiba its most likely winner, while the market has By Jove Grace shortest. The card above sets the model's estimated chance for each runner beside the chance implied by the market, and the gap between the two columns is the only thing the Lab claims to measure; it says which horse the model rates highest and nothing about what to do with that. The race is run over 5f7y, on ground declared as Good, with five priced runners. The course itself is covered in the Hamilton guide.

Where the model disagrees with the market

The widest gap between the model's estimate and the market's price on this card is in the betting.bet New Betting Sites/EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes at Ffos Las (14:38), where the model gives Ongombo a smaller chance than the price implies. The race was chosen by the size of that gap and by nothing else.

Stablebet model (estimated win chances)

Ffos Las 14:38 · betting.bet New Betting Sites/EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes · Class 5 · 6f

Full output →

The model rates Reece's Call its most likely winner at 19%, ahead of Gilded Call (15%) and Reddy (15%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Reece's Call Jack Doughty / B R Millman	17.00	19.0%	5.1%	Market 13.8pp longer
Gilded Call Tom Marquand / B J Meehan	21.00	15.1%	4.2%	Market 10.9pp longer
Reddy Callum Hutchinson / Eve Johnson Houghton	3.00	14.9%	29.0%	Market 14.1pp shorter
Ongombo Oisin Murphy / C Fellowes	1.83	13.7%	47.5%	Market 33.8pp shorter
So Sexy Me Darragh Keenan / Adam Kirby	13.00	12.7%	6.7%	Market 6.0pp longer
Little Tin Soldier David Probert / Jack Morland	15.00	12.4%	5.8%	Market 6.6pp longer
Angelica Teach K T O'Neill / Mrs N S Evans	51.00	12.3%	1.7%	Market 10.5pp longer

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Mon, 21 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

A gap is a difference of opinion, and a difference of opinion is all it is: the wide ones tend to fall on runners the model has the least evidence about, as often as on a horse the market has overlooked. The left column is the model's estimated chance, the right is the chance the price implies, and the track record shows how often the model's side of the argument has been right once every pick is settled at starting price.

What the card costs

Every price on the card carries the bookmaker's margin: add up the chances the prices imply and the total comes to more than a whole field, and the excess is what the book keeps whichever horse wins. The table below is the latest published margin for each book the Lab tracks. It is compiled from the previous evening's prices, so it describes the card as it was sold then rather than the morning's board, and the order of the table is a measurement, never a recommendation.

Bookmaker	Races	Overround	Takeout
1 SmarketsSBK	592	15.67%	13.55%
2 BetTom	516	23.62%	19.11%
3 Bet365	753	23.94%	19.32%
4 LiveScore Bet shared feed	598	24.63%	19.76%
= Virgin Bet shared feed	595	24.65%	19.77%
6 William Hill	779	25.63%	20.40%
7 Unibet	775	26.89%	21.19%
= Quinn Bet	767	27.07%	21.30%
= Hollywood Bets	753	27.18%	21.37%
= 7Bet	642	27.20%	21.38%
11 Paddy Power	803	27.49%	21.56%
= Betfred	741	27.51%	21.57%
= 10 Bet	725	27.62%	21.65%
14 Coral shared feed	806	28.04%	21.90%
= Ladbrokes shared feed	806	28.07%	21.92%
= Star Sports	807	28.19%	21.99%
17 Midnite	783	28.86%	22.40%
= Boyle Sports	796	28.99%	22.48%
19 Bet Victor shared feed	570	29.44%	22.75%
= Betano shared feed	568	29.61%	22.85%
21 Dragon Bet	807	29.98%	23.06%
= BetWright	807	30.02%	23.09%
23 Betfair Sportsbook	802	30.36%	23.29%
24 BresBet	217	32.04%	24.27%
25 BetMGM	807	32.41%	24.48%

First pre-race book of each day, 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-20, across 809 races every listed book priced in full. Exchanges and spread firms are excluded: they do not quote comparable win odds. Overround is how far past a fair book the prices sit; takeout is the share of stakes the book keeps. On 23 days of data, books marked = are level with the one above rather than behind it. Books marked "shared feed" are one half of a pair that does not price independently, so there are fewer independent books here than rows.

The margin is the reason the Lab's tested strategies lose over time even when a pick is sound; what betting costs has the working, and the Tipster League shows what it does to the AI tipsters over a season.

Elsewhere in the Lab: How Much Should I Actually Be Putting On?.

Common questions

Which meetings race on Monday 21 September 2026?

Listowel and Fairyhouse in Ireland, and Hamilton, Leicester, Ffos Las and Wolverhampton in Britain. Every card is on the racecards page with the model's estimated chance beside each runner, and the first race is at Listowel at 13:23.

When are the model's estimates published?

Each morning before the first race, from the declared runners, and they are not changed after the off. A card labels itself a pre-race estimate once its race has run.

What does the model's chance mean?

The model's own estimate of how likely each runner is to win, set beside the chance the market price implies. It is an opinion with a published record, not a tip, and the track record is where that record lives.

Why is a horse missing from a card?

Either it was withdrawn after the estimates were made, or the race was one the model did not price. The horse tracker follows any runner on the card to its next entry.

How are the AI tipsters doing?

The Tipster League settles every AI pick at starting price and publishes the running total, losses included.

A word on all of this

None of the above is a tip, and no system the Lab has tested has made money over the whole record. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, BeGambleAware has free, confidential help.

Every figure on this page renders live from our published feeds and nothing here is a tip. For whether the model holds any edge, see our track record. 18+, please bet responsibly.