Market movers, 25 September 2026

The market for Friday 25 September 2026 has moved since the morning show. Listowel, Dundalk, Worcester, Newmarket, Haydock Park and Newcastle still have racing to come, and since the morning market the biggest move has been for Havachoc at Newcastle, while Miss Willow Grey at Listowel has gone the other way. Of the day's 44 races, 39 were still to be run when the opening show was set against the morning market, the next of them the EITC Training Series Final Apprentice Handicap at 13:58 at Haydock Park, and the moves below are drawn from those races alone.

The morning market is the price the day's predictions recorded for each runner before the first show; the opening show is the middle bookmaker price in the Lab's first snapshot of the day, exchanges left out. A steamer is a runner whose price has shortened between the two, a drifter one whose price has lengthened, and a move is a description of the market's opinion, never advice.

Every runner, with the model's estimated chance beside the price, is on the racecards page.

Steamers: Havachoc at Newcastle

The biggest shorteners have all moved sharply since the morning market, largest first: Havachoc has shortened for the Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap at 16:35 at Newcastle, Max Mayfield has shortened for the Shanahan Power Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race at 17:05 at Listowel and Beckon has shortened for the Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap at 16:35 at Newcastle. The card below is the race Havachoc runs in, the biggest single move on the day, with the model's estimated chance for each runner beside the chance the morning market implied.

Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)

Newcastle 16:35 · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · Class 6 · 1m4f98y

Latest output →

Pre-race estimate. Published 25 September 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.

The model rated Havachoc its most likely winner at 10%, ahead of Rubellite (9%) and Farabove The Limit (9%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Havachoc D Nolan / P Morris	101.00	10.1%	0.8%	Market 9.4pp longer
Rubellite C J Whiteley / S Hanlon	2.88	9.5%	27.5%	Market 18.0pp shorter
Farabove The Limit P Mulrennan / Phillip Makin	6.50	8.6%	12.2%	Market 3.6pp shorter
Sutton Hoo Jack Dace / S Hanlon	34.00	8.5%	2.3%	Market 6.2pp longer
Ouro Preto A Mullen / I Jardine	21.00	8.2%	3.8%	Market 4.4pp longer
Spirit Of Nature Joanna Mason / J S Goldie	51.00	7.8%	1.6%	Market 6.2pp longer
Beckon George Wood / S Corbett	101.00	7.7%	0.8%	Market 6.9pp longer
That Darn Cantor Rowan Scott / E A L Dunlop	9.00	7.6%	8.8%	Market 1.2pp shorter
Cusack Gina Mangan / D Thompson	13.00	7.4%	6.1%	Market 1.3pp longer
Newport Tom Kiely-Marshall / I Jardine	3.75	6.3%	21.1%	Market 14.8pp shorter
Hey Havana P J McDonald / G A Harker	7.50	6.2%	10.5%	Market 4.3pp shorter
Beat The Odds Cam Hardie / A Brittain	101.00	6.1%	0.8%	Market 5.3pp longer
Dancingondiamonds Jack Callan / P Morris	21.00	6.1%	3.8%	Market 2.3pp longer

These were the model's estimated win chances going into the race, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so read it as an independent second opinion on the race. See how accurate it is →

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Fri, 25 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

The model rates Havachoc its most likely winner, and the market has come for the same horse since the opening show. The model's estimate was made before the first show and does not move with the market, so the gap between its column and a steamer's price is a difference of opinion, not a verdict on either; the track record settles every one of its picks at starting price. The course itself is covered in the Newcastle guide.

Drifters: Miss Willow Grey at Listowel

The biggest lengtheners have all moved sharply since the morning market, largest first: Miss Willow Grey has drifted for the Shanahan Power Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race at 17:05 at Listowel, Sarfarcat has drifted for the Friday Night Lights At Dundalk Claiming Maiden at 17:30 at Dundalk and Kokoshanelle has drifted for the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden at 18:30 at Dundalk. The card below is the race Miss Willow Grey runs in, the biggest single drift on the day, with the model's estimated chance beside the morning market's.

Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)

Listowel 17:05 · Shanahan Power Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race · 2m

Latest output →

Pre-race estimate. Published 25 September 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.

The model rated She Was The One its most likely winner at 9%, ahead of Streamhill (8%) and Shuil Solas (7%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
She Was The One Mr H C Swan / D Hogan	5.00	9.4%	12.8%	Market 3.3pp shorter
Streamhill Ms Grace Dorgan / Padraig Butler	15.00	8.4%	4.3%	Market 4.2pp longer
Shuil Solas Mr D O'Connor / J & T Kiely	11.00	6.8%	5.8%	Market 0.9pp longer
Discussion Mr F Maguire / C Weld	7.50	6.7%	8.5%	Market 1.8pp shorter
Miss Willow Grey Reserve 3 / Michael Roche	13.00	6.0%	4.9%	Market 1.1pp longer
Orbital Ocean Anna McGuinness / Ms M Mullins	17.00	5.7%	3.8%	Market 1.9pp longer
Mistakenforanother Mr D Doyle / J P Ryan	13.00	5.6%	4.9%	Market 0.7pp longer
Killeedy Mr P W Mullins / W P Mullins	7.50	5.6%	8.5%	Market 2.9pp shorter
Viva Laa Vida Mr J L Gleeson / H De Bromhead	4.00	5.4%	16.0%	Market 10.6pp shorter
The Ocean Queen Mr D G Lavery / G P Cromwell	5.50	5.2%	11.6%	Market 6.4pp shorter
Max Mayfield Reserve 2 / S Curling	151.00	5.2%	0.4%	Market 4.8pp longer
An Lachin Beag Paddy Cleary / N Slevin	15.00	5.1%	4.3%	Market 0.9pp longer
Feeling Lucky Mr R W Barron / Miss J M Lee	101.00	5.1%	0.6%	Market 4.5pp longer
Peace Rose Mrs Holly Conte / Vincent Conte	101.00	5.1%	0.6%	Market 4.4pp longer
Certavi Et Vici Mr F R Buckley / N Slevin	51.00	5.1%	1.3%	Market 3.8pp longer
Birdie Conway Reserve 1 / N Meade	11.00	5.0%	5.8%	Market 0.9pp shorter
Anna Quaintance Mr A P Ryan / Peter Fahey	11.00	4.5%	5.8%	Market 1.3pp shorter

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Fri, 25 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

A drift is the market's opinion changing, and the reasons range from a non-runner or a change of going to a stable's own confidence, none of which the price itself explains. The model does not react to it: its estimate is the same one the morning card carried, which is why a drifter can sit above the market in the left column and below it in the right. The horse tracker follows any runner on the card to its next entry, whichever way its price went.

The cost of backing early

Taking a price before the off means taking the bookmaker's margin at that moment, and the margin is paid whichever way the price then moves: a steamer rewards the early price and a drifter punishes it, but the excess the book keeps over a whole field is built into both. The table below is the latest published margin for each book the Lab tracks, compiled from the previous evening's prices, so it describes the card as it was sold then rather than the lunchtime board.

Bookmaker	Races	Overround	Takeout
1 SmarketsSBK	982	15.64%	13.52%
2 BetTom	872	23.34%	18.92%
3 Bet365	1256	24.11%	19.43%
= LiveScore Bet shared feed	960	24.31%	19.55%
= Virgin Bet shared feed	958	24.35%	19.58%
6 William Hill	1295	25.77%	20.49%
7 7Bet	1015	26.63%	21.03%
= Unibet	1290	26.76%	21.11%
9 Quinn Bet	1280	27.16%	21.36%
= Hollywood Bets	1277	27.21%	21.39%
11 Betfred	1220	27.48%	21.56%
= Paddy Power	1326	27.58%	21.62%
13 10 Bet	1205	27.85%	21.78%
14 Star Sports	1331	28.37%	22.10%
15 Coral shared feed	1332	28.85%	22.39%
= Midnite	1297	28.90%	22.42%
= Ladbrokes shared feed	1333	28.94%	22.44%
18 Boyle Sports	1323	29.19%	22.59%
= Bet Victor shared feed	924	29.41%	22.73%
= Betano shared feed	923	29.52%	22.79%
21 Dragon Bet	1335	30.11%	23.14%
= BetWright	1335	30.14%	23.16%
23 Betfair Sportsbook	1327	30.55%	23.40%
24 BresBet	217	32.04%	24.27%
25 BetMGM	1335	33.41%	25.04%

First pre-race book of each day, 2026-08-27 to 2026-10-04, across 1337 races every listed book priced in full. Exchanges and spread firms are excluded: they do not quote comparable win odds. Overround is how far past a fair book the prices sit; takeout is the share of stakes the book keeps. On 37 days of data, books marked = are level with the one above rather than behind it. Books marked "shared feed" are one half of a pair that does not price independently, so there are fewer independent books here than rows.

What betting costs has the working behind the margin, and the Tipster League shows what taking a price every day does to the AI tipsters over a season, losses included.

Elsewhere in the Lab: Is the AI Better Than Just Backing the Favourite?.

Common questions

Which meetings race on Friday 25 September 2026?

Listowel and Dundalk in Ireland, and Worcester, Newmarket, Haydock Park and Newcastle in Britain. Every card is on the racecards page with the model's estimated chance beside each runner, and all of them still have racing to come.

What is a steamer?

A runner whose price has shortened since an earlier market, here the morning market recorded in the predictions file. The opposite move, a price lengthening, makes a drifter.

Does a steamer win more often?

The Lab makes no such claim. A shortening price is the market's opinion strengthening, and the track record settles the model's own picks at starting price rather than at the price they opened at, so the answer for any system is a running figure over every day, not a rule.

Where do the prices come from?

From the Lab's own snapshot of the bookmakers' boards, taken in the late morning and compared with the morning market the model priced against. Exchange prices carry commission and are left out.

How are the AI tipsters doing?

The Tipster League settles every AI pick at starting price and publishes the running total, losses included.

A word on all of this

None of the above is a tip, and no system the Lab has tested has made money over the whole record. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, BeGambleAware has free, confidential help.

Every figure on this page renders live from our published feeds and nothing here is a tip. For whether the model holds any edge, see our track record. 18+, please bet responsibly.