Founder & Editor Β· Last reviewed 2026-07-06
Stablebet model β estimated win chances
Sandown Park 15:35 Β· Coral-Eclipse (Group 1) Β· 1 Β· 1m1f209y
The model rates Constitution River its most likely winner at 18%, ahead of Gethin (18%) and Hawk Mountain (17%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.
| Horse | SP | Model chance | Market | vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution River R L Moore / A P O'Brien | 1.83 | 18.1% | 47.5% | Market 29.4pp shorter |
| Gethin James Doyle / Owen Burrows | 5.00 | 17.9% | 17.4% | Market 0.5pp longer |
| Hawk Mountain Wayne Lordan / A P O'Brien | 7.00 | 17.3% | 12.4% | Market 4.8pp longer |
| Saddadd Ray Dawson / R Varian | 8.00 | 15.7% | 10.9% | Market 4.9pp longer |
| A Boy Named Susie Oisin Murphy / Donnacha O'Brien | 9.00 | 10.9% | 9.7% | Market 1.2pp longer |
| Flushing Meadows S M Levey / A P O'Brien | 101.00 | 10.2% | 0.9% | Market 9.3pp longer |
| King's Gambit J P Spencer / Harry Charlton | 67.00 | 9.9% | 1.3% | Market 8.6pp longer |
These are the model's estimated win chances, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results β when it says 25%, about 25% win β but it does not beat the market, so treat it as an independent second opinion for understanding the race. See how accurate it is β
Constitution River lands the Eclipse
The 2026 Coral-Eclipse went to Constitution River, the Aidan O'Brien-trained three-year-old, who justified odds-on favouritism under Ryan Moore to beat A Boy Named Susie by three lengths at Sandown on Saturday 4 July. Hawk Mountain, a stablemate of the winner, finished third.
Sent off the 8/11 favourite, Constitution River took the weight-for-age allowance from his elders and used it, quickening clear up Sandown's stiff uphill finish to win going away in a time of 2 minutes 4.43 seconds. For O'Brien it was a fourth consecutive Coral-Eclipse and a tenth win in the race overall β extending an already remarkable record in Sandown's midsummer Group 1.
It was a small but classy field of seven. The market principals from the five-day entry stage largely swerved the race, leaving a compact line-up in which the favourite's superior class told. A Boy Named Susie, trained by Donnacha O'Brien and ridden by Oisin Murphy, ran a fine race at 20/1 to fill the runner-up spot, with Hawk Mountain a further length or so back in third at 11/1.
This piece carries the full verified result and finishing order, a short account of how the race was run, and an honest look back at how the contest measured up against the angles we set out in our Coral-Eclipse 2026 preview.
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The result and how it unfolded
Constitution River's stablemate Flushing Meadows (a 200/1 outsider) did the early donkey work, setting a strong gallop to stretch the field and put a premium on stamina β exactly the kind of end-to-end test Sandown's mile-and-a-quarter is built to reward. Ryan Moore held Constitution River up in behind, asked him to pick up as the race turned for home, and the favourite worked his way past his rivals before drawing three lengths clear on the climb to the line.
A Boy Named Susie stayed on strongly for second under Oisin Murphy β a big run at 20/1 β with Hawk Mountain keeping on for third to complete a one-three for the O'Brien yard. Behind them, Roger Varian's Saddadd and Owen Burrows' Gethin filled the places of best of the rest.
Full finishing order β 2026 Coral-Eclipse (Sandown, 1m2f, Group 1)
| Pos | Horse | SP | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Constitution River | 8/11f | Ryan Moore | Aidan O'Brien |
| 2nd | A Boy Named Susie | 20/1 | Oisin Murphy | Donnacha O'Brien |
| 3rd | Hawk Mountain | 11/1 | Wayne Lordan | Aidan O'Brien |
| 4th | Saddadd | 4/1 | Ray Dawson | Roger Varian |
| 5th | Gethin | 4/1 | James Doyle | Owen Burrows |
| 6th | King's Gambit | 100/1 | Jamie Spencer | Harry Charlton |
| 7th | Flushing Meadows | 200/1 | Sean Levey | Aidan O'Brien |
Winning distance: 3 lengths. Winning time: 2 min 4.43 sec.
The result reads as a thorough validation of the favourite. In a race where the pace was genuine and the finish demanding, the best-credentialled horse in the field settled it with a decisive turn of foot, and the front two pulled clear of the remainder.
Constitution River's name now joins a roll of honour dominated by the same yard:
Coral-Eclipse (Eclipse Stakes): Recent Winners
Group 1 Β· 1m 1f 209y Β· 3yo+ (fillies & mares 3lb allowance) Β· Sandown Β· Early July
| Year | Winner | Age | SP | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Constitution River | 3 | 8/11 | Ryan Moore | Aidan O'Brien |
| 2025 | Delacroix | 3 | β | Ryan Moore | Aidan O'Brien |
| 2024 | City of Troy | 3 | β | Ryan Moore | Aidan O'Brien |
| 2023 | Paddington | 3 | β | Ryan Moore | Aidan O'Brien |
| 2022 | Vadeni | 3 | β | Christophe Soumillon | Jean-Claude Rouget |
| 2021 | St Mark's Basilica | 3 | β | Ryan Moore | Aidan O'Brien |
| 2020 | Ghaiyyath | 5 | β | William Buick | Charlie Appleby |
| 2019 | Enable | 5 | β | Frankie Dettori | John Gosden |
| 2018 | Roaring Lion | 3 | β | Oisin Murphy | John Gosden |
| 2017 | Ulysses | 4 | β | Jim Crowley | Sir Michael Stoute |
Trends
- Three-year-olds taking the weight-for-age allowance dominate recent runnings, though top older horses (Enable, Ghaiyyath, Ulysses) also win it.
- Strong Classic and Royal Ascot form plus proven stamina up the Sandown hill are the key pointers; Ballydoyle sets the standard.
Source-verified from official records. Last checked 2026-07-06.
Result verified against the Racing Post race report and the At The Races result.
How it graded against our preview
We set out a handful of angles in the Coral-Eclipse 2026 preview β tendencies to weigh rather than tips. Here is an honest scorecard, including where the race simply took the question off the table.
Entries were not the field β and this year that mattered a lot. We led the field section with a plain warning: those were "34 entries at the five-day stage β not the final field," and "several of these will not take their chance." That caveat earned its keep. The market's headline names from the entry stage β Ombudsman, Calandagan, Precise, Minnie Hauk and Almaqam among them β did not line up, and the Eclipse cut up to a seven-runner race. Anyone who had anchored a view to the five-day list would have been reading the wrong contest.
"The three-year-old could be the one to fear if the allowance bites." This is the line that landed. In the Classic-generation part of the preview we singled out O'Brien's three-year-olds β naming Constitution River and Hawk Mountain specifically β as the ones taking the weight-for-age allowance from their elders, and flagged that "the three-year-old that lines up could be the one to fear if the allowance bites." It bit: Constitution River and Hawk Mountain finished first and third.
Class told, as a championship Group 1 usually demands. Our first angle was simply that the Eclipse is rarely won by a horse without genuine Group-class form. The 8/11 favourite winning, and the front two pulling clear of the rest, is that angle in its plainest form.
You had to stay the trip and handle the hill. With a strong pace set by a stablemate pacemaker and a three-length winning margin forged on the climb, this was the stamina-and-hill test we described β not a race won on a flat-track turn of foot.
The Royal Ascot form line went untested. Our strongest "form in" pointer was to lean on the Royal Ascot collateral β the Prince of Wales's and the Coronation. In the event, the horses who carried that form (Ombudsman, Precise, Minnie Hauk) stayed away, so that particular line was neither vindicated nor refuted here; it simply did not get its examination. Worth stating plainly rather than claiming credit either way.
Net: the structural angles (class, stamina, the weight-for-age edge for the right three-year-old) read well, and β importantly β the honesty caveat about entries versus declared runners did real work. The Ascot-form angle is filed as untested, not as a hit.
What it means
For Constitution River, this is a defining mid-season performance: a three-year-old beating his elders in a championship Group 1, doing it as an odds-on favourite and doing it decisively. Taking the older horses at weight-for-age over a strongly run mile-and-a-quarter is exactly the kind of form line that reads well into the season's biggest middle-distance prizes later in the summer and autumn. Where connections point him next was not confirmed on the day, so it is one to watch rather than assume.
For Aidan O'Brien, a fourth straight Eclipse and a tenth in total continues a level of dominance in the race that is hard to overstate. The one-three with Constitution River and Hawk Mountain, and the use of Flushing Meadows to guarantee a proper gallop, was a textbook example of a powerful yard controlling the shape of a small-field Group 1 to suit its best horse.
The wider takeaway is about the race itself. When the market principals opt to wait, a valuable Group 1 can cut up to a compact affair in which class and a genuine pace do the sorting β and this renewal did precisely that. A Boy Named Susie's run at 20/1 was the honourable outsider's tale of the day, staying on for a clear second and confirming that the front two were a cut above the remainder.
We will keep the Coral-Eclipse 2026 preview live alongside this result so the pre-race read and the outcome sit together. For an independent, calibrated probability on races like this closer to the day, see the AI Race Predictor; and for the summer's other Group 1 results as they come in, follow our racing news.
Responsible gambling: nothing here is a tip or betting advice. If you gamble, set limits, take breaks and never chase losses. Free, confidential help is at BeGambleAware.org. 18+.
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