Racing card, 23 September 2026: Listowel

The card for Wednesday 23 September 2026 runs to five meetings and 36 races: Listowel in Ireland, and Goodwood, Redcar, Perth and Kempton Park in Britain. The first race is at Goodwood at 13:30 and the last is at Kempton Park at 20:30. Kempton Park has the longest card of the day, and the biggest field of it goes to post at Listowel. The feature is the Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) at Listowel, due off at 16:15, and it has the next section to itself. Every runner, with the model's estimated chance beside the market's price, is on the racecards page, and the model's view of the whole day is on the day's predictions; the card was written before the first race, so nothing on it is a result.

The feature: the Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) at Listowel

Stablebet model (estimated win chances)

Listowel 16:15 · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · Class 1 · 2m7f180y

Full output →

The model rates Doctor Ken its most likely winner at 6%, ahead of Ballygunner Castle (6%) and Conyers Hill (6%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Doctor Ken Mark Walsh / E McNamara	21.00	6.4%	3.4%	Market 3.1pp longer
Ballygunner Castle Danny Mullins / W P Mullins	15.00	6.3%	4.7%	Market 1.6pp longer
Conyers Hill Alan O'Sullivan / P Nolan	9.00	5.7%	7.8%	Market 2.1pp shorter
Look To The West Danny Gilligan / E McNamara	26.00	5.7%	2.7%	Market 3.0pp longer
Uncle Pat Sean Cleary-Farrell / W P Mullins	17.00	5.4%	4.1%	Market 1.3pp longer
Kings Hill J J Slevin / P J Gilligan	9.00	5.2%	7.8%	Market 2.6pp shorter
King Alexander Daniel King / W P Mullins	5.50	5.0%	12.8%	Market 7.8pp shorter
A Penny A Hundred Reserve 2 / W P Mullins	—	4.9%	0.0%	In line with market
Weveallbeencaught Sean Flanagan / E McNamara	34.00	4.8%	2.1%	Market 2.8pp longer
Funiculi Funicula Paul Townend / W P Mullins	7.00	4.8%	10.1%	Market 5.3pp shorter
Yoradreamer Reserve 3 / W P Mullins	—	4.4%	0.0%	In line with market
Will The Wise Keith Donoghue / G P Cromwell	11.00	4.4%	6.4%	Market 2.0pp shorter
Nowwhatdoyouthink Jack Kennedy / G Elliott	6.00	4.3%	11.7%	Market 7.4pp shorter
You Oughta Know Josh Williamson / W P Mullins	34.00	4.3%	2.1%	Market 2.2pp longer
Downmexicoway Darragh O'Keeffe / H De Bromhead	8.00	4.3%	8.8%	Market 4.5pp shorter
Perceval Legallois Harry Cobden / G P Cromwell	26.00	4.2%	2.7%	Market 1.5pp longer
French Dynamite Mr J Dunne / E McNamara	21.00	4.2%	3.4%	Market 0.9pp longer
Spread Boss Ted Brian Hayes / W P Mullins	21.00	4.2%	3.4%	Market 0.9pp longer
Jesse Evans Donagh Meyler / N Meade	34.00	4.1%	2.1%	Market 2.0pp longer
Ol Man Dingle Michael Kenneally / E Griffin	17.00	3.7%	4.1%	In line with market
Meet And Greet Reserve 1 / O McKiernan	—	3.6%	0.0%	In line with market

These are the model's estimated win chances, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so treat it as an independent second opinion for understanding the race. See how accurate it is →

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Wed, 23 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

The model rates Doctor Ken its most likely winner, while the market has King Alexander shortest. The card above sets the model's estimated chance for each runner beside the chance implied by the market, and the gap between the two columns is the only thing the Lab claims to measure; it says which horse the model rates highest and nothing about what to do with that. The race is run over 2m7f180y, on ground declared as Good, with 21 priced runners. The course itself is covered in the Listowel guide.

Where the model disagrees with the market

The widest gap between the model's estimate and the market's price on this card is in the Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) at Kempton Park (16:55), where the model gives Pure Concept a smaller chance than the price implies. The race was chosen by the size of that gap and by nothing else.

Stablebet model (estimated win chances)

Kempton Park 16:55 · Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · Class 4 · 1m

Full output →

The model rates Pure Concept its most likely winner at 15%, ahead of There Goes My Hero (13%) and Notimetotakeoff (12%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Pure Concept S M Levey / R Hannon	1.44	14.5%	58.2%	Market 43.7pp shorter
There Goes My Hero J Mitchell / Kieran Burke	51.00	13.4%	1.7%	Market 11.7pp longer
Notimetotakeoff Callum Shepherd / C Johnston	26.00	12.0%	3.2%	Market 8.8pp longer
Renascent Finley Marsh / R Hughes	26.00	10.7%	3.2%	Market 7.5pp longer
Beryozka Jason Watson / A M Balding	4.00	10.6%	21.0%	Market 10.4pp shorter
Cashinoroyale P Cosgrave / George Baker	17.00	10.3%	4.9%	Market 5.3pp longer
Perfect Love Alistair Rawlinson / M Appleby	21.00	10.1%	4.0%	Market 6.1pp longer
Sueboys S Donohoe / Ollie Sangster	67.00	10.0%	1.3%	Market 8.8pp longer
Cinq Coins Joe Leavy / R A Teal	34.00	8.3%	2.5%	Market 5.9pp longer

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Wed, 23 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

A gap is a difference of opinion, and a difference of opinion is all it is: the wide ones tend to fall on runners the model has the least evidence about, as often as on a horse the market has overlooked. The left column is the model's estimated chance, the right is the chance the price implies, and the track record shows how often the model's side of the argument has been right once every pick is settled at starting price.

What the card costs

Every price on the card carries the bookmaker's margin: add up the chances the prices imply and the total comes to more than a whole field, and the excess is what the book keeps whichever horse wins. The table below is the latest published margin for each book the Lab tracks. It is compiled from the previous evening's prices, so it describes the card as it was sold then rather than the morning's board, and the order of the table is a measurement, never a recommendation.

Bookmaker	Races	Overround	Takeout
1 SmarketsSBK	650	15.73%	13.59%
2 BetTom	567	23.46%	19.00%
3 Bet365	826	23.91%	19.30%
4 LiveScore Bet shared feed	655	24.46%	19.65%
= Virgin Bet shared feed	652	24.51%	19.69%
6 William Hill	854	25.58%	20.37%
7 Unibet	851	26.76%	21.11%
8 Quinn Bet	841	27.01%	21.26%
= 7Bet	698	27.05%	21.29%
= Hollywood Bets	830	27.08%	21.31%
11 Betfred	806	27.35%	21.48%
= Paddy Power	880	27.39%	21.50%
= 10 Bet	793	27.53%	21.59%
14 Coral shared feed	883	28.01%	21.88%
= Ladbrokes shared feed	883	28.05%	21.90%
= Star Sports	882	28.16%	21.97%
17 Midnite	858	28.82%	22.37%
= Boyle Sports	873	29.01%	22.49%
19 Bet Victor shared feed	624	29.68%	22.88%
= Betano shared feed	622	29.83%	22.97%
= Dragon Bet	884	29.95%	23.05%
= BetWright	884	29.99%	23.07%
23 Betfair Sportsbook	879	30.28%	23.24%
24 BresBet	217	32.04%	24.27%
25 BetMGM	884	32.64%	24.61%

First pre-race book of each day, 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-22, across 886 races every listed book priced in full. Exchanges and spread firms are excluded: they do not quote comparable win odds. Overround is how far past a fair book the prices sit; takeout is the share of stakes the book keeps. On 25 days of data, books marked = are level with the one above rather than behind it. Books marked "shared feed" are one half of a pair that does not price independently, so there are fewer independent books here than rows.

The margin is the reason the Lab's tested strategies lose over time even when a pick is sound; what betting costs has the working, and the Tipster League shows what it does to the AI tipsters over a season.

Elsewhere in the Lab: Is Betting on Horses Just a Mug's Game?.

Common questions

Which meetings race on Wednesday 23 September 2026?

Listowel in Ireland, and Goodwood, Redcar, Perth and Kempton Park in Britain. Every card is on the racecards page with the model's estimated chance beside each runner, and the first race is at Goodwood at 13:30.

When are the model's estimates published?

Each morning before the first race, from the declared runners, and they are not changed after the off. A card labels itself a pre-race estimate once its race has run.

What does the model's chance mean?

The model's own estimate of how likely each runner is to win, set beside the chance the market price implies. It is an opinion with a published record, not a tip, and the track record is where that record lives.

Why is a horse missing from a card?

Either it was withdrawn after the estimates were made, or the race was one the model did not price. The horse tracker follows any runner on the card to its next entry.

How are the AI tipsters doing?

The Tipster League settles every AI pick at starting price and publishes the running total, losses included.

A word on all of this

None of the above is a tip, and no system the Lab has tested has made money over the whole record. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, BeGambleAware has free, confidential help.

Every figure on this page renders live from our published feeds and nothing here is a tip. For whether the model holds any edge, see our track record. 18+, please bet responsibly.