Market movers, 24 October 2026

The market for Saturday 24 October 2026 has moved since the morning show. The market has seen significant movement since the morning show, with money coming for some and against others across Doncaster and Southwell; Mehmar is the biggest steamer, while Jeepers Fortune has drifted sharply. Of the day's 31 races, 26 were still to be run when the opening show was set against the morning market, the next of them the William Hill Remembering Sue Wright Prospect Stakes (Registered As Doncaster Stakes) (Listed) at 14:05 at Doncaster, and the moves below are drawn from those races alone.

The morning market is the price the day's predictions recorded for each runner before the first show; the opening show is the middle bookmaker price in the Lab's first snapshot of the day, exchanges left out. A steamer is a runner whose price has shortened between the two, a drifter one whose price has lengthened, and a move is a description of the market's opinion, never advice.

Every runner, with the model's estimated chance beside the price, is on the racecards page.

Steamers: Mehmar at Southwell

The biggest shorteners have all moved sharply since the morning market, largest first: Mehmar has shortened for the Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap at 20:30 at Southwell, Love You More has shortened for the AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap at 19:00 at Southwell and The Other Mozzie has shortened for the luckytiger.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Nuts Well Handicap Chase at 16:25 at Kelso. The card below is the race Mehmar runs in, the biggest single move on the day, with the model's estimated chance for each runner beside the chance the morning market implied.

Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)

Southwell 20:30 · Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap · Class 6 · 6f16y

Latest output →

Pre-race estimate. Published 24 October 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.

The model rated Edmond Halley its most likely winner at 14%, ahead of Uncle Sam (13%) and Due Date (10%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Edmond Halley Jack Callan / E Bethell	6.00	13.9%	13.0%	Market 0.9pp longer
Uncle Sam Callum Rodriguez / R Craggs	5.50	12.9%	14.2%	Market 1.3pp shorter
Due Date Rob Hornby / C Wallis	8.00	9.7%	9.8%	In line with market
Dragon God Jack Dace / Jack Morland	13.00	9.7%	6.0%	Market 3.7pp longer
Havana Joy Daniel Muscutt / C Hills	21.00	9.2%	3.7%	Market 5.5pp longer
Mount Ruapehu Zak Wheatley / I Jardine	11.00	7.5%	7.1%	In line with market
Age Of Time K Stott / A W Carroll	11.00	7.4%	7.1%	In line with market
Piperstown Oliver Stammers / K Frost	11.00	5.5%	7.1%	Market 1.6pp shorter
Papa Don't Preach Matthew Slater / K Frost	15.00	4.9%	5.2%	In line with market
Montpellier Green Ryan Kavanagh / Ian Williams	11.00	4.8%	7.1%	Market 2.3pp shorter
Dr Ali Jonny Peate / J R Jenkins	15.00	4.2%	5.2%	Market 1.0pp shorter
He's An Angel William Pyle / K Frost	11.00	4.0%	7.1%	Market 3.1pp shorter
Mehmar Callum Shepherd / Jack Jones	15.00	3.4%	5.2%	Market 1.8pp shorter
Addictive Georgia Dobie / Craig Benton	34.00	3.0%	2.3%	Market 0.7pp longer

These were the model's estimated win chances going into the race, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so read it as an independent second opinion on the race. See how accurate it is →

Model: ensemble-v1.1 · Generated Sat, 24 Oct 2026The Lab Methodology

For the feature, the market's support for Mehmar is a notable divergence from the model's preference for Edmond Halley. The model's estimate was made before the first show and does not move with the market, so the gap between its column and a steamer's price is a difference of opinion, not a verdict on either; the track record settles every one of its picks at starting price. The course itself is covered in the Southwell guide.

Drifters: Jeepers Fortune at Southwell

The biggest lengtheners have all moved sharply since the morning market, largest first: Jeepers Fortune has drifted for the AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) at 18:00 at Southwell, The Honey Thief has drifted for the AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes at 20:00 at Southwell and Janora has drifted for the All-Weather Championship Is Back Handicap at 19:30 at Southwell. The card below is the race Jeepers Fortune runs in, the biggest single drift on the day, with the model's estimated chance beside the morning market's.

Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)

Southwell 18:00 · AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · Class 3 · 1m13y

Latest output →

Pre-race estimate. Published 24 October 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.

The model rated Ring Of Music its most likely winner at 22%, ahead of Night Mile (13%) and Naval Empire (12%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Ring Of Music Callum Rodriguez / H Palmer	3.75	21.6%	22.0%	In line with market
Night Mile Daniel Muscutt / Owen Burrows	7.00	13.1%	11.8%	Market 1.3pp longer
Naval Empire Dylan Hogan / S C Williams	15.00	12.4%	5.5%	Market 6.9pp longer
National Anthem R Havlin / J & T Gosden	5.00	11.1%	16.5%	Market 5.4pp shorter
Chertsey L Morris / Sir Mark Prescott	26.00	10.3%	3.2%	Market 7.2pp longer
Steel Nation Billy Loughnane / G Boughey	5.00	9.7%	16.5%	Market 6.8pp shorter
Political Resident Callum Hutchinson / A M Balding	11.00	8.5%	7.5%	Market 1.0pp longer
Quite Simple J Mitchell / Simon Crisford	9.00	7.3%	9.2%	Market 1.9pp shorter
Jeepers Fortune Pierre-Louis Jamin / Harry Eustace	11.00	3.2%	7.5%	Market 4.3pp shorter
Splintered Rob Hornby / J G Portman	151.00	2.9%	0.5%	Market 2.4pp longer

Model: ensemble-v1.1 · Generated Sat, 24 Oct 2026The Lab Methodology

A drift is the market's opinion changing, and the reasons range from a non-runner or a change of going to a stable's own confidence, none of which the price itself explains. The model does not react to it: its estimate is the same one the morning card carried, which is why a drifter can sit above the market in the left column and below it in the right. The horse tracker follows any runner on the card to its next entry, whichever way its price went.

The cost of backing early

Taking a price before the off means taking the bookmaker's margin at that moment, and the margin is paid whichever way the price then moves: a steamer rewards the early price and a drifter punishes it, but the excess the book keeps over a whole field is built into both. The table below is the latest published margin for each book the Lab tracks, compiled from the previous evening's prices, so it describes the card as it was sold then rather than the lunchtime board.

Bookmaker	Races	Overround	Takeout
1 SmarketsSBK	1844	15.50%	13.42%
2 BetTom	1674	23.61%	19.10%
3 Bet365	2337	23.99%	19.35%
= LiveScore Bet shared feed	1702	24.19%	19.48%
= Virgin Bet shared feed	1705	24.21%	19.49%
6 William Hill	2415	25.81%	20.52%
7 Unibet	2373	26.34%	20.85%
8 Quinn Bet	2395	26.97%	21.24%
= 7Bet	1869	26.98%	21.25%
= Betfred	2297	27.04%	21.28%
= Hollywood Bets	2414	27.04%	21.28%
12 Paddy Power	2453	27.34%	21.47%
13 10 Bet	2219	27.90%	21.81%
= Star Sports	2470	28.01%	21.88%
15 Midnite	2419	28.62%	22.25%
16 Coral shared feed	2466	28.97%	22.46%
= Ladbrokes shared feed	2466	29.00%	22.48%
= Boyle Sports	2456	29.09%	22.53%
19 Bet Victor shared feed	1738	29.73%	22.92%
= Betano shared feed	1737	29.81%	22.97%
21 Betfair Sportsbook	2453	30.23%	23.21%
22 Dragon Bet	2479	30.90%	23.61%
= BetWright	2479	30.92%	23.62%
24 BresBet	217	32.04%	24.27%
25 BetMGM	2481	34.08%	25.42%

First pre-race book of each day, 2026-08-27 to 2026-11-03, across 2483 races every listed book priced in full. Exchanges and spread firms are excluded: they do not quote comparable win odds. Overround is how far past a fair book the prices sit; takeout is the share of stakes the book keeps. On 67 days of data, books marked = are level with the one above rather than behind it. Books marked "shared feed" are one half of a pair that does not price independently, so there are fewer independent books here than rows.

What betting costs has the working behind the margin, and the Tipster League shows what taking a price every day does to the AI tipsters over a season, losses included.

Elsewhere in the Lab: Why Is One Meeting Dearer to Bet At Than Another?.

Common questions

Which meetings race on Saturday 24 October 2026?

Doncaster, Cheltenham, Kelso and Southwell in Britain. Every card is on the racecards page with the model's estimated chance beside each runner, and all of them still have racing to come.

What is a steamer?

A runner whose price has shortened since an earlier market, here the morning market recorded in the predictions file. The opposite move, a price lengthening, makes a drifter.

Does a steamer win more often?

The Lab makes no such claim. A shortening price is the market's opinion strengthening, and the track record settles the model's own picks at starting price rather than at the price they opened at, so the answer for any system is a running figure over every day, not a rule.

Where do the prices come from?

From the Lab's own snapshot of the bookmakers' boards, taken in the late morning and compared with the morning market the model priced against. Exchange prices carry commission and are left out.

How are the AI tipsters doing?

The Tipster League settles every AI pick at starting price and publishes the running total, losses included.

A word on all of this

None of the above is a tip, and no system the Lab has tested has made money over the whole record. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, BeGambleAware has free, confidential help.

Every figure on this page renders live from our published feeds and nothing here is a tip. For whether the model holds any edge, see our track record. 18+, please bet responsibly.