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Professor Furlong and Pascal at the AI Lab
THE AI LAB
THE AI LAB DAILY · THE MARKET ON WEDNESDAY, 28 OCTOBER 2026

Wednesday 28 October 2026 steamers and drifters: Tazman Dan at Huntingdon

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This is the market piece for Wednesday, 28 October 2026, kept as an archive. The latest market pieces are here.

The market for Wednesday 28 October 2026 has moved since the morning show. The market has seen significant movement since the morning show, with money coming for Tazman Dan at Huntingdon and Indiza drifting sharply at the same course. Of the day's 38 races, 32 were still to be run when the opening show was set against the morning market, the next of them the Wollens Full Spectrum Law Handicap Hurdle at 13:51 at Newton Abbot, and the moves below are drawn from those races alone.

The morning market is the price the day's predictions recorded for each runner before the first show; the opening show is the middle bookmaker price in the Lab's first snapshot of the day, exchanges left out. A steamer is a runner whose price has shortened between the two, a drifter one whose price has lengthened, and a move is a description of the market's opinion, never advice.

Every runner, with the model's estimated chance beside the price, is on the racecards page.

Steamers: Tazman Dan at Huntingdon

The biggest shorteners have all moved sharply since the morning market, largest first: Tazman Dan has shortened for the Hospitality At Huntingdon Racecourse Novices' Handicap Hurdle at 15:06 at Huntingdon, Sioux Falls has shortened for the Passage House Hotel South Devon Gateway Handicap Hurdle at 14:51 at Newton Abbot and Star Rose has shortened for the EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes at 14:46 at Nottingham. The card below is the race Tazman Dan runs in, the biggest single move on the day, with the model's estimated chance for each runner beside the chance the morning market implied.

Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)

Huntingdon 15:06 · Hospitality At Huntingdon Racecourse Novices' Handicap Hurdle · Class 5 · 1m7f171y

Latest output →

Pre-race estimate. Published 28 October 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.

The model rated Zaraquelle its most likely winner at 18%, ahead of Calibos (14%) and Knighton (13%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

HorseSPModel chanceMarketvs Market
Zaraquelle
J J Burke / James Owen
3.75
17.8%
22.5%Market 4.7pp shorter
Calibos
G Sheehan / Miss J S Davis
5.00
13.9%
16.9%Market 3.0pp shorter
Knighton
Jack Tudor / O Greenall & J Guerriero
7.00
13.4%
12.0%Market 1.4pp longer
Thepassingcyclone
Harry Cobden / D J S Ffrench Davis
11.00
12.4%
7.7%Market 4.8pp longer
Tazman Dan
Charlie Hammond / S Edmunds
17.00
12.3%
5.0%Market 7.4pp longer
Dunstall Star
Mr Harry O'Dwyer / T R George
6.00
10.5%
14.1%Market 3.6pp shorter
Northern Rose
Joe Anderson / G Hanmer
9.00
8.6%
9.4%Market 0.8pp shorter
No Mean Feat
Harry Reed / S Hodgson
9.00
6.9%
9.4%Market 2.5pp shorter
Papa Oscar
Dylan Johnston / C Hobson
26.00
4.2%
3.2%Market 1.0pp longer

These were the model's estimated win chances going into the race, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so read it as an independent second opinion on the race. See how accurate it is →

Model: ensemble-v1.1 · Generated Wed, 28 Oct 2026The LabMethodology

The model rates Zaraquelle its most likely winner, and the market has come for Tazman Dan since the opening show. The model's estimate was made before the first show and does not move with the market, so the gap between its column and a steamer's price is a difference of opinion, not a verdict on either; the track record settles every one of its picks at starting price. The course itself is covered in the Huntingdon guide.

Drifters: Indiza at Huntingdon

The biggest lengtheners have all moved sharply since the morning market, largest first: Indiza has drifted for the Advertise At Huntingdon Racecourse Open NH Flat Race at 16:06 at Huntingdon, Sopran Thor has drifted for the Christmas Parties 2026 At Huntingdon Racecourse Handicap Chase at 15:36 at Huntingdon and Shielas Well has drifted for the Bet 20 Pound Get 20 Pound With Unibet Apprentice Handicap at 16:15 at Kempton Park. The card below is the race Indiza runs in, the biggest single drift on the day, with the model's estimated chance beside the morning market's.

Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)

Huntingdon 16:06 · Advertise At Huntingdon Racecourse Open NH Flat Race · Class 5 · 1m7f171y

Latest output →

Pre-race estimate. Published 28 October 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.

The model rated Persian Art its most likely winner at 28%, ahead of Seedling (15%) and All Good To Go (15%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

HorseSPModel chanceMarketvs Market
Persian Art
G Sheehan / Miss H C Knight
3.75
27.6%
22.6%Market 5.0pp longer
Seedling
David Noonan / Ben Clarke
4.50
15.4%
18.8%Market 3.3pp shorter
All Good To Go
Toby McCain-Mitchell / A M Hales
34.00
15.2%
2.5%Market 12.8pp longer
Indiza
Charlie Hammond / S Edmunds
17.00
13.7%
5.0%Market 8.7pp longer
Arm's Of An Angel
Kielan Woods / D Killahena & G McPherson
6.00
7.9%
14.1%Market 6.2pp shorter
Mossy Moon
Tom Cannon / A King
5.00
6.8%
16.9%Market 10.1pp shorter
Kauto Line
Paul O'Brien / Harry Derham
7.00
6.6%
12.1%Market 5.5pp shorter
Tommy Tipa
Jack Tudor / S Bradstock
15.00
5.1%
5.6%Market 0.6pp shorter
Aunt Gallie
Nick Slatter / D Killahena & G McPherson
34.00
1.8%
2.5%Market 0.7pp shorter

These were the model's estimated win chances going into the race, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so read it as an independent second opinion on the race. See how accurate it is →

Model: ensemble-v1.1 · Generated Wed, 28 Oct 2026The LabMethodology

A drift is the market's opinion changing, and the reasons range from a non-runner or a change of going to a stable's own confidence, none of which the price itself explains. The model does not react to it: its estimate is the same one the morning card carried, which is why a drifter can sit above the market in the left column and below it in the right. The horse tracker follows any runner on the card to its next entry, whichever way its price went.

The cost of backing early

Taking a price before the off means taking the bookmaker's margin at that moment, and the margin is paid whichever way the price then moves: a steamer rewards the early price and a drifter punishes it, but the excess the book keeps over a whole field is built into both. The table below is the latest published margin for each book the Lab tracks, compiled from the previous evening's prices, so it describes the card as it was sold then rather than the lunchtime board.

BookmakerRacesOverroundTakeout
1 SmarketsSBK184415.50%13.42%
2 BetTom167423.61%19.10%
3 Bet365233723.99%19.35%
= LiveScore Bet shared feed170224.19%19.48%
= Virgin Bet shared feed170524.21%19.49%
6 William Hill241525.81%20.52%
7 Unibet237326.34%20.85%
8 Quinn Bet239526.97%21.24%
= 7Bet186926.98%21.25%
= Betfred229727.04%21.28%
= Hollywood Bets241427.04%21.28%
12 Paddy Power245327.34%21.47%
13 10 Bet221927.90%21.81%
= Star Sports247028.01%21.88%
15 Midnite241928.62%22.25%
16 Coral shared feed246628.97%22.46%
= Ladbrokes shared feed246629.00%22.48%
= Boyle Sports245629.09%22.53%
19 Bet Victor shared feed173829.73%22.92%
= Betano shared feed173729.81%22.97%
21 Betfair Sportsbook245330.23%23.21%
22 Dragon Bet247930.90%23.61%
= BetWright247930.92%23.62%
24 BresBet21732.04%24.27%
25 BetMGM248134.08%25.42%

First pre-race book of each day, 2026-08-27 to 2026-11-03, across 2483 races every listed book priced in full. Exchanges and spread firms are excluded: they do not quote comparable win odds. Overround is how far past a fair book the prices sit; takeout is the share of stakes the book keeps. On 67 days of data, books marked = are level with the one above rather than behind it. Books marked "shared feed" are one half of a pair that does not price independently, so there are fewer independent books here than rows.

What betting costs has the working behind the margin, and the Tipster League shows what taking a price every day does to the AI tipsters over a season, losses included.

Elsewhere in the Lab: If Nothing Works, How Am I Meant to Pick a Horse?.

Common questions

Which meetings race on Wednesday 28 October 2026?

Dundalk in Ireland, and Nottingham, Huntingdon, Newton Abbot and Kempton Park in Britain. Every card is on the racecards page with the model's estimated chance beside each runner, and all of them still have racing to come.

What is a steamer?

A runner whose price has shortened since an earlier market, here the morning market recorded in the predictions file. The opposite move, a price lengthening, makes a drifter.

Does a steamer win more often?

The Lab makes no such claim. A shortening price is the market's opinion strengthening, and the track record settles the model's own picks at starting price rather than at the price they opened at, so the answer for any system is a running figure over every day, not a rule.

Where do the prices come from?

From the Lab's own snapshot of the bookmakers' boards, taken in the late morning and compared with the morning market the model priced against. Exchange prices carry commission and are left out.

How are the AI tipsters doing?

The Tipster League settles every AI pick at starting price and publishes the running total, losses included.

A word on all of this

None of the above is a tip, and no system the Lab has tested has made money over the whole record. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, BeGambleAware has free, confidential help.

Every figure on this page renders live from our published feeds and nothing here is a tip. For whether the model holds any edge, see our track record. 18+, please bet responsibly.

Previous market pieces

Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Tuesday 27 October 2026 steamers and drifters: Zoulu Warrior at Wolverhampton
The steamers and drifters since the morning market on 27 October 2026, the model's chance beside the opening show, and what backing early costs.
Monday, 26 October 2026
Monday 26 October 2026 steamers and drifters: Honey Dale at Southwell
The steamers and drifters since the morning market on 26 October 2026, the model's chance beside the opening show, and what backing early costs.
Sunday, 25 October 2026
Sunday 25 October 2026 steamers and drifters: Socrates Smiled at Wexford
The steamers and drifters since the morning market on 25 October 2026, the model's chance beside the opening show, and what backing early costs.
Saturday, 24 October 2026
Saturday 24 October 2026 steamers and drifters: Mehmar at Southwell
The steamers and drifters since the morning market on 24 October 2026, the model's chance beside the opening show, and what backing early costs.
Friday, 23 October 2026
Friday 23 October 2026 steamers and drifters: Intervention at Wolverhampton
The steamers and drifters since the morning market on 23 October 2026, the model's chance beside the opening show, and what backing early costs.
Thursday, 22 October 2026
Thursday 22 October 2026 steamers and drifters: Stanley Spencer at Southwell
The steamers and drifters since the morning market on 22 October 2026, the model's chance beside the opening show, and what backing early costs.
Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Wednesday 21 October 2026 steamers and drifters: Omissions at Navan
The steamers and drifters since the morning market on 21 October 2026, the model's chance beside the opening show, and what backing early costs.