Racing card, 24 September 2026: Pontefract

The card for Thursday 24 September 2026 runs to five meetings and 37 races: Listowel in Ireland, and Newmarket, Pontefract, Perth and Southwell in Britain. The first race is at Newmarket at 13:15 and the last is at Southwell at 20:30. Southwell has the longest card of the day, and the biggest field of it goes to post at Listowel. The feature is the Celebrating The Life Of Bobby Howard EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes at Pontefract, due off at 14:42, and it has the next section to itself. Every runner, with the model's estimated chance beside the market's price, is on the racecards page, and the model's view of the whole day is on the day's predictions; the card was written before the first race, so nothing on it is a result.

The feature: the Celebrating The Life Of Bobby Howard EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes at Pontefract

Stablebet model (estimated win chances)

Pontefract 14:42 · Celebrating The Life Of Bobby Howard EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes · Class 4 · 6f

Full output →

The model rates From Afar its most likely winner at 17%, ahead of Alice Inher Palace (13%) and Wedyan (12%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
From Afar D Tudhope / W J Haggas	8.00	16.5%	10.5%	Market 6.0pp longer
Alice Inher Palace Gina Mangan / C N Kellett	67.00	13.4%	1.3%	Market 12.1pp longer
Wedyan Connor Beasley / J Tate	17.00	11.9%	5.0%	Market 7.0pp longer
Maigue Magic Cam Hardie / R A Fahey	11.00	10.8%	7.6%	Market 3.1pp longer
Casting Coach Callum Rodriguez / Ollie Sangster	8.50	10.7%	9.9%	Market 0.8pp longer
Sayidah Bahra T Eaves / K A Ryan	3.75	10.0%	22.4%	Market 12.4pp shorter
Iris Olivia Jason Hart / K P De Foy	3.50	9.4%	24.0%	Market 14.6pp shorter
Oxido Mikey Sheehy / S Waugh	21.00	8.9%	4.0%	Market 4.9pp longer
Bling O J Orr / H Palmer	5.50	8.3%	15.3%	Market 7.0pp shorter

These are the model's estimated win chances, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so treat it as an independent second opinion for understanding the race. See how accurate it is →

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Thu, 24 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

The model rates From Afar its most likely winner, while the market has Iris Olivia shortest. The card above sets the model's estimated chance for each runner beside the chance implied by the market, and the gap between the two columns is the only thing the Lab claims to measure; it says which horse the model rates highest and nothing about what to do with that. The race is run over 6f, on ground declared as Good, with nine priced runners. The course itself is covered in the Pontefract guide.

Where the model disagrees with the market

The widest gap between the model's estimate and the market's price on this card is in the Kevin McManus Bookmaker Flat Race at Listowel (17:25), where the model gives Berkstar a smaller chance than the price implies. The race was chosen by the size of that gap and by nothing else.

Stablebet model (estimated win chances)

Listowel 17:25 · Kevin McManus Bookmaker Flat Race · 2m

Full output →

The model rates Berkstar its most likely winner at 14%, ahead of Bravemans Call (13%) and Veales Cross (13%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Berkstar Mr P W Mullins / W P Mullins	1.91	14.3%	42.3%	Market 28.0pp shorter
Bravemans Call Mr J Dunne / E McCarthy	5.50	13.0%	14.7%	Market 1.7pp shorter
Veales Cross Mr D O'Connor / J Queally	7.50	12.8%	10.8%	Market 2.0pp longer
Days Go By Mr R W Barron / E McNamara	11.00	10.7%	7.3%	Market 3.4pp longer
Sierrascope Mr J L Gleeson / H De Bromhead	6.50	10.3%	12.4%	Market 2.1pp shorter
Paulin Mr A P Ryan / Jack Doyle	15.00	10.2%	5.4%	Market 4.8pp longer
Catalunya Mr J C Barry / D Leahy	34.00	10.0%	2.4%	Market 7.6pp longer
Monegasque Mr J R Martin / A Leahy	34.00	10.0%	2.4%	Market 7.6pp longer
Real Lark Mr H C Swan / J P Ryan	34.00	8.9%	2.4%	Market 6.5pp longer

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Thu, 24 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

A gap is a difference of opinion, and a difference of opinion is all it is: the wide ones tend to fall on runners the model has the least evidence about, as often as on a horse the market has overlooked. The left column is the model's estimated chance, the right is the chance the price implies, and the track record shows how often the model's side of the argument has been right once every pick is settled at starting price.

What the card costs

Every price on the card carries the bookmaker's margin: add up the chances the prices imply and the total comes to more than a whole field, and the excess is what the book keeps whichever horse wins. The table below is the latest published margin for each book the Lab tracks. It is compiled from the previous evening's prices, so it describes the card as it was sold then rather than the morning's board, and the order of the table is a measurement, never a recommendation.

Bookmaker	Races	Overround	Takeout
1 SmarketsSBK	677	15.75%	13.61%
2 BetTom	590	23.51%	19.03%
3 Bet365	859	23.92%	19.30%
4 LiveScore Bet shared feed	680	24.52%	19.69%
= Virgin Bet shared feed	678	24.63%	19.76%
6 William Hill	888	25.58%	20.37%
7 Unibet	886	26.78%	21.12%
8 Quinn Bet	875	27.04%	21.28%
= 7Bet	726	27.05%	21.29%
= Hollywood Bets	865	27.07%	21.30%
11 Betfred	840	27.39%	21.50%
= Paddy Power	914	27.44%	21.53%
= 10 Bet	824	27.60%	21.63%
14 Coral shared feed	918	28.11%	21.94%
= Ladbrokes shared feed	918	28.15%	21.97%
= Star Sports	917	28.17%	21.98%
17 Midnite	892	28.78%	22.35%
18 Boyle Sports	908	29.08%	22.53%
19 Bet Victor shared feed	647	29.68%	22.89%
= Betano shared feed	645	29.83%	22.97%
= Dragon Bet	919	29.96%	23.05%
= BetWright	919	30.01%	23.08%
23 Betfair Sportsbook	913	30.31%	23.26%
24 BresBet	217	32.04%	24.27%
25 BetMGM	919	32.76%	24.67%

First pre-race book of each day, 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-23, across 921 races every listed book priced in full. Exchanges and spread firms are excluded: they do not quote comparable win odds. Overround is how far past a fair book the prices sit; takeout is the share of stakes the book keeps. On 26 days of data, books marked = are level with the one above rather than behind it. Books marked "shared feed" are one half of a pair that does not price independently, so there are fewer independent books here than rows.

The margin is the reason the Lab's tested strategies lose over time even when a pick is sound; what betting costs has the working, and the Tipster League shows what it does to the AI tipsters over a season.

Elsewhere in the Lab: Is Each-Way Actually the Safer Bet?.

Common questions

Which meetings race on Thursday 24 September 2026?

Listowel in Ireland, and Newmarket, Pontefract, Perth and Southwell in Britain. Every card is on the racecards page with the model's estimated chance beside each runner, and the first race is at Newmarket at 13:15.

When are the model's estimates published?

Each morning before the first race, from the declared runners, and they are not changed after the off. A card labels itself a pre-race estimate once its race has run.

What does the model's chance mean?

The model's own estimate of how likely each runner is to win, set beside the chance the market price implies. It is an opinion with a published record, not a tip, and the track record is where that record lives.

Why is a horse missing from a card?

Either it was withdrawn after the estimates were made, or the race was one the model did not price. The horse tracker follows any runner on the card to its next entry.

How are the AI tipsters doing?

The Tipster League settles every AI pick at starting price and publishes the running total, losses included.

A word on all of this

None of the above is a tip, and no system the Lab has tested has made money over the whole record. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, BeGambleAware has free, confidential help.

Every figure on this page renders live from our published feeds and nothing here is a tip. For whether the model holds any edge, see our track record. 18+, please bet responsibly.