Racing card, 1 October 2026: Nottingham

The card for Thursday 1 October 2026 runs to six meetings and 44 races: Bellewstown and Clonmel in Ireland, and Nottingham, Salisbury, Southwell and Newcastle in Britain. The first race is at Bellewstown at 13:00 and the last is at Newcastle at 20:30. Bellewstown has the longest card of the day, and the biggest field of it goes to post at Clonmel. The feature is the EBF Slip Anchor Maiden Stakes at Nottingham, due off at 13:23, and it has the next section to itself. Every runner, with the model's estimated chance beside the market's price, is on the racecards page, and the model's view of the whole day is on the day's predictions; the card was written before the first race, so nothing on it is a result.

The feature: the EBF Slip Anchor Maiden Stakes at Nottingham

Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)

Nottingham 13:23 · EBF Slip Anchor Maiden Stakes · Class 4 · 5f8y

Latest output →

Pre-race estimate. Published 1 October 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.

The model rated Caelum its most likely winner at 27%, ahead of Runaway Lucy (22%) and Viking Barbie (21%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Caelum K Stott / K A Ryan	3.75	26.8%	24.1%	Market 2.7pp longer
Runaway Lucy D Swift / B Ellison	51.00	21.5%	1.8%	Market 19.8pp longer
Viking Barbie Callum Rodriguez / Ollie Sangster	4.00	21.4%	22.6%	Market 1.2pp shorter
Crimson Blaze W Buick / R Hughes	4.50	15.6%	20.1%	Market 4.5pp shorter
Lady Branksome Callum Shepherd / M L W Bell	2.88	14.7%	31.4%	Market 16.7pp shorter

These were the model's estimated win chances going into the race, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so read it as an independent second opinion on the race. See how accurate it is →

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Thu, 01 Oct 2026The Lab Methodology

The model rates Caelum its most likely winner, while the market has Lady Branksome shortest. The card above sets the model's estimated chance for each runner beside the chance implied by the market, and the gap between the two columns is the only thing the Lab claims to measure; it says which horse the model rates highest and nothing about what to do with that. The race is run over 5f8y, on ground declared as Good (Good to Firm in places), with five priced runners. The course itself is covered in the Nottingham guide.

Where the model disagrees with the market

The widest gap between the model's estimate and the market's price on this card is in the EBF Oh So Sharp Maiden Fillies' Stakes at Nottingham (15:08), where the model gives Thi Qar a smaller chance than the price implies. The race was chosen by the size of that gap and by nothing else.

Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)

Nottingham 15:08 · EBF Oh So Sharp Maiden Fillies' Stakes · Class 3 · 1m75y

Latest output →

Pre-race estimate. Published 1 October 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.

The model rated Thi Qar its most likely winner at 17%, ahead of Princess Lottie (16%) and Sweet Katarina (15%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Thi Qar W Buick / J & T Gosden	1.91	17.4%	45.6%	Market 28.1pp shorter
Princess Lottie K Stott / P J McBride	5.50	16.1%	15.8%	In line with market
Sweet Katarina David Probert / W Muir & C Grassick	34.00	14.6%	2.6%	Market 12.1pp longer
Lavender Bay Daniel Muscutt / J R Fanshawe	15.00	14.2%	5.8%	Market 8.4pp longer
Bejewel S M Levey / T Ward	26.00	14.1%	3.4%	Market 10.8pp longer
Avebury Ring James Doyle / R M Beckett	7.00	14.0%	12.4%	Market 1.6pp longer
Empress Jingu Rob Hornby / A M Balding	6.00	9.5%	14.5%	Market 5.0pp shorter

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Thu, 01 Oct 2026The Lab Methodology

A gap is a difference of opinion, and a difference of opinion is all it is: the wide ones tend to fall on runners the model has the least evidence about, as often as on a horse the market has overlooked. The left column is the model's estimated chance, the right is the chance the price implies, and the track record shows how often the model's side of the argument has been right once every pick is settled at starting price.

What the card costs

Every price on the card carries the bookmaker's margin: add up the chances the prices imply and the total comes to more than a whole field, and the excess is what the book keeps whichever horse wins. The table below is the latest published margin for each book the Lab tracks. It is compiled from the previous evening's prices, so it describes the card as it was sold then rather than the morning's board, and the order of the table is a measurement, never a recommendation.

Bookmaker	Races	Overround	Takeout
1 SmarketsSBK	982	15.64%	13.52%
2 BetTom	872	23.34%	18.92%
3 Bet365	1256	24.11%	19.43%
= LiveScore Bet shared feed	960	24.31%	19.55%
= Virgin Bet shared feed	958	24.35%	19.58%
6 William Hill	1295	25.77%	20.49%
7 7Bet	1015	26.63%	21.03%
= Unibet	1290	26.76%	21.11%
9 Quinn Bet	1280	27.16%	21.36%
= Hollywood Bets	1277	27.21%	21.39%
11 Betfred	1220	27.48%	21.56%
= Paddy Power	1326	27.58%	21.62%
13 10 Bet	1205	27.85%	21.78%
14 Star Sports	1331	28.37%	22.10%
15 Coral shared feed	1332	28.85%	22.39%
= Midnite	1297	28.90%	22.42%
= Ladbrokes shared feed	1333	28.94%	22.44%
18 Boyle Sports	1323	29.19%	22.59%
= Bet Victor shared feed	924	29.41%	22.73%
= Betano shared feed	923	29.52%	22.79%
21 Dragon Bet	1335	30.11%	23.14%
= BetWright	1335	30.14%	23.16%
23 Betfair Sportsbook	1327	30.55%	23.40%
24 BresBet	217	32.04%	24.27%
25 BetMGM	1335	33.41%	25.04%

First pre-race book of each day, 2026-08-27 to 2026-10-04, across 1337 races every listed book priced in full. Exchanges and spread firms are excluded: they do not quote comparable win odds. Overround is how far past a fair book the prices sit; takeout is the share of stakes the book keeps. On 37 days of data, books marked = are level with the one above rather than behind it. Books marked "shared feed" are one half of a pair that does not price independently, so there are fewer independent books here than rows.

The margin is the reason the Lab's tested strategies lose over time even when a pick is sound; what betting costs has the working, and the Tipster League shows what it does to the AI tipsters over a season.

Elsewhere in the Lab: Overround and Takeout: What Is the Difference?.

Common questions

Which meetings race on Thursday 1 October 2026?

Bellewstown and Clonmel in Ireland, and Nottingham, Salisbury, Southwell and Newcastle in Britain. Every card is on the racecards page with the model's estimated chance beside each runner, and the first race is at Bellewstown at 13:00.

When are the model's estimates published?

Each morning before the first race, from the declared runners, and they are not changed after the off. A card labels itself a pre-race estimate once its race has run.

What does the model's chance mean?

The model's own estimate of how likely each runner is to win, set beside the chance the market price implies. It is an opinion with a published record, not a tip, and the track record is where that record lives.

Why is a horse missing from a card?

Either it was withdrawn after the estimates were made, or the race was one the model did not price. The horse tracker follows any runner on the card to its next entry.

How are the AI tipsters doing?

The Tipster League settles every AI pick at starting price and publishes the running total, losses included.

A word on all of this

None of the above is a tip, and no system the Lab has tested has made money over the whole record. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, BeGambleAware has free, confidential help.

Every figure on this page renders live from our published feeds and nothing here is a tip. For whether the model holds any edge, see our track record. 18+, please bet responsibly.