Racing card, 25 September 2026: Dundalk

The card for Friday 25 September 2026 runs to six meetings and 44 races: Listowel and Dundalk in Ireland, and Worcester, Newmarket, Haydock Park and Newcastle in Britain. The first race is at Worcester at 12:55 and the last is at Dundalk at 20:30. The six meetings offer a mixed bag of flat and jumps racing, with Newmarket providing the group racing and Dundalk the listed feature. The feature is the BAR 1 Betting Diamond Stakes (Listed) at Dundalk, due off at 19:30, and it has the next section to itself. Every runner, with the model's estimated chance beside the market's price, is on the racecards page, and the model's view of the whole day is on the day's predictions; the card was written before the first race, so nothing on it is a result.

The feature: the BAR 1 Betting Diamond Stakes (Listed) at Dundalk

Stablebet model (estimated win chances)

Dundalk 19:30 · BAR 1 Betting Diamond Stakes (Listed) · Class 1 · 1m2f150y

Full output →

The model rates Kilcrea Rock its most likely winner at 25%, ahead of Military Order (16%) and Spicy Margarita (15%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Kilcrea Rock J M Sheridan / J P O'Brien	21.00	25.0%	4.1%	Market 20.9pp longer
Military Order Billy Lee / C Appleby	2.25	16.2%	38.0%	Market 21.7pp shorter
Spicy Margarita Donagh O'Connor / Robson Aguiar	101.00	15.0%	0.9%	Market 14.1pp longer
Geryon Colin Keane / G M Lyons	2.50	12.0%	34.2%	Market 22.2pp shorter
Alla Stella Seamie Heffernan / Sir Mark Prescott	15.00	11.5%	5.7%	Market 5.8pp longer
Charles Fort Wayne Lordan / A P O'Brien	6.50	11.3%	13.2%	Market 1.8pp shorter
Nuit Ronan Whelan / H De Bromhead	21.00	9.1%	4.1%	Market 5.0pp longer

These are the model's estimated win chances, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so treat it as an independent second opinion for understanding the race. See how accurate it is →

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Fri, 25 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

Kilcrea Rock, trained by J P O'Brien and ridden by J M Sheridan, is the model's most likely winner in a field that also includes Military Order, Spicy Margarita, Geryon, Alla Stella, Charles Fort and Nuit. The card above sets the model's estimated chance for each runner beside the chance implied by the market, and the gap between the two columns is the only thing the Lab claims to measure; it says which horse the model rates highest and nothing about what to do with that. The race is run over 1m2f150y, on ground declared as Standard, with seven priced runners. The course itself is covered in the Dundalk guide.

Where the model disagrees with the market

The widest gap between the model's estimate and the market's price on this card is in the John J. Galvin Maiden Hurdle at Listowel (13:40), where the model gives Reaching High a smaller chance than the price implies. The race was chosen by the size of that gap and by nothing else.

Stablebet model (estimated win chances)

Listowel 13:40 · John J. Galvin Maiden Hurdle · 2m2f125y

Full output →

The model rates Confidence Within its most likely winner at 10%, ahead of Farney Bridge (8%) and Reaching High (7%). It reads as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Confidence Within Tiernan Power Roche / P J Rothwell	5.00	10.5%	12.6%	Market 2.1pp shorter
Farney Bridge Eoin Walsh / J M Burke	9.00	8.2%	7.0%	Market 1.2pp longer
Reaching High Paul Townend / W P Mullins	1.57	7.2%	39.9%	Market 32.7pp shorter
Midtown Manhattan Reserve 1 / H De Bromhead	7.50	5.7%	8.4%	Market 2.7pp shorter
Minnatrix Phillip Enright / E McCarthy	67.00	5.5%	0.9%	Market 4.6pp longer
Nothintodowithme Evan Nugent / B T Murphy	101.00	5.4%	0.6%	Market 4.8pp longer
Down After Dark Aidan Kelly / S Curling	101.00	5.3%	0.6%	Market 4.7pp longer
Man Down Niall Moore / D Duggan	101.00	5.3%	0.6%	Market 4.7pp longer
Ddakji Reserve 2 / Conor Houlihan	34.00	5.3%	1.8%	Market 3.4pp longer
Back Swath Daniel King / R Hackett	201.00	5.2%	0.3%	Market 4.9pp longer
Ladbroke Grove Mark Walsh / M Brassil	4.50	4.9%	13.9%	Market 9.1pp shorter
Higher Vision Liam Quinlan / R Hackett	51.00	4.8%	1.2%	Market 3.5pp longer
Outlaw Thief Shane Fitzgerald / P Kiely	101.00	4.7%	0.6%	Market 4.1pp longer
Menez Are Danny Gilligan / P J Gilligan	101.00	4.7%	0.6%	Market 4.1pp longer
Woodie Wiley Reserve 3 / Conor Houlihan	34.00	4.5%	1.8%	Market 2.7pp longer
Zambezi Moon J J Slevin / David Barry	21.00	4.5%	3.0%	Market 1.5pp longer
Jetaway Mountain Brian Hayes / Colm Murphy	21.00	4.2%	3.0%	Market 1.2pp longer
Ozark Daze Ricky Doyle / G O'Loughlin	21.00	4.2%	3.0%	Market 1.2pp longer

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Fri, 25 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

A gap is a difference of opinion, and a difference of opinion is all it is: the wide ones tend to fall on runners the model has the least evidence about, as often as on a horse the market has overlooked. The left column is the model's estimated chance, the right is the chance the price implies, and the track record shows how often the model's side of the argument has been right once every pick is settled at starting price.

What the card costs

Every price on the card carries the bookmaker's margin: add up the chances the prices imply and the total comes to more than a whole field, and the excess is what the book keeps whichever horse wins. The table below is the latest published margin for each book the Lab tracks. It is compiled from the previous evening's prices, so it describes the card as it was sold then rather than the morning's board, and the order of the table is a measurement, never a recommendation.

Bookmaker	Races	Overround	Takeout
1 SmarketsSBK	702	15.70%	13.57%
2 BetTom	612	23.49%	19.02%
3 Bet365	893	23.89%	19.29%
4 LiveScore Bet shared feed	705	24.52%	19.69%
= Virgin Bet shared feed	704	24.61%	19.75%
6 William Hill	924	25.62%	20.40%
7 Unibet	922	26.73%	21.09%
8 7Bet	755	27.02%	21.27%
= Quinn Bet	911	27.02%	21.27%
= Hollywood Bets	901	27.08%	21.31%
= Betfred	872	27.31%	21.45%
= Paddy Power	948	27.42%	21.52%
= 10 Bet	858	27.65%	21.66%
14 Star Sports	953	28.16%	21.97%
= Coral shared feed	954	28.26%	22.03%
= Ladbrokes shared feed	954	28.32%	22.07%
17 Midnite	927	28.75%	22.33%
18 Boyle Sports	944	29.08%	22.53%
19 Bet Victor shared feed	669	29.63%	22.86%
= Betano shared feed	667	29.77%	22.94%
= Dragon Bet	955	29.93%	23.04%
= BetWright	955	29.98%	23.06%
23 Betfair Sportsbook	949	30.30%	23.26%
24 BresBet	217	32.04%	24.27%
25 BetMGM	955	32.84%	24.72%

First pre-race book of each day, 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-24, across 957 races every listed book priced in full. Exchanges and spread firms are excluded: they do not quote comparable win odds. Overround is how far past a fair book the prices sit; takeout is the share of stakes the book keeps. On 27 days of data, books marked = are level with the one above rather than behind it. Books marked "shared feed" are one half of a pair that does not price independently, so there are fewer independent books here than rows.

The margin is the reason the Lab's tested strategies lose over time even when a pick is sound; what betting costs has the working, and the Tipster League shows what it does to the AI tipsters over a season.

Elsewhere in the Lab: Is the AI Better Than Just Backing the Favourite?.

Common questions

Which meetings race on Friday 25 September 2026?

Listowel and Dundalk in Ireland, and Worcester, Newmarket, Haydock Park and Newcastle in Britain. Every card is on the racecards page with the model's estimated chance beside each runner, and the first race is at Worcester at 12:55.

When are the model's estimates published?

Each morning before the first race, from the declared runners, and they are not changed after the off. A card labels itself a pre-race estimate once its race has run.

What does the model's chance mean?

The model's own estimate of how likely each runner is to win, set beside the chance the market price implies. It is an opinion with a published record, not a tip, and the track record is where that record lives.

Why is a horse missing from a card?

Either it was withdrawn after the estimates were made, or the race was one the model did not price. The horse tracker follows any runner on the card to its next entry.

How are the AI tipsters doing?

The Tipster League settles every AI pick at starting price and publishes the running total, losses included.

A word on all of this

None of the above is a tip, and no system the Lab has tested has made money over the whole record. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, BeGambleAware has free, confidential help.

Every figure on this page renders live from our published feeds and nothing here is a tip. For whether the model holds any edge, see our track record. 18+, please bet responsibly.