Racing card, 26 September 2026: Newmarket

The card for Saturday 26 September 2026 runs to seven meetings and 53 races: Curragh and Listowel in Ireland, and Newmarket, Haydock Park, Ripon, Market Rasen and Southwell in Britain. The first race is at Newmarket at 13:22 and the last is at Southwell at 20:30. Southwell has the longest card of the day, and the biggest field of it goes to post at Newmarket. The feature is the bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) at Newmarket, due off at 15:40, and it has the next section to itself. Every runner, with the model's estimated chance beside the market's price, is on the racecards page, and the model's view of the whole day is on the day's predictions; the card was written before the first race, so nothing on it is a result.

The feature: the bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) at Newmarket

Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)

Newmarket 15:40 · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · Class 2 · 1m1f

Latest output →

Pre-race estimate. Published 26 September 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.

The model rated Wild Thoughts its most likely winner at 6%, ahead of Bourbon Blues (6%) and Alcarath (6%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Wild Thoughts Saffie Osborne / R Spencer	13.00	5.7%	4.7%	Market 1.0pp longer
Bourbon Blues R L Moore / B J Meehan	9.00	5.7%	6.8%	Market 1.1pp shorter
Alcarath Rossa Ryan / A King	17.00	5.6%	3.6%	Market 2.0pp longer
Shafdar W Buick / Ian Williams	15.00	5.5%	4.1%	Market 1.4pp longer
Erzindjan Billy Loughnane / T Kent	8.00	4.8%	7.7%	Market 2.9pp shorter
Principality Kaiya Fraser / Harry Eustace	34.00	4.7%	1.8%	Market 2.9pp longer
Gavriel R Havlin / J & T Gosden	5.50	4.2%	11.2%	Market 7.0pp shorter
Pierre Royal Mikey Sheehy / A McGuinness	67.00	4.0%	0.9%	Market 3.1pp longer
Hand Of God Lewis Edmunds / Harry Charlton	11.00	3.6%	5.6%	Market 2.0pp shorter
Thunder Run C Lee / K R Burke	21.00	3.6%	2.9%	Market 0.7pp longer
Indalo Ray Dawson / R Varian	7.50	3.4%	8.2%	Market 4.8pp shorter
Altareq Lauren Young / J S Goldie	51.00	3.3%	1.2%	Market 2.1pp longer
Zennor Storm Harry Davies / W J Haggas	21.00	3.3%	2.9%	In line with market
Parole D'oro Jack Nicholls / M L W Bell	21.00	3.2%	2.9%	In line with market
Nizam Jack Dace / Ian Williams	67.00	3.1%	0.9%	Market 2.2pp longer
Pathein Non Runner / E A L Dunlop	13.00	3.1%	4.7%	Market 1.6pp shorter
Spell Master S De Sousa / Oli Rix	26.00	3.0%	2.4%	Market 0.6pp longer
Hard Endeavor D Egan / Jane Chapple-Hyam	15.00	2.9%	4.1%	Market 1.1pp shorter
Harmonics Shane Foley / J & T Gosden	11.00	2.9%	5.6%	Market 2.7pp shorter
Asmen Warrior Marco Ghiani / James Owen	34.00	2.9%	1.8%	Market 1.1pp longer
St Anton Joe Leavy / R Hannon	34.00	2.9%	1.8%	Market 1.0pp longer
Urban Lion George Bass / J Channon	34.00	2.8%	1.8%	Market 1.0pp longer
Wanderlust Josephine Gordon / I Jardine	67.00	2.8%	0.9%	Market 1.8pp longer
Salam Dubawi Olivia Tubb / J S Goldie	67.00	2.6%	0.9%	Market 1.7pp longer
Spanish Voice Oisin Murphy / A M Balding	21.00	2.6%	2.9%	In line with market
First Ambition Nicola Currie / Michael Keady	67.00	2.6%	0.9%	Market 1.7pp longer
Crest of Fire Tom Marquand / J Channon	11.00	2.6%	5.6%	Market 3.0pp shorter
Dwindling Funds Rhys Elliott / J S Goldie	67.00	2.5%	0.9%	Market 1.6pp longer

These were the model's estimated win chances going into the race, not tips. The model is calibrated to real results (when it says 25%, about 25% win) but it does not beat the market, so read it as an independent second opinion on the race. See how accurate it is →

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Sat, 26 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

The model rates Wild Thoughts its most likely winner, while the market has Gavriel shortest. The card above sets the model's estimated chance for each runner beside the chance implied by the market, and the gap between the two columns is the only thing the Lab claims to measure; it says which horse the model rates highest and nothing about what to do with that. The race is run over 1m1f, on ground declared as Good-good to firm in places, with 27 priced runners. The course itself is covered in the Newmarket guide. On the record it is a Heritage Handicap, over 1m 1f, first run in 1839.

Where the model disagrees with the market

The widest gap between the model's estimate and the market's price on this card is in the Listowel Printing Works Slan Abhaile (Pro/Am) Flat Race at Listowel (18:05), where the model gives Green Style a smaller chance than the price implies. The race was chosen by the size of that gap and by nothing else.

Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)

Listowel 18:05 · Listowel Printing Works Slan Abhaile (Pro/Am) Flat Race · 2m

Latest output →

Pre-race estimate. Published 26 September 2026, before the off. This is what the model made of the race beforehand, kept as a record. It was never published as a tip.

The model rated Game Shadow its most likely winner at 23%, ahead of Iron Sword (18%) and Green Style (15%). It read as a competitive, open race with no dominant runner.

Horse	SP	Model chance	Market	vs Market
Game Shadow Mr D Doyle / J C McConnell	6.00	22.7%	13.6%	Market 9.1pp longer
Iron Sword Mr A P Ryan / A Slattery	4.00	18.0%	20.4%	Market 2.4pp shorter
Green Style Mr P W Mullins / W P Mullins	1.73	15.1%	47.1%	Market 32.0pp shorter
Without Deception Miss Sarah Leahy / W J O'Doherty	67.00	11.6%	1.2%	Market 10.4pp longer
Imboundtosay Mr H C Swan / W M Roper	17.00	11.2%	4.8%	Market 6.4pp longer
Pats Charm Mr J G Chute / T P O'Connor	21.00	11.1%	3.9%	Market 7.2pp longer
Distraction Mr J L Gleeson / D A Kiely	9.00	10.4%	9.0%	Market 1.3pp longer

Model: ensemble-v1.0 · Generated Sat, 26 Sep 2026The Lab Methodology

A gap is a difference of opinion, and a difference of opinion is all it is: the wide ones tend to fall on runners the model has the least evidence about, as often as on a horse the market has overlooked. The left column is the model's estimated chance, the right is the chance the price implies, and the track record shows how often the model's side of the argument has been right once every pick is settled at starting price.

What the card costs

Every price on the card carries the bookmaker's margin: add up the chances the prices imply and the total comes to more than a whole field, and the excess is what the book keeps whichever horse wins. The table below is the latest published margin for each book the Lab tracks. It is compiled from the previous evening's prices, so it describes the card as it was sold then rather than the morning's board, and the order of the table is a measurement, never a recommendation.

Bookmaker	Races	Overround	Takeout
1 SmarketsSBK	982	15.64%	13.52%
2 BetTom	872	23.34%	18.92%
3 Bet365	1256	24.11%	19.43%
= LiveScore Bet shared feed	960	24.31%	19.55%
= Virgin Bet shared feed	958	24.35%	19.58%
6 William Hill	1295	25.77%	20.49%
7 7Bet	1015	26.63%	21.03%
= Unibet	1290	26.76%	21.11%
9 Quinn Bet	1280	27.16%	21.36%
= Hollywood Bets	1277	27.21%	21.39%
11 Betfred	1220	27.48%	21.56%
= Paddy Power	1326	27.58%	21.62%
13 10 Bet	1205	27.85%	21.78%
14 Star Sports	1331	28.37%	22.10%
15 Coral shared feed	1332	28.85%	22.39%
= Midnite	1297	28.90%	22.42%
= Ladbrokes shared feed	1333	28.94%	22.44%
18 Boyle Sports	1323	29.19%	22.59%
= Bet Victor shared feed	924	29.41%	22.73%
= Betano shared feed	923	29.52%	22.79%
21 Dragon Bet	1335	30.11%	23.14%
= BetWright	1335	30.14%	23.16%
23 Betfair Sportsbook	1327	30.55%	23.40%
24 BresBet	217	32.04%	24.27%
25 BetMGM	1335	33.41%	25.04%

First pre-race book of each day, 2026-08-27 to 2026-10-04, across 1337 races every listed book priced in full. Exchanges and spread firms are excluded: they do not quote comparable win odds. Overround is how far past a fair book the prices sit; takeout is the share of stakes the book keeps. On 37 days of data, books marked = are level with the one above rather than behind it. Books marked "shared feed" are one half of a pair that does not price independently, so there are fewer independent books here than rows.

The margin is the reason the Lab's tested strategies lose over time even when a pick is sound; what betting costs has the working, and the Tipster League shows what it does to the AI tipsters over a season.

Elsewhere in the Lab: Is Backing the Favourite Really the Safe Bet?.

Common questions

Which meetings race on Saturday 26 September 2026?

Curragh and Listowel in Ireland, and Newmarket, Haydock Park, Ripon, Market Rasen and Southwell in Britain. Every card is on the racecards page with the model's estimated chance beside each runner, and the first race is at Newmarket at 13:22.

When are the model's estimates published?

Each morning before the first race, from the declared runners, and they are not changed after the off. A card labels itself a pre-race estimate once its race has run.

What does the model's chance mean?

The model's own estimate of how likely each runner is to win, set beside the chance the market price implies. It is an opinion with a published record, not a tip, and the track record is where that record lives.

Why is a horse missing from a card?

Either it was withdrawn after the estimates were made, or the race was one the model did not price. The horse tracker follows any runner on the card to its next entry.

How are the AI tipsters doing?

The Tipster League settles every AI pick at starting price and publishes the running total, losses included.

A word on all of this

None of the above is a tip, and no system the Lab has tested has made money over the whole record. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, BeGambleAware has free, confidential help.

Every figure on this page renders live from our published feeds and nothing here is a tip. For whether the model holds any edge, see our track record. 18+, please bet responsibly.