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See the Charlie Hall Chase live hubThe jumps season runs all year, but late October is when the big Saturdays start. Four weekends in a row bring Cheltenham's Showcase (Friday 23 and Saturday 24 October), the Charlie Hall meeting at Wetherby and Down Royal's Festival of Racing (Friday 30 and Saturday 31 October), and Cheltenham's November Meeting (Friday 13 to Sunday 15 November).
We went through our own results database to find which British jumps yards are winning now, and how the big yards have gone over this stretch in each of the last three years. The recent figures run to Wednesday 21 October and agree run for run with our published results files; the earlier years come from our race record, which starts in October 2023.
Dan SkeltonAdd Dan Skelton to the Horse Tracker is sending out far more winners than anyone else, and Nigel & Willy Twiston-DaviesAdd Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies to the Horse Tracker are winning with four runners in ten. Two of the biggest names, Nicky HendersonAdd Nicky Henderson to the Horse Tracker and Paul NichollsAdd Paul Nicholls to the Horse Tracker, have hardly started.
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Who is in form: the last 14 and 30 days
Between 22 September and 21 October there were 257 British jumps races and 1,797 runners, a strike rate of 14.3% across the lot. That is the figure to hold each yard against.
Dan SkeltonAdd Dan Skelton to the Horse Tracker had 128 of those runners and won 29 of the 257 races, about one in every nine. In the 14 days from 8 to 21 October he had 23 winners from 86 runners (26.7%). The next busiest yards, Olly MurphyAdd Olly Murphy to the Horse Tracker and Lucinda Russell & Michael ScudamoreAdd Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore to the Horse Tracker, had 52 runners each over the 30 days.
The Twiston-DaviesAdd Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies to the Horse Tracker yard has the best strike rate of the 20 trainers with at least 20 runners in the 30 days, 17 winners from 42 (40.5%), with 9 from 27 in the 14 days from 8 October. Jamie SnowdenAdd Jamie Snowden to the Horse Tracker and Olly Murphy are both on 25%. Over the 14 days Stuart EdmundsAdd Stuart Edmunds to the Horse Tracker and Charlie LongsdonAdd Charlie Longsdon to the Horse Tracker share the best strike rate of anyone with ten or more runners, four winners from 11 each, too few runs to read much into.
At the other end, Mrs C WilliamsAdd Mrs C Williams to the Horse Tracker had 26 runners in the 14 days to 21 October without a winner, and one winner from 34 over the 30 days. Our feed lists that yard under Evan Williams until March 2026 and under Mrs C Williams since; across late October and November from 2023 to 2025 it had 21 winners from 271 runners (7.7%), so a slow autumn is not new there.
| Trainer | 14 days: runs | Wins | Strike rate | 30 days: runs | Wins | Strike rate | 30 days: 2nd or 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Skelton | 86 | 23 | 26.7% | 128 | 29 | 22.7% | 33 |
| Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies | 27 | 9 | 33.3% | 42 | 17 | 40.5% | 13 |
| Olly Murphy | 31 | 8 | 25.8% | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 18 |
| Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 52 | 9 | 17.3% | 13 |
| Jamie Snowden | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 12 |
| James Owen | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 31 | 7 | 22.6% | 10 |
| Stuart Edmunds | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 7 |
| Fergal O'Brien | 23 | 3 | 13.0% | 33 | 6 | 18.2% | 6 |
| Mickey Bowen | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 38 | 4 | 10.5% | 17 |
| Mrs C Williams | 26 | 0 | 0.0% | 34 | 1 | 2.9% | 9 |
| Every British jumps runner | 1,031 | 146 | 14.2% | 1,797 | 257 | 14.3% |
Source: our results database, British chases, hurdles and bumpers, to 21 October 2026. Non-runners left out; fallers count as beaten.
22 October to 30 November, 2023 to 2025
The six weeks from 22 October to 30 November take in the Showcase, the Charlie Hall and Down Royal weekend, Cheltenham in mid-November and a lot of midweek racing around them. In 2023, 2024 and 2025 combined they held 1,779 British jumps races and 14,699 runners, a strike rate of 12.1% across all of them. Fields are bigger then than now, about 8.3 runners a race against 7.0 in the last 30 days, which is why the average strike rate is lower.
SkeltonAdd Dan Skelton to the Horse Tracker had the most winners in the three windows, 93 from 550 runners, and his total has risen each year: 19, then 34, then 40. NichollsAdd Paul Nicholls to the Horse Tracker had 74 from 331, but his count has gone the other way, from 32 in 2023 to 24 and then 18. HendersonAdd Nicky Henderson to the Horse Tracker won with almost one runner in four, 52 from 211.
The best strike rate of any trainer with 40 or more runners across the three windows belongs to Jamie SnowdenAdd Jamie Snowden to the Horse Tracker: 44 winners from 143 (30.8%), including 22 from 58 last year. Sam ThomasAdd Sam Thomas to the Horse Tracker is next with 20 from 68, then Matt SheppardAdd Matt Sheppard to the Horse Tracker and Kim Bailey & Mat NichollsAdd Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls to the Horse Tracker, both just under 26%.
| Trainer | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | All three | Strike rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Skelton | 19 from 156 | 34 from 171 | 40 from 223 | 93 from 550 | 16.9% |
| Paul Nicholls | 32 from 130 | 24 from 102 | 18 from 99 | 74 from 331 | 22.4% |
| Olly Murphy | 14 from 90 | 25 from 111 | 24 from 129 | 63 from 330 | 19.1% |
| Nicky Henderson | 20 from 73 | 17 from 70 | 15 from 68 | 52 from 211 | 24.6% |
| Joe Tizzard | 12 from 82 | 21 from 94 | 18 from 85 | 51 from 261 | 19.5% |
| Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies | 20 from 75 | 14 from 91 | 16 from 89 | 50 from 255 | 19.6% |
| Fergal O'Brien | 14 from 95 | 15 from 96 | 16 from 119 | 45 from 310 | 14.5% |
| Ben Pauling | 8 from 81 | 14 from 90 | 22 from 106 | 44 from 277 | 15.9% |
| Jamie Snowden | 12 from 47 | 10 from 38 | 22 from 58 | 44 from 143 | 30.8% |
| James Owen | 6 from 34 | 17 from 57 | 12 from 77 | 35 from 168 | 20.8% |
| Every British jumps runner | 566 from 4,951 | 606 from 4,796 | 607 from 4,952 | 1,779 from 14,699 | 12.1% |
Wins from runners, 22 October to 30 November each year, British jumps races only. Each feed name is counted on its own: the Lucinda Russell yard, under its old and new licence names together, had 45 winners from 288 runners (15.6%), level with Fergal O'Brien on winners. Source: our results database.
Quick starters and slow burners
For the ten yards with the most British jumps winners across the last two full seasons, we set each one's strike rate from 22 October to 30 November against its figure for the whole season. Our season runs May to April, our own cut of the data, and 2023-24 starts in October because our record does.
Jamie SnowdenAdd Jamie Snowden to the Horse Tracker is the only one of the ten whose autumn strike rate beat his season's figure in all three years: 25.5% against 19.9%, then 26.3% against 21.1%, then 37.9% against 24.9% last season. Nicky HendersonAdd Nicky Henderson to the Horse Tracker, Paul NichollsAdd Paul Nicholls to the Horse Tracker and the Twiston-DaviesAdd Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies to the Horse Tracker yard were each higher in two of the three. Olly MurphyAdd Olly Murphy to the Horse Tracker and Neil MulhollandAdd Neil Mulholland to the Horse Tracker were lower in all three: Murphy 18.6% in last season's window against 20.6% over the season, Mulholland 6.9% against 12.4%.
Dan SkeltonAdd Dan Skelton to the Horse Tracker barely moves, within three points either way each year, from about 1,000 runners a season. Snowden's autumn windows held 38 to 58 runners, so each of his numbers is a small sample.
Cheltenham, Wetherby and Down Royal
Cheltenham
Cheltenham's October and November meetings together, 2023 to 2025, come to 99 races over 15 days in our record. Dan SkeltonAdd Dan Skelton to the Horse Tracker had 12 winners from 63 runners and Nicky HendersonAdd Nicky Henderson to the Horse Tracker 8 from 32, a quarter of his runners. Henry de BromheadAdd H De Bromhead to the Horse Tracker won with 5 from 25. Ben PaulingAdd Ben Pauling to the Horse Tracker has one winner from 37 runners at these meetings and Fergal O'BrienAdd Fergal O'Brien to the Horse Tracker two from 39.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup went to Paul NichollsAdd Paul Nicholls to the Horse Tracker with Stage StarAdd Stage Star to the Horse Tracker in 2023 and Il RidotoAdd Il Ridoto to the Horse Tracker in 2024, and to Skelton with Panic AttackAdd Panic Attack to the Horse Tracker last year. The October meeting's fields are in our Cheltenham Showcase 2026 preview, and the November Meeting guide has the Gold Cup day's race times.
Wetherby
Our record holds 257 jumps races at Wetherby since October 2023. Skelton has 20 winners from 83 runners there, nine of them from 36 runners in late October and November. Of trainers with ten or more runners there, Jamie SnowdenAdd Jamie Snowden to the Horse Tracker (10 from 23) and James OwenAdd James Owen to the Horse Tracker (7 from 18) have the best strike rates, on small numbers. The Charlie Hall Chase has had three different winning trainers in three years, from fields of four to six: GentlemansgameAdd Gentlemansgame to the Horse Tracker for Mouse MorrisAdd M F Morris to the Horse Tracker in 2023, The Real WhackerAdd The Real Whacker to the Horse Tracker for Patrick NevilleAdd Patrick Neville to the Horse Tracker in 2024 and DjeloAdd Djelo to the Horse Tracker for Venetia WilliamsAdd Miss V Williams to the Horse Tracker in 2025.
Down Royal
Down Royal is in Northern Ireland, outside every British figure on this page. Gordon ElliottAdd Gordon Elliott to the Horse Tracker leads the course in our record with 41 jumps winners from 174 runners, and 21 from 70 at the autumn meeting over the last three years. De Bromhead has won the Down Royal Champion Chase twice with Envoi AllenAdd Envoi Allen to the Horse Tracker, in 2024 and 2025, after Elliott won it with Gerri ColombeAdd Gerri Colombe to the Horse Tracker in 2023. On their runs in Ireland and Northern Ireland over the 30 days to 21 October, de Bromhead had 9 winners from 55 runners (16.4%) and Elliott 9 from 72 (12.5%).
What the numbers can and cannot tell you
A strike rate records what a yard has done. The bookmakers see the same results and price the runners with them in mind. Across the three late-autumn windows above, a level stake on every British jumps runner at starting price lost about 26p in the pound.
The numbers work best as background: who is sending out winners now, and who has done well at this time of year before. Our StableBet Ratings for each day's cards are on the AI race predictor, with the model's public record on its track record page. They are published to test the model in public.
Bet responsibly
The jumps season brings big Friday and Saturday cards for weeks on end, and it is easy to bet more than you meant to. Set a budget before the meeting and stick to it, and treat any free bet as part of that budget rather than extra. The odds favour the bookmaker over time, whichever yard is in form. If gambling stops being fun, free confidential support is available from BeGambleAware on 0808 8020 133. 18+.
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