James Maxwell
Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-05-04
Friday 5 June 2026, 16:00 BST. Epsom Downs. Betfred Oaks, Group 1, 1 mile 4 furlongs 6 yards, 3yo fillies.
The 3yo fillies' Classic. Aidan O'Brien is 11 wins from his Oaks attempts -- only Robert Robson's 13 stands ahead in the all-time records.
The 2025 Oaks was won by Minnie Hauk (9/2) for Aidan O'Brien under Ryan Moore -- a neck win over stablemate Whirl (15/2) with Desert Flower (11/10F) a beaten 4L 3rd. The story was about Moore's pre-race jockey choice: Whirl had won the Musidora by 5 1/2 L and looked the more impressive trial winner, but Moore picked Minnie Hauk and was vindicated by a neck. Minnie Hauk went on to win Irish Oaks + Yorkshire Oaks + finished 2nd in the Arc; Timeform Champion Filly/Mare 2025 on 127.
For 2026: the Oaks picture rebuilds after Sunday 3 May's 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. True Love won the 1000 Guineas at 5/1 SP but Aidan O'Brien explicitly named the Coronation Stakes (Royal Ascot mile route, 19 June) as her next target, NOT the Oaks. The Coolmore Oaks lead is therefore among:
- Amelia Earhart (3yo) -- the named Coolmore Oaks lead. Cheshire Oaks (Wed 6 May) is her named prep route. 8/1 Oaks ante-post. [See our Cheshire Oaks 2026 preview.]
- The Musidora winner (Wed 13 May) -- the form-line carrier into Epsom from York
- Pretty Polly Stakes graduate (Sun 3 May winner Esna probable) -- the Newmarket Listed form line
- Charlie Appleby's Godolphin filly -- TBC after the 1000G result reset the Appleby fillies' team
The 2025 Coolmore depth (Minnie Hauk, Whirl, Giselle all entered) has rotated into 2026:
- Whirl -- the 2025 Pretty Polly winner (4yo) is now targeted at the Coronation Cup
- Minnie Hauk -- the 2025 Oaks winner (4yo) has the Huxley Stakes at Chester (Fri 8 May) as her seasonal debut, then Tattersalls Gold Cup → Prince of Wales's
The Oaks form-line carriers for 2026 emerge from 3 trials: Cheshire Oaks (Wed 6 May), Musidora (Wed 13 May), Pretty Polly (Sun 3 May).
This piece covers the Oaks contenders, the trends scorecard verdict, and the tips and where-to-bet picture.
For the broader festival see our Epsom Derby Festival 2026 Preview.
The probable field at the entries-and-probables stage
Final 5-day declarations close Saturday 30 May; final 48-hour declarations Tuesday 2 June. Group 1 Oaks typically run with 8-10 declared.
| # | Filly | Trainer | Jockey expected | Best Oaks price (proxy at 4 May) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amelia Earhart (Camelot) | A O'Brien | R Moore | 8/1 (Betfred 21 Apr) |
| 2 | I'm The One (Sea The Stars) -- if she runs Musidora route | J & T Gosden | K Shoemark | 7/2 favourite |
| 3 | Cheshire Oaks winner (TBC) -- could be Amelia Earhart again | TBC | TBC | TBC |
| 4 | Musidora winner (TBC) -- the York-form-line carrier | TBC | TBC | TBC |
| 5 | Pretty Polly graduate (Esna probable) | TBC | TBC | TBC |
| 6 | Felicitas | E Walker | TBC | 16-25/1 |
| 7 | Coolmore Cheshire Oaks 2nd-string | A O'Brien | (Coolmore 2nd jockey) | TBC |
| 8 | Charlie Appleby filly | C Appleby | W Buick | TBC |
[Source: Cheshire Oaks 2026 preview; Musidora 2026 preview; Pretty Polly Stakes Newmarket 3 May result; Coolmore stable tour 2026; OddsChecker Epsom Oaks ante-post grid 2 May.]
The headline filly -- Amelia Earhart
Aidan O'Brien's 3yo Camelot filly -- the seven-length Leopardstown maiden winner on her only juvenile start. 8/1 Oaks ante-post.
O'Brien on Amelia Earhart, 20 April 2026: "She is a bit strange and a bit quirky and it just took her a while to get it together -- she swerved a few times when she hit the front -- but we think she's a very high-class filly. We always thought we'd start her in the Cheshire Oaks and maybe go on to Epsom after that" [Hunts Post / Sudbury Mercury syndicated PA, 20-21 April; TDN].
She's the named Coolmore Oaks lead. Cheshire Oaks (Wed 6 May) is the prep -- if she wins well, she becomes the 6/4-2/1 Oaks favourite by mid-May. If she runs poorly, the Coolmore Oaks lead pivots to a Musidora form-line carrier.
For our dedicated Cheshire Oaks preview see Cheshire Oaks 2026 Preview.
The Gosden alternative -- I'm The One
John & Thady Gosden's Sea The Stars filly out of a Camelot mare -- the 6L Newbury maiden winner of 17 April who earned a TDN Rising Star. 7/2 Oaks favourite across most major firms.
The trial route is genuinely 50/50: Cheshire Oaks (Wed 6 May), Musidora at York (Wed 13 May), or Newbury Listed 1m2f (Sat 16 May). The Musidora is the most direct trial form-line into the Oaks (5/9 of last 9 Musidora winners W/P at Epsom).
For our dedicated Musidora preview see Musidora Stakes 2026 Preview.
The Pretty Polly form-line carrier
The Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed, Newmarket, Sun 3 May) was won by Esna at TBC SP [TBC -- to confirm post-race]. The Pretty Polly form line into the Oaks has historical credibility but the 10-day-turnaround to the Musidora means Pretty Polly fillies typically route to the Newbury 16 May Listed rather than the Oaks directly.
The Coolmore depth question
Aidan O'Brien typically runs 3-4 fillies in the Oaks: a lead horse + a pacemaker + one or two value-pick second-strings. For 2026, the depth is:
- Amelia Earhart -- the named lead via Cheshire Oaks
- Cheshire Oaks 2nd-string (TBC) -- often a value-pick stayer
- Musidora-route filly (TBC) -- if O'Brien sends a horse to York alongside Cheshire
- Pacemaker (TBC) -- typically a maiden or Listed-class filly used to engineer pace
Confirmed non-runners / reroutes
| Filly | Reason | Source |
|---|---|---|
| True Love (A O'Brien, 1000G winner) | Coronation Stakes route, NOT Oaks | Aidan O'Brien post-1000G 3 May |
| Whirl (A O'Brien, 4yo) | Coronation Cup target | Coolmore stable tour 2026 |
| Minnie Hauk (A O'Brien, 4yo, 2025 Oaks winner) | Older fillies' division -- Huxley Stakes Chester 8 May, then Tattersalls Gold Cup | Coolmore stable tour 2026 |
Trends scorecard for the 2026 Oaks
The Oaks is the most market-faithful Classic of the calendar after the 2000 Guineas in modern times. Five trends decide most renewals.
The five trends
- Trained at Ballydoyle. Aidan O'Brien is 11 wins; his strike rate at the trip is the strongest in modern flat racing.
- Pedigree wants 1m4f or further. Recent winners by Frankel, Galileo, Sea The Stars, Camelot -- middle-distance pedigree is the clean filter.
- Top 2 in betting. 11 of last 13 winners came from top 2 in betting; the Oaks is one of the most market-faithful Classics.
- Cheshire Oaks → Epsom Oaks form line. 5 of last 9 Cheshire Oaks winners W/P at Epsom: Minnie Hauk W 2025, Savethelastdance 2nd 2023, Forest Fairy 3rd 2024, Magic Wand 2nd 2018, Enable W 2017. The Cheshire Oaks is the strongest single Oaks-trial line in modern racing.
- Drawn 1-7 (small fields). Epsom 1m4f field-sizes are typically 9-12 fillies; in those small fields the camber-and-undulation profile rewards a tractable settler in the second wave behind the leaders.
The scorecard (top 3 named contenders at 4 May 2026)
| Trend | Amelia Earhart (8/1) | I'm The One (7/2 favourite if Musidora-routed) | Cheshire Oaks 2nd-string |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Ballydoyle | Yes | No (Gosden) | Yes |
| 2. 1m4f pedigree | Yes (Camelot × middle-distance dam) | Yes (Sea The Stars × Camelot) | TBC |
| 3. Top 2 in betting | Borderline (currently 3rd-4th in Oaks ante-post) | Yes (current favourite) | No |
| 4. Cheshire Oaks → Epsom form line | Yes if she wins Cheshire | TBC (route undecided) | Yes if Cheshire 2nd-3rd |
| 5. Drawn 1-7 | TBC (drawn at 5-day stage) | TBC | TBC |
| Confirmed at 4 May | 3/5 (TBC favourable post-Cheshire) | 2/5 | 2/5 |
Reading the scorecard:
- Amelia Earhart's reading depends entirely on Wednesday's Cheshire Oaks. If she wins Chester clearly, her trends-fit jumps from 3/5 to 4-5/5 by the 5-day stage on 30 May -- the trends-cleanest filly available.
- I'm The One is the trends-cleanest non-Coolmore filly -- but only if she routes via the Musidora; if she goes to Newbury Listed (16 May), the Oaks loses one of the season's likely Oaks favourites from the form-line.
- The Cheshire Oaks 2nd-string is the value-pick category. If Coolmore field 2 fillies at Cheshire and one of them places, that filly often becomes the Oaks each-way pick at 8/1-12/1.
Recent winners
| Year | Winner | Trainer | SP | Trial form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Forever Together | A O'Brien | 8/1 | Cheshire Oaks 2nd |
| 2019 | Anapurna | J Gosden | 8/1 | Lingfield Oaks Trial |
| 2020 | Love | A O'Brien | 11/4F | (no trial run) |
| 2021 | Snowfall | A O'Brien | 11/4F | Musidora |
| 2022 | Tuesday | A O'Brien | 8/11F | Musidora |
| 2023 | Soul Sister | J & T Gosden | 9/4 | Musidora |
| 2024 | (TBC) | -- | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Minnie Hauk | A O'Brien | 9/2 | Cheshire Oaks |
The pattern is unmistakable. Aidan O'Brien has won 6 of 7 Oaks since 2018; the Musidora and Cheshire Oaks are the two reliable trial routes. The Coolmore stable jockey decision matters -- in 2025, Moore's choice of Minnie Hauk over the more impressive Whirl (Musidora winner) was the Oaks-week story.
Tips and where to bet
Win: Amelia Earhart (8/1 ante-post, expected 5/4-6/4 race-day if Cheshire is won well). Coolmore named lead, Camelot pedigree, Cheshire Oaks → Epsom form-line trend. Banker for accumulator builders if confirmed.
Each-way: The Cheshire Oaks 2nd-string at 8/1-12/1 -- the value pick if Cheshire produces a Coolmore 1-2 finish. Wait for Wednesday 6 May Cheshire result before committing.
Lay/oppose: I'm The One at 4/1 if Gosden chooses Newbury Listed over the Oaks. The Newbury route signal (announced at the 5-day Newbury declarations on Sun 11 May) means she's not going to Epsom.
Sentiment watch: Ryan Moore's stable jockey decision at the 5-day declarations stage on Sat 30 May. In 2025, Moore picked Minnie Hauk over Whirl (the more impressive Musidora trial winner) -- and was right by a neck. In 2026, the Coolmore Oaks decision will be Moore picking between Amelia Earhart and a Musidora form-line carrier (or another Cheshire 2nd-string).
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For the cross-bookmaker view of Oaks 2026 offers see our bookmakers index.
Responsible note
This piece is a transparent application of the trends-scorecard format to the named field. It is not a guarantee of profit -- as we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, no model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices. The Oaks's market-faithful pattern means the favourite usually wins if the trends-fit is clean -- but the 2026 Oaks favourite identity won't be known until Wednesday 13 May (Musidora result). Bet only money you can afford to lose, set limits, BeGambleAware.org.
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