James Maxwell
Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-06-17
Friday 5 June 2026, 16:00 BST. Epsom Downs. Betfred Oaks, Group 1, 1 mile 4 furlongs 6 yards, 3yo fillies.
The 3yo fillies' Classic. Aidan O'Brien is 11 wins from his Oaks attempts -- only Robert Robson's 13 stands ahead in the all-time records.
The 2025 Oaks was won by Minnie Hauk (9/2) for Aidan O'Brien under Ryan Moore -- a neck win over stablemate Whirl (15/2) with Desert Flower (11/10F) a beaten 4L 3rd. The story was about Moore's pre-race jockey choice: Whirl had won the Musidora by 5½ L and looked the more impressive trial winner, but Moore picked Minnie Hauk and was vindicated by a neck. Minnie Hauk went on to win Irish Oaks + Yorkshire Oaks + finished 2nd in the Arc.
The 2026 Oaks market has crystallised after two trials:
- Amelia Earhart (Aidan O'Brien) won the Cheshire Oaks (Wed 6 May) by 2L — Aidan O'Brien's 10th Cheshire Oaks success. Now firmly the Coolmore-named Oaks lead at 5/1-9/2 ante-post.
- Legacy Link (J & T Gosden) won the Musidora Stakes (Wed 13 May) as the 6/4F by 3/4L from Felicitas — cut to 5/1 for the Oaks as the leading non-Coolmore challenger.
True Love (A O'Brien) won the 1000 Guineas at 25/1 SP but Aidan O'Brien explicitly named the Coronation Stakes (Royal Ascot mile route, 19 June) as her next target, NOT the Oaks. The Coolmore Oaks lead is therefore Amelia Earhart, with a 3-4 strong Coolmore field expected.
The 2025 Coolmore depth (Minnie Hauk, Whirl, Giselle all entered) has rotated into 2026:
- Whirl -- the 2025 Pretty Polly winner (now 4yo) is targeted at the Coronation Cup
- Minnie Hauk -- the 2025 Oaks winner (now 4yo) flopped to 5th at 4/6F in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (24 May), beaten 9L by Almaqam; Royal Ascot Prince of Wales's plans now uncertain. See our Tattersalls Gold Cup 2026 Result.
This piece covers the Oaks contenders, the trends scorecard verdict, and the tips and where-to-bet picture.
For the broader festival see our Epsom Derby Festival 2026 Preview. For the Cheshire Oaks 2026 result and Musidora Stakes 2026 result see the dedicated pieces.
The probable field at the entries-and-probables stage
Final 5-day declarations close Saturday 30 May; final 48-hour declarations Tuesday 2 June. Group 1 Oaks typically run with 8-10 declared.
| # | Filly | Trainer | Jockey expected | Best Oaks price (17 May 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amelia Earhart (Camelot) | A O'Brien | R Moore | 5/1-9/2 (Cheshire Oaks winner) |
| 2 | Legacy Link (Dubawi) | J & T Gosden | TBC | 5/1 (Musidora winner) |
| 3 | Felicitas | E Walker | TBC | 10/1-12/1 (Musidora 2nd) |
| 4 | Cheshire Oaks placed fillies | TBC | TBC | TBC |
| 5 | Coolmore 2nd-string (TBC) | A O'Brien | TBC | TBC |
| 6 | Jennifer Jane | C Johnston | TBC | 16/1-20/1 (Pretty Polly winner) |
| 7 | Esna | TBC | TBC | 25/1 (Pretty Polly also-ran) |
| 8 | Charlie Appleby filly TBC | C Appleby | W Buick | TBC |
[Source: Cheshire Oaks 2026 result; Musidora Stakes 2026 result; Pretty Polly Stakes Newmarket 3 May result; Coolmore stable tour 2026; OddsChecker Epsom Oaks ante-post grid 17 May.]
The headline filly -- Amelia Earhart (5/1-9/2F)
Aidan O'Brien's 3yo Camelot filly — the seven-length Leopardstown maiden winner on her only juvenile start, and now the Cheshire Oaks 2026 winner by 2L for O'Brien's 10th Cheshire Oaks success. 5/1-9/2 Oaks ante-post post-Chester — the trends-cleanest filly available.
O'Brien on Amelia Earhart, 20 April 2026: "She is a bit strange and a bit quirky and it just took her a while to get it together -- she swerved a few times when she hit the front -- but we think she's a very high-class filly. We always thought we'd start her in the Cheshire Oaks and maybe go on to Epsom after that" [Hunts Post / Sudbury Mercury syndicated PA, 20-21 April].
Post-Chester, Amelia Earhart is firmly the Coolmore Oaks lead. O'Brien confirmed the Epsom plan immediately after the Cheshire result. Expected race-day favourite at 5/4-6/4.
For our dedicated Cheshire Oaks coverage see Cheshire Oaks 2026 Result.
The Gosden challenger -- Legacy Link (5/1)
John & Thady Gosden's Dubawi filly out of a Camelot mare — won the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes at York (Wed 13 May) as the 6/4F by 3/4L from Felicitas in a hard-fought 5-runner G3. Cut to 5/1 Oaks ante-post after the Musidora win.
The Musidora form line into the Oaks has produced Snowfall 2021, Tuesday 2022, and Soul Sister 2023 as recent Oaks winners — the strongest non-Coolmore trial pipeline. Legacy Link's Dubawi pedigree adds an Ezeliya-style angle (Ezeliya was the 2024 Oaks winner for Dermot Weld and the first Oaks success for the Dubawi stallion line).
I'm The One (Gosden, Sea The Stars) — the original Newbury maiden winner who was the 7/2 Oaks ante-post favourite at one stage — has been ruled out of the Oaks by the Gosden team; her Royal Ascot plan TBC.
For our dedicated Musidora coverage see Musidora Stakes 2026 Result.
The Pretty Polly form-line carriers
The Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed, Newmarket, Sun 3 May 2026) was won by Jennifer Jane (Charlie Johnston / Silvestre de Sousa) in an impressive front-running performance — the Newmarket Listed form-line carrier. Esna finished as an "also ran" after her Prix Marcel Boussac 4th (Longchamp) on her previous start. Jennifer Jane is now a 16/1-20/1 Oaks each-way price.
The Coolmore depth question
Aidan O'Brien typically runs 3-4 fillies in the Oaks: a lead horse + a pacemaker + one or two value-pick second-strings. For 2026, the depth is:
- Amelia Earhart — the named lead via Cheshire Oaks
- Cheshire Oaks 2nd-and-3rd-placed Coolmore fillies (TBC) — possible value-pick stayers
- Pacemaker (TBC) — typically a maiden or Listed-class filly used to engineer pace
Confirmed non-runners / reroutes
| Filly | Reason | Source |
|---|---|---|
| True Love (A O'Brien, 1000G winner) | Coronation Stakes route, NOT Oaks | Aidan O'Brien post-1000G 3 May |
| I'm The One (J & T Gosden) | Ruled out of Epsom Oaks | Gosden post-Musidora |
| Whirl (A O'Brien, 4yo) | Coronation Cup target | Coolmore stable tour 2026 |
| Minnie Hauk (A O'Brien, 4yo, 2025 Oaks winner) | Older fillies' division -- Tattersalls Gold Cup 24 May, then Royal Ascot | Coolmore stable tour 2026 |
Trends scorecard for the 2026 Oaks
The Oaks has historically been one of the most market-faithful Classics of the British flat calendar. Five trends decide most renewals.
The five trends
- Trained at Ballydoyle. Aidan O'Brien is 11 wins; his strike rate at the trip is the strongest in modern flat racing.
- Pedigree wants 1m4f or further. Recent winners by Dubawi, Frankel, Galileo, Sea The Stars, Camelot -- middle-distance pedigree is the clean filter.
- Top 2 in betting. Most recent Oaks winners (including Ezeliya 2024, Minnie Hauk 2025) came from the top 3 of the market on race-day.
- Cheshire Oaks → Epsom Oaks form line. Recent direct form-line carriers — Minnie Hauk (W 2025), Savethelastdance (2nd 2023), Forest Fairy (3rd 2024), Enable (W 2017). The Cheshire Oaks is one of the strongest single Oaks-trial lines in recent racing.
- Musidora → Epsom Oaks form line. Snowfall 2021, Tuesday 2022, Soul Sister 2023 — three consecutive Musidora-winner-to-Oaks-winner doubles. Legacy Link 2026 is the Musidora form-line carrier.
The scorecard (top 3 named contenders at 17 May 2026, post-trials)
| Trend | Amelia Earhart (5/1-9/2F) | Legacy Link (5/1) | Felicitas (10/1-12/1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Ballydoyle | Yes | No (Gosden) | No (E Walker) |
| 2. 1m4f pedigree | Yes (Camelot × middle-distance dam) | Yes (Dubawi × Camelot mare) | Yes |
| 3. Top 3 in betting | Yes (joint-fav) | Yes (joint-fav) | Borderline (3rd-4th) |
| 4. Cheshire Oaks → Epsom form line | Yes (Cheshire Oaks winner 6 May) | No | No |
| 5. Musidora → Epsom form line | No | Yes (Musidora winner 13 May) | Yes (Musidora 2nd) |
| Confirmed at 17 May | 4/5 | 3/5 | 2/5 |
Reading the scorecard:
- Amelia Earhart — the trends-cleanest filly at 4/5. Coolmore Ballydoyle + Camelot sire + joint-favourite + Cheshire Oaks winner = the strongest single profile available. Expected race-day favourite at 5/4-6/4.
- Legacy Link — the trends-cleanest non-Coolmore at 3/5. Gosden's Musidora form line is the strongest non-Cheshire trial route, and the 5/1 ante-post each-way price reflects this. The Musidora-to-Oaks pipeline has produced 3 of the last 5 winners directly.
- Felicitas — Musidora 2nd-placed at 10/1-12/1 is the structural longshot at the wider field.
Recent winners
| Year | Winner | Trainer | SP | Trial form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Forever Together | A O'Brien | 8/1 | Cheshire Oaks 2nd |
| 2019 | Anapurna | J Gosden | 8/1 | Lingfield Oaks Trial |
| 2020 | Love | A O'Brien | 11/4F | (no trial run) |
| 2021 | Snowfall | A O'Brien | 11/4F | Musidora winner |
| 2022 | Tuesday | A O'Brien | 8/11F | Musidora winner |
| 2023 | Soul Sister | J & T Gosden | 9/4 | Musidora winner |
| 2024 | Ezeliya | D Weld | 11/4 | (Pretty Polly Curragh) |
| 2025 | Minnie Hauk | A O'Brien | 9/2 | Cheshire Oaks winner |
[Sources: Wikipedia + Racing Post; cross-checked 17 May 2026.]
The pattern is unmistakable. Aidan O'Brien has won 6 of 8 Oaks since 2018; the Musidora has produced 3 winners in 5 years, the Cheshire Oaks 1 of 2 in 2025. The two trial routes are now equally credible Oaks form-line carriers. The Coolmore stable jockey decision matters — in 2025, Moore's choice of Minnie Hauk over the more impressive Whirl (Musidora winner) was the Oaks-week story.
Tips and where to bet
Win: Amelia Earhart (5/1-9/2F ante-post, expected 5/4-6/4 race-day). Coolmore named lead, Camelot pedigree, Cheshire Oaks → Epsom form-line trend confirmed. Banker for accumulator builders.
Each-way: Legacy Link at 5/1 — the Musidora-form-line carrier with three consecutive Musidora-to-Oaks-winner doubles in 2021-2023 supporting the angle. The cleanest non-Coolmore each-way structural pick of the spring Classics.
Win-only longshot: Felicitas at 10/1-12/1 — the Musidora 2nd-placed value play. Walker's stayer with Camelot-style pedigree at meaningful place-money.
Sentiment watch: Ryan Moore's stable jockey decision at the 5-day declarations stage on Sat 30 May. In 2025, Moore picked Minnie Hauk over Whirl (the more impressive Musidora trial winner) -- and was right by a neck. In 2026, the Coolmore Oaks decision is more straightforward with Amelia Earhart the clear Cheshire Oaks winner.
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For the cross-bookmaker view of Oaks 2026 offers see our bookmakers index.
Responsible note
This piece is a transparent application of the trends-scorecard format to the named field. It is not a guarantee of profit -- as we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, no model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices. The Oaks's market-faithful pattern means the favourite usually wins if the trends-fit is clean -- and Amelia Earhart's 4/5 trends score is the strongest single profile we've recorded across the 2026 British Classics. Bet only money you can afford to lose, set limits, BeGambleAware.org.
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