Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-08-24
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See the Grand National live hubThe weight ceiling this race broke
For forty years, the accepted wisdom about the Grand National was simple: nothing much above 11st 6lb wins it. Red Rum had carried 12st to victory in 1974, and nobody matched him for four decades. Then in 2026, I Am Maximus carried 11st 12lb to the win, the second-heaviest winning weight in the race's recorded history, and the closest anyone has come to Red Rum's mark since he set it.
That single result is worth taking seriously, not as a one-off but as a real data point in a pattern that has been shifting quietly for a decade. This page works through what the numbers actually say, computed directly from every recorded running back to 1970, not repeated folklore: winning weights, winning ages, and which trainers keep producing the winner in a race specifically designed to make that hard to do.
None of it predicts who wins in 2027. It tells you what has tended to hold, and what has just stopped holding as firmly as it once did, which matters more in this race than in almost any other on the calendar.
The numbers, computed from every running since 1970
Weight
Across all 55 recorded runnings, the average winning weight is 10st 11lb, and the great majority of winners have carried somewhere in the 10st-to-11st band. But the picture has clearly shifted at the top end recently: four of the last ten winners carried 11st 0lb or more, against 31% across the full history, and 2026's I Am Maximus at 11st 12lb sits second only to Red Rum's 1974 12st across every winner on record. The old "nothing heavy wins it" rule was never a law, it was a pattern, and the pattern is looking less reliable than it did a decade ago.
Age, market and connections
The trends
Winning age
- 9yo
- 29%
- 8yo
- 20%
- 10yo
- 20%
- 11yo
- 18%
Age known for 55 of 55 winners (1970–2026)
Market
- Started favourite
- 22%
- Won at 10/1 or bigger
- 76%
- Won at 5/1 or shorter
- 4%
Starting price known for 54 of 55 winners (1970–2026)
Trainers & jockeys
- Most successful trainer
- Ginger McCain (4)
- Most successful jockey
- Brian Fletcher (2)
55 runnings (1970–2026)
Nine years old is the single most common winning age, and horses aged eight to ten between them account for more than two-thirds of every winner since 1970. Repeat winners are a real, recurring feature of this race rather than a coincidence involving one or two names: Red Rum won three times across the 1970s, Tiger Roll won back-to-back in 2018 and 2019, and I Am Maximus has now matched that, either side of a 2025 win for the same yard's Nick Rockett.
One yard, three years running
Willie Mullins has trained the winner in each of the last three runnings: I Am Maximus in 2024 and 2026, Nick Rockett, ridden by Mullins' son Patrick, in 2025. Three consecutive years for one yard, in a handicap built specifically to level the field, is an unusual run by any measure and the single clearest connections signal in the race right now.
Where to Bet
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How to actually use this
What actually carries weight, and what doesn't anymore
Age and connections remain reasonably stable guides: the 8-to-10 sweet spot and the value of proven course experience have held up across five decades, and Willie Mullins' recent run is a real, current signal worth watching rather than a coincidence. Weight is the one area where a previously durable assumption has stopped being reliable. Thirty-plus years of "big weights don't win it" held right up until it didn't, and treating that as a hard filter today would have ruled out the actual winner in 2026.
What this page is not
This is a description of what has happened across every recorded running, not a prediction of what happens next. The Grand National is built, deliberately, to be one of the hardest races in the world to call: a maximum field, fences no other race jumps, and 4½ miles that exposes any overstated stamina claim. Treat every figure above as context for reading the market once the field is declared, not a substitute for it.
For our full read of the race once declarations are in, see the Grand National tips. For how our own model's predictions have actually fared, win and lose alike, the Stablebet track record is published in full.
Where to bet
For the current comparison of extra places, Best Odds Guaranteed and Non-Runner-No-Bet cover across the meeting's bookmakers, see our Grand National betting offers page.
Responsible note: trends are a way of reading a race, not a system for beating one. Bet only money you can afford to lose, set deposit limits, and take regular breaks. BeGambleAware.org.
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