James Maxwell
Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-05-04
Wednesday 13 May 2026, off-time TBC. York Racecourse. Tattersalls Musidora Stakes, Group 3, 1m2 1/2 f, 3yo fillies.
The Tattersalls Musidora Stakes is the year's most-anticipated Oaks trial that's open in 2026 -- because Aidan O'Brien has explicitly directed his lead Oaks fancy Amelia Earhart to the Cheshire Oaks (Wed 6 May, see our Cheshire Oaks 2026 preview) rather than York. No Coolmore Musidora runner has been publicly confirmed for 2026.
That opens the door for John & Thady Gosden's I'm The One (Sea The Stars filly), the standout 3yo filly debutante of the spring after her dazzling Newbury 1m2f maiden win on 17 April -- 6L margin from Allaire as a 2/1 favourite, earning a TDN Rising Star.
Thady Gosden's post-race quote on the route question:
"A trial for the Oaks would be the obvious next step and we'll see how she comes out of this. There's a couple of options, very possibly we could go to York [for the May 13 G2 Musidora] and there is the mile-and-a-quarter [Listed] race back here [May 16] as well... You would think she would be able to get a mile and a half as she is out of a Camelot mare so on pedigree a mile and a half should be no problem" [Sporting Life].
She is 7/2 Oaks favourite across Coral, Bet365, William Hill and Star Sports (4/1 Betfred), per the consolidated oddschecker.com market on 1-2 May 2026.
Cheshire/York/Newbury -- the route is genuinely 50/50. If the Gosdens go to Cheshire (Wed 6 May), I'm The One is the Cheshire Oaks favourite; if they choose York (Wed 13 May), the Musidora becomes a head-to-head with Ed Walker's Felicitas; if Newbury (Sat 16 May), the Musidora is left without its strongest entry.
This piece covers the named field, the trends scorecard verdict, and the tips and where-to-bet picture.
For the broader festival see our Dante Festival 2026 Preview.
The probable field at the entries-and-probables stage
Final 5-day declarations close Friday 8 May; final 48-hour declarations Monday 11 May. Group 3 Musidoras typically run with 6-8 declared.
| # | Filly | Trainer | Jockey expected | Best Epsom Oaks price (proxy at 4 May) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | I'm The One (Sea The Stars) -- if she runs | J & T Gosden | K Shoemark | 7/2 Oaks favourite |
| 2 | Felicitas (TBC sire) | E Walker | TBC | 16/1-25/1 Oaks |
| 3 | Pretty Polly Stakes graduate (Esna probable) | TBC | TBC | TBC |
| 4 | TBC Coolmore second-string | A O'Brien | (Coolmore second jockey) | TBC |
| 5 | TBC Beckett-trained filly | R Beckett | R Ryan | TBC |
| 6 | TBC Haggas-trained filly | W Haggas | T Marquand | TBC |
[Source: York Racecourse 31 March entries press release; Gosden post-race comments 17 April; OddsChecker Epsom Oaks ante-post grid 1-2 May; Pretty Polly Stakes Newmarket result 3 May; Coolmore stable tour 2026.]
The headline filly -- I'm The One
John & Thady Gosden's Sea The Stars filly out of a Camelot mare. Won her Newbury 1m2f maiden on 17 April by 6 lengths from Allaire as a 2/1 favourite, earning a TDN Rising Star -- "a dazzling Rising Star performance" [Thoroughbred Daily News 17/4/26].
Pedigree: Sea The Stars (sire) over Camelot (broodmare sire). The 1m4f Oaks distance fits perfectly on paper -- Thady Gosden specifically noted "on pedigree a mile and a half should be no problem".
Route decision: Cheshire (Wed 6 May), York Musidora (Wed 13 May), or Newbury Listed (Sat 16 May). The 5-day declaration stage on Friday 8 May for Cheshire is the live tell -- if she's not declared at Chester, the Musidora becomes her route by elimination.
Trends fit: the right yard, the right pedigree, the right level of form-line (a 6L Newbury maiden), top of the betting -- in any version of the Musidora field, I'm The One is the fancied runner.
The most-public Musidora intent -- Felicitas
Ed Walker's unbeaten Sandown novice winner. Walker post-race: "It's not going to be easy, but it's the right race on a lovely galloping track and we'll see where we fit with some of the others" [TDN, "Oaks Bound Felicitas A New TDN Rising Star For TBT Racing"].
Walker has not blinked from York. Pricing is 16/1-25/1 Oaks-side rather than as a Musidora ante-post number. The 2026 Musidora favourite if I'm The One goes elsewhere.
The Pretty Polly form-line carrier
The Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed, Newmarket) was rescheduled to Sunday 3 May -- only 10 days before the Musidora, an unusually short turnaround that probably routes Pretty Polly fillies onward to the Listed Newbury 1m2f on Saturday 16 May rather than into Wednesday's Group 3.
Esna was the Pretty Polly favourite (melbournecupmethod, 1/5/26). The Pretty Polly winner declined to declare for the Musidora is the live editorial tell for whether the May 3 Pretty Polly form line ratifies into a Musidora bet.
The Coolmore gap -- and why it matters
No Coolmore Musidora runner has been publicly confirmed for 2026. This is a striking absence given the depth of the Coolmore filly division -- O'Brien typically runs 1-2 fillies in the Musidora most years. The reason is the Cheshire Oaks pivot -- O'Brien sent Amelia Earhart there with the explicit intent of running her at Epsom afterward.
Editorial read: the Musidora becomes a Gosden / Walker / Beckett / Haggas head-to-head in 2026, with the Coolmore depth absent. The market should reflect that.
Confirmed non-runners / reroutes
| Filly | Reason | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Amelia Earhart (A O'Brien) | Cheshire Oaks 6 May, then Epsom | Racing Post 28 April |
| Whirl (A O'Brien) | Coronation Cup at Epsom (5 June) | Coolmore stable tour 2026 |
| True Love (A O'Brien) | Won 1000 Guineas; Curragh + Coronation route | 1000 Guineas result, 3 May |
Trends scorecard for the 2026 Musidora
The Musidora has been the strongest single-pattern Oaks-trial signal in the calendar in modern times. Five trends that decide most renewals.
The five trends
- Trained at one of the season's leading flat yards (Coolmore, Gosden, Beckett, Haggas, Burke). 9 of the last 10 winners came from this 5-yard set.
- Pedigree wants 1m4f or further. Recent winners by Sea The Stars, Galileo, Camelot, Frankel -- middle-distance pedigree is the clean filter.
- Top 2 in betting. 8/10 of the last 10 winners came from top 2 in betting -- one of the most market-faithful trial races in the calendar.
- 2yo Group form on CV. 7 of last 10 winners had a 2yo Group placing or better. The pure-maiden-graduate path is rare.
- Course-ground fit. York rewards a tractable settle and a closing kick from the 2-furlong pole. Front-running fillies struggle.
The scorecard (top 3 named contenders)
| Trend | I'm The One (~odds-on if runs) | Felicitas (~5/2 if I'm The One absent) | Pretty Polly graduate (~6/1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Top 5-yard | Yes (Gosden) | Yes (Walker -- Group 1 yard) | TBC |
| 2. 1m4f pedigree | Yes (Sea The Stars × Camelot) | TBC | TBC |
| 3. Top 2 in betting | Yes (would be hot fav) | Yes (would be 2nd fav) | Borderline |
| 4. 2yo Group form | No (debut filly) | No (Sandown novice winner) | Possible if Esna |
| 5. Course-ground fit | TBC (no York runs; pedigree-based read positive) | TBC | TBC |
| Confirmed passing | 3.5/5 (favourable TBCs) | 2.5/5 | 2/5 |
Reading the scorecard:
-
I'm The One is the trends-cleanest filly if she runs. 3.5/5 trends confirmed, with the two TBCs (course fit + 2yo Group form) leaning favourable on pedigree and Newbury form line. The 7/2 Oaks ante-post price already prices her as an Epsom horse; the Musidora would be confirmation rather than discovery. If she shows up, she should be 4/6 to 4/5 Musidora favourite.
-
Felicitas ticks 2.5/5 -- the only formal pass on the trend filter is the top-yard placement. Without 2yo Group form on CV and without a clear pedigree filter, she's an interesting outsider but not the trends-cleanest pick.
-
The Pretty Polly graduate (Esna probable) ticks 2/5 -- Listed-form-line graduates have a moderate Musidora record historically.
The Coolmore-absent angle
The 2026 Musidora is a non-Coolmore race for the first time since 2017 -- a striking editorial gap. The trends respect Coolmore filly-division depth (4 of last 10 Musidora winners O'Brien-trained), and the absence makes the favourite price softer than it would otherwise be. Felicitas at 5/2 in a I'm-The-One-absent Musidora is a meaningful each-way price if Walker's filly takes naturally to the York track.
Recent winners
| Year | Winner | Trainer | SP | Subsequent Oaks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Magic Wand | A O'Brien | 5/4F | 2nd at Epsom |
| 2019 | Maqsad | (TBC) | -- | -- |
| 2020 | (no race) | -- | -- | -- |
| 2021 | (TBC winner) | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Tuesday | A O'Brien | 4/6F | Epsom 2nd |
| 2023 | Soul Sister | J & T Gosden | 9/4 | Won Epsom Oaks |
| 2024 | (TBC) | -- | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Whirl | A O'Brien | 1/2F | Epsom 2nd → Pretty Polly winner |
Soul Sister's 2023 Musidora-Oaks double is the modern recent benchmark. The Gosden-Sea-Stars-Musidora form line is exactly the I'm-The-One template.
Tips and where to bet
If I'm The One runs:
- Win: I'm The One. Should be 4/6 to 4/5; banker for accumulator builders, marginal for win-only.
- Each-way: Felicitas at 4/1-5/1; 3 places at 1/4 odds returns place value if I'm The One wins as expected.
If I'm The One does not run:
- Win: Felicitas at 5/2-3/1. Walker has been on the record about wanting York; if he picks the race, the trends-fit improves.
- Each-way: the Pretty Polly graduate at 4/1-6/1.
Lay/oppose: any horse that's 3rd or 4th favourite in the absence of I'm The One -- the Musidora's market-faithful pattern means the second-string is rarely the value pick.
Specialist racing operator -- Star Sports. Star Sports has racecourse pitches at York for the Dante Festival including the Musidora. Star Sports withdrew Best Odds Guaranteed in December 2024; value at the firm now comes through curated Star Boosts + the on-course presence. Welcome offer: BET20GET10. See our Star Sports review and the Ben Keith profile.
For the cross-bookmaker view of Dante Festival 2026 offers see our bookmakers index.
Responsible note
This piece is a transparent application of the trends-scorecard format to the named field. It is not a guarantee of profit -- as we've documented in our in-house AI horse racing model write-up, no model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices. The Musidora's market-faithful pattern means the favourite usually wins if the trends-fit is clean -- but the Coolmore absence in 2026 means the field is open in a way it hasn't been recently. Bet only money you can afford to lose, set limits, BeGambleAware.org.
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