Founder & Editor · Last reviewed 2026-06-04
Stablebet model (pre-race estimated win chances)
The model published no estimate for this race (2026-06-06_epsom_1600). Estimates are generated daily at 09:00 BST from declared fields, so a race missing from that morning's card never had one.
See the latest model output for today's races, or our model methodology write-up for what the model is and what it isn't.
This has been run. See the Epsom Derby 2026 result for the finishing order and starting prices. What follows is kept as it was written beforehand.
Epsom Downs, Saturday 6 June 2026, 16:00 BST. Two days out. The 247th running of the Betfred Derby (G1, 1m4f6y, 3yo colts) is now inside 48 hours, 48-hour declarations have closed at midday and the field is locked at 14 declared runners [Racing Post, 4 June; Epsom-Races.com]. The Tuesday market shape has firmed rather than fractured: Benvenuto Cellini has tightened, Item has held, and the Coolmore-vs-Item two-horse narrative is now the cleanest Derby market shape into 48-hour stage since Desert Crown / Westover in 2022.
Status check — Thursday 4 June. Benvenuto Cellini (Aidan O'Brien / Ryan Moore, stall 12) has shortened from Tuesday's 7/4 to 2/1, holding favouritism through Wednesday's final declarations and the draw. Item (Andrew Balding / Oisin Murphy via Colin Keane, stall 3) is unchanged at 7/2. Pierre Bonnard drifted to 8/1 with Paddy Power overnight before recovering to 6/1 as the 2/1-favourite inflation pushed the second tier out a notch. No significant defections — the 14-declared field is broadly the same shortlist the market has been pricing all week [Racing Post, 4 June; consolidated Oddschecker, verified 4 June].
Where the Thursday market sits
| Position | Horse | Trainer / Jockey | Stall | Best price (4 June) | Tuesday price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benvenuto Cellini | A O'Brien / R Moore | 12 | 2/1 (shortened from 7/4) | 7/4 |
| 2 | Item | A Balding / O Murphy | 3 | 7/2 (unchanged) | 7/2 |
| 3 | Pierre Bonnard | A O'Brien / C Soumillon | 8 | 6/1 (drifted to 8/1 PP, recovered) | 7/1-8/1 |
| 4 | Ancient Egypt | Amo Racing | 10 | not confirmed | n/a (new declaration) |
[Consolidated market via Oddschecker / bet365 / William Hill / Unibet / Paddy Power / Betfred / Spreadex / 888sport, verified 4 June. NRNB live at all named UK firms.]
Coolmore go four-handed. Aidan O'Brien has declared Benvenuto Cellini, Pierre Bonnard, Ancient Egypt (in Amo Racing colours, stall 10) and Balzac — the deepest Ballydoyle Derby hand since 2024 and confirmation that the Tuesday TBC on Pierre Bonnard has resolved into a confirmed runner. Christophe Soumillon picks up the Pierre Bonnard ride [Racing Post, 4 June; TDN].
What is locked in vs still to come
- Locked Thursday: the 14 declared runners, Coolmore's four-strong team, jockey bookings on the two market leaders, stalls draw (released Wednesday afternoon).
- Still to come Friday: 24-hour declarations (10am Friday), final non-runner check, supporting Friday card (Coronation Cup + Oaks) as the first live read on Saturday's ground.
- Still to come Saturday: race-morning going-stick reading and any race-day non-runners after the 8am Cooper update.
For the Tuesday baseline see our Tuesday 2 June tracker. For the full Derby read see our Epsom Derby 2026 tips, the Epsom Derby 2026 Saturday preview and the Benvenuto Cellini vs Item head-to-head. The Friday morning declarations stage update follows this piece.
Where to Bet
Place your bets with a trusted, licensed bookmaker.
Promo code BETFRED50. New customers only. Register, deposit with a Debit Card, and place a first bet of £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports, to be settled within 7 days, to get £30 in Sports Free Bets and £20 in Bet Builder Free Bets within 24 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. Take Time to Think. BeGambleAware.org. 18+. Full T&Cs.
Promo code R30. New UK customers only, 18+. Register, deposit £10 or more, then place a £10 single cash bet at odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on any sports market (excluding Virtuals). Once the qualifying bet settles you get £30 in Free Bets (3 x £10) — the qualifying bet can win or lose. Free Bets are valid on any sports market excluding Virtuals, expire in 7 days, are non-withdrawable and must be used in full. Excluded deposit methods apply (including PayPal, Apple Pay, Skrill and NETELLER). Named bets such as Lucky 15 do not qualify. If you cash out the qualifying bet, or it is voided, you are no longer eligible for the offer. Ends 31.12.26. Full T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. 18+. Full T&Cs.
Promo code BET40GET20. New UK customers, 18+. Register with the code and place a first bet of £40 or more at Evens (2.0) or greater. Receive 2 × £10 free bets: the first credited automatically once the qualifying bet settles, the second 24 hours later. Free bets must be placed at minimum odds of 4/1 (5.0), expire 24 hours after credit, and the free-bet stake is not returned with winnings. Debit card deposits only. Take Time to Think. BeGambleAware.org. 18+. T&Cs apply. Full T&Cs.
50% of your first-day net losses refunded as a free bet, capped at £25. New UK customers aged 18+ only. To qualify, deposit and place a first bet of £10 or more on any sport at minimum odds of evens (2.00), then place at least two further bets on different events, each worth at least 50% of your largest bet, all at evens (2.00) or greater. Losses are counted from your first settled bet until 23:59 the same day. Place a qualifying £10+ bet and you are guaranteed at least a £5 free bet. Bets placed at SP, void bets, cashed-out bets and bets struck with free bets do not count towards the offer. The free bet is credited the day after your qualifying bets settle and must be used within 7 days, after which it expires. It can be used at odds from 1/4 (1.25) up to 250/1 on singles and straight accumulators, but not on Trixie, Patent or Yankee style multiples. Free-bet stake is not returned with winnings. One offer per person, household, address, IP address and device. E-wallet deposits may not qualify, so check the cashier before depositing. Customers registered with GAMSTOP cannot claim. KYC identity verification must be completed before the free bet is credited. Take Time to Think. BeGambleAware.org. 18+. T&Cs apply. Full T&Cs.
New customers, 18+. Choose the sports bonus at sign-up, make a first deposit and receive a 100% bonus up to £50 in your Sports Bonus balance. To convert the bonus to cash, wager it 10x within 30 days. Single bets below Evens (2.00) do not qualify; accumulators do not qualify if any selection is below 1/2 (1.50). Virtual Sports, voided, cancelled, drawn, cashed-out and free-bet wagers do not count towards wagering. Only the first settled bet per event counts. Withdrawing before the wagering requirement is met forfeits the bonus balance including bonus winnings. Real-money funds are used before bonus funds. Deposits via Skrill or Neteller are not eligible. Not valid in conjunction with other promotions. Odds, bet and payment limits apply. 10bet general and promotion T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org. 18+. Full T&Cs.
New customers in Great Britain and Republic of Ireland, 18+. Place a £10 fixed-odds qualifying bet at minimum odds of 1/2 (1.50) — single or each-way (only the win part counts), pre-event or in-play, not cashed out early, within 28 days of opening the account. Receive £60 in bonuses credited over three days: 3 × £10 fixed-odds free bets (the first on settlement, then 24 and 48 hours later) plus 3 × £5 Total Goals FOOTBALL spread bets, 3 × £5 racing Winning Favourites spread bets and a £1 racing Race Index spread bet (the spread bets need a full spread-betting account). Free-bet stakes not returned with winnings; free bets valid 28 days from issue. IMPORTANT: the £5 credits are SPREAD bets — sports spread betting carries the risk that losses can exceed your stake. Sports spread-betting customers do not have Financial Ombudsman or FSCS recourse. Take Time to Think. BeGambleAware.org. 18+. T&Cs apply. Full T&Cs.
Promo code WELCOME15, entered under My Bonuses after registering. New UK customers, 18+. Place a first qualifying bet of at least £10 from your cash balance at odds of evens (2.0) or greater within 7 days of opening the account. Once the qualifying bet fully settles you receive £15 in free bets, credited as 3 x £5 tokens with set uses: one £5 accumulator free bet (minimum 4 legs, each leg at 2/5 or bigger), one £5 sports free bet (any market at evens or bigger) and one £5 Sub Cover free bet (selected football player markets at evens or bigger). Free-bet stakes are not returned with winnings. Free bets expire 7 days after they are credited. Void, cashed-out and partially cashed-out bets do not qualify. One offer per customer. Confirm the current terms on BetGoodwin's own welcome-offer page before claiming. Take Time to Think. BeGambleAware.org. 18+. T&Cs apply. Full T&Cs.
New UK customers, 18+. Minimum deposit £10. Place a £10 qualifying single at minimum odds of 1/2 (1.50), settled within 14 days. Receive £30 in free bets (stake not returned), split £20 for sportsbook use (2 x £10) and £10 for Bet Builder only (2 x £5); Bet Builder does not cover horse racing. Free bets must be accepted within 7 days and expire 7 days after acceptance. No promo code required. Best Odds Guaranteed on UK & Irish racing, subject to having staked over £25 in the previous seven days. Operated by LiveScore Betting and Gaming (Gibraltar) Ltd, UKGC 56859. Confirm the current terms on LiveScore Bet's own promotions page before claiming. Take Time to Think. BeGambleAware.org. 18+. T&Cs apply. Full T&Cs.
18+. BeGambleAware.org
Coolmore and Wathnan / Appleby — 48-hour declarations confirmed
Coolmore (Aidan O'Brien) — four declared, going for four-in-a-row
Aidan O'Brien is bidding for a fourth consecutive Epsom Derby after Auguste Rodin (2023), City Of Troy (2024) and Lambourn (2025). The Tuesday TBC has resolved into a confirmed four-strong Ballydoyle hand at the 48-hour declarations, the deepest Coolmore Derby team since 2024 [Racing Post, 4 June; TDN].
Confirmed declared runners (Thursday 4 June, 48-hour stage):
- Benvenuto Cellini (2/1F) — stall 12, Ryan Moore retains the ride. The Moore booking is the strongest single confidence signal Coolmore can give. Stall 12 is squarely inside the historically productive 7-14 band. The Chester Vase winner by 4¼L is the Coolmore-stated Derby lead and the market has tightened in line with that ranking. See our Chester Vase 2026 result for the trial form line.
- Pierre Bonnard (6/1) — stall 8, Christophe Soumillon booked. The Frankel colt was the original 6/1 winter favourite, drifted to 33/1 after two beaten reappearances, and tightened back to a single-figure price this week as the Coolmore commitment firmed up. The Soumillon booking — a Group 1 specialist with three Derby rides on his record — confirms the colt is a serious second-string rather than a paceman. The Tuesday not confirmed at declaration tag has resolved: Coolmore go four-handed.
- Ancient Egypt — stall 10, runs in Amo Racing colours. The Amo Racing tie-up with Coolmore-trained horses is a recent development; Ancient Egypt is the Amo-coloured Ballydoyle contender at Epsom. not confirmed
- Balzac — Coolmore's fourth declaration. not confirmed
Trainer signal — what the four-handed declaration tells us. A four-strong Coolmore Derby team is not unusual in deep years (2024 ran three, 2025 ran two) but the Pierre Bonnard plus Soumillon plus single-figure price combination is the strongest indication yet that Ballydoyle rate the colt as a live winner rather than a pacemaker. Moore on Benvenuto Cellini, Soumillon on Pierre Bonnard, with Lordan and a TBC stable jockey covering Ancient Egypt and Balzac, is the cleanest possible jockey allocation hierarchy.
Wathnan Racing / Godolphin (Charlie Appleby) — confirmed at 48-hour stage
The 2026 Charlie Appleby Derby team is moderate by Godolphin's modern standards — the post-Adayar / Masar Derby depth is not on the same scale this year, and Appleby's strongest 3yo profile is being routed toward Royal Ascot [Racing Post, 4 June; Irish Field].
Confirmed declared at 48-hour stage:
- Al Zanati (16/1-20/1) — Sandown Classic Trial 2nd behind Raaheeb on 18 April. The Cracksman colt is Appleby's clearest Derby-route entry; Wathnan colours have appeared on his board at major firms since the Sandown run. not confirmed
- King's Trail (20/1-25/1) — Dante 4th at York, in the slipstream of the Coolmore quartet plus Item. The Frankel half-brother carries the Charlie Appleby ground-flexibility but the trial form line is third-class. not confirmed
Not declared at Epsom this year:
- Distant Storm (Appleby / Buick) — the Newmarket 2000G 3rd is being prepared for the Royal Ascot St James's Palace Stakes on Tuesday 16 June, with Appleby keeping Distant Storm on the 1m route per the Irish Field.
- Precise (Coolmore Oaks #1 trial winner at Curragh) — scratched by Aidan O'Brien on ground concerns, with soft-ground risk over the weekend cited as the deciding factor [Racing Post, 4 June]. A material removal from the Oaks but not the Derby.
- Hawk Mountain (Coolmore reserve) — confirmed out after his beaten 8th in the Prix du Jockey Club on Sunday 31 May.
For the head-to-head between the two market leaders see our Benvenuto Cellini vs Item Derby 2026 head-to-head. For the broader trial form lines see our Dante to Derby 2026 trends piece.
Epsom going report and weekend weather — Thursday 4 June
Thursday morning baseline
Epsom Downs Thursday 4 June official going report: Good, Good-to-Soft in places [Epsom-Races.com going updates, verified 4 June]. Going-stick reading at the Tuesday 2 June walk: 6.6 — a notable drop from the late-May baseline after approximately 20mm of overnight rain through Monday into Tuesday materially changed the surface profile.
Clerk of the Course Andrew Cooper updated on Tuesday 2 June: 'the predominant feel I'm getting while I've walked so far is good to soft, but I wouldn't call it any worse than that. A lot of it seems to me on the better side of good to soft.' Cooper has paused all watering — there has been no irrigation since Saturday 30 May — and is now managing moisture out of the surface rather than adding to it. Cooper's pre-rain comment on Tuesday morning was that the course was 'ready for something'; the something arrived overnight [Racing Post, 4 June; Epsom-Races.com going report 2 June].
Surrey weather outlook — Thursday through Saturday
| Day | Forecast | Likely impact on going |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 4 June | Unsettled, showery PM | No watering, monitoring drying rate |
| Fri 5 June (Oaks day) | Fine and dry, light winds | Surface dries back; Oaks-day going firms slightly |
| Sat 6 June (Derby day) | Rain may return AM, mixed PM | Forecast Derby-day going: Good, Good to Soft in places — Soft in places not yet ruled out |
[Forecast sources: Met Office Surrey 5-day outlook + BBC Weather Epsom KT18, both verified 4 June. Watering plans per Cooper's Tuesday 2 June statement.]
What the going profile means for the named runners
The 20mm of overnight rain has shifted the going profile from the Tuesday Good baseline to a Good / Good-to-Soft mix, with Soft in places not yet ruled out for Saturday if the forecast Saturday-AM rain band arrives.
Ground-line summary at Thursday lunchtime:
- Benvenuto Cellini (Frankel, stall 12) — Good or Good-Soft both fit; Chester Vase win was on Good-Soft. Soft would not be a positive.
- Item (Frankel, stall 3) — Good or Good-Soft both fit; Dante win was on Good-Soft. Soft would not be a positive.
- Pierre Bonnard (Frankel, stall 8) — Good-to-firm preferred; Good-Soft is acceptable but Soft would be a clear negative on form line.
- Ancient Egypt (stall 10) — not confirmed.
Soft-ground risk and the Precise scratch
The clearest editorial line from the going profile this week is the Precise scratch from Friday's Oaks: Aidan O'Brien removed the Curragh Pretty Polly Trial winner on ground concerns, citing soft-ground risk over the weekend [Racing Post, 4 June]. The same risk has not yet triggered a Derby scratch but it is the single most-watched variable into Friday morning.
Cooper marked 30 years as Epsom Clerk of the Course in June 2025 and his watering philosophy has been consistent: maintain Good rather than soften, water in the evening rather than during the day, and respond to forecast rain by pausing irrigation rather than chasing the going [Epsom-Races.com archive]. The 2026 pattern is now a textbook Cooper response to a wet build-up. Good to Soft is the most likely Saturday going by a clear margin, with Soft the second-most-likely outcome if Saturday-AM rain materialises.
This tracker will refresh the going report and the watering update on Friday morning after the 24-hour declarations. The Friday Oaks card itself is the cleanest single read on Saturday's conditions.
What to watch — Friday and Saturday
The 48-hour declarations have landed, the field is 14, the stalls draw is out and the market has tightened on Benvenuto Cellini. The Friday-and-Saturday agenda is now the final-stage agenda — the supporting Friday card, the 24-hour declarations, and the Saturday race-morning reads [Racing Post, 4 June].
Friday 5 June — 24-hour declarations, Oaks day and Coronation Cup
Friday is the day everything locks in. 24-hour declarations close around 10am, the supporting Friday card runs the Coronation Cup (G1, 1m4f) and the Epsom Oaks (G1, 1m4f6y, 3yo fillies) — both run on essentially the same configuration as the Derby and both provide a first live read on the Saturday going.
Friday morning agenda:
- 24-hour declarations (10am): final non-runner check. Any late ground-related scratches land here. The Precise removal from the Oaks on Thursday is the precedent — soft-ground concerns may produce one or two further weekend scratches.
- Cooper going report (early Friday): the cleanest single line on race-day conditions. A morning of fine, dry weather should firm the surface back from Thursday's wetter reading.
- Oaks at 16:00 BST: the Oaks 2026 preview and the Oaks tips cover the fillies' classic; the winning time and run style are the most-watched form line of the day.
- Coronation Cup: the older-horse 1m4f read on Epsom configuration — pace and finishing time map straight onto the Derby.
Saturday 6 June — race-morning agenda
Off-time 16:00 BST. ITV1 / ITVX live, Racing TV Player paid, bookmaker streams free with a placed bet. Race-morning going-stick reading and any race-day non-runners land at approximately 8am [Epsom-Races.com].
Stalls draw — what is already locked:
- Benvenuto Cellini stall 12 — squarely inside the historically productive 7-14 band. A clean tactical draw.
- Item stall 3 — outside the most-barren stalls (1, 2, 11, 16) but a low draw at Epsom is a meaningful tactical complication around the camber turn.
- Pierre Bonnard stall 8 — central, ground-flexible.
- Ancient Egypt stall 10 — mid-pack, identical to Lambourn's winning 2025 draw.
For the race-day verdict and tips see our Epsom Derby 2026 tips, the Epsom Derby 2026 Saturday preview, the Epsom Derby 2026 trends and stats, the Benvenuto Cellini vs Item head-to-head and the Epsom Derby 2026 dress code guide.
Where to bet for Derby week
Compare welcome offers, place terms and Best Odds Guaranteed coverage across the operators worth using for the Derby:
- Best free bet offers for horse racing
- Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers
- Best cash-out bookmakers
- Best ante-post betting sites
Specialist racing operator — Star Sports. Star Sports has racecourse pitches at Epsom for both days of the Derby Festival. Best Odds Guaranteed was withdrawn in December 2024; value at the firm now comes through curated Star Boosts, selective race-day money-back specials and the on-course presence.
Star Sports — Derby week
Boutique on-course independent at Epsom for both days. Star Boosts + selective race-day money-back.
Bet £10 Get £50 in Free Bets — code BETFRED50
Promo code BETFRED50. New customers only. Register, deposit with a Debit Card, and place a first bet of £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports, to be settled within 7 days, to get £30 in Sports Free Bets and £20 in Bet Builder Free Bets within 24 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. Take Time to Think. BeGambleAware.org. 18+.
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets — code R30
Promo code R30. New UK customers only, 18+. Register, deposit £10 or more, then place a £10 single cash bet at odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on any sports market (excluding Virtuals). Once the qualifying bet settles you get £30 in Free Bets (3 x £10) — the qualifying bet can win or lose. Free Bets are valid on any sports market excluding Virtuals, expire in 7 days, are non-withdrawable and must be used in full. Excluded deposit methods apply (including PayPal, Apple Pay, Skrill and NETELLER). Named bets such as Lucky 15 do not qualify. If you cash out the qualifying bet, or it is voided, you are no longer eligible for the offer. Ends 31.12.26. Full T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. 18+.
Bet £40 Get £20 in Free Bets — code BET40GET20
Promo code BET40GET20. New UK customers, 18+. Register with the code and place a first bet of £40 or more at Evens (2.0) or greater. Receive 2 × £10 free bets: the first credited automatically once the qualifying bet settles, the second 24 hours later. Free bets must be placed at minimum odds of 4/1 (5.0), expire 24 hours after credit, and the free-bet stake is not returned with winnings. Debit card deposits only. Take Time to Think. BeGambleAware.org. 18+. T&Cs apply.
18+. T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org
Responsible note. This tracker is a live build-up piece — prices and going move daily. No model or trend system reliably beats efficient bookmaker prices; see our in-house AI horse racing model write-up. Each-way bets are the smarter choice in a 14-runner Derby field. Bet only money you can afford to lose, set limits, BeGambleAware.org.
Share this article
Work it out & learn the basics
Gamble Responsibly
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way to make money. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help and support is available.